This Week in Alberta - The Liberals Pick a Leader

It will be a busy fall politically, with provincial elections in Ontario, Saskatchewan, PEI, Newfoundland, and Manitoba. Although we likely won't see an Alberta vote until 2012, the province will get a new Premier, thanks to Ed Stelmach's surprise resignation in January. The first round of voting takes place on September 17th, and assuming no one gets the coveted 50% + 1, the three finalists will square off in a steer wrassling contest on October 1st to determine the winner.

Alberta's official opposition also finds itself in a leadership contest, with the winner being crowned tomorrow from the following list of candidates:

Laurie Blakeman: website, profile
Bill Harvey: website, profile
Hugh MacDonald: website, profile
Bruce Payne: website, profile
Raj Sherman: website, profile

The announcement likely won't get a ton of media coverage - after all, if media reports are to be believed, former PC MLA Raj Sherman is heading for an easy first ballot victory. And let's be honest, Alberta Liberal leadership contests usually turn out to be about as important in the scheme of things as Bloc Quebecois nomination meetings in Mount Royal.

But I'll still be watching the results tomorrow with interest, for a few reasons:

1. Despite the high number of supporters Sherman signed up, it remains to be seen how many will actually vote and how many will actually vote for him. Wednesday's bizarre tweet from Sherman only confirms this:


2. This is the first trial run of a primary-style "supporter system" in Canada, so politicos will be watching to see how many supporters actually take the time to vote. The Alberta Grits drew 4,500 votes when they picked a leader in 2008 - if they can triple that number, support for the system could pick up outside Alberta.

3. With Craig Chandler's ultra-Conservative PGIB backing Bill Harvey, the supporter system is getting a real test on just how "takeover proof" it is. If Harvey wins or comes close to the top, federal grits wouldn't dream of touching the system for at least a decade.

4. The ALP caucus is notorious for internal feuds, so it will be interesting to see whether or not the defeated candidates take their loss in stride. Hugh MacDonald has already raised doubts about the supporter list (without offering any proof) - if the defeated can't rally behind the winner, they might all find themselves out of work a year from now.

5. Finally, although a Liberal victory in Alberta seems far fetched, fanciful, ridiculous, or any synonym of your choosing, with the divided right the Alberta Liberals will be relevant in the next election. Their level of relevancy remains to be seen, but in an unpredictable election that might very well result in a minority government, it would be foolish not to pay attention to a party almost certain to pick up 20% to 30% of the vote.

I can't say I have a horse in this race. All five candidates bring their own unique set of skills and liabilities to the table. But I'll certainly be watching the result with interest tomorrow.

ALP Leadership Candidate Profiles: Hugh Can Do It

The Alberta Liberals will be selecting a new leader on September 10th, from among 5 candidates: Laurie Blakeman, Hugh MacDonald, Raj Sherman, Bruce Payne, and Bill Harvey.

Today, the third part of a series profiling the candidates. (Previously: Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman)


HUGH MACDONALD



Background: First elected in 1997, Hugh has been the Alberta Liberal Party's Ted Kennedy in recent years - unabashedly Liberal and unafraid to speak out. As Hugh's bio points out, he has a perfect legislature attendance record during this time period, something Jack Layton would no doubt be proud of.

Prior to entering politics, MacDonald worked in the oil and gas industry.

Video: My interview with Hugh from May.



Online: MacDonald's online presence is relatively modest, with around 140 Twitter followers, 60 Facebook likes (and 580 friends), and a bare bones website.

Can he win? Early on I discounted MacDonald as a 4th or 5th place finisher in this contest, feeling he didn't have the organization in place to sign up many new members. But people I've talked to have been impressed with his campaign, and I'd guess his supporters, the staunchest of Liberals, will be the most likely to vote.

He has establishment support from the likes of Nick Taylor, Ken Nicol, and Debby Carlson, and his fiercely Liberal reputation may appeal to members who are worried about an outsider coming in. I doubt he'll win, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him as high as second.

My Take: I've never really visualized MacDonald as a future ALP leader. I've always found him a bit too "scandal-obsessed" and he has a tendency to go off on weird tangents - at May's leadership forum, he made putting the constituency name on party membership forms his flagship leadership plank. Maybe it's a good idea, but it's not exactly "Yes We Can" stuff.

That said, the more I think about it, the more I like the idea of MacDonald as the leader. He is, hands down, the best speaker in this field, and a bushy haired Maritimer from the oil industry would help break the party's "university professor" imagine. MacDonald would fire up party loyalists, and his soundbyte attack dog style could help the ALP earn back some of the headlines they've lost to the Wildrose.

This Week in Alberta - Liberal Leadership

After a look at the PC leadership contenders last week, I turn to the Liberal field.

The last three Liberal leaders have all come from within caucus, so any conversation about the next leader should start there.

Despite initially musing about running for the Liberal or Alberta Party leadership, Laurie Blakeman is this contest's first declared candidate. Blakeman is a polished and seasoned politician; she is probably the most "job ready" of the candidates, which is an important consideration with the next election around the corner. Blakeman would solidify the party's base, especially in Edmonton, but does have a reputation for being a bit to the left, despite where she places the Liberal fruit in this video:



Former PEIslander and current mustache enthusiast Hugh MacDonald also appears likely to run. MacDonald would bring a lot to the table - he has 14 years of experience in the legislature, and spent 20 years in the petroleum industry prior to that. Although he sometimes gets carried away with his pet issues, MacDonald is likely the Liberal MLA most able to connect to average Albertans. Most importantly, he's got fire in his belly and is fiercely Liberal, at a time when the troops need rallying.

Down in Calgary, Kent Hehr is the other name often mentioned as a possible candidate. I profiled Kent during his aborted run for mayor last summer. As I said then, the man is incredibly likable - he also strikes me as the caucus member most able to expand the Liberals beyond their base and cut down the Alberta Party in its tracks.

All three bring something to the table, but none of them jump out at you as a premier-in-waiting. And remember, for various reasons all three passed on the job three years ago.

So the real question is whether any outsiders will toss their hat into the ring. While you hate to throw a rookie in with the election a year away, a lot of Liberals will certainly be looking to shake up a party in need of a shake up.

To date, there hasn't been a lot of chatter about potential "outsider" candidates. Rick Miller has reportedly said he won't run. Dave Bronconnier, quite obviously, won't. Likely Calgary Varsity candidate Bruce Payne sounds like a long shot. There are rumblings about Karyn Decore, but that's probably just because of her last name.

So, with no obvious outsider candidate, who should jump in? Here's my wish list:

1. Someone with passion and energy: The PCs have healthy riding associations across the province and a donation pipeline flowing steadily from big business. The Liberals do not. Because of this, the Liberal leader's job description includes organizational tasks that will have him or her cris-crossing the province every week. They need someone willing and able to put the time in.

2. Someone who connects with Albertans: They don't need to write a cheesy theme song or look good in a cowboy hat. But the Liberals need someone who's able to relate to the problems facing Albertans.

3. A good communicator: Ed Stelmach could succeed despite being one of the worst communicators in modern political history because he was backed by a powerful political machine. With the Alberta media still suffering from Danielle-mania, the Liberals will need to fight to get their message out next campaign - they'll need someone able to deliver a clear narrative and sound good doing it.

4. Someone with political smarts: Or at the very least, someone willing to take advice from people who know what they're talking about. With the next election a year out, there's not a lot of time to learn on the job and there's very little room for mistakes.

5. Someone who can manage the ALP caucus and bring the party together: It's no secret the ALP caucus is as dysfunctional as the Jersey Shore household. The last thing the party needs is another Dave Taylor situation. Throw in the defection of many long time volunteers to the Alberta Party, and the biggest challenge of the next leader may be motivating and uniting the party.


Does such a person exist? Beats me. Probably.

The more relevant question is if such a person is willing to take on the leadership of a party in turmoil, with an election just around the corner.