It's not over until the lady in the pantsuit says it is
Tonight will be “clinching night” for Obama, effectively ending the most exciting nomination race in US history. Whether or not Hillary acknowledges that remainstobeseen. I’ll have updates here throughout the evening as the results roll in and the speeches are made.
One expects talk will now turn towards finding a vice-presidential nominee for Obama (and McCain of course). While conventional wisdom would tell him to stay the hell away from her, there is an argument to be made for Obama choosing Hillary, simply to ensure the party stays united.
One imagines there will also be a lot of buzz around high profile names like Edwards, Richardson, and Clark. But it might very well be a sleeper like Evan Bayh, Brian Schweitzer, or Kathleen Sebelius who gets the prize. Or any of the other hundred or so names I’vefailled to mention.
Select Smart has a fun quiz where you fill out the VP’s bio and they suggest the names – I put myself into Obama’s shoes, and they recommended Jim Webb based on my criteria.
The Delightful Dismemberment of the Democratic Hopescape
The Democrats have reached a compromise, giving Florida and Michigan half votes and splitting the Michigan delegation 69-59 in favour of Clinton. Immediately, some Clinton supporters and organizers have begun to raise the spectre of a challenge to this ruling at the convention - presumably to get an extra 4 half votes out of Michigan, which would cut Obama's lead from 174 to 172. With the primary calender wrapping up this week and most super delegates likely to make their choice public soon afterwards, I suspect this is more for show from the Clinton campaign and we'll soon see some sort of recognition on her part that Obama will be the nominee.
Meanwhile, the neverending story visits Kentucky and Oregon tonight and (spoiler alert) Obama will clinch a pledged delegate majority, but Hillary will win Kentucky and fight on.
Cherniak makes a good case for Hillary staying in the race until the end and I do think Obama's win at a contested DNC would generate a certain amount of excitement and create some momentum. However, the logistics of running a Presidential campaign are such that the Democrats simply can't afford to wait until late August to crown a nominee.
Puerto Rico holds the final primary on June 7th. I think a fair solution would be for the super delegates to make their choices public soon thereafter, so that Obama's win can finally become "official" and he can focus on setting up a national campaign and attacking John McCain. The DNC will, I'm sure, give Hillary a prominent role at the convention and find some way to recognize the strength of her campaign, but to delay the inevitable by nearly three months for...well, I can't think of any good reason...just wouldn't be fair to Obama, to Clinton, or to the Democratic Party.
UPDATE: Clinton takes Kentucky by an impressive 65%-30% margin.
...and Obama's looking good in Oregon - 63% to 37%, with 11% of the polls reporting.
With a neck and neck race for the democratic nomination, the usually insignificant Guam primary is now...slightly less insignificant. BarackObama has become the first Democrat to ever set up a campaign office in Guam (Republican Rudy Gulliani, of course, set one up in January as part of his "Florida and Guam" strategy), while Bill Clinton has been talking up the importance of Guam. It's nice to see that no region is too small to pander to!
It's difficult to say who has the edge in this primary, given that so little is known about Guamanian politics. Having dodged gunfire during the Battle of Guam in WW2, I'd expect Hillary to have the edge, but who knows?
Here are the early results from CNN, with 7 of 19 villages reporting (yes, villages):
Was out at a Super Tuesday party last night and I forgot to toss up an open thread beforehand so here's your chance to weigh in on the results. With California still counting, it's hard to get a firm delegate count, but all indications seem to point to Hillary winning the night slightly and being up by about 100 delegates overall, based on the strength of her "super delegate" (who comes up with these names?). Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington are up this weekend, followed by the Washington DC area on Tuesday...without looking at the polls, that would seem to be fertile Obama ground so this thing could be all knotted up a week from now. Or not. Who the hell knows?
On the Republican side, John McCain (whose french fries I adore) is sitting pretty. McCain was certainly their most electable candidate so it's not a huge surprise he's risen to the top. However, a bizarre "Republicans for Hillary" movement seems to have emerged - Ann Coulter (who shouldn't really be taken seriously) was talking about campaigning for Hillary against McCain last week. This morning on Newsworld, I caught Michael Reagan (Ronald's conservative son...not the Liberal one) calling her "Reaganesque" as he trashes McCain. You've got to think this means Huckabee will make the ticket as the VP but even then, McCain is going to have a tough time getting the staunch Conservatives out to vote, even if he soaks up a fair number of independents.
Just like blogger predictions were far more accurate than anything you saw in the mainstream media during the Liberal leadership race, this analysis of Super Tuesday states is ten times more in depth than anything you'll find in any newspaper or on CNN.
If you have some time to kill, it's worth a read. If you just want the bottom line, Hillary is projected to win the Super Tuesday delegate count by the slimmest of margins - 845 to 833.
It's election night in New Hampshire as the tiny state of one million people helps select the next President. I'll be flipping back and forth between the results and the hockey game so expect updates here throughout the evening. Given that I'm neither a New Hamshirite nor an American, I'm aware that my opinion doesn't really matter but here's my thoughts on the candidates who could still win the Presidency:
Democrats
I would have been on the Gore bandwagon had he decided to toss his hat in but, understandably, he's happy winning everything except the Presidency (although some could argue he has already won that too...). As it is, I keep bouncing back and forth between the three front runners.
I really like what Barack Obama represents...I jut don't really understand why he represents what he represents. I have yet to see any coherent argument as to why he represents "change" more than Edwards or Clinton but, hey, it's a fun ride to watch and he'd make a hell of a candidate. But Hillary's getting attacked by Lou Dobbs right now so that probably means she's doing something right, and Edwards has as much charisma and better policy than either of the other two so I'd be fine with any of them.
Republicans
This race is the fun one. I'm joining Jesus and Chuck Norris in endorsing Mike Huckabee. Not only is a regular on the Colbert Report but, as pointed out recently by a few libloggers, he's made a 22 Minutes cameo:
If you thought Stockwell Day was a fun candidate to follow, just imagine Stockwell Day with a sense of humour!
From Colbert's buddy, we move to Jon Stewart's. John McCain is expected to win tonight and has staged quite the comeback after being left for dead this fall. McCain is probably the most electable man in the field, although the generation gap is going to be the size of the Grand Canyon if it's him against Obama. He gets full marks for the best line of the New Hampshire debates when he agreed wholeheartedly that Mitt Romney is the candidate of change.
Fred Thompson, to the best of my knowledge, is still in this race, but it's possible he's dropped out and I just missed it.
Rudy Giuliani is just hoping no one forgets about him by the time Super Tuesday rolls around. I don't mind Rudy - he cameo'd on Seinfeld once - but I have a hard time endorsing someone if his win means having to look up the spelling of his name every time I post about him during his Presidency.
LIVE UPDATES:
8:00 pm: The polls close and CNN makes the ever-so-bold prediction that...John Edwards will be third! I guess they're going to hold off on that bold "Richardson finishes fourth" call until some more data comes in.
8:05 pm: CNN is profiling Salem now. Full credit to Wolf Blitzer for resisting the obvious Hillary Clinton joke.
8:16 pm: CNN projects that McCain wins New Hampshire. I guess it's time for Romney to get those push polls into the field in South Carolina...
8:32 pm: Clinton 40%, Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 4%. You know, I'm shocked that Jed Bartlett's endorsement in his home state couldn't move votes for Richardson.
10:24 pm: Edwards is conceding now and he's using the SNL Gore "health care" speech...or at least a very close approximation to it. Clinton's up by over 4,000 votes with 63% of the polls in, so it certainly appears that she'll eek this one out. Not a great result if you think about it but, given the polls over the last two days, it likely leaves the Democratic nomination as a pick 'em.
I think the take home message from tonight is that Super Tuesday is going to be very interesting for both parties. And, while it's still early, does anyone else get the sense that the Republican nomination might actually come down to a delegated convention?
