Battleground Vaughan

Three ridings will elect new MPs tomorrow, but all eyes are on Vaughan. Yeah, in the scheme of things one seat won't change anything in Ottawa, but this one has been hyped to the point where the outcome will certainly define the media narrative for the remainder of 2010.

As such, the Liberals are running ads on TV - my Italian vocabulary doesn't extend past pasta dishes but, from the planes buzzing around Harper's head and the price tags flashing on screen, it's safe to classify this as an attack ad.



The Liberals have also put out a video with Justin Trudeau (sporting his Movember stach) slagging Fantino over past comments he's made about the Charter.

Of course, this is now and the Tories are alleging the Liberals thought a lot more of Fantino back when they were courting him to run. This really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone - Fantino is a star candidate, and few can resist the siren's call of a star.

Which is why Fantino's disappearing act is so perplexing. Maybe the Tories are confident they have it in the bag. Maybe they're worried about what he'll say. Maybe he's not as impressive in the flesh as on a pamphlet. But for whatever reason, it's certainly counter intuitive to hide your best asset - after all, if the Tories take this riding they haven't held for 22 years, it won't be because of the Conservative brand, it will be because of the candidate.

But even if Fantino is nowhere to be seen, there are stars to be found. Don Cherry has endorsed Fantino, and high profile MPs have dropped in for all parties - I was out canvassing yesterday and saw both Martha Hall Findlay and Gerard Kennedy in the Genco campaign office.

So tune in tomorrow night - it's gonna be a close one. I won't even try to make a prediction because it could very much go either way.


UPDATE: I still think it's too close to call, but those always reliable "anonynous Liberals strategists" have already admited defeat.

By Elections

In case you missed it, a trio of by elections were called last weekend.


1. Vaughan: Mayor Maurizio has won this riding easily in recent years, and defeated Richard Lorello 49% to 34% in 2008.

My seat projection system gives the Liberals a 91.4% chance to hold Vaughan during a general election, but this is a by election - a by election featuring a legitimate star candidate in Julian Fantino. Yes, I know the term "star candidate" gets used to describe anyone who has ever run for student council, had an op ed published in their local paper, or appeared as an extra on Road to Avonlea, but Fantino is legit. He's a former OPP Commissioner and Toronto Chief of Police, and is well respected in Vaughan. He's someone Stephen Harper would dearly love to have at his side when talking about Conservative "tough on crime" policies.

Taking on Fantino will be Liberal candidate Tony Genco, the former CEO and President of Downsview Park (a site that hosted both the Pope and the Rolling Stones...sadly not at the same time).

This has the makings of a good fight, with the Tories likely the slight favourites.


Winnipeg North: This seat was formerly held by Judy Wasylycia-Leis, the name that everyone loves to say three times real fast.

Trying to fill Judy's shoes for the orange will be educator Kevin Chief.

Chief's chief competition will come from Liberal nominee Kevin Lamoureux, a man who makes up 50% of the provincial Liberal caucus in Manitoba. Also in the mix is Tory candidate Ray Larkin who was defeated by Wasylycia-Leis 63% to 22% in the last general election Julie Javier.

The projection model gives the NDP a 96.4% chance at holding the seat, with the Tories at 3.5% and the Liberals 0.2% longshots. Again, that's for a general election and anything can happen in a by election.


Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette: This has been Inky Mark territory since 1997. Like Judy, Mark gave up the glories of life on the back benches for municipal politics and, like Judy, he went down in defeat on Wednesday.

Mark won the last election by 45 percentage points and my seat projector has the Tories at a 100% chance of holding it in a general election. So, to put it mildly, the challengers have their work cut out for them. Especially since neither the Liberals nor the NDP have nominated a challenger as of yet.

The Tory candidate is Robert Sopuck, who "has earned a solid reputation as an outspoken advocate for Manitoba’s rural communities". If elected, Sopuck would help the Tories cut into the NDP's long standing facial hair dominance in parliament.

News & Notes

1. Julian Fantino will be the Tory candidate in the upcoming Vaughan by election. As for when that will occur, Pundits Guide speculates that the 5 upcoming by elections will be called for a December 13th vote.

So how will the Vaughan by election go? Well, in my updated Seat Projections (to be posted tomorrow morning), I peg the riding at a 91% chance of going Liberal and 9% of going Tory if a general election were held today. But let's remember, by elections have a life of their own, and Fantino is a legit star candidate, so you almost have to handicap the Tories as slight favourites in this one.


2. The Globe and Mail applauds Ignatieff's Family Care policy (as do these people).


3. The Ontario PCs have launched pre-election ads.


4. Canada has lost its bid for a seat on the UN Security council. And the Tories have found a way to blame this one on Michael Ignatieff - huh. Let's all be grateful Canada won Olympic hockey gold this year, or else I'm sure that loss would have been Ignatieff's fault too.

Either way, I don't see this as a big vote turner. Foreign policy rarely is. But it's still an embarrassment for Harper, no matter how you spin it.


5. Speaking of embarrassments, a video of Rob Ford in action. (hat tip - Kinsella)