Fun with Numbers: The Conservatives

Last month, I looked at ridings where the Liberals exceeded expectations. Today, a look at ridings where the Tories did better than we would have thought given what was going on around them. If you're confused about what the numbers in brackets mean, check out my first post on this topic. I'm not saying it will end your confusion, but it may.

1. Cumberland Colchester (+33 percentage points above expected): Bill Casey wiped the floor clean of everyone in 2008 as an independent. And since this exercise uses 2008 as the baseline, it's only natural this riding would rise to the top. Let's consider it an aberation and move on.

2. Labrador (+20): Canada's new minister of intergovernmental affairs likely pulled off the most remarkable victory in the country on May 2nd. In 2008, Todd Russell won the riding for the Liberals with 70% - the CPC were a distant third at 8%. And yet, on election night, Peter Penashue emerged triumphant. Even when we factor in the Tory jump in Newfoundland, this riding stands out as one of the most astounding election night results.

3. Nunavut (+14): Seat projections and strategic voting sites had this riding as a 3-way race...in the end, Leona Aglukkaq increased her 2008 level of support by 15 points.

4. Vaughan (+13): This one isn't a surprise given the by election. I'd argue Lamoureux's hold was more impressive, but Fantino still built upon his by election success, earning 56% of the vote.

5. Montmagny-L'islet-yada yada (+11): This was a rare seat in Quebec where the Conservative vote actually increased from 2008 but, once again, the results are somewhat deceiving since the Tories picked it up in a 2009 by election. Clearly by election results will need to be factored in if this methodology is ever refined.

6. Megantic-L'Erable (+8): Christian Paradis not only survived, but increased his vote from 2008.

7. Mount Royal (+8): It's no secret the Tories were targeting the Jewish population in Mount Royal, and they appear to have had some success at it. Of note, Mount Royal was number 12 on this same list in 2008, so this wasn't a one-time fluke - they're making sustained inroads.

8. Roberval-Lac Saint Jean (+8): Like Paradis, Denis Lebel managed to keep his head above the orange wave.

9. Timmins-James Bay (+8): Although the riding stayed orange, Conservative support jumped 14 points there.

10. Esquimalt Juan De Fuca (+7): Not surprising given the retirement of Keith Martin.


Other Notables: Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Sydney-Victoria, Miramichi, Mississauga-Brampton South, Egmont, York Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Saint John, Richmond

Ridings to Watch - BC

After a look at Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta, we head West, to the always interesting world of BC politics.

I don't have a lot of on-the-ground intel, so check out Pundits Guide for a great qualitative look at the ridings. I'll provide a brief overview here, using data from my seat projections but, by all means, chime in with your own 2 cents in the comments section.


Liberal Party Outlook

We can likely write off Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca. The projection model gives the grits only a 5% chance to hold, and I suspect the "Keith Martin effect" is larger than the incumbency boost I give candidates. Beyond that, the grits have between a 60% and 88% chance of holding Newton North Delta, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver South, and Vancouver Quadra.

The most promising pickup for them is North Vancouver (18%), where Taleeb Noormohamed will try to unseat first term incumbent Andrew Saxon.


Conservative Party Outlook

In addition to the Liberal challenge in North Vancouver, the Tories could be in tough in Surrey North and Vancouver Island North, where my model gives the NDP even odds.

Layton flew into Kamloops today, a seat he certainly could take from the Tories if the orange wave hits the West Coast. The only other seat the Tories have less than 95% chance of holding in BC is Nanaimo-Alberni, where the NDP's Zeni Maartman is trying to knock off incumbent James Lunney.

Oh yeah, and Saanich, which we'll get to in a second.

As for pick-ups, their best chances for gains would be the aforementioned Liberal seats, and Burnaby-Douglas, where they lost to the NDP by just 800 votes last election.


NDP Outlook

Although the NDP are rising in the polls, it's still unclear how many seats they can actually nab in BC. Based on the projection model, their best odds are in Surrey North (62%), Vancouver Island North (45%), Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca (26%), Newton-North Delta (21%), Vancouver Centre (18%), Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo (17%), and Nanaimo-Alberni (7%).


The Greens

The Greens have released an internal poll showing Elizabeth May ahead in Saanich-Gulf Islands but, keep in mind, this is an internal poll. Possibly one of Elizabeth May's household.

All along, I've felt this seat was a 50/50 shot, and I haven't seen anything this campaign to make me to change my mind. Or, I guess I should say, "to make me make up my mind".

The stakes are certainly high for May, since it seems almost certain the Green vote will be going down nationally. If she can't win in Saanich, the Greens could very well fade into obscurity. No pressure.

Meanwhile, in BC

The BC Libs have set the rules to replace Gordon Campbell...kind of.

The plan is to use a riding-by-riding weighted point system, similar to how the federal Tories picked Harper and how the Ontario Tories picked Hudak. It's also the system the federal grits will use the next time they have a leadership race, unless of course they feel like just appointing someone again.

The catch is that they'll need to hold a special AGM in February to change the rules. As you might imagine, changing the rules for a leadership race in the midst of a leadership race isn't the easiest thing to accomplish.

So this leaves a lot of uncertainty, and could mean Gordon Campbell stays on until May.

As for the contenders, Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts (who struck me as the best candidate from what little I know of the candidates) has decided to take a pass. Carole Taylor has also ruled out a return to politics, although from what I've read, the door is still somewhat ajar there.

Among other high profile candidates, some rumours have circled around Harper Cabmin James Moore, though I have a hard time seeing why a 34 year old Cabinet Minister would want to jump into a job that could very likely leave him unemployed in a little over two years. Plus, it's not like being Heritage Minister is a bad gig - you get to go to movie premiers and meet cool wrestlers. Sounds like more fun than selling the HST to me.

The recently retired Keith Martin has also been rumoured, though I feel that speculation is more based on "let's toss out random names of BC politicians" than on any sort of reality.

So that leaves us with possible candidates Rich Coleman, Kevin Falcon, George Abbott, Mike de Jong, Christy Clark and Blair Lekstrom. And, presumably, Frank McKenna.

I don't know nearly enough about these candidates to offer any kind of insight on this race. From what I've seen online so far, BC2013 seems to be the go-to site but if you know of other blogs, feel free to post links in the comments section.


UPDATE: The leadership vote will be February 26th...less than two weeks after the vote to change the leadership selection rules.

One would think this kind of chaos could be avoided by a party in power, with an outgoing leader everyone knew was leaving, and two and a half years out from the next fixed date election. But, I guess not.

Keith Martin Retires

I'm not sure if it's the weather or what, but it seems like everyone is deciding to pack it up. Another day, another retirement announcement - this time Liberal MP Keith Martin.

I've always had a lot of time for Keith Martin. He entered politics for the right reasons. When he switched parties, it wasn't to grab a Cabinet seat - he sat as an independent, won the Liberal nomination, then ran and won under the Liberal banner in the 2004 election. He's always been an issues-driven MP, trying to make a difference, with Health Care reform the topic most near and dear to his heart. (Click here to see my interview with him on the state of Health Care in Canada)

Martin's loss will definitely be a blow to the Liberals. My seat projector pegged his re-election odds at 61%, but it's foolish to think Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca was anything but a Keith Martin seat. And since Martin only took the riding by 68 votes last time, this one has CPC pick-up written all over it.

Vancouver Interviews: Keith Martin on Health Care

In my final interview from this spring's Liberal leadership convention, I sat down with Keith Martin, to talk about the health care system. Given all the brouhaha surrounding Obama's health care reforms, it's probably worth taking a minute to remember that our system is far from perfect itself.



See also: Ralph Goodale on Western Alienation, Scott Brison on the economy, Carolyn Bennett on the Change Commission, Justin Trudeau on youth in politics, John McCallum on the economy<