Lessons from Naheed

Generally speaking, the rest of Canada treats Alberta politics as nothing more than a punch line:

"Calgary: If you don't like the weather, wait 40 minutes. If you don't like the government, wait 40 years".

"The Alberta government is considering adding 'Liberals' to the endangered species list".

That sort of stuff.

Because of that, no one in Ontario would dare use an Alberta election as a case study of anything other than political silliness. And you won't see many gushing articles on "the genius of Naheed Nenshi" the same way you will about "the genius of Rob Ford" (Ford has promised lower taxes and played to the suburbs, where all the voters live. It's genius! What political mastermind could ever have thought of that!).

But there's a lot the rest of Canada can learn from last night's stunner in Calgary.


1. Social media matters: I've always had my doubts about the usefulness of social media in general elections. Yeah, yeah, you need to do it so the media includes you in their story about what the kids these days are blogging on the Tweeter and the Facebooks, but I've always been skeptical about how many votes it actually moves.

In this case, I would argue it made all the difference. Intentionally or not, the Nenshi campaign has become the best example I've seen of Malcolm Gladwell's Tipping Point theory applied to politics. The simple version of Gladwell's argument is this:

A. For an epidemic, attitude or idea to take off, it must first gain traction among mavens, the "information brokers" of society. Obviously enough, most Calgarians weren't following mayoral candidates on Twitter this July - especially ones as obscure as Naheed Nenshi. But information brokers - the media and politicos - were. Because of this, Nenshi was able to use social media to solidify himself as the de facto "third" candidate in this race, over more recognizable faces like Kent Hehr, Wayne Stewart or Bob Hawkesworth.

B. Once an idea sets in, the connectors need to spread it. Ten thousand supporters on Facebook is impressive, but it's just 1% of the City of Calgary. However, when those 10,000 supporters start posting stories about Naheed on their Facebook page to be seen by their hundreds of friends...you start to reach a critical mass. That's why things tipped so suddenly in Nenshi's favour over the course of two or three weeks.

The real success of Nenshi's social media campaign was that it broke free of the political echo chamber. To have a tangible impact, you need to reach the non-political crowd...the kind of people who will actually change their mind based on a news story or video they see online. So the Nenshi campaign reached out to the non-political, spreading their message to places like hockey forums and online discussion boards.

The proof that Nenshi broke free of the political bubble are those 10,000 Facebook supporters - an impressive figure when you consider that Harper and Ignatieff only have 3 times that number despite having 30 times the electorate to work with.


2. Polls matter: More than ever before, polls are driving the narrative. The early buzz was all about McIver and Higgins, with Nenshi an afterthought, caught in a pack of 10 legitimate candidates grasping for air.

Then one poll showed him at 8%. Factor in the margin of error on a small sample poll where most respondents are undecided, and he was basically in Oscar Fech territory. But suddenly, Mr. 8% was seen as a the "leader of the pack" and began getting attention accordingly. With each new poll, words like "momentum" and "surging" were used to describe him.

Then, we had the real election game changer: A Leger poll with a week to go showing McIver at 32%, Higgins at 30%, and Nenshi at 30%.

Maybe those numbers were accurate, maybe Nenshi was already in first, maybe he was stuck in the mid-20s. We don't know. We do know that if the poll had shown him in the low-to-mid 20s, say 8 or 10 points back of Barb Higgins, it's a whole different ballgame, with Nenshi voters jumping to Higgins instead of the reverse.


3. Policy Matters: Not so much the policies themselves, but the perception of having policies.

Though Naheed might disagree with me, I'm willing to bet if you stopped Calgarians as they exited the voting booths, most of them couldn't name you a single one of Nenshi's policies. Sure, they'd tell you he was going to improve transit, they'd tell you he had a great vision for an inclusive city, they'd tell you he had lots of ideas about accountability. But press them for specifics and they'd be grasping for answers like Barb Higgins on a breakfast TV interview.

Yet at the same time, if you asked voters which candidate had the best policies, they'd all say Nenshi. After all, he's the guy who memorizes neighbourhood density statistics the way sports junkies know how many goals their favourite hockey players scored last year. Nenshi was releasing policies and his image was of "the policy guy", so everyone assumed he had a plan.

That was the idea behind the Liberal red book in 1993. No one ever read the red book, but knowing it was there projected the imagine that there was a plan and a vision.

Talking to non-political Calgarians I know, their biggest complaint with Higgins was that they didn't know what she stood for. These same people didn't really know what exactly Nenshi stood for but they knew he stood for something.

Which was more than could be said about his opponents.


4. Release your platform early to define yourself: Nenshi jumped out of the gate, releasing policy throughout the summer, when only the "mavens" were paying attention. When you lack name recognition, you need to do this to define yourself - and even when you have name recognition, it's not a bad idea.

Everyone knew about the common sense revolution before the 1995 Ontario election. In 2005, Stephen Harper released his platform before Christmas, while the Liberals were off caroling. In the current Toronto election, Rob Ford defined himself early on by repeating the words "gravy train" twenty times a day.

Even if the general public isn't paying attention, it's important to define yourself early, so that when they do tune in, they know what you're all about.


5. Front runners cannot afford to be complacent. We've seen this happen time and time again - in leadership races and general elections. This race had two complacent front runners, trying to out complacency each other. So the electorate found someone else to vote for.


6. Religion doesn't matter in Canada: Did you know Nenshi was Muslim? You probably didn't until today. It wasn't an issue.


7. Political affiliation doesn't matter municipally: As the saying goes, snow removal isn't a right wing or left wing issue. After 20 years of openly Liberal mayors, Calgarians picked the progressive option over the conservative or the Rod Love approved candidate.


8. Be Yourself: Naheed's a geeky policy wonk. He didn't pretend to be anything else.


9. Present a positive vision, but attack when necessary. Nenshi released scathing editorials on his opponents throughout the campaign, but he always attacked them on policy by explaining why their ideas were wrong...and followed it up with what he'd do better. It's a simple way to construct an attack, and it's almost always the most effective.

Unless, of course, your opponent kicks children in the face. Then you can have at them!



What others are saying...
DJ Kelly looks at the new City Council
The Commons recaps the day that was
Don Martin on Cowtown's new image
Kevin Libin on how Nenshi won
Labrador shows us the electoral map - Nenshi cleans up downtown and did quite well in the west and north

Calgary Votes Live Blog

10:35 pm: We're ready to call it. Calgary's next mayor:



Yes, that's right. Canada's conservative heartland just elected a mayor who is a visible minority, practicing muslim, Harvard graduate, university professor, and a policy wonk. And he wears purple.

Nenshi's rise is truly astonishing when you consider that he was polling in single digits, 35 points back of first, just four weeks ago. Sure, he had a bunch of Twitter followers and had released more policy than anyone else in the race, but the election was all about McIver versus Higgins. The problem was, neither McIver nor Higgins were saying much of anything.

So, poll after poll, Nenshi kept rising. He kept offering solutions to the problems facing the city, while McIver and Higgins argued over the proper amount to increase property taxes by. In the end, Calgary voters showed they weren't hung up on image, on name recognition, or on political affiliation. They voted for the best candidate, and the best candidate won.

This was a good day for democracy.



10:03 pm: Bad sign for Ric McIver. The volunteer they send out to speak on his behalf calls him "MacGyver". At this point, it may take MacGyver to get Ric out of the mess he's in, because Nenshi keeps pulling away.


9:59 pm: In the more interesting race, for last:

Oscar Fech 25
Gary F. Johnson 30
Amanda Liu 32

And Wayne Stewart (380) leads among the candidates who aren't actually in the race any more...


9:58 pm: The Nenshi HQ numbers have him up around 13,000 to 9,000 (McIver) to 8,000 (Higgins) based on their scrutineer numbers.


9:48 pm: Well that didn't take long. Higgins falls down to third as McIver's home ward (12) and downtown north (ward 7) come in.

Nenshi 7681
McIver 7513
Higgins 6239


9:39 pm: The results to date -

Higgins 3860
McIver 3661
Nenshi 3267

But the far south wards (McIver country) and the city centre/NE/campus wards (Nenshi country) are still to come. I still think Higgins might wind up in third when all is said and done.


8:59 pm: ...and CTV is going to "Dancing with the Stars". Because, yeah, it's been an exciting election and all but, at the end of the day, we all really want to know how Bristol Palin is doing.


8:49 pm: Steve Mandel projected to be re-elected as mayor of Edmonton.


8:46 pm: CTV shows us the race in Pincher Creek - Rob Buckner is wearing a ballcap in his official campaign picture. The Calgary Grit decision desk is going to call that race for Bucker right now, with 0% of polls reporting.


8:21 pm: We have results! The first poll is in...presumably from Barb Higgins' street. Barb has 26 votes, giving her a 20 vote lead on Naheed.


8:09 pm: Darrel Janz is wearing a purple tie on the CTV broadcast. Is this a slight to his old co-host?


7:45 pm (mountain time!): I'm coming to you live from the Calgary ex-pat election night party in Toronto, surrounded by purple t-shirts, Barb Higgins haircuts, and Ric McIver action figures (pull the string and he says...nothing - just like Ric!).

I'll be updating the results and adding commentary as it comes in, while dishing out the numbers on aldermanic races and maybe even some Edmonton results. Hell, you might even get some hockey scores and weather forecasts while I'm at it!

While you wait, you can read my profiles of the candidates (here, here, and here), my endorsement of Nenshi, and my consternation at how Rob Ford could be the next mayor of Toronto and Naheed Nenshi could be next mayor of Calgary.

Calgary Votes

Today, Calgarians cast their ballots for mayor. Well, some Calgarians will. The City has a well deserved reputation for being one of the most apathetic when it comes to democracy - one-third of Calgarians voted in 2007, one-fifth in 2004.

This time around, there are no execuses to stay home. Calgarians have close to a dozen legitimate candidates for mayor to choose from. And Oscar Fech! More importantly, there's a real race for the top, with three very different frontrunners in a statistical dead heat for the top prize.

While I don't have a vote, I actually like all three of the candidates at the top. Sure McIver is a Conservative, but he's not a scary socon or a buffoon, and he certainly has the experience to make a good Mayor. Higgins brings an outsider's perspective to the race and would be a great representative for Calgary. She's well spoken, affable, and likable. Had she committed herself to running for mayor earlier and developed a coherent vision for the city, there's little doubt she would have won.

Then there's Naheed. I won't call this an endorsement, because candidates I endorse usually don't do very well, but if I were living in Calgary today, he'd have my vote.

Quite simply, a win for Nenshi would be a win for substance over style. Naheed has run an issues-based campaign from the start, releasing his "better ideas" throughout the summer. The man has been writing about how to make Calgary a better city for years and he may finally get a chance to do that. He understands city council and city planning better than most of the current councilors, yet at the same time he'd be coming in as an outsider, ready and willing to shake things up and break Calgary free of the NIMBY mindset that has plagued City Hall for years.

Back in August, when I profiled the candidates, here's what I wrote about Naheed:

Naheed is brilliant and has, hands down, the best ideas of any candidate on how to run Calgary. So, of course, he will not win.

So come on Calgary - prove me wrong!


Voting Information - Hours, where to vote, etc...


Previous Calgary Votes Coverage

-Candidate Profiles: McIver, Higgins, Nenshi

-Nenshi, Lord, Burrows, and Connelly Calgary Grit survey responses

-What's the matter with Calgary

NOTE: I'll be live blogging the results tonight once the polls close, so be sure to tune in.

What's the matter with Calgary?

Dear Calgary,

You used to be cool. You were the conservative rebel without a cause. You welcomed George Bush and Sarah Palin with open arms. You could always be counted on for a good pro-Iraq war rally. Ann Coulter called you "the good Canadians".

The man who embodied this Calgary image was Ralph Klein. He was your mayor in the 80s. By voting for Ralph in 1993, you saved Alberta from a Liberal government. You stood by your man even after the drunken visits to homeless shelters, after the plagiarism, after he heckled the AISH recipients. The rest of the country laughed at Ralph, but you didn't care. Because, like Ralph, you were too cool to care.

This all led to a good natured rivalry with Toronto. In 2004, Scott Reid famously said "Alberta can blow me" during the election campaign. A decade earlier, you'd pasted "Let the Eastern Bastards Freeze in the Dark" bumper stickers on your trucks. That was just the sort of relationship Calgary and Toronto have always had.

And you know what? The relationship worked. Calgarians hated the Toronto elites for their self-righteousness and their blind devotion to the Liberal Party, while the self righteous Toronto elites shook their heads and wondered what was wrong with those backwater Calgarians who would elect a donkey if you slapped a Tory logo on its behind.

But now, everything has gone topsy turvy. Here's the Leger mayoral poll from yesterday's Calgary Herald:

Nenshi has now rocketed to 30 per cent, tied with Higgins and just behind Ric McIver's 33 per cent support, according to a Leger Marketing survey of 500 Calgarians conducted between Oct. 6 and 11.

Holy chinook?!? The "it" candidate in the Calgary election went to Harvard, ran a nonprofit, and blogs about the best ways to limit urban sprawl. Rosedale parents are going to have a hard time using that to turn their children against Calgary and scare them into voting Liberal.

Especially given what's been going on in Toronto, where the front runner wants to limit immigration, says "oriental people work like dogs", and has a record of DUI and assault charges so long it would make Ralph Klein blush.

I mean, seriously. Take a look at these two pictures and tell me which one of these guys looks like he should be mayor of Toronto and which one looks like he should be mayor of Calgary:


And it's not just Naheed. The "conservative" candidate in Calgary's mayoral election, Ric McIver, has staked out the conservative turf by...promising to raise taxes less than the other candidates. Hell, he's been attacked by the NDP candidate in the race for wanting to spend too much on the airport tunnel. The guy isn't exactly the president of Tea Party North.

The other front runner, Barb Higgins, is assumed to be progressive but, in fairness to her, that's only because no one really knows what she stands for.

So Calgary, I'm writing you this letter as a friend. I feel someone has to let you know you've gone soft. Hell, you elected 5 Liberal MLAs in the last provincial election, more than "Redmonton". Here's an e-mail I got from a friend of mine in Calgary yesterday:

I for one, being a proud Western Canadian, welcome 4 years of insanity to the city of Toronto. I have always maintained that the real crazies in Canada live or reside in the city of Toronto, Mel Lastman proved that and may Mayor Ford continue that proud tradition.

All I know is that wack jobs like Lastman, Miller and Ford would never see the light of day in a sophisticated Canadian locale like Calgary, Alberta.

Is this how you want to be described Calgary? As "sophisticated"?

So I am begging you. To stop this insanity and preserve your reputation as Canada's conservative bad boy, I am urging a massive "Rob Anders write in" campaign for mayor. You need to make this happen, simply to keep the natural order of the universe in balance.

Or else next thing you know they'll be holding Pierre Trudeau parades down 17th Avenue and Stanley Cup parades down Yonge Street.

Stampede to the Polls: Barb Higgins

Previous Profiles:
Ric McIver
Kent Hehr
Naheed Nenshi


The general consensus in Calgary seems to be that the mayoral race sits as:

1. McIver
2. Higgins
3. Nenshi

Sure, guys like Bob Hawkesworth and Wayne Stewart are still in the mix but...well...life is too short to blog about Bob Hawkesworth. As such, this will be the fourth and final instalment of my 2,372 part series profiling mayoral candidates.

Today, the wild card.



Barb Higgins




About Barb

Barb was born in Edmonton - something which will no doubt form the basis of nasty attack ads should the campaign get dirty. At the age of 27, she took over as an anchor at CTV Calgary News. For the next 21 years, Higgins and her co-anchor, Darrel Janz, were among most recognizable Calgarians around.

Higgins was a latecomer to the mayoral race - she declared in early August to much fanfare, but her campaign has yet to take off. Early on, she was criticized for lacking substance and concrete plans. Last week she axed her campaign manager, Don Lovett, replacing him with Alan Hallman. Regardless of what you think of Lovett or Hallman, replacing your campaign manager mid contest is not the sign of a healthy campaign.


Website
(Appearance: 7/10, Functionality 7/10, Content 7/10, Uniqueness 5/10, Overall 7/10)

Higgins' site covers the bases. Candidate's picture in front of Calgary skyline? Check. Easy to donate or tell a friend? Check. Visible link to her platform? Check. YouTube intro and social media links? Check.

Much like the candidate, there isn't a lot to get excited about, but the site serves its purpose.


Social Media

Facebook: 1165 fans (well behind both Nenshi and McIver)
Twitter: 1348 followers (similar to McIver, but well behind Nenshi)
YouTube: 17 videos with 24,475 views


My Take

Barb says her motto is "be bold", but she's been anything but this campaign. After taking a beating in the press for a lack of ideas, she finally released her platform last week. Yes, there are some tangible things in there - an end to park and ride fees and extending recycling programs to apartments and condos. But you need to strain your eyes to find concrete ideas - most of the platform is as clear as mud. Among the highlights:

I would like to see business taxes reduced. I would not go so far as to eliminate business taxes because that would mean a drop in revenues to the City of $150 million, and I do not think the City has the capacity to do that at this time. I would add, however, that I have had good discussions with the Chamber of Commerce and as mayor would seek to develop an ongoing dialogue between the Mayor’s Office, City Council and small and medium-sized businesses to make the right decisions about business tax rates.

[...]

I believe Enmax should remain in the hands of Calgarians. That said; it is time to re-visit Enmax’s overall mandate. I will ensure that their activities in generating and transmitting electricity and other business ventures remain in the best interests of Calgarians, and that Calgarians are receiving a proper return on investment;

[...]

Almost all of our amateur sports and recreational facilities are at or over capacity. I am committed to working with our amateur sports community to expand these facilities, in particular for minor hockey and minor soccer.

Yes, it's not any less bold than anything that has come out of the Ric McIver platitude machine. But it's not any different. And therein lies the problem.

When you're in second place behind a competent and well organized campaign, you need something to differentiate yourself. At this point, the only real area of disagreement between Higgins and McIver seems to be on property taxes, with Higgins wanting them to be slightly higher than McIver. Hardly the stuff that will encourage one of the most apathetic electorates in Canada to vote for you.

With two weeks to go, the smart money is on a strong second for Higgins. She'll most likely need a game changer to pull this one out, especially if Nenshi continues to drain votes off the left.

Right Turn

Polls out today show fiscal conservatives ahead in Calgary and Toronto.


Calgary (Leger, n=500 phone)

Ric McIver 43% (profile)
Barb Higgins 28%
Naheed Nenshi 8% (profile)
Kent Hehr 4.1% (profile)
Bob Hawkesworth 3.9%
Craig Burrows 3.6%
Joe Connely 2.9%
Wayne Stewart 1.8%
Alnoor Kassam 1.4%
Oscar Fech 1.2%
Bonnie Devine 0.8%
Paul Hughes 0.8%
John Lord 0.4%

Kassam and Hughes are actually out of the race. Likely a wise move, because if you're tied with Oscar Fech, it's time to go (Oscar's platform usually involves digging up gold buried under City Hall).

The results from this poll are hardly earth shattering. McIver has been the front runner for the past 5 years and Higgins is still finding her feet in this race. However, the news isn't all bad for her - 15 points can be made up in month municipally, and she is clearly positioned as the "anybody but McIver" candidate. Nenshi is still far back, but can at least spin this as a sign he's pulling away from the pack. For the rest of the field, there's little joy in mudville.


Toronto (Nanos, n = 1221 phone)

Ford 45.8%
Smitherman 21.3%
Pantalone 16.8%
Rossi 9.7%
Thompson 6.4%

This poll will come as more of a shock for anyone living outside of Toronto. Yes, those "Liberal elites" John Baird rails against are lining up behind a man who could become Canada's first Tea Party mayor.

For those in Toronto, it's not as big a shock. Ford has become the torch bearer for every suburban voter fed up with waste at City Hall and has forged a Ralph Klein common man connection to voters, to the point where voters will forgive his many deficiencies.

Luckily, as is the case in Calgary, there's still a lot of baseball to be played and many voters are just now tuning in this episode already in progress. Right now, the "Stop Ford" vote is being split - by Election Day it will congeal, presumably around Smitherman.

Still, the early returns are strikingly similar in both Calgary in Toronto - in both cities, voters have clicked their right turn signal, looking to the candidate who talks the loudest about cleaning up waste at City Hall.

Stampede to the Polls: Naheed Nenshi

Previous Profiles:
Ric McIver
Kent Hehr

In the third instalment of my 484 part series profiling Calgary mayoral candidates, I look at a man who has been writing about how Calgary should be run for many years. And he's finally decided to do something about it.


Naheed Nenshi

About Naheed: Naheed is a professor, a Harvard graduate, and a writer. Elitist.

He's best known for his work with the Better Calgary Campaign and his op-eds about how the City of Calgary should be run.


Website
(Appearance: 3/10, Functionality 8/10, Content 8/10, Uniqueness 6/10, Overall 7/10)

Although I wonder how many grimaces had to die to get enough purple for the website, it remains a solid campaign site, rich in content and policy. Of particular interest are the 8 "better Calgary" ideas - each one easily explained in a line then elaborated on in pdf and podcast formats.

While the site has everything you'd expect from a political website, it doesn't have the polished look or feel of most campaign sites. Rather than being greeted by a picture of the candidate and the Calgary skyline, you get a slogan and homemade Youtube video on the welcome page. And, you know what, that's fine by me. Nenshi doesn't look or sound like a polished politician and he's not trying to be one - why should his website?


Social Media

Ahh...if only elections were held on Twitter, Nenshi would soon adding mayoral hashtags to his name.

Twitter: 1,549 followers and over 3,000 tweets.
Facebook: 2,053 fans
Youtube: Around 7,500 views of his home page video
Blog: A campaign blog that includes attacks on the front runners.
He also has an iPhone ap (pictured to the right) for those times when hourly Twitter updates won't provide you with the Naheed fix you need


My Take: Naheed is brilliant and has, hands down, the best ideas of any candidate on how to run Calgary. So, of course, he will not win.

That said, Naheed has done everything an outsider with low name recognition can do to break free of the pack. He's released ideas, he's gone hard at social media, he's gotten his name into as many news articles as possible.

Even though a lot of the candidates for mayor aren't doing much more than taking up space, having a policy wizzard like Naheed out there talking about ideas is good for this mayoral race and it's good for Calgary.

Stampede to the Polls: Kent Hehr Profile

Previous profile:
Ric McIver

For whatever reason, the city that burns Pierre Trudeau in effogy and hasn't elected a federal Liberal since 1968 has a habit of puting Liberals in charge. Dave Broconnier ran for the federal Liberals before making a run for mayor. His predecessor Al Duerr was openly Liberal. Even Mayor Ralph Klein mused about running for the federal grits, though it's highly probable he was intoxicated at the time.

So no one should count out the Liberal flag bearer in this race:


Kent Hehr

About Kent: Born and raised in Calgary, this former sports star was sent to a wheelchair at the age of 22. Since then, his list of accomplishments is long - one of Calgary's "top 40 under 40", the U of C's "Graduate of the last Decade" in 2005, and, most remarkably, being elected as a Liberal in Calgary.


Website
(Appearance: 8/10, Functionality 8/10, Content 6/10, Uniqueness 4/10, Overall 7/10)

Like every candidate in this race, Kent greets you to his page with a picture of him in front of the Calgary skyline. Unlike other candidates, Kent sits in front of the city in a wheelchair.

Hehr's campaign has put a heavy focus on social media, droping the action buttons lower on the main page in favour of his Twitter updates and Facebook profile. A series of short videos can also be found on the main page, introducing voters to Kent.

Although there's a lot on the website, it avoids looking too clutered.


Social Media

1294 Twitter followers - Kent tweets frequently
714 Facebook fans
A couple hundred YouTube views, but four videos are easy to access on his website's main page.


My Take: It's hard not to like Kent. He has a compelling backstory, works hard, and is an all-around great guy. He'd probably make the best Mayor of anyone in the race so I wish him the best of luck.

As for his chances? He's still very much a longshot. I know Liberals do succeed municipally in Calgary, but I have a hard time seeing Kent significantly expand from his downtown base.

Stampede to the Polls: Ric McIver Profile

If I'm going to earn the right to keep the "Calgary" prefix on this blog's name, I feel it's my responsibility to cover Calgary politics. As such, I begin the first of my 764 part series, profiling the gaggle of candidates vying to replace Dave Bronconnier as Mayor of Calgary.

Sadly, with Craig Chandler siting out the race, Calgary doesn't have a mayoral candidate as nutilly right wing as Rob Ford. This is something I will take great pleasure in pointing out the next time a Torontonian tries to portray Calgary as conservative backwater.

However, after 20 years of Liberal mayors, we do have a Conservative frontrunner in this race.

Ric McIver

About Ric: Don't let the mustache fool you, McIver is as conservative as they come. His first campaign manager was none other than the aforementioned Craig Chandler and you can find pictures on Ric's flickr account of him volunteering for Stephen Harper and speaking at a rally against the undemocratic socialist separatist coalition. The site also contains pictures of Ric wearing nothing but a Conservative Party t-shirt.

On council, McIver has spent the last 9 years as the unofficial "opposition leader" to Mayor Bronconnier, earning his "Doctor No" nickname. He has railed against wasteful spending. He led the yellow ribbon charge. He's opposed Bronco's attempts to build bridges.

So it comes as no surprise to anyone that McIver is running for mayor or that he leads all other candidates in terms of name recognition.


Website
(Appearance: 7/10, Functionality 7/10, Content 4/10, Uniqueness 3/10, Overall 6/10)

McIver has run a cautious campaign, and he has produced a cautious website. Candidate smiling in front of Calgary? Check. Donation, Volunteer, and Take Action buttons? Check. Some pictures here, some press releases there? Check. But really, there's little to get excited about on this site. Which is fine - McIver has name recognition, money and volunteers. He doesn't need an aggressive online presence.


Social Media

892 Twitter followers - Ric tweets every few days
1691 Facebook fans
1995 Youtube views - but all his channel has are 2 slide shows


My Take: I actually don't have a problem with Ric, and not just because I made a bet last year that he'd win this election. Even if I don't agree with him, he's always been consistent and true to his principles.

However...colour me unimpressed with his campaign to date. The man has gone from Doctor No to Mister Sure. Airport tunnel? Sure! Ring road? Sure! If you read Ric's "vision" of Calgary, it certainly doesn't sound any more conservative than NDPer Bob Hawkesworth's. Hell, Hawkesworth is against the airport tunnel because it's too expensive.

Beyond that, McIver's one page vision is nothing more than municipal buzzword mad gab.

"Building complete communities where Calgarians can live, work and play without long commutes."
"Thoughtful development of our transit system, continued work on our road network and
intelligent downtown parking policies will help re-vitalize the core."
"Budgeting will be responsible, taxes justified and transparent"

This isn't just me being a jerk and picking out select lines - in McIver's one page "complete vision", the most exciting piece of policy he tosses out is a promise of "smart snow removal strategy". I have no clue what this means, but I'm hoping it involves Mr Plow.

In fairness to Ric, there's no need for him to release his full platform this early in the race, and I expect the surprise entry of Barb Higgins will lead to a bolder campaign than he would have otherwise run. But, so far, McIver appears content running a typical frontrunner campaign.

Let's Get Municipal

Calgary: Calgary is still buzzing over Barb Higgins' entry into the Mayoral race, and there are reports she has hired Liberal strategist Don Lovett as her campaign manager.

On the policy side, frontrunner Ric McIver has released his vision for Calgary, and Higgins has responded with her "policy framework". Both are bland, unoriginal, and short on specifics (the platforms, not the candidates, both of whom I find intriguing). Fellow candidate Naheed Nenshi offers a strong critique of these policy "announcements" on his site.

The airport tunnel is emerging as a big issue. True to the bizarre nature of Calgary politics, the right wing candidate wants to spend and the NDP proxy in this race thinks it's a waste of money. Go figure.


Toronto: With John Tory out of the race, it's now very much a Smitherman versus Ford affair.

And the Smitherman campaign is starting to turn up the heat, launching an attack "FordonFord" website.


Edmonton: Edmonton Politics is the must see source for this one. Also, Alex Abboud runs down the hotly contested ward races.


Montreal: Speculation is now rampant about the next mayoral election...in 2013. Good grief, we'll probably have 2 or 3 federal elections before then.

Regardless, the latest rumour has Denis Coderre making the jump to municipal politics. My anonymous Liberal sources have also confided to me that Martin Cauchon is now considering a run for Montreal mayor in 2013.


Dauphin: Tory MLA Inky Marr is running for mayor. Which means, in Inky's opinion, being a backbencher in Stephen Harper's caucus is a less glamourous position than being mayor of a town of 8,000 people.

This Week in Calgary - Wild Race in Cowtown!

Ever since a down-to-earth reporter stunned everyone 30 years ago, Calgary's incumbent mayors have enjoyed cake walk after cake walk to re-election. They do their 3 or 4 terms, then ride off on horseback into the sunset, setting off a feeding frenzy to replace them.

So welcome to the feeding frenzy.

Dave Bronconnier announced in February that he wouldn't be seeking a fourth term, setting off wildfire speculation. Here's a rundown of some of the names being bandied about to replace him. I'm probably overlooking some, so be sure to add any others in the comments section.

Ric McIver (all but declared): McIver is my former alderman and the horse I'd put money on in this race - he's been organizing and fundraising for a long time, and can always get a good quote in the media. He's the torch bearer for the right wing in this race which, oddly enough, may work against him - despite the city's reputation, Calgary's last two mayors have been openly Liberal.

Kent Hehr (expected to run): Kent won back Calgary Buffalo for the Alberta Liberals last provincial election. Hehr, who has been confined to a wheelchair since being shot as a bystander in 1991, would make a very compelling foil to McIver should he decide to enter the race.

Naheed Nenshi (considering a run): Naheed is the head of the Better Calgary Coalition - should he run, I fully expect Naheed to be the anti-politician of the race, focusing on policy and taking on the NIMBY groups. It's hard to say how successful a campaign like that would be, but his candidacy would certainly bring a lot to the race.

Alnoor Kassam (thinking it over): This was my guy in 2007, when he took on Dave. Alnoor starts the campaign with more name recognition than most thanks to the green stop signs, but the barrage of negative media he was hit with in 2007 means he'll need to rebuild his image if he wants to run again.

Joe Connelly (declared): Connelly pulled off the upset in Ward 6 last election and has declared early, in a bid to generate some Joementum. His website is up, and features a buzzword bonanza, including promises such as "Delivery of services through transparent leadership conducting real consultation, followed by strategically planning and executing with precision."

Jon Lord (declared): This former Tory MLA is most famous for citing his membership in MENSA on a campaign brochure. His website projects his campaign as being a tad amateur and a tad verbose (Did you know Jon developed "the ISO 9000, the world's best efficiency and effectiveness business process re-engineering methodology"? Me neither.). But Lord gets major marks from me for mentioning "The Borg" in his principles section.

John Hughes (declared): Described as "an urban chicken activist". This tells you all you need to know about his candidacy.

Wayne Stewart (gauging support): A retied oil executive and former head of a local homeless foundation could appeal across the political spectrum.


Also Rumoured: Former Alderman Craig Burrows, the ageless Bob Hawkesworth, Diane Colley-Urquhart (who finished third in the Glenmore by election, running for the PCs), former alderman Brian Lee, Dave Taylor (who has denied interest, saying he's too old), Alberta's representative in DC Gary Mar, former solicitor general Harvey Cenaiko, Frank McKenna, Paul Hellyer, The professor and Mary Ann.

Calgary Votes

And vote they did. With nearly twice as many voters casting ballots as in 2004, there were some very encouraging results from the municipal election last night. Brian Pincott, the new ward 11 alderman, will be a breath of fresh air on council. Three incumbent aldermen went down in defeat - a truly shocking result for an establishment city. Council will be far better off with Joe Connolly than Craig Burrows and I'm hopeful George Chahal can sneak out a recount victory in ward 3.

As for the Mayor's race, I was hoping for a slightly higher total for Alnoor, but I'm fairly happy with the results - 17% of the vote makes it the top challenge of an incumbent mayor in 27 years. More importantly, his presence in the race got people (if not the media) talking about issues, boosted voter turn-out, and gave Calgary a real race. Given Calgary's historical voting trends, Bronconnier's 61% of the vote is a real slap in the face and it will hopefully send a message that changes need to be made. I think he'll take the message to heart and, given his political skills, I expect him to do a good job over the next three years.

Go Vote!

Monday is municipal Election Day and, after fewer than 1 in 5 Calgarians voted in the last municipal election, I’d encourage all my Calgary readers to take a few minutes from their time to cast a ballot. Hell, if you’re surfing blogs right now, you can’t use the “I’m too busy” excuse. Since the City decided against sending out “where do I vote” cards, if you’re looking for your voting station, you’ll need to click here.

While I could give a somewhat unbiased run down of the candidates, if the Herald’s not going to be impartial, I don’t see why a freaking blog should. What I can do is point you towards the Enlightened Savage who has an AMAZING recap of all the candidates for all the positions. Incredibly detailled - it's well worth the read. As for me, here’s why I’m voting for my guy.

I think the most important thing to do is to send a message. Calgary is, above all else, an establishment city. In the past 27 years, the incumbent mayor has won every time. It’s never even been close. The strongest challenge against an incumbent in that time was Ray Clark, who garnered 17% of the vote in 1998. I think Calgarians need to send a message in this election that the City is off track in some key areas.

The “roads, roads, and more roads” doctrine that swept Bronconnier into power twice has not worked. Traffic has worsened and Calgary Transit, despite high ridership numbers, has fallen behind where it should be. Public Transit only works if it’s accessible and enjoyable to ride. To make it accessible, we need to get the West and South-East LRT legs built. To make it enjoyable, we need to get four car trains running on existing routes, to ease congestion. Bronconnier’s proposal to expand the C-Train further north-east and north-west before building the south-east line or going to four car trains will just mean more overcrowding, turning more people off of the transit option. That's why Alnoor wants to get 4 car trains on the system and create new lines before expanding the existing, overcrowded ones.

Another key plank is transparency and accountability. Despite the howls Calgary raised towards the federal government on accountability issues, there are no rules right now at the municipal level. There is no ethics commissioner. There is no municipal auditor general. There are no campaign finance rules. Barry Erskine walked away from his job 4 days before the election and his entire war chest is his to keep. Bronconnier hasn’t ruled out using his sizeable war chest to run for MP or MLA. There’s also no real estate registry so there’s no way to know if elected officials are in conflict of interest on votes that can dramatically change property values.

The third issue that I personally feel strongly about is the secondary suite one. Right now, there are thousands of illegal secondary suites across Calgary because it’s illegal to rent out your basement in most parts of the city. Legalizing secondary suites would ensure the current suites are safe and would add thousands of units of rental space to the market.

Those are just the issues that grabbed me the most. Feel free to browse the full platform if taxes, the environment, or crime are the things that get you going.

I wouldn’t say that Bronconnier has been a bad Mayor. Far from it. But there is just so much potential in this city and it’s important to send a message that there needs to be a shift in some key areas. And the best way to send a message is by voting for Alnoor Kassam.

Would that have been my choice? Probably not.

The mayoral debates were held last night and I must say I found it quite enjoyable. You get a wide range of characters up on stage at things like this ("all my clothes are recycled except for my pantyhose").

The debate featured some lively exchanges between Alnoor and Dave on taxes, secondary suites, and accountability. Anything else I could add would just be subjective so, instead, I'll turn things over to the Better Calgary Campaign who, I might add, have already endorsed Dave Bronconnier (with reservations...growing reservations one imagines):

To quickly recap, a member of the audience complained that the Tourism Calgary, an agency partially funded by the city, had promoted Calgary as a friendly destination for gay and lesbian tourists prior to the North American Outgames, which were held in Calgary earlier this year. The Mayor, to our astonishment, did not defend Tourism Calgary, but went to great pains to distance himself from their actions (i.e. advertising to the gay community). In fact, he actually said that if the decision were up to him, he would not have ran the same advertisement. David Bertram, on the other hand, spoke passionately about diversity and the positive economic impact that reaching out to gay and lesbian tourists had on our city.

At the Better Calgary Campaign, we believe a vibrant city is a city the celebrates and promotes diversity. We are profoundly disappointed that Mayor Bronconnier, when faced with the opportunity to stand up and defend Tourism Calgary's admirable attempt to reach out to the gay and lesbian community, couldn't bring himself to do the right thing. We expected better.

You can read their full debate recap here.

Wednesday Round Up

Municipal: On the municipal election front, things are heating up. Imagine my surprise when my Tuesday night joindave newsletter had veiled references directed towards the Go Alnoor campaign not once, but twice. The first was a response to Dave's proposal for six new taxes that Dave now says are not a "priority" [note to Love & co: How hard is it to just say no?]. The second was Dave explaining why he is losing the sign war.

On the policy front, Alnoor has released his 24 page platform. It's quite possibly the most detailed policy platform ever released for a civic election in Calgary and I'd encourage all potential voters to read it. Hell, even if you're not a Calgarian, for policy geeks, it'll be more exciting than Maxim.


Provincial: While I wish I had time to read through the 192 pages of the AG's report (and that's just volume one), it continues to draw headlines. Daveberta gives a detailed run down of Stelmach's refusal to fire his ministers. The same ministers who gave the auditor general the run around and didn't see anything wrong with deceiving Albertans.


Federal: I've got to tell you, I'm kind of digging the fact that no matter how much the Liberals screw up, they're still in a statistical tie with Harper. And bBringing in David Smith and John Rae to help with the next campaign is a step in the right direction for the grits.

Meanwhile, the man Smith and Rae helped win time and time again is recovering from heart surgery. Here's hoping he's up and running for the book tour.


And... for those who missed it, be sure to take a look at Conrad Black's Rick Mercer Report appearance from last night.

Random Links

I've been fairly busy of late so I've got a bunch of half posts that never materialized and e-mails with links I've never got around to posting sitting around. So, here's a completely random Friday link list:

1. The Better Calgary Coalition has their website up and online. They'll be commenting on the civic election in Calgary and *gasp* actually talking about the issues. Some of the issues getting media play so far in the campaign have been taxes and transit. Although, given the weather in Calgary, the sleeper issue might very well be snow removal.

2. Speaking of the race so far, I'd like to direct all my Ward 3 readers over to George Chahal's website. George is a very strong candidate who would be a big addition to council - go check out his site to see what he's talking about.

3. A hot rumour going around is that Bronconnier has brought on Rod Love and Hal Danchilla to help with his campaign. Hmm....Setting him up to replace Stelmach perhaps?

4. Saskliberal.ca is up and running.

5. From the people who brought you Derision 2006 comes The Goose, a satirical look at the Ontario election.

6. Here's an article slamming biofuels.

(18% of) Calgary Votes

Calgary's municipal election gets off and rolling officially on Monday but things are already heating up. So, yes, my Toronto readers, go read one of the many other liblogers blood feuding over MMP, today's post is all for Calgarians.

1. Ward 1 challenger Carol Neuman has some absolutely hilarious posters on her facebook group that made me chuckle. It might be a good idea for the Alberta Liberals to do a similar "the world has changed since 1971" campaign virally next provincial election:

2. Barry Erskine has announced he won't be running again in Ward 11. Rumour is he'll be going for the PC nomination in Calgary Elbow against Craig Cheffins.

3. I did my first post on the Alnoor Kassam HQ blog on Tuesday, recapping the Monday council meeting I attended. As you can see by the information package they gave out to everyone attending it was...to put it mildly...a long meeting.

4. From the looks of things, there should be somewhat serious challenges to most of the aldermen except for the trio in the far south.

Four Quick Hits

Municipal, provincial, federal, and American political links on this Labour Day Monday.


Municipal: The Alnoor Kassam campaign will be running the first batch of radio ads this week, on traffic. They're kind of cute, so feel free to give them a listen here.


Provincial: Apparently Ed Stelmach is getting the always unpleasant Mr. Dithers label, according to the Globe. As much as I'm not a fan of Stelmach, I've actually never heard him called Mr. Dithers. I've heard "Unsteady Eddie", "Mr. Ed", "Special Ed", "Harry Strom Jr." and about 50 other insults, but never Dithers. The article also has this inspirational quote:

“Will there be people without homes? Yes. Will there be some sick people that we can't save, despite all the medical technology that we have? Yes, there will be. But people are continuing to move here because where else are they going to go in Canada?”

I think we may have a new slogan to replace wild rose province. "Alberta: Where else are you gonna go?"


Federal: The Tories continue to try and neutralize the Afghanistan issue.


US: Lots of Republicans seem to get themselves into sex scandals. And, for whatever reason, a large percentage of them seem to be gay sex scandals.