Meanwhile, South of the Border

Despite a pair of humiliating set-backs in Alabama and Mississippi last week, Mitt Romney is still on course to stumble over the finish line in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Despite an overwhelming desire to find anyone else up to the job, the Anybody But Romney options have imploded one by one - first Bachman, then Perry, then Cain, then Gingrich. When Rick Santorum is the only alternative left standing, you know you're scraping the bottom of the barrel. So it's no surprise that the delegate math is still heavily in Romney's favour, and that the election stock markets still peg him as an 89% favourite to win the nomination.

But his odds of taking the White House are far less than that, despite Obama's lackluster approval ratings. Although Romney is routinely described as the most "electable" Republican in the field, he has two glaring flaws that should ensure Obama's re-election.


Flaw 1. Romney reminds me of John Kerry v 2.0 - he flips, he flops, he lacks convictions. Voters want a leader who stands for something and, unlike the rest of the Republican field, it's unclear what Romney believes in. Just as Kerry's past made it difficult for him to attack Bush on Iraq, Romney's past makes it difficult for him to criticize Obamacare. It's going to be very difficult to attack Obama's Health Care model during debates, when Obama just needs to smile and thank Mitt for providing the Massachusetts model it was based on.

Romney's wishy washineness has allowed him to get pulled into issues that are better left dormant. The only thing making contraception a major election issue accomplishes, is energizing Democrats who were otherwise indifferent to this election after being let down by Obama.


Flaw 2. The one issue Romney may be able to ride to the White House is the economy, but Romney's business background only highlights his second fatal flaw - his inability to relate. Say what you will about them, but the one thing Barack Obama, George W Bush, and Bill Clinton were all able to do was connect with voters. So while Obama is sinking three pointers and cracking jokes this fall, expect more awkwardness from Romney, in line with his "$10,000 bet", "I'm not concerned about the very poor" and "some of my friends own NASCAR teams" Richie Rich moments.

If Obama wants to take on Wall Street and the top 1% this election, he couldn't have designed a better opponent. After all, you can't spell Romney without "money".


So while Democrats may be hoping for divine intervention to deliver them a Santorum nomination, they really should be counting their blessings that Romney will be the nominee. He may look like a formidable opponent, but Romney is the perfect foil for Obama to be up against.

Tough Crowd to Impress

With little movement in Canadian polls, let's gaze to the south, where a new poll shows us just what Republicans think of Obama:

-67% agree he's a socialist
-57% agree he's a secret Muslim (And he can't be doing a very good job of keeping it secret if half of all Republicans are on to him)
-42% believe he's a racist
-38% agree he's "doing many of the things Hitler did"
-24% agree Obama might be the Antichrist (No word on how many respondents answered "Might? He damn well IS!")
-Most offensively of all, 22% believe he "wants the terrorists to win"

It's hard to know just how solid the methodology behind this poll is. But it's certainly something to keep in mind for some of the pundits who have spent the week bemoaning how disrespectful left-wing Canadians are. Let's face it, every part of the political spectrum is littered with morons.

He's Always Got Time For Tim Hortons

Stephen Harper has received some flack for his decision to skip Barack Obama's address to the UN on climate change, in favour of a photo op at the Tim Hortons Innovation Centre.

I know, I know. Donuts over diplomacy. It doesn't look good. It makes Harper look like a leader who doesn't give a rats ass about climate change. But when you examine the issue closely, Harper's decision was clearly a difficult one. Let's compare:

Prominent Event Speaker
UN: Barack Obama
Tims: Stephen Harper
Edge: UN

Food Served at Event
UN: A selection of hors d'oeuvre prepared by the world's best international chefs
Tims: Double-double and a Boston Cream donut
Edge: Tims

A Chance to get the Votes of...
UN: Environmentalists
Tims: Tim Hortons crowd
Edge: Tims

Major Accomplishment
UN: Deployed 35 peace keeping missions
Tims: The triple chocolate donut
Edge: UN...barely

Shameful Moment
UN: Oil for food scandal and inability to prevent Rwandan genocide
Tims: Firing that single mom for giving a free timbit to a baby
Edge: Tie

Feel Good Moment
UN: Raising billions for UNICEF
Tims: When the kid realizes his dad secretly came to watch his hockey practices when he was younger
Edge: Tims. Hands down. Who didn't cry a little bit?

Charitable Cause
UN: World peace and averting a global warming catastrophe
Tims: Youth hockey
Edge: UN


So, it's 3-3 between the two events. Still, I think we all know roughly what Obama will say ("global warming is a threat...we should reduce our carbon footprint...blah blah blah...hope and change...blah blah blah"). Whereas, who on earth has any idea what actually happens at a donut innovation centre? Seriously.

Out of sheer curiosity alone, I think I'd make the same decision as Harper.

Barack Obama added "prosecuting torturers" to Interests

In case you missed it, Slate's hilarious facebook feed of Obama's first 100 days.

After a dozen Bush=Harper commercials last election...

...Stephen Harper has every reason to be excited about Barack Obama's victory.

And now, for the first time in a long time, being seen as close to the Americans may actually be a political asset, rather than a liability. If you ditch relativism out the window, Stephen Harper and Barack Obama probably line up fairly well policy-wise. So what better way to shield yourself against criticism at home on issues like the environment and foreign policy, than to be seen as lining up with the most popular politician in Canada right now?

History in the Making

I had the opportunity to head down to New Hampshire a little over a week ago for some campaigning and, I must say, it was a great experience. If you imagine every movie you’ve seen about campaigning in New Hampshire…that’ll give you an idea of what it was like. I don’t know any other way to describe it.

Walking door-to-door in rural New Hampshire, with the leaves changing colour and the weather just perfect for door knocking was certainly a nice change of pace from canvassing apartment buildings in downtown Toronto – you really got a small town USA feel. At one point we were being briefed about the canvass in a giant garage a volunteer had loaned to the campaign, when two men carrying hunting rifles walked through, on the way out to do some target practice - making phone calls to supporters with gunfire in the background was a campaign first for me…mind you, I’ve only been through one election in Toronto.

It was also easy to pick up on the famed independent mindedness New Hampshirites (New Hampshirans? New Hampshies?) are known for – I walked up a driveway with 6 broken down cars on the lawn and giant US flags flying from the roof and found a 55 year old shirtless man at the door…ready to vote Obama. So much for stereotypes, eh?

As for the campaign organization itself, everything was top notch. They’ve been at it for two years, so most of the vote had already been identified. They’d also managed to build up an impressive volunteer base, to the point where some small towns had over 150 volunteers coming by the office a day. The campaign was also effective at using the less hard-core volunteers however they could – one thing I really liked was their idea of having supporters send hand written postcards to a dozen of their neighbours explaining why they were voting for Obama.


But, above all else, what made me the most envious was their use of databases. Now, I know that most people don’t get turned on by political databases, but if you’re at all into politics, it would be hard not to be at least a little excited by this one. Every voter. Every volunteer. Their voting records from the last two elections and primaries. Every bit of demographic information you could possibly want to know about them. As a result, they could micro-target to a degree you just aren’t able to on most Canadian political campaigns.

So I had a fun weekend, learned a little about campaigning and, best of all, I now have an apartment full of Barack Obama posters, every novelty pin you could want (actual buttons: “bird watchers for Obama”, “couch potatoes for Obama”, “kayakers for Obama”), and even a bit of swag the McCain office was nice enough to give me (actual button: Sarah Palin holding a gun, with the words “Read my Lipstick: No More Liberals”). Most importantly, when I watch the results roll in, I can feel like I was a very small part of what will be a historic night in the United States.

And as for tomorrow? I’m going to say 379 electoral college votes for Obama: Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Maine, Vermont, New York, Massachussets, Conneticut, DC, Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Deleware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Misourri, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pensylvania. I’m also gonna predict 8 Senate pick-ups for the Dems (VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, OR, NC, MN) and a lead in Georgia, which they’ll lose in the run-off.

Sure, these predictions aren’t worth much, but I did beat Paul Martin in a Super Tuesday pool I won back in February. So, you know, these picks can be considered to be at least as good as what you'll get from your average former Prime Minister.

North to the Future

John McCain has picked Alaska governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate - in my opinion, a strategically brilliant selection. Her negatives shouldn't be crippling. I assume the vetting process made sure the mini-scandals that have dogged her won't get bigger. And while picking an inexperienced VP makes it harder for McCain to attack Obama for the same thing, McCain has already decided he won't be using the failed Hillary Clinton "he's inexperienced" playbook.

Her positives are obvious enough - she'll bring youth and excitement to the ticket. And, let's not kid anyone, her main purpose is obviously to attract female voters, especially disgruntled Clinton supporters. It also appears that McCain is keen on reviving the "maverick" myth, in an effort to distance himself from Bush, so picking an obscure Alaskan Governor is about as "outside Washington" as you can get.

Of course, I'll be the first to admit I don't know a lot about Palin - if she turns out to be an empty vessel, then this pick could backfire spectacularly. McCain took a risk but, up against Obama, this was probably a risk worth taking.

Speaking of Obama, I haven't had a chance to watch his convention speech yet - that's on the agenda for this evening. But the early reviews have been very positive.

Doing Politics Differently

This is a smart idea - get more people signed up and get your existing supporters fired up:

Dear Friend --

Barack Obama is about to make one of the most important decisions of this campaign -- choosing a running mate.

You have helped build this movement from the bottom up, and Barack wants you to be the first to know his choice.

Sign up today to be the first to know:

http://my.barackobama.com/vp

You will receive an email the moment Barack makes his decision, or you can text VP to 62262 to receive a text message on your mobile phone.

Once you've signed up, please forward this email to your friends, family, and coworkers to let them know about this special opportunity.

No other campaign has done this before. You can be part of this important moment.

Be the first to know who Barack selects as his running mate.

Thanks,

David

David Plouffe
Campaign
Manager
Obama for America

"The change we must change to the change we hold dear"

h/t

Mid-Week July News

I'll be launching the "Biggest Election" contest later tomorrow (some good posts on the subject can be found here and here)

Until then, a mish-mash of news stories:

1. Kady O'Malley calls BS on Jennifer Wright's claim that Green Shift has received "numerous angry and threatening calls and emails" from people mistakenly thinking they were affiliated with the Liberal Party. I must say it seems odd a normal person would be enraged about a plan not mentioned on Green Shift's website to the point where they would call the contact number on the site to complain.

If this is happening, I feel kind of sorry for GRIT Calgary who must get hundreds of angry calls a year from irate conservatives upset about something they wrote on their damn blog.


2. Kady's most excellent blog recaps today's goings-on at the Ethics Committee In and Out hearings.


3. There's new news about the alleged grewalling of the Cadman tape but, at this point, I don't really care. The fact is, Harper said what he said - he hasn't denied that. So everything else, while perhaps relevant to the lawsuit (and I don't even see how it is), doesn't change that in the least. He said he was aware of "financial considerations" regardless of what may have happened to the tape- that's all that's really relevant here.


4. As someone who enjoys numbers and politics, I can't begin to describe just how much this site rocks! Simulations! Projections! And heaps and heaps of polling data! For what it's worth, their current model has Obama pegged at a 68.8% chance of victory.

It's not over until the lady in the pantsuit says it is

Tonight will be “clinching night” for Obama, effectively ending the most exciting nomination race in US history. Whether or not Hillary acknowledges that remains to be seen. I’ll have updates here throughout the evening as the results roll in and the speeches are made.

One expects talk will now turn towards finding a vice-presidential nominee for Obama (and McCain of course). While conventional wisdom would tell him to stay the hell away from her, there is an argument to be made for Obama choosing Hillary, simply to ensure the party stays united.

One imagines there will also be a lot of buzz around high profile names like Edwards, Richardson, and Clark. But it might very well be a sleeper like Evan Bayh, Brian Schweitzer, or Kathleen Sebelius who gets the prize. Or any of the other hundred or so names I’ve failled to mention.

Select Smart has a fun quiz where you fill out the VP’s bio and they suggest the names – I put myself into Obama’s shoes, and they recommended Jim Webb based on my criteria.

UPDATE: 10 to go...

UPDATE: ...9...8...7...

UPDATE: ...6...5...4...

"YES HE DID" UPDATE: CNN projects it. Hillary says no decision tonight.

Obama: "I will be the democratic party nominee"

A great final 2 minutes to Obama's speech. So let's get the party started - Obama v McCain...should be one heck of a race.

VEEPDATE: CNN and the online markets weigh in on VP speculation.

The Delightful Dismemberment of the Democratic Hopescape

The Democrats have reached a compromise, giving Florida and Michigan half votes and splitting the Michigan delegation 69-59 in favour of Clinton. Immediately, some Clinton supporters and organizers have begun to raise the spectre of a challenge to this ruling at the convention - presumably to get an extra 4 half votes out of Michigan, which would cut Obama's lead from 174 to 172. With the primary calender wrapping up this week and most super delegates likely to make their choice public soon afterwards, I suspect this is more for show from the Clinton campaign and we'll soon see some sort of recognition on her part that Obama will be the nominee.

Or maybe not.

Regardless, here's a great SNL video:

Meanwhile, in the USA

Sad news, as Ted Kennedy is revealed to have a malignant brain tumour.


Meanwhile, the neverending story visits Kentucky and Oregon tonight and (spoiler alert) Obama will clinch a pledged delegate majority, but Hillary will win Kentucky and fight on.

Cherniak makes a good case for Hillary staying in the race until the end and I do think Obama's win at a contested DNC would generate a certain amount of excitement and create some momentum. However, the logistics of running a Presidential campaign are such that the Democrats simply can't afford to wait until late August to crown a nominee.

Puerto Rico holds the final primary on June 7th. I think a fair solution would be for the super delegates to make their choices public soon thereafter, so that Obama's win can finally become "official" and he can focus on setting up a national campaign and attacking John McCain. The DNC will, I'm sure, give Hillary a prominent role at the convention and find some way to recognize the strength of her campaign, but to delay the inevitable by nearly three months for...well, I can't think of any good reason...just wouldn't be fair to Obama, to Clinton, or to the Democratic Party.

UPDATE: Clinton takes Kentucky by an impressive 65%-30% margin.

...and Obama's looking good in Oregon - 63% to 37%, with 11% of the polls reporting.

The Eyes of the Nation Turn to Guam

With a neck and neck race for the democratic nomination, the usually insignificant Guam primary is now...slightly less insignificant. Barack Obama has become the first Democrat to ever set up a campaign office in Guam (Republican Rudy Gulliani, of course, set one up in January as part of his "Florida and Guam" strategy), while Bill Clinton has been talking up the importance of Guam. It's nice to see that no region is too small to pander to!

It's difficult to say who has the edge in this primary, given that so little is known about Guamanian politics. Having dodged gunfire during the Battle of Guam in WW2, I'd expect Hillary to have the edge, but who knows?

Here are the early results from CNN, with 7 of 19 villages reporting (yes, villages):

Obama 55.3%
Clinton 44.7%


UPDATE: It's Obama by 7 votes! 50.1% to 49.9%.

For those who thought "yes we can" lacked substance...

I had some fun with the US Presidential race earlier this week. But on a serious note, everyone should take the time to listen to or read this speech by Barack Obama, broken down by Joe Klein here.

I started the youtube video on Tuesday night and ended up watching all forty minutes of it. What's remarkable about this speech isn't so much the delivery or even the impact it will have on the US Presidential race. What's remarkable is that it was an oh so rare moment when a politician took a minefield of an issue and, rather than run the standard damage control, plunged completely into it. For those who believe politics has become all about sound bytes, spin, and the avoidance of controversy at all cost, this will warm your heart. It was a brutally honest and direct speech that attacked a sensitive topic with the complexity it deserved.

Complexity is something that has completely disappeared from politics. Maybe because there are very few politicians who can actually deliver direct and candid analysis that can captivate an audience. And those who have tried have usually been laughed out of town.

Whether this helps him win the nomination, the presidency, or makes him a better president remains to be seen. But, for now, it's simply worth just watching and enjoying it for what it is. And the fact that 1.6 million people have watched this video on youtube already shows that this isn't a typical speech (or a typical candidacy for that mater).

The Audacity of Hope

I’ve been meaning to post something on this for some time now but got tied up in the Alberta election and the 20,000 ALLEGED “gates” that have hit the Harper government. I’ve been drifting towards one of the horses in the US Presidential race for a while and I made it “official” a few weeks ago by adding the supporter button on my facebook page. I don’t want to call it an endorsement because:

a) I reserve the right to flip flop faster than John Kerry on this one
b) I’m not voting in the race and not an American
c) I’m neither an expert who has followed this closely nor a vacuous celebrity
d) I’ll leave it to Ian Brodie to try and influence this race

All this is, is me saying who I’d vote for if I lived in the States (or Guam!).

I was a big Gore supporter from the start and, once he decided not to run, I’ve been bouncing around from candidate to candidate – from Edwards to Clinton to Richardson to Obama to Clinton to Obama to Clin...there may have even been a few hours when I was eagerly anticipating the Vilsackian era, although I was probably drunk at the time.

I’ve tried looking at the policies but, after eight years of George Bush, the Democrats are all looking pretty good and, par consequence, pretty similar. I think Hillary’s plan for universal health care would be a huge leap forward in the right direction. Richardson had the best resume. I admired John Edwards trying to make poverty an issue. And I think Obama is the best suited to end the war in Iraq.

But, at the end of the day, I’ll be honest – I’ve pretty much chucked policy to the wind. I’m not sure I particularly care which President would be best for Canada or even who would make the best President. So long as they don’t pronounce it nu-cu-lar, or go Alan Alda (Canadian Bacon Alan Alda that is – I’m down with West Wing Alan Alda as the President) on our ass, I’m cool.

Really, it came down to one thing. Looking at the world wide political stage – especially the Canadian political stage – there are so few politicians who can actually inspire. I mean, seriously, look at what we have right now coast-to-coast – it’s depressing. Even people who I like, from Dion to McGuinty, just aren’t capable of that. Back in Alberta, only 4 in 10 eligible voters bothered to cast their ballots because they were so disenchanted with their options. So the fact that Barack Obama has been able to inspire millions of people and engage them in the political process just says a lot about the man. Maybe he won’t change politics, but the mere fact that he could, to me, means it’s worth taking that chance.

When life immitates The West Wing immitating life

Aha! I knew it!

what those West Wing fans stunned by the similarity between the fictitious Matthew Santos and the real-life Barack Obama have not known is that the resemblance is no coincidence. When the West Wing scriptwriters first devised their fictitious presidential candidate in the late summer of 2004, they modelled him in part on a young Illinois politician - not yet even a US senator - by the name of Barack Obama.

"I drew inspiration from him in drawing this character," West Wing writer and producer Eli Attie told the Guardian. "When I had to write, Obama was just appearing on the national scene. He had done a great speech at the convention [which nominated John Kerry] and people were beginning to talk about him."

Hat tip - IP

Super Tuesday...Wednesday Edition

Was out at a Super Tuesday party last night and I forgot to toss up an open thread beforehand so here's your chance to weigh in on the results. With California still counting, it's hard to get a firm delegate count, but all indications seem to point to Hillary winning the night slightly and being up by about 100 delegates overall, based on the strength of her "super delegate" (who comes up with these names?). Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington are up this weekend, followed by the Washington DC area on Tuesday...without looking at the polls, that would seem to be fertile Obama ground so this thing could be all knotted up a week from now. Or not. Who the hell knows?

On the Republican side, John McCain (whose french fries I adore) is sitting pretty. McCain was certainly their most electable candidate so it's not a huge surprise he's risen to the top. However, a bizarre "Republicans for Hillary" movement seems to have emerged - Ann Coulter (who shouldn't really be taken seriously) was talking about campaigning for Hillary against McCain last week. This morning on Newsworld, I caught Michael Reagan (Ronald's conservative son...not the Liberal one) calling her "Reaganesque" as he trashes McCain. You've got to think this means Huckabee will make the ticket as the VP but even then, McCain is going to have a tough time getting the staunch Conservatives out to vote, even if he soaks up a fair number of independents.


Updates and Other Links

• The Macleans gang have a lot to say.
• Expect a lot of analysis at Daily Kos throughout the day.

Super Tuesday Super Predictions

Just like blogger predictions were far more accurate than anything you saw in the mainstream media during the Liberal leadership race, this analysis of Super Tuesday states is ten times more in depth than anything you'll find in any newspaper or on CNN.

If you have some time to kill, it's worth a read. If you just want the bottom line, Hillary is projected to win the Super Tuesday delegate count by the slimmest of margins - 845 to 833.

Monday News

1. Ed Stelmach is going to skip out on the climate change talks tomorrow at the first Minister's meeting. This follows in the grand tradition of Ralph Klein playing hooky from first Minister's health care talks to go to a casino in Hull. And this guy is trying to run on change?

2. Macleans profiles the twelve biggest power players in Stephen Harper's inner circle. And, no, his stylist did not make the cut.

3. No surprise here. Harper backs Manley's recommendations and implies he might get the extra 1,000 troops lined up sooner, rather than later. If he does, it will be interesting to see if he schedules the Afghanistan vote before or after the budget vote.

4. For those who haven't caught in, here are the top ten Barack Obama campaign promises, as presented on Letterman last week. Speaking of which, Obama adds another Kennedy to his endorsement list.

5. The Rhinos are back in Alberta. Among their promises: "Annex Saskatchewan to create more room for affordable housing" and "Merge with the Tories to stop splitting the 'silly vote'".