Fun with Numbers: The Liberals

As we learned last election, when the political wave rises, it's hard to avoid it. If ever you wanted evidence of just how powerless local campaigns are, look no further than some of the quality men and women who were defeated by phantom candidates who hadn't even set foot in the riding, never mind campaigned there.

But that's not to say local candidates can't make a difference. After all, it's a safe bet that lone spec of red between Winnipeg and Vancouver also known as Wascana would be blue if anyone other than Ralph Goodale had been the Liberal candidate.

It's very difficult to measure the success of local campaigns, but it is possible to get a sense of which candidates did better or worse than expected. To measure this, I've used the same methodology as after the 2008 election. Namely, I've carved Canada up into 30 subregions (i.e. Calgary, Southwest Ontario, Nova Scotia, Northern Quebec, etc) and compared the vote change from 2008 in each riding to the regional swing. So if a given candidate held his support while her party lost 10 points in the region, that's a sign the local campaign had some positive mojo.

With that, I present a list of the 10 Liberal campaigns that most exceeded expectations. The important thing to keep in mind is that this is relative to 2008. People like Gerard Kennedy and Ken Dryden may very well be star candidates who ran top notch campaigns but their residual value for this exercise still comes in around "0" - which is what we'd expect, assuming they ran comparably strong campaigns in the last go around.

So treat this more as a list of ridings that stood out, for a variety of reasons.

1. Winnipeg North (+27 percentage points above expected): No surprise here since I used 2008 and not the by election as the baseline. But even if we give by elections their historical weighting, Lamoureux nets a +10. To become relevant in Western Canada, the Liberal Party needs to find whatever factory made Kevin Lamoureux and order a dozen more.

2. Guelph (+17): Frank Valeriote's vote actually jumped 11 points in Guelph this election, due in part to the collapse of the Greens in this riding.

3. Central Nova (+15): Central Nova makes this list for obvious reasons...it's not hard to improve upon 0 votes. Central Nova scored a -17 in 2008, so this marks a return to the traditional level of Liberal support..

4. Sault Ste. Marie (+12): While 19% is not a great showing, it still marks an improvement from 2008, at a time when the Liberals were falling everywhere else in Ontario. Still, this riding put up a -7 in 2008, so some of this is nothing more than a "bounce back".

5. Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (+11): Basically the same story as above.

6. Cumberland-Colchester (+10): The Liberals benefit from the retirement of Bill Casey, who pretty much everyone in the riding voted for in 2008.

7. Don Valley West (+10): This is small consolation for Rob Oliphant, who still finds himself unemployed.

8. Calgary Northeast (+8): This was actually the Liberals' best riding in Alberta, with their support jumping 8 points, to 28%. The LPCA should treat this riding the same way the NDP treated Edmonton Strathcona after Linda Duncan's strong second in 2006. Nominate Stewart early, door knock the riding heavily in advance of the next election, and pour resources into it. At the very least, they can make the CPC play defense in Calgary next time.

9. Avalon (+8): Scott Andrews held his ground, despite the Liberals dropping elsewhere in Newfoundland.

10. Surrey North (+8): Once again, 18% isn't a phenomenal result, but it still marks an improvement from 2008.


Honourable Mention: Kitchener-Waterloo, Papineau, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough, Ajax-Pickering, Nepean-Carleton, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Eglinton-Lawrence, Malpeque, Random-Burin-St.George's, Medicine Hat, Westmount-Ville Marie

Ridings to Watch - Saskatoba

Yesterday, I looked at Alberta. Today, we head east. Keep in mind, there's not a lot of polling data from the Prairies, so this is a fairly superficial overview. Any intel those of you on the ground have is greatly appreciated!


Wascana

There are some certainties in life. Sun goes up, sun goes down. Tide goes in, tide goes out. Ralph Goodale wins in Wascana.


Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River

This riding has switched sides every election since its creation in 1997, so it's hard to give Tory Rob Clarke too much of an incumbency boost. The local candidate makes a huge difference here, and the aboriginal vote is key, so it's a bit of a wild card and not necessarily a riding that will follow national trends. Word on the ground is that NDP candidate Lawrence Joseph is quite popular, so a third-to-first swing for the Dippers isn't out of the question.


Other NDP Hopes in Tommy Douglas Country

The projection model gives the NDP a decent shot at winning back Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and Palliser.


Liberal Long Shots

The Liberals are hopeful about Monica Lysack's chances in Lumsden Lake Centre, which they came within 122 votes of taking in 2004. Moving up the charts in this riding is also the Polka King, NDP candidate Brian Sklar.


The Liberals are also targeting Saskatoon-Humbolt, where Tory incumbent Brad Trost has gotten himself into some hot water. Liberal candidate and city councillor Darren Hill has been working the riding for quite some time though here, like in Lumsden, there's a lot of ground to make up.


Winnipeg

The Liberals have a pair of Winnipeg MPs - Anita Neville, who has represented Winnipeg South Centre for 11 years, and Kevin Lamoureux, who has represented Winnipeg North for 5 months. Of the two, Lamoureux is likely in tougher, with Bill Blaikie's daughter, Rebecca, trying to win back this former NDP stronghold.

Even if Winnipeg North falls, Saint Boniface and Winnipeg South remain possible grit pick-ups if things break their way. Beyond that, Kildonan-St.Paul is the only other seat in play, and it would only flip to the NDP if the orange wave really picks up steam out west.


Elsewhere in Manitoba

The Liberals couldn't hold Churchill with Tina Keeper last election, so we can likely mark this one down as an NDP hold. The rest of the seats in Manitoba are as Tory as they get.

By Election Numbers II

Even though everyone (myself included) loves to compare by election results to the last election, by elections are not general elections. As such, the more useful comparison is to other by elections.

With that in mind, let's dive in to the numbers from this last round of by elections.


Turnout

Turnout was 32.4% in Vaughan, 30.8% in Winnipeg North, and 26.9% in Dauphin, for an overall average of 30%. This is comparable to the 31.1% we saw in the last round of by elections and slughtly below the average of 34.2% we've seen since 1998 - 34.2% is also the average by election turnout in the Harper era so, despite lackluster excitement in the last two rounds of by elections, there's not strong evidence of a long term decline in by election turnout.

Party Performances

Looking specifically at the 17 by elections during the Harper era, here's how the parties have performed, on average, relative to the previous election:

CPC: +5.5% (+3.6% if you exlude the Bill Casey by election)
NDP: +0.6%
Lib: -0.1%
Bloc: -2.9%
Green: +1.1% (due almost exclusively to London North Centre)

So, the Bloc have had a rough ride, and the Tories have tended to over perform their previous election results. Feel free to toss out your own theory why that is.

I think a lot of it comes down to the Tories' superior ground game but, above all else, it's likely due to the fact that every by election, except Dauphin, has been in an opposition-held riding. Since 2004, the "incumbent" party has dropped an average of 5.3% in by elections. Which makes sense, given they're the ones losing the incumbent...and quite often, a long serving or popular incumbent.

A good test to this theory will be in the next round of by elections, when Jim Prentice's and Jay Hill's seats open up. I'd expect the Tory vote to drop noticeably in both these ridings should they go to by election.


Vaughan & Winnipeg North

The Conservatives picked up 15 points in Vaughan - no small feat, but far from extra ordinary. It's the 7th biggest jump in a Harper era by election...and we're only talking about 17 in total.

Winnipeg North has been overshadowed by Vaughan in the post-election media reaction, despite it being a far more remarkable story. Kevin Lamoureux saw a 5-fold increase in his share of the popular vote, for an increase of over 37 percentage points. That breaks (by a fraction of a percentage) the Harper era record - but that was in Cumberland Colchester after Bill Casey resigned, hardly a fair comparison. The next highest gain had been 30 points, by Thomas Mulcair in Outremont.

So what does the future holds for Misters Fantino and Lamoureux? Well, as fun as last night was, they might want to hold off on calling an Ottawa-area real estate agent. In by elections held between the 2006 and 2008 elections, five candidate saw a double digit gain in their vote. In these 5 instances, the average by election gain was 20 points - but they lost an average of 10 points in the next election. Even Mulcair saw his vote share fall 8 points in the general election.

Lamoureux and Fantino both squeaked in by slim margins - if they wind up giving back half their gains the next time we go to the polls, they'll both be out of work.