Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Liberals Gain More than any Party - Sign of Tory Majority

So says John Ibbitson.

In fairness, this column was probably written before the results came in last night but still - it just underscores why you shouldn't read too much into by elections.

Even after the famed Outremont "disaster", Dion gained seats in Quebec - the only part of the country where that happened. And it's not like Thomas Mulcair led the Orange Revolution across Quebec last election.

There are unique cases when a by election does represent something out of the ordinary - I'd say the Wildrose Alliance win in Calgary last year falls into that category. But, despite the change in vote support, last night was about as ordinary as by elections get. A popular incumbent resigns and their party's share of the vote drops. A star candidate replaces them.

Yawn.

20 Comments:

  • I'm a little less charitable. Ibbitson should have thrown his column in the garbage and started anew, because that was the responsible journalistic thing to do. As it stands, it's just a bizarre indictment where none really exists. Embarrassing really, not to mention lazy.

    By Blogger Steve V, at 9:52 AM  

  • The Liberals lost a Toronto seat to the Conservatives.

    If the Conservatives lost an Alberta seat to a Liberal under any circumstances it would have been considered a disaster for them.

    Is the glass half full or half empty?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:07 AM  

  • If the glass is a sippy cup, does it really matter?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:19 AM  

  • The Conservatives lost a seat in Alberta to the NDP. I did not hear anyone claiming catastrophe then.

    By Blogger Gayle, at 10:24 AM  

  • That is because it wasn't a Liberal win.

    The NDP will never form a government on it's own, so though it hurts the Tories to have lost a seat in Alberta, it hurts less for the Tories to lose it to the NDP who are relatively irrelevant than it does to lose it to the Liberals, who can ill afford to lose any more (like in Vaughan) than they have if they ever want to form a government again.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:33 AM  

  • That's total horseshit anonymous. What did you base that on? Your opinion? Im pretty sure a seat lost is a seat lost.

    By Blogger Gene Rayburn, at 10:51 AM  

  • These by-election results are bad news for Ignatieff, the Liberals and NDP and good news for Harper and the Conservatives. One riding switched from NDP to Liberal. That is NOT a gain for the progressive movement. One riding stayed Conservative - a gain for no one. And one riding switched from Liberal to Conservative. That is a LOSS for the progressive movement. Perhaps Igantieff has made in roads in Manitoba, but to do so at the loss of Toronto is just BAD NEWS!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:53 AM  

  • What did I base that on, Gene? The fact that you can afford to lose Winnipeg North more than you can afford to lose Vaughan. Winning Winnipeg North is not nearly as significant as losing Vaughan.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:55 AM  

  • Vaughn may be in the GTA, but it is not a Toronto riding.

    By Blogger saphorr, at 11:45 AM  

  • And it's not like the Tories had no GTA ridings before.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:47 AM  

  • Sorry, Anonymous. Barely losing Vaughan when you're running against a (super)star candidate is not really that significant. If the Tories were able to find candidates of Fantino's image and name recognition to run in every Toronto-area riding, the Liberals should worry. But if it takes a candidate of Fantino's stature to barely win the riding, the Liberal base seems to be holding pretty well.

    Come the general election, most Tory candidates will be less well-known than the Liberal incumbent, or equally unknown. The Liberal base in Toronto and much of (but not all) the GTA will likely hold.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:49 AM  

  • "A popular incumbent resigns and their party's share of the vote drops."

    By a whopping 2.6%, compared with a modest increase of 15% for the CPC.

    By Blogger jad, at 11:50 AM  

  • If Dave Bronconnier ran for the Liberals in the Calgary North by election to fill Prentice's seat and won against a Tory no-name, I wouldn't take it as a sign the Liberals are on the March and ready to sweep Alberta.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:35 PM  

  • Liberals sure look desperate today. Liberals stayed even in the seat count and Conservatives went up another seat. Liberals describe that as a Liberal victory and Conservative loss. A guess a Conservative majority would be described as a HUGE Liberal victory, lmfao. Today was a bad day for the Liberals, especially since the extra Tory seat is in the GTA.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:43 PM  

  • John Ibbitson also had Danny Williams as the "13th" Premier of Dannystan (he's the ninth), had most of the population of Dannystan living in or near St. John's (the exact opposite is true), and had Chairman Dan signing the Voisey's Bay agreement (which happened under his predecessor, more than a year before he was elected.)

    By Blogger WJM, at 12:46 PM  

  • The "progressive movement"? WTF is that?

    Every party is progressive, and progressives vote for every party. Sometimes they have to hold their nose while they do it ...

    Canadians are progressive - perhaps they vote based on who can best execute those policies, but that can change quickly.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 1:17 PM  

  • re. Dion gaining seats, QC not only region. NFLD (Atlantic?).

    By Blogger Eugene Forsey Liberal, at 1:22 PM  

  • I don't think it means a huge amount. I could quite easily see both seats flipping back to the previous holder's party in the next election, when it's less about the candidate (and turnout is higher) - Fantino only won by about 3%, Lamoureux by only a bit more than that.

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 2:52 PM  

  • One other (small) thing that plays in the Conservatives' favour: they stole a seat from the Liberals, which is essentially a gain of two seats when it comes to which of those parties wins an election. The Liberals stole a seat from the NDP, which is only a gain of one.

    By Anonymous The Invisible Hand, at 12:34 AM  

  • By elections don't change the world agreed if you are 1/7.

    The balance sheets and two general elections, plus all the by elections is significant if you combine all the little pieces.

    Janine Krieber waited one year before her Face book post. It deserves a 2nd read.

    NDP and CPC field a rookie in WPG North and NDP stay home.

    Judy loses to incumbent in Mayor race. NDP in trouble?

    Maurizio crushed Linda takes Mayor. Liberals voters decided to give Liberal Maurizio the job but not the Ignatieff pick Tony.

    Maurizio is a no show for Iggy-Tony contest?

    Why are NO liberals asking what happened to the Liberal crack team in Ontario?

    Are Liberals suggesting a big name is what it takes to change Liberal held seats of 22 years?

    Raw votes for incumbent seats in all three ridings went down 8-9.9k.

    Montreal Alouettes, CFL Commissioner Larry Smith may be up next in QC.(West Montreal Island)

    Panic button yet?

    By Blogger CanadianSense, at 9:07 PM  

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