By Elections

In case you missed it, a trio of by elections were called last weekend.


1. Vaughan: Mayor Maurizio has won this riding easily in recent years, and defeated Richard Lorello 49% to 34% in 2008.

My seat projection system gives the Liberals a 91.4% chance to hold Vaughan during a general election, but this is a by election - a by election featuring a legitimate star candidate in Julian Fantino. Yes, I know the term "star candidate" gets used to describe anyone who has ever run for student council, had an op ed published in their local paper, or appeared as an extra on Road to Avonlea, but Fantino is legit. He's a former OPP Commissioner and Toronto Chief of Police, and is well respected in Vaughan. He's someone Stephen Harper would dearly love to have at his side when talking about Conservative "tough on crime" policies.

Taking on Fantino will be Liberal candidate Tony Genco, the former CEO and President of Downsview Park (a site that hosted both the Pope and the Rolling Stones...sadly not at the same time).

This has the makings of a good fight, with the Tories likely the slight favourites.


Winnipeg North: This seat was formerly held by Judy Wasylycia-Leis, the name that everyone loves to say three times real fast.

Trying to fill Judy's shoes for the orange will be educator Kevin Chief.

Chief's chief competition will come from Liberal nominee Kevin Lamoureux, a man who makes up 50% of the provincial Liberal caucus in Manitoba. Also in the mix is Tory candidate Ray Larkin who was defeated by Wasylycia-Leis 63% to 22% in the last general election Julie Javier.

The projection model gives the NDP a 96.4% chance at holding the seat, with the Tories at 3.5% and the Liberals 0.2% longshots. Again, that's for a general election and anything can happen in a by election.


Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette: This has been Inky Mark territory since 1997. Like Judy, Mark gave up the glories of life on the back benches for municipal politics and, like Judy, he went down in defeat on Wednesday.

Mark won the last election by 45 percentage points and my seat projector has the Tories at a 100% chance of holding it in a general election. So, to put it mildly, the challengers have their work cut out for them. Especially since neither the Liberals nor the NDP have nominated a challenger as of yet.

The Tory candidate is Robert Sopuck, who "has earned a solid reputation as an outspoken advocate for Manitoba’s rural communities". If elected, Sopuck would help the Tories cut into the NDP's long standing facial hair dominance in parliament.

Don't Quit Your Day Job

Winnipeg breaks the anti-incumbency craze sweeping the nation, returning Sam Katz to office, despite the fact that he kicks children in the face. Going down in defeat is former NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis.

Elsewhere in Manitoba, former Reform/CA/DRC/PC/CPC MP Inky Mark loses by 36 votes in Dauphin.

This leaves Maurizio Bevilacqua the only winner among the three MPs who jumped to municipal politics this fall.


UPDATE: I should add that former Liberal MPs Ken Boshcoff and Joe Fontana won their races on Monday. Though for Boshcoff (defeated in 2008), it was only for a council spot and for Fontana, it was his second attempt at the top job since resigning in 2006.

Wasylycia-Leis, Wasylycia-Leis, Wasylycia-Leis

The biggest tongue twister of a name is leaving Ottawa:

Winnipeg MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis is giving up her seat in Parliament.

Effective May 1, the longtime NDP politician will resign the Winnipeg North seat she has held since 1997.

Wasylycia-Leis, 58, made the announcement Tuesday in Ottawa.

There has been speculation she intends to run for mayor of Winnipeg in the civic election this fall. However, a decision has yet to be made, she told CBC News earlier Tuesday.

Wasylycia-Leis won her seat in a walk last election, against a rather lackluster opposition:

NDP 62.2% (spent 56k)
CPC 22.4% (spent 6k)
Lib 9.2% (spent 14k)
Green 4.8% (spent 491$)

So, I wouldn't expect this seat to flip anytime soon (Pundits Guide gives the rundown on a possible by election). However, this riding may just be the perfect case study in what ails the Liberals in Western Canada. The seat was painted Liberal red in 1988 and 1993 - but watch how the Grits have fallen since then:

1993: 22,180 votes
1997: 6,755 votes
2000: 7,801 votes
2004: 9,491 votes
2006: 5,752 votes
2008: 2,075 votes

Yes, I know the boundaries have been redrawn and the "flood election" washed away thousands of Liberal votes in Winnipeg. But there's really no excuse for the Liberals to be getting less than a quarter of the support now as they got during the first Adscam election.

I'm not a wild eyed dreamer who expects the party to win in Crowfoot or Prince Albert anytime soon. But if we want to regain power and to ever have a chance at another majority government, this party needs to win seats in places like Winnipeg, Regina, Edmonton, and Vancouver.

Which means they need to at least be competitive in a riding like Winnipeg North.