Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Super Tuesday...Wednesday Edition

Was out at a Super Tuesday party last night and I forgot to toss up an open thread beforehand so here's your chance to weigh in on the results. With California still counting, it's hard to get a firm delegate count, but all indications seem to point to Hillary winning the night slightly and being up by about 100 delegates overall, based on the strength of her "super delegate" (who comes up with these names?). Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington are up this weekend, followed by the Washington DC area on Tuesday...without looking at the polls, that would seem to be fertile Obama ground so this thing could be all knotted up a week from now. Or not. Who the hell knows?

On the Republican side, John McCain (whose french fries I adore) is sitting pretty. McCain was certainly their most electable candidate so it's not a huge surprise he's risen to the top. However, a bizarre "Republicans for Hillary" movement seems to have emerged - Ann Coulter (who shouldn't really be taken seriously) was talking about campaigning for Hillary against McCain last week. This morning on Newsworld, I caught Michael Reagan (Ronald's conservative son...not the Liberal one) calling her "Reaganesque" as he trashes McCain. You've got to think this means Huckabee will make the ticket as the VP but even then, McCain is going to have a tough time getting the staunch Conservatives out to vote, even if he soaks up a fair number of independents.


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10 Comments:

  • I'm not so sure about Hillary winning the delegate count. The numbers I have seen show that Obama will probably be in the lead in terms of "pledged delegates". Hillary only would be ahead of the "super delegates" are counted. Given that they can and many will change their votes if Obama starts gaining ground, I'm not sure how much of a true picture it gives of what is happening on the ground to include them.

    By Blogger Prairie Fire, at 11:32 AM  

  • Tough for Clinton.

    Her wins in California and NY keep her alive. But, she's short of money.

    And, over 2,000 delegates still to go.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:09 PM  

  • Super is obviously American for ex-officio. So next time you want to super size your fires, say, "I'll ex-officio my Freedom McCain's with that please."

    Um Clinton is winning, she has been the whole time in case no one noticed. That means something. When people are in doubt they go back to the familiar or their original choice. Excepting black anger in a few states, this has been the case at the polls, no matter what the MSM says about an Obama surge or tidal wave or whatever they are calling it.

    Money not a problem. She raised 14million more than him last year, He can't sustain the kind of fundraising he did in Jan and she can loan herself 5 milliion each month for another three months.

    The States obama won weren't great. They were never vote Democrat dyed red states, so they a) come with very few super delegates, b) convince even fewer other super delegates, and c) dont deliver votes in a general election. South Carolina is also a red state.

    They were also for the most part caucuses. There are very few caucuses left. A few this month and very few after that. None the last month.

    Also, he can't tie her and go to convention. He has to beat her by at least 100 delegates because Florida and Michigan have stated they are sending their delegates, even if they stand in the hall.

    There is no way super delegates will hand Obama the nomination, when Florida and Michigan are standing in the hallway disenfranchised, against the wishes of Latinos, and every democratic state. No way.
    A tie needs a tie breaker and Florida and Michigan qualify.


    Also Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island on March 4th heavily favour Clinton. Never say never but when you're up by 35% in the polls you can go down to 25% ahead but you seldom lose. It will be over March 4th.

    She is also at 13% up from gallup today, Feb 3-5. Not that that cant change, but its another reason why its advantage Clinton.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:10 PM  

  • The Republicans look weak. The Democractic primaries had twice the turnout of the Republicans. And, both Clinton and Obama had more voters (5 million each)than McCain (3 million).

    By Blogger JimTan, at 6:13 PM  

  • I agree with Jimtan. But one thing that is clear is that Clinton has peaked and despite that her and Obama are neck and neck. He will win the next three states which are heavily weighted with african-american voters. Bill Clinton said that Jesse Jackson won South Carolina so winning it was no big deal. That was outrageous when he said it, now it just seems pathetic. The Clintons will have to pull all stops in their bag of dirty tricks to stop Obama and frankly I do not think it will matter.

    It will be McCain vs. Obama and the black dude, as Bill Clinton refers to him will win it going away.

    By Anonymous the athenian, at 8:23 PM  

  • Excepting black anger in a few states, this has been the case at the polls, no matter what the MSM says about an Obama surge or tidal wave or whatever they are calling it.

    Okay you ignorant troll, I've had enough of reading your crap on every liberal blog I visit.

    From the MacLean's article linked in this post:
    Here are some of the states Obama won tonight: Minnesota (4% black), Alaska (3%), North Dakota (1%), Colorado (4%), Utah (1%), and, with fully 80% of the vote... Idaho. According to my research, there are no black people in Idaho.

    If "black anger," as you so eloquently put it, is what fuels Obama, then there must of been a few people voting hundreds of thousands of times on Tuesday night to yield these results. Grow up please, anon.

    By Anonymous daniel, at 10:37 PM  

  • The States obama won weren't great. They were never vote Democrat dyed red states, so they a) come with very few super delegates, b) convince even fewer other super delegates, and c) dont deliver votes in a general election.

    Except for Illinois, Minnesota, Delaware, and Connecticut, plus the swing states of Iowa, Colorado, and Missouri.

    By Anonymous The Invisible Hand, at 4:01 AM  

  • CHARLES BABINGTON, Associated Press Writer

    NEW ORLEANS - Democrat Barack Obama raised $7.2 million in less than 48 hours post Super Tuesday and rival Hillary Rodham Clinton collected $4 million, giving him a financial edge that's caused consternation within a Clinton campaign clamoring for attention-getting debates.

    The remarkable outpouring of contributions recorded since Tuesday's contests in 22 states comes on the heels of an eye-poppping $32 million raised by Obama in January and the record-shattering $100 million each Obama and Clinton raised in 2007 in their neck-and-neck race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

    Obama has been riding a wave of fundraising from large donors and small Internet contributors. While not matching Obama's pace, Clinton also saw an online surge of donations from 35,000 new contributors since midnight Tuesday, Clinton campaign aides said.


    Clinton acknowledged Wednesday that she loaned her campaign $5 million late last month as Obama was outraising and outspending her heading into Feb. 5 Super Tuesday contests. Some senior staffers on her campaign also are voluntarily forgoing paychecks as the campaign heads into the next round of contests.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:29 PM  

  • "You've got to think this means Huckabee will make the ticket as the VP but even then, McCain is going to have a tough time getting the staunch Conservatives out to vote, even if he soaks up a fair number of independents."

    No, Huckabee is only one of many people who would be on the VP list for McCain. He has a shot but to say he is going to make the list already is too soon.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:37 PM  

  • “No, Huckabee is only one of many people who would be on the VP list for McCain. He has a shot but to say he is going to make the list already is too soon.”

    It’s already too late.

    With Romney gone, it’s a fight between McCain and the fundamentalists. I don’t think that Huckabee will wind up as the VP nominee.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 7:35 PM  

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