Ontario PC Vote Results

It's looking like a Hudak-Klees showdown on the third ballot, with the end result a mystery at this point. Here are the round 1 results:

Hudak 3512
Klees 3094
Elliott 2729
Hillier 1014

There is no realistic way Elliott will catch Klees (remember, this is votes, not delegates, so you won't have people switch their first preference), which means it will all come down to Hudak and Klees on the final ballot.


UPDATE: I'm out for the rest of the day, so check out Stephen Taylor for results. Assuming Hudak increases his lead on Klees (with a Hillier assist), Klees will need Elliott's second place votes to split about 60/40 in his favour to overtake Hudak on the final ballot. Not impossible by any means, so we could be in for a close finish.

Go Randy Go!

I'm not a PC Party member so I'm not going to make any endorsements. Well, scratch that, I endorse Randy Hillier. Please vote for Randy. Not just because it would mean an easy win for McGuinty, but also because, as was pointed out to me by a clever grit this weekend, it raises the very real possibility of a PC campaign run under a "Are You Feeling Randy?" slogan.

In all seriousness, Hillier has run a solid campaign. As I said in my profile of him, he's latched on to some good conservative issues people can relate to, and has been nothing but a consistent voice for the right wing of his party. Whoever wins is going to have a tough time marginalizing Hillier, especially if he's able to move his votes to Hudak for the win.

Frank Klees may be a good candidate. But, for the life of me, I'm so incredibly uninterested in his campaign and him that I don't think I'll be able to bring myself to complete my website profile series (other than to say: Damn, that is one big picture of Frank on his website). In fairness, a lot of people probably said the same thing about Dalton McGuinty when he ran for Ontario Liberal leadership in 1996, and they certainly said the same thing about Ed Stelmach when he won the Alberta PC leadership in 2006. But, I'm not a PC member, and life is just too short to spend it researching Frank Klees.

So this weekend's vote, if the pundits are to be believed (always a risk in leadership contests), comes down to Tim Hudak and Christine Elliott. Of the two, I think Elliott has run the best campaign, would make the better Premier, and would be a more formidable opponent to Dalton McGuinty in 2011. In a leadership race lasting all summer, I don't doubt for a second that she could have reeled in Hudak and won it.

But Hudak had a leadership-ready team in place, and a big lead when this thing started. In a short contest, that's worth a lot more than substance. In a delegated convention, he might have been Iggy'd in a front-runner gang-up, but I suspect the individual voters' second choices will scatter (or they'll leave the ballot blank), allowing Hudak to eek it out on the third ballot.

We'll find out this weekend.

PC Leadership Websites: A Randy Site

Tagline: "A Conservative Leader for a Conservative Party" and "Common Sense Solutions That Help Ordinary Ontarians"

Unofficial Tagline: "A Conservative Leader for those of you who think Mike Harris was too much of a pinko commie"


Image: Randy is rockin' the suspenders.

The Basics: The basics are all there on the front page for everyone to see, with the emphasis being put on policy, and on signing up new members. Hillier's been good about sending out e-mail updates since I joined his list and, because of that, I'd try and feature the e-mail sign-up a bit more prominently if I were them.

Web 2.0: While Hillier does the basics well, there's not much else here. Sure, there's audio, but the site is thin on video, with a rather dull youtube channel. He has the mandatory web 2.0 links, but hasn't been putting much effort into them, with only 185 supporters on facebook.

Visuals: The man is clearly an Eifel 65 fan, and the website suffers because of it. Still, Hillier does make good use of the space above the fold on the main page and the sub-pages on the site are a bit easier on the eyes.

Meet Randy: Randy Hillier doesn’t beat around the bush. He’s a Conservative, so his slogan is “A Conservative Leader For A Conservative Party”, and his site is so blue it will hurt your eyes. He wants the votes of rural Ontarians so he wears suspenders in his picture. He wants to build on the Harris nostalgia, so he’s proposing “common sense solutions”.

Policy: In my mind, Hillier has used policy better than any leadership campaign I have ever seen. Rather than weighing in with a lengthy platform full of platitudes, Hillier has 10 specific “common sense” policies on three themes - Freedom, Justice, and Democracy. The policies are perfectly targeted to his core demographic, they have catchy headlines, and he explains them in simple terms. He’ll let beer be sold at corner stores. He’ll bring in Senate elections. He’ll overturn the pesticide ban. These aren’t promises to increase funding or set up commissions, they’re things people can understand and relate to.

Are you a SoCon? Well, he has policies on gay marriage and the human rights commission for you. Are you a pit bull owner? Enjoy the occasional bear hunt? Well, this guy is your man.

As much as I disagree with almost every policy he proposes, leadership candidates and political parties could learn a thing or two from Randy Hillier.

Alexa Rank: Lower than Hudak and Elliott, but people are spending more time on Hillier's site per visit. He's also managed to drive a bit of traffic to the site through google searches on human rights commission issues, which shows his policy focus may be working.

Rating: It’s a well-designed site, with good content and weak visuals. Add it all up, and I give it a 7 out of 10.

Can he win? No, but from my vantage point (which admittedly is way outside the Ontario PC circle), he won't do worse than a strong third. Which means, for better or worse, Randy Hillier is a real force to be reckoned with in the Ontario PC Party.

You May Now Be Seated - The Tory Race to Replace Tory

Friday was the deadline to enter the Ontario PC leadership race and, even though the contest has been somewhat wired for Tim Hudak, a field of four MPPs has emerged - Hudak (the frontrunner), Randy Hillier (think right...then walk a few more steps right), Christine Elliott (Jim Flaherty's wife), and Frank Klees (Jaine Klees' husband).

I'll be back at some point during the race with website reviews but for now, here's what's making news so far:

-Stephen Taylor has interviews with Christine Elliott and Tim Hudak.

-Taylor also reports that Randy Hillier has proposed dropping the "P" from PC. I haven't seen a public confirmation anywhere, but Hillier's "A Conservative Leader for a Conservative Party" slogan would certainly imply that.

-Hudak has the early lead on the endorsement front, with 12 MPPs backing him, compared to 2 for Elliott and Klees, and none for Hillier.

-Of note, Rob Nicholson and John Baird have gone against their Cabinet colleague Flaherty, and are supporting Hudak.

-In the "media buzz" department, things are surprisingly close - Hudak has been in 301 google news stories, Hillier 288, Elliott 277, and Klees 269.

-Looking at "blog buzz", Hudak (155) tops Hillier (141), Elliott (128), and Klees (91).

-Looking at their websites' Alexa rank over the past month, Hillier (1.6 million) and Hudak (2.1 million) have the top sites, with Elliott (4.0 million) and Klees (7.5 million) further back.

The yet to be named Tory race to replace Tory

The Ontario PCs will select a new leader on June 27th.

There's more sniffing going on in this Tory leadership race than at an Andre Boisclair house party, with everyone and their wife sniffing around to gauge the lay of the land. I'll admit that my understanding of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party is minimal - I know Mike Harris used to be Premier, that Ernie Eves delivered his budget in an auto plant a few years ago, and that John Tory doesn't have a seat...that's about it. So don't expect a lot of insightful coverage of the race from this blog. With that in mind, here's my un-insightful look at the field so far.

Diane Finley: For those of you unfamiliar with her (I'm looking at you, everyone), she's married to Harper strategist Doug Finlay, and wears sunglasses [UPDATE: used to!] in the House of Commons. Finley has been relatively untouched by scandal and charges of incompetence, making her one of Stephen Harper's better ministers.

Peter Van Loan: Based on my limited knowledge of the field, PVL would be my early pick as their "best choice". He'd bring the fire, has experienced, and scores fairly low on the "scary scale". Seeing him go head to head with "the small man of confederation" would be a lot of fun too.

Tim Hudak: Tim is the frontrunner in this race, which means that he pretty much has it in the bag, right? All I really know about the man is that Mike Harris has endorsed him, and he ran the "Great Dominion Dust Up" bracketed poll on his blog to find Canada's most inspiring politician (sound familiar?) a few years back, that Louis Riel won. Go figure. While no one will mistake Hudak for Canada's most inspiring politician, the real question is whether he's the most inspiring of this bunch, or not.

Tony Clement: Hasn't lost a leadership race recently, so you just know he's itching to once again experience the thrill of defeat.

Christine Elliott: Seems like a solid candidate, although controlling Jim "last place to invest" Flaherty could be a tougher challenge than Hillary had of muzzling Bill.

Randy Hillier: Would be an entertaining addition to the race, in the same way Craig Chandler was an entertaining addition to the 2003 PC leadership race.

Julian Fantino: Currently, Ontario's Provincial Police Commissioner so he'd have to find a seat if he won the leadership. But, hey, how hard could that be?


UPDATE: The Globe lets some PC strategists weigh in on "life after Tory". For the record, I agree with Jaime Watt that running the Harris playbook again would be a big mistake for them. The Tories need to position themselves as a centrist party and then just pound McGuinty into the ground on the economy. The federal Conservatives won Ontario last election, so it shouldn't be too hard for them to figure out where to target their resources and who will be a part of their winning coalition.