Fun with Numbers: The Conservatives

Last month, I looked at ridings where the Liberals exceeded expectations. Today, a look at ridings where the Tories did better than we would have thought given what was going on around them. If you're confused about what the numbers in brackets mean, check out my first post on this topic. I'm not saying it will end your confusion, but it may.

1. Cumberland Colchester (+33 percentage points above expected): Bill Casey wiped the floor clean of everyone in 2008 as an independent. And since this exercise uses 2008 as the baseline, it's only natural this riding would rise to the top. Let's consider it an aberation and move on.

2. Labrador (+20): Canada's new minister of intergovernmental affairs likely pulled off the most remarkable victory in the country on May 2nd. In 2008, Todd Russell won the riding for the Liberals with 70% - the CPC were a distant third at 8%. And yet, on election night, Peter Penashue emerged triumphant. Even when we factor in the Tory jump in Newfoundland, this riding stands out as one of the most astounding election night results.

3. Nunavut (+14): Seat projections and strategic voting sites had this riding as a 3-way race...in the end, Leona Aglukkaq increased her 2008 level of support by 15 points.

4. Vaughan (+13): This one isn't a surprise given the by election. I'd argue Lamoureux's hold was more impressive, but Fantino still built upon his by election success, earning 56% of the vote.

5. Montmagny-L'islet-yada yada (+11): This was a rare seat in Quebec where the Conservative vote actually increased from 2008 but, once again, the results are somewhat deceiving since the Tories picked it up in a 2009 by election. Clearly by election results will need to be factored in if this methodology is ever refined.

6. Megantic-L'Erable (+8): Christian Paradis not only survived, but increased his vote from 2008.

7. Mount Royal (+8): It's no secret the Tories were targeting the Jewish population in Mount Royal, and they appear to have had some success at it. Of note, Mount Royal was number 12 on this same list in 2008, so this wasn't a one-time fluke - they're making sustained inroads.

8. Roberval-Lac Saint Jean (+8): Like Paradis, Denis Lebel managed to keep his head above the orange wave.

9. Timmins-James Bay (+8): Although the riding stayed orange, Conservative support jumped 14 points there.

10. Esquimalt Juan De Fuca (+7): Not surprising given the retirement of Keith Martin.


Other Notables: Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Sydney-Victoria, Miramichi, Mississauga-Brampton South, Egmont, York Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Saint John, Richmond

In the news

No, I haven't joined Gordon Campbell, Jim Prentice, Danny Williams, and Carole James in retirement. Rather, I've been off on vacation for the past week, so here's a few quick hits on what I've missed:


1) On my by election numbers post, I said there's no evidence of a long term decline in by election turnout. Turns out that's not really true.


2) Welcome to the circus otherwise known as Rob Ford's mayoralty.

Newly elected politicians will often try to expand their tent, moderate their message, and reach out to those who voted against them. Not Rob Ford.

But hey, Ford was elected with 50% of the vote. Those who dislike him, dislike him a lot. So why change? Expect Ford to be Ford for the next four years - and if he keeps his base happy, he should be able to pick up a second term.



3) Julian Fantino's muzzle has been removed...and the first thing out of his mouth is comparing the Liberal Party to Hitler.

On their first day in Ottawa, all new MPs should be given an instruction booklet that tells them where the bathrooms are, reminds them not to lose their briefing books when sleeping over at residences frequented by the Hells Angels, and implores them to not compare their opponents to Hitler.


4) Speaking of Fantino, Ottawa is abuzz over Cabinet shuffle speculation. My sense is Fantino will get a spot - he's a star candidate in a riding the Tories want desperately to hold, after all. But given his raw and untested political skills (see above), I predict he'll get eased into a junior portfolio.


5) With a flury of polls out, I'll be sure to update my Poll Soup and Seat Projections sometime over the next week. For now, I'll say that the "shocking" Star headline of "Liberals need a new leader, poll suggests" is rather un-shocking when you get down to it. These sort of polls come out all the time - there was a Decima survey last month that showed half of Canadians want Stephen Harper replaced as Conservative leader.

If Liberal members want Ignatieff gone, that's a problem. If his MPs do, that's a problem. But when people who won't vote for him or his replacement want something new...that's just politics.

By Election Numbers II

Even though everyone (myself included) loves to compare by election results to the last election, by elections are not general elections. As such, the more useful comparison is to other by elections.

With that in mind, let's dive in to the numbers from this last round of by elections.


Turnout

Turnout was 32.4% in Vaughan, 30.8% in Winnipeg North, and 26.9% in Dauphin, for an overall average of 30%. This is comparable to the 31.1% we saw in the last round of by elections and slughtly below the average of 34.2% we've seen since 1998 - 34.2% is also the average by election turnout in the Harper era so, despite lackluster excitement in the last two rounds of by elections, there's not strong evidence of a long term decline in by election turnout.

Party Performances

Looking specifically at the 17 by elections during the Harper era, here's how the parties have performed, on average, relative to the previous election:

CPC: +5.5% (+3.6% if you exlude the Bill Casey by election)
NDP: +0.6%
Lib: -0.1%
Bloc: -2.9%
Green: +1.1% (due almost exclusively to London North Centre)

So, the Bloc have had a rough ride, and the Tories have tended to over perform their previous election results. Feel free to toss out your own theory why that is.

I think a lot of it comes down to the Tories' superior ground game but, above all else, it's likely due to the fact that every by election, except Dauphin, has been in an opposition-held riding. Since 2004, the "incumbent" party has dropped an average of 5.3% in by elections. Which makes sense, given they're the ones losing the incumbent...and quite often, a long serving or popular incumbent.

A good test to this theory will be in the next round of by elections, when Jim Prentice's and Jay Hill's seats open up. I'd expect the Tory vote to drop noticeably in both these ridings should they go to by election.


Vaughan & Winnipeg North

The Conservatives picked up 15 points in Vaughan - no small feat, but far from extra ordinary. It's the 7th biggest jump in a Harper era by election...and we're only talking about 17 in total.

Winnipeg North has been overshadowed by Vaughan in the post-election media reaction, despite it being a far more remarkable story. Kevin Lamoureux saw a 5-fold increase in his share of the popular vote, for an increase of over 37 percentage points. That breaks (by a fraction of a percentage) the Harper era record - but that was in Cumberland Colchester after Bill Casey resigned, hardly a fair comparison. The next highest gain had been 30 points, by Thomas Mulcair in Outremont.

So what does the future holds for Misters Fantino and Lamoureux? Well, as fun as last night was, they might want to hold off on calling an Ottawa-area real estate agent. In by elections held between the 2006 and 2008 elections, five candidate saw a double digit gain in their vote. In these 5 instances, the average by election gain was 20 points - but they lost an average of 10 points in the next election. Even Mulcair saw his vote share fall 8 points in the general election.

Lamoureux and Fantino both squeaked in by slim margins - if they wind up giving back half their gains the next time we go to the polls, they'll both be out of work.

Battleground Vaughan

Three ridings will elect new MPs tomorrow, but all eyes are on Vaughan. Yeah, in the scheme of things one seat won't change anything in Ottawa, but this one has been hyped to the point where the outcome will certainly define the media narrative for the remainder of 2010.

As such, the Liberals are running ads on TV - my Italian vocabulary doesn't extend past pasta dishes but, from the planes buzzing around Harper's head and the price tags flashing on screen, it's safe to classify this as an attack ad.



The Liberals have also put out a video with Justin Trudeau (sporting his Movember stach) slagging Fantino over past comments he's made about the Charter.

Of course, this is now and the Tories are alleging the Liberals thought a lot more of Fantino back when they were courting him to run. This really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone - Fantino is a star candidate, and few can resist the siren's call of a star.

Which is why Fantino's disappearing act is so perplexing. Maybe the Tories are confident they have it in the bag. Maybe they're worried about what he'll say. Maybe he's not as impressive in the flesh as on a pamphlet. But for whatever reason, it's certainly counter intuitive to hide your best asset - after all, if the Tories take this riding they haven't held for 22 years, it won't be because of the Conservative brand, it will be because of the candidate.

But even if Fantino is nowhere to be seen, there are stars to be found. Don Cherry has endorsed Fantino, and high profile MPs have dropped in for all parties - I was out canvassing yesterday and saw both Martha Hall Findlay and Gerard Kennedy in the Genco campaign office.

So tune in tomorrow night - it's gonna be a close one. I won't even try to make a prediction because it could very much go either way.


UPDATE: I still think it's too close to call, but those always reliable "anonynous Liberals strategists" have already admited defeat.

Julian Fantino's Greatest Hits

Over on his blog, Stephen Taylor takes a few shots at the grits by election candidate in Vaughan, Tony Genco. Here's a summary of Taylor's damning criticism:

1. Genco doesn't mention Ignatieff in his brochure. "Is Genco relying more on the Liberal brand which is likely polling higher than the Ignatieff brand in Vaughan??" asks Taylor.

2. Genco tagged a twitter post on Ken Dryden with a #MapleLeafs hash tag.

3. Genco tweeted that 1200 people were at his kick-off rally on Thursday, whereas a local paper pegged the number at 250.

Ouch. I tell ya, we're getting into busty hookers and cocaine territory on the scandal-meter. Incorrect Twitter tags! Exaggerated figures from a rally! Next thing you know, we'll find out Genco booked too small a room for an event so that the crowd would look bigger than it was! Scandal!

But...here's the thing. Even Taylor's trivial accusations are plain wrong.

First off, point 1 - Genco isn't mentioning Iggy. Well, take a look at Fantino's brochure. No matter how hard you look, there are two people you won't find in it - Waldo, and Stephen Harper.



Point 2, hashtaggate - Genco hash tagged #MapleLeafs on a tweet about Ken Dryden. As I'm sure Stephen Harper's hockey book will mention, Dryden was Leafs president for 7 years.

Finally, point 3 - that Genco over estimated a crowd at his rally. Well, the Vaughan Citizen reported 1000 people at the rally. And Glenn Beck reported 45,000 were there to cheer on Genco. So, all in all, an estimate of 1200 isn't preposterous.




UPDATE: Taylor responds. Harper does appear on some Tory campaign literature...though he's not really any more prominent than Gilles Duceppe.

By Elections

In case you missed it, a trio of by elections were called last weekend.


1. Vaughan: Mayor Maurizio has won this riding easily in recent years, and defeated Richard Lorello 49% to 34% in 2008.

My seat projection system gives the Liberals a 91.4% chance to hold Vaughan during a general election, but this is a by election - a by election featuring a legitimate star candidate in Julian Fantino. Yes, I know the term "star candidate" gets used to describe anyone who has ever run for student council, had an op ed published in their local paper, or appeared as an extra on Road to Avonlea, but Fantino is legit. He's a former OPP Commissioner and Toronto Chief of Police, and is well respected in Vaughan. He's someone Stephen Harper would dearly love to have at his side when talking about Conservative "tough on crime" policies.

Taking on Fantino will be Liberal candidate Tony Genco, the former CEO and President of Downsview Park (a site that hosted both the Pope and the Rolling Stones...sadly not at the same time).

This has the makings of a good fight, with the Tories likely the slight favourites.


Winnipeg North: This seat was formerly held by Judy Wasylycia-Leis, the name that everyone loves to say three times real fast.

Trying to fill Judy's shoes for the orange will be educator Kevin Chief.

Chief's chief competition will come from Liberal nominee Kevin Lamoureux, a man who makes up 50% of the provincial Liberal caucus in Manitoba. Also in the mix is Tory candidate Ray Larkin who was defeated by Wasylycia-Leis 63% to 22% in the last general election Julie Javier.

The projection model gives the NDP a 96.4% chance at holding the seat, with the Tories at 3.5% and the Liberals 0.2% longshots. Again, that's for a general election and anything can happen in a by election.


Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette: This has been Inky Mark territory since 1997. Like Judy, Mark gave up the glories of life on the back benches for municipal politics and, like Judy, he went down in defeat on Wednesday.

Mark won the last election by 45 percentage points and my seat projector has the Tories at a 100% chance of holding it in a general election. So, to put it mildly, the challengers have their work cut out for them. Especially since neither the Liberals nor the NDP have nominated a challenger as of yet.

The Tory candidate is Robert Sopuck, who "has earned a solid reputation as an outspoken advocate for Manitoba’s rural communities". If elected, Sopuck would help the Tories cut into the NDP's long standing facial hair dominance in parliament.

News & Notes

1. Julian Fantino will be the Tory candidate in the upcoming Vaughan by election. As for when that will occur, Pundits Guide speculates that the 5 upcoming by elections will be called for a December 13th vote.

So how will the Vaughan by election go? Well, in my updated Seat Projections (to be posted tomorrow morning), I peg the riding at a 91% chance of going Liberal and 9% of going Tory if a general election were held today. But let's remember, by elections have a life of their own, and Fantino is a legit star candidate, so you almost have to handicap the Tories as slight favourites in this one.


2. The Globe and Mail applauds Ignatieff's Family Care policy (as do these people).


3. The Ontario PCs have launched pre-election ads.


4. Canada has lost its bid for a seat on the UN Security council. And the Tories have found a way to blame this one on Michael Ignatieff - huh. Let's all be grateful Canada won Olympic hockey gold this year, or else I'm sure that loss would have been Ignatieff's fault too.

Either way, I don't see this as a big vote turner. Foreign policy rarely is. But it's still an embarrassment for Harper, no matter how you spin it.


5. Speaking of embarrassments, a video of Rob Ford in action. (hat tip - Kinsella)

The yet to be named Tory race to replace Tory

The Ontario PCs will select a new leader on June 27th.

There's more sniffing going on in this Tory leadership race than at an Andre Boisclair house party, with everyone and their wife sniffing around to gauge the lay of the land. I'll admit that my understanding of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party is minimal - I know Mike Harris used to be Premier, that Ernie Eves delivered his budget in an auto plant a few years ago, and that John Tory doesn't have a seat...that's about it. So don't expect a lot of insightful coverage of the race from this blog. With that in mind, here's my un-insightful look at the field so far.

Diane Finley: For those of you unfamiliar with her (I'm looking at you, everyone), she's married to Harper strategist Doug Finlay, and wears sunglasses [UPDATE: used to!] in the House of Commons. Finley has been relatively untouched by scandal and charges of incompetence, making her one of Stephen Harper's better ministers.

Peter Van Loan: Based on my limited knowledge of the field, PVL would be my early pick as their "best choice". He'd bring the fire, has experienced, and scores fairly low on the "scary scale". Seeing him go head to head with "the small man of confederation" would be a lot of fun too.

Tim Hudak: Tim is the frontrunner in this race, which means that he pretty much has it in the bag, right? All I really know about the man is that Mike Harris has endorsed him, and he ran the "Great Dominion Dust Up" bracketed poll on his blog to find Canada's most inspiring politician (sound familiar?) a few years back, that Louis Riel won. Go figure. While no one will mistake Hudak for Canada's most inspiring politician, the real question is whether he's the most inspiring of this bunch, or not.

Tony Clement: Hasn't lost a leadership race recently, so you just know he's itching to once again experience the thrill of defeat.

Christine Elliott: Seems like a solid candidate, although controlling Jim "last place to invest" Flaherty could be a tougher challenge than Hillary had of muzzling Bill.

Randy Hillier: Would be an entertaining addition to the race, in the same way Craig Chandler was an entertaining addition to the 2003 PC leadership race.

Julian Fantino: Currently, Ontario's Provincial Police Commissioner so he'd have to find a seat if he won the leadership. But, hey, how hard could that be?


UPDATE: The Globe lets some PC strategists weigh in on "life after Tory". For the record, I agree with Jaime Watt that running the Harris playbook again would be a big mistake for them. The Tories need to position themselves as a centrist party and then just pound McGuinty into the ground on the economy. The federal Conservatives won Ontario last election, so it shouldn't be too hard for them to figure out where to target their resources and who will be a part of their winning coalition.