Monday Morning

A few random Monday morning thoughts, posted Sunday night:


1. I've generally been in the "no election" camp over the past two years whenever the "THE GOVERNMENT IS ABOUT TO FALL!!!" speculation has started up time and time and time again.

But, it's really looking like the moment of truth has finally arrived. I think it's safe to say Harper's ridiculous crime threat is going nowhere but, listening to the leaders this weekend, I don't see any way for the Afghanistan extension to pass. I just get the sense that the stakes are too high - both politically and for Canada - for anyone to compromise. Now, this might very well mean the budget gets rushed to ensure the Tories fall on it first but, I would be surprised if this government lives to see April.


2. Looking back at the first week of the Alberta election, it's hard to deny it's been a rocky week for Stelmach - in the words of ES: "Memo to the Premier's Staff: Don't take him "on the road" to make announcements unless you're 100% sure that the people who are present in the room will think the announcements are a *good* thing. You look like amateurs right now, and you're making your boss look like a fool in front of the cameras." It's no wonder Ed went into hiding this weekend.

And while I do think Taft has looked Premierial (what's the provincial equivalent of "Prime Ministerial" anyways?) so far, I am a bit concerned about the number of promises he's making every day. The "(insert city here) agendas" are a good idea, but the risk is always that you'll get portrayed as "tax and spend Liberals". Talking about being fiscally conservative and tossing out a few democratic reform ideas would probably net more votes than the wide range of spending promises we've seen so far. The kind of changes Kevin talked about in Democracy Derailed wouldn't cost much and go to the argument that the Tories have been corrupted by power - hopefully the focus shifts over to those sorts of promises shortly.

So, I'll reluctantly give NDP leader George Mason props for his plan to ban corporate and union donations. Especially since the NDP would be hurt a lot by the loss of the union donations.


3. Congrats to Daveberta on the trio of Canadian Blog Awards he picked up. As the runner up for two awards, I certainly don't mind losing to Dave, if only because it likely pissed off half the Tory war room. And a big thanks to everyone who voted for Calgary Grit!


4. Voting is now open in the Liblogs video contest.


5. Obama swept all four primaries this weekend and is expected to win three more on Tuesday. While Hillary does currently lead due to super delegates, I suspect many of the undeclared super delegates will go Obama's way. Most of the "hypothetical" polls out there show Obama doing better versus McCain than Hillary and when your re-election is the on the line, you certainly take a look at things like that. Personally, I think those polls are worthless, a dumb way to make a decision, and are probably what got Kerry the nom last time. But people still read them and Obama is certainly no John Kerry.

And with the momentum he's got going for him, he's certainly the one I'd be betting on right now.

Super Tuesday...Wednesday Edition

Was out at a Super Tuesday party last night and I forgot to toss up an open thread beforehand so here's your chance to weigh in on the results. With California still counting, it's hard to get a firm delegate count, but all indications seem to point to Hillary winning the night slightly and being up by about 100 delegates overall, based on the strength of her "super delegate" (who comes up with these names?). Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington are up this weekend, followed by the Washington DC area on Tuesday...without looking at the polls, that would seem to be fertile Obama ground so this thing could be all knotted up a week from now. Or not. Who the hell knows?

On the Republican side, John McCain (whose french fries I adore) is sitting pretty. McCain was certainly their most electable candidate so it's not a huge surprise he's risen to the top. However, a bizarre "Republicans for Hillary" movement seems to have emerged - Ann Coulter (who shouldn't really be taken seriously) was talking about campaigning for Hillary against McCain last week. This morning on Newsworld, I caught Michael Reagan (Ronald's conservative son...not the Liberal one) calling her "Reaganesque" as he trashes McCain. You've got to think this means Huckabee will make the ticket as the VP but even then, McCain is going to have a tough time getting the staunch Conservatives out to vote, even if he soaks up a fair number of independents.


Updates and Other Links

• The Macleans gang have a lot to say.
• Expect a lot of analysis at Daily Kos throughout the day.

All's Quiet on the Northern Front...

...so let's look south to the land of corn, cold winters, and disproportionate political power!

Yes, today and Tuesday two states making up a cumulative 4% of the US population (less than Newfoundland vis-a-vis Canada; fun quiz - how did Stephane Dion do in Newfoundland during Liberal leadership race? Anyone? Anyone?) will, by and large, decide the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees. Or, at least they would in a normal year - the races are so tight this time around that the early primaries may only complicate things further...especially if the polls are to be believed and the front runners under perform.

For the Dems, Hillary is now third in Iowa, with a reduced lead in New Hampshire and nationally. For the Republicans it's Huckabee vs. Romney in Iowa and McCain vs. Romney in New Hampshire, for the right to be the "not Giuliani" candidate of this campaign.


UPDATE: A convincing win for Huckabee, which puts the pressure on Romney to win New Hampshire. Of note, Ron Paul picked up 10%, good enough for 5th, ahead of Rudy Giuliani.

For the Dems, it's Obama with 37% and Edwards and Clinton with 30% each.

I Heart Huckabees

While there is certainly "polling overload" going on right now in the states, it's clear that Mike Huckabee's surge is having a bit more success than Bush's. From Rasmussen:


Giuliani 20%
Huckabee 17%
Thompson 14%
McCain 13%
Romney 11%


While other polls have Giuliani breathing a bit easier, the general trend seems consistent. It's amazing what a little Chuck Norris will do for ya, eh?

Oh, and Huckabee and Obama are both leading in Iowa - fun times ahead...

If Only They'd Invited Colbert...

I happened to catch the second half of the Republican YouTube debate tonight. Safe to say, Canadian parties could learn a thing or two from this about how to make many-candidate leadership debates interesting. Here are a few random observations:


-Duncan Hunter: "Most army recruits are conservatives with deep judeo-christian values – that’s why we can’t have gays in the military". Whaaaaaaaaaa? Come back Daily Show! Your snark is needed!

-Huckabee on putting an American on Mars: “Maybe Hillary Clinton should be on the first rocket to Mars”.

-Huckabee on What would Jesus do on the death penalty: “Jesus was too smart to ever run for public office.”

-John McCain says the US didn’t lose the Vietnam War. I guess he also believes that John McCain didn’t lose the 2000 Republican nomination.

-Mitt Romney believes nothing he believed 10 years ago…

-When asked about the crumbling infrastructure in the United States, Ron Paul says there’s too much government so…uhh…privately owned roads anyone?

-John McCain says it was Ron Paul’s strategy that allowed Hitler to come to power. It's never a good sign when you're a Republican and running plays from Elizabeth May's strategy book.

-Ron Paul says he had 5,000 people show up at a rally “with flags and Hispanics”. Wow. Flags and hispanics - that must have been quite the organizational feat!

-Giuliani has trouble defending himself on immigration, guns, and...wait for it...baseball. You think he'd have a snappy comeback for his Red Sox rooting by now but he's still stumbling around on that one. My suggested answer for the next time he gets asked the question: "Not rooting for the Red Sox would mean the terrorists win. 9/11! 9/11! 9/11!" It doesn't have the Huckabee witt to it but at least it fits in with his overarching campaign theme.

-Kudos to Fred Thompson for skipping his 120th birthday celebrations to attend the debate.

-Thompson’s youtube video goes after Romney and Huckabee on abortion and taxes. It’s a bad sign when your campaign feels that Mike Huckabee is worthy of an attack add.

-According to the pundits, immigration is the number one issue in Iowa. Go figure.

-A CNN commercial calls this debate “one for the history books”. That may be a bit of a stretch.

Morning Round-Up

1. Yesterday, Dave Bronconnier declared September as "yellow ribbon month" in Calgary. While the timing is a bit suspect, rumour has it that October will be declared "provincial/municipal funding agreement awareness month" or "celebration of overpass construction month".



2. Brian Mulroney is in the news for "lashing out" against Pierre Trudeau. To be clear, this is a former Prime Minister trashing another former Prime Minister who has been dead for seven years, over things the later did a quarter century before becoming PM. Real classy Brian - good to see you aren't bitter or anything.

The Calgary Sun calls it a "clash of the titans", but I'm not sure it can really be considered a clash when one of the "clashers" isn't really able to, you know, respond.



3. Fred Thompson has jumped into the Presidential race and I'd have to peg him as the odds on favourite to take the Republican nomination at this point. The same way a lot of Liberals are longing for another Trudeau, one imagines a lot of Republicans would love to find the next Reagan and Thompson will probably be close enough for many of them.




4. Interesting move for McGuinty to release his full platform over a month before election day.




5. For those who missed it on Saturday, here's the link to Andrew Coyne's "politics here is uniquely stupid" column. Gotta agree, at least partially.

Four Quick Hits

Municipal, provincial, federal, and American political links on this Labour Day Monday.


Municipal: The Alnoor Kassam campaign will be running the first batch of radio ads this week, on traffic. They're kind of cute, so feel free to give them a listen here.


Provincial: Apparently Ed Stelmach is getting the always unpleasant Mr. Dithers label, according to the Globe. As much as I'm not a fan of Stelmach, I've actually never heard him called Mr. Dithers. I've heard "Unsteady Eddie", "Mr. Ed", "Special Ed", "Harry Strom Jr." and about 50 other insults, but never Dithers. The article also has this inspirational quote:

“Will there be people without homes? Yes. Will there be some sick people that we can't save, despite all the medical technology that we have? Yes, there will be. But people are continuing to move here because where else are they going to go in Canada?”

I think we may have a new slogan to replace wild rose province. "Alberta: Where else are you gonna go?"


Federal: The Tories continue to try and neutralize the Afghanistan issue.


US: Lots of Republicans seem to get themselves into sex scandals. And, for whatever reason, a large percentage of them seem to be gay sex scandals.

Indecision '08

For those curious how the political stock markets are calling the US Presidential campaign:

Dem Nominee

Clinton 49.3%

Obama 30.5%

Gore 8.7%

Edwards 5.3%

Republican Nominee

Giuliani 32.5%
Thompson 31.2%

Romney 22.5%

McCain 8.5%