All's Quiet on the Northern Front...
...so let's look south to the land of corn, cold winters, and disproportionate political power!
Yes, today and Tuesday two states making up a cumulative 4% of the US population (less than Newfoundland vis-a-vis Canada; fun quiz - how did Stephane Dion do in Newfoundland during Liberal leadership race? Anyone? Anyone?) will, by and large, decide the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees. Or, at least they would in a normal year - the races are so tight this time around that the early primaries may only complicate things further...especially if the polls are to be believed and the front runners under perform.
For the Dems, Hillary is now third in Iowa, with a reduced lead in New Hampshire and nationally. For the Republicans it's Huckabee vs. Romney in Iowa and McCain vs. Romney in New Hampshire, for the right to be the "not Giuliani" candidate of this campaign.
UPDATE: A convincing win for Huckabee, which puts the pressure on Romney to win New Hampshire. Of note, Ron Paul picked up 10%, good enough for 5th, ahead of Rudy Giuliani.
For the Dems, it's Obama with 37% and Edwards and Clinton with 30% each.
Yes, today and Tuesday two states making up a cumulative 4% of the US population (less than Newfoundland vis-a-vis Canada; fun quiz - how did Stephane Dion do in Newfoundland during Liberal leadership race? Anyone? Anyone?) will, by and large, decide the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees. Or, at least they would in a normal year - the races are so tight this time around that the early primaries may only complicate things further...especially if the polls are to be believed and the front runners under perform.
For the Dems, Hillary is now third in Iowa, with a reduced lead in New Hampshire and nationally. For the Republicans it's Huckabee vs. Romney in Iowa and McCain vs. Romney in New Hampshire, for the right to be the "not Giuliani" candidate of this campaign.
UPDATE: A convincing win for Huckabee, which puts the pressure on Romney to win New Hampshire. Of note, Ron Paul picked up 10%, good enough for 5th, ahead of Rudy Giuliani.
For the Dems, it's Obama with 37% and Edwards and Clinton with 30% each.
Labels: US Politics
posted by calgarygrit at
7:43 PM
8 Comments:
There have been several Latin and South American countries that have had women leaders. If Hilary Clinton wins leadership of the Democrats, that means the Republican and Liberal parties will be the only major North American parties that have not had a female leader.
If Clinton does win, does anyone think that will give a big boost to Martha Hall Findley in the next Liberal leadership race? Or is the Liberal party still too much of an old boys club?
By
nuna d. above, at 7:04 PM
Wow Calgary. Hillary is third in one pole. Another poll done last night shows her with a 9% lead. Dont drink the kool aid.
By
Anonymous, at 7:34 PM
Oh yeah the latest poll in NH gives her a 16% lead. The average of the last five national polls has her with a 21.2& lead. Just so you know.
By
Anonymous, at 7:36 PM
"Republican and Liberal parties will be the only major North American parties that have not had a female leader."
Might I draw nuna d. above's attention to the country of 109 million people just underneath the U.S. on most maps? Yeah, the one where fajitas come from. Three major parties, none of which--to my knowledge, anyway--have ever had a female presidential candidate.
The truth is everyone's pretty brutal on this count. Only by counting chickens that haven't hatched (and, judging by a third-place finish in Iowa, are suddenly less of a given) in the U.S. and bumping Kim Campbell's brief sojourn atop the PCs as counting for the ReformaTory party in Canada can you really create that discrepancy.
By
Tom, at 10:04 PM
It matters not at all. They: the dems, libs, cons and reps, all think the same way and are going in the same direction. Unhappily for Mr. and Mrs. Lunchbucket, they're going there too.
By
Anonymous, at 12:22 AM
anon; You were saying?
And, yes - I do think Hillary is still the odds on favourite since she should win NH (and most of the super Tuesday states). Nice to see Obama making a race of it though.
By
calgarygrit, at 9:11 AM
The Iowa caucus is small and was only the first of fifty. Yet, Iowa has confirmed what’s been said about voter trends.
Obama is the clear leader among the Democrats. He is the favourite of the young, middle-aged, new voters and independents. He has also taken the lead from Clinton among the female gender. His message is change, after a period which includes scandals, 9-11, Iraq, Afghanistan, housing problems, and a general contempt for congress.
On the other hand, there is still no clear leader among the Republicans. That is the problem for the GOP. Romney has been unable to draw the religious conservatives. Now, Huckabee needs to move closer to the GOP center. Will he?
Obama will stroll into the White House if the GOP cannot unite. Expect a lot more attacks on Obama’s policies as the campaign proceeds.
By
JimTan, at 1:57 PM
Hey Dan:
I'm in love with Barack Obama and have been for a very long time. He's my personal choice, but also, I really believe in his potential to take the White House. Regardless of how I feel about him, I'd bet on him.
On the GOP side I favour Ron Paul. I know he's a long shot but I like him a lot and I hope he can continue to show strongly.
I'd love to see the two of them as running mates, but -- that's obviously very unlikely to happen. Stranger things have happened, tohugh.
By
Jason Bo Green, at 12:29 PM
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