Liberal Leadership Race

The Race Victory March for Stornoway Sussex Stornoway

Dion Steps Down

Frank McKenna: Will he or won’t he? (Spoiler alert: He won’t)

Possible Candidates

Chose Vancouver

8 Simple Rules of Liberal Leadership Races

Manley Out

Kennedy Out

Liberal leadership debate recap

In Support of Dominic LeBlanc

Bob Rae Blogger Chat

Ignatieff Crowned

The Race for Stornoway...err, 24 Sussex...err...Stornoway...

Now that we've taken a break from that horrifying experiment in parliamentary democracy, we can shift our attention back to another horrifying experiment in democracy - the Liberal Leadership Race.

Some are now suggesting that this race should be sped up and I think that would be a mistake - we're picking the man to lead us for the next decade, there's no need to rush into a decision. If anything, the moral of the last week is that political decisions with long-term implications need to be thought through carefully.

With that said, I have two quick bullet points for tonight:

1. Bob Rae appears to have found his wedge issue. While Ignatieff carefully dances around the issue, Rae has embraced the idea of the coalition. It's certainly a calculated risk by the veteran politician, as many expect the coalition to implode over the holidays. But Rae needs a game changer and this could be it, one way or the other.

2. For those of you who might want to learn a bit more about Dominic LeBlanc, Macleans has an excellent profile of him in this week's newsstand edition of the magazine - and online. The article talks a lot about Dominic's Liberal roots - growing up with the Trudeau kids and driving Chretien around. Although that's all interesting, what I take from it is what should be the 10 word theme of his campaign - "Dominic can connect with voters...especially those outside of Toronto". LeBlanc would be a leader average Canadians could relate to, and he would be a Liberal leader who could grow the party outside of it's home turf. If he sticks to that 10 word theme, he should surprise a few people this campaign.

In Support of Dominic LeBlanc

Although I obviously have a soft spot for some of the candidates who didn’t run, I was always expecting this to be a three-man race and so I’ve spent the past month giving all the candidates a close look. I genuinely went into this one open-minded - it’s a very intriguing race because each of the three potential leaders is so unique, with vastly different strengths and vastly different flaws. I’ll be proud to support whichever one of the three wins this thing because they each bring so much to the table.

On one side you have the always-brilliant Michael Ignatieff who has matured as a politician so much over the past three years. I can certainly visualize him being a great Prime Minister.

On the other side you have arguably the most gifted politician in Canada today, Bob Rae. He’s experienced, he’s polished, and his Liberal credentials - doubted by some in 2006 - can no longer be questioned.

But I’ve decided to go another route. I won’t lie - Ignatieff’s position on issues I hold dear and the reaction I've seen to the words "Bob Rae" from average Ontarians played a role in my decision. But I’ve always said the problems faced by the Liberal Party run deeper than leadership so I would have had no problem sitting this race out and directing my energies elsewhere if no one caught my eye. Luckily, Dominic LeBlanc did just that.

As a 40-year-old child of the Liberal Party, Dominic understands the party and will direct his limitless energy to ensuring it’s long term health and prosperity. I know he’ll run to win the next election, as he should, but I have to respect anyone willing to admit it will take a decade to restore the party’s health. It was clear to those at the LPCO debate yesterday and to those watching it on TV, that LeBlanc understands rural Canada better than anyone else in this party and that he’s our best vehicle for making the party competitive in places where we haven’t been competitive for a long time. In addition, a lot of the party renewal suggestions he offered up were just what I’ve been waiting to hear – especially the idea of hiring young field workers to build up the party in regions of the country where we’re not currently successful.

While he’s certainly the best long-term option, I think Dominic brings skills to the table that will ensure short-term success as well. He’s fluently bilingual and an excellent communicator. Again, watching him yesterday, the man was engaging, funny, pointed, and knowledgeable - he will inject some badly needed energy and life into Canadian politics. Politics is about connecting with voters and I strongly believe LeBlanc is a leader voters will be able to relate to.

In addition to this, he also brings close to a decade of federal experience to the table, and is going to be a challenging opponent for the Tories to smear in the ten million dollar ad buy we all know is coming to a TV screen near you this May.

In short, LeBlanc is a politician of great potential, the only knocks being a lack of name recognition and a really bad haircut. But with the Liberal Party entering its third leadership race in five years, I want a leader who can guide us for a decade. With the Liberal Party desperately in need of renewal, I want a leader who understands the problems we face and is committed to finding long-term solutions - not just a quick fix.

So while my leadership endorsement may very well be the kiss of death, I offer it to Mr. LeBlanc. For any undecided Liberals out there, I would ask you to at least give the man a fair look because I suspect Dominic may surprise you.

And They're Off...Again

Today’s Michael Ignatieff campaign launch – not to be confused with his initial launch…or his more formal future launch, went off fairly smoothly. The only real newsworthy tid-bit from it was MI's promise to hold a "thinker's conference" within a hundred days of winning the leadership. You can read about it here, or check out his very impressive campaign website here.

The media, no doubt having learned their lesson from 2006 when they declared the race a battle of the roommates, appear to have declared it…a battle of the roommates! But they’re not happy about being forced to declare it a two man race, as the Globe explains in today’s editorial:

Whatever his merits as a potential leader, Mr. Kennedy is one of his party's stronger advocates of a “308” strategy in which the Liberals would aim to compete in every riding – a variation of the “50-state” model successfully adopted by the U.S. Democrats. While many Liberals scoff at the notion of competing in much of rural Canada, let alone Alberta, other candidates would do well to consider this strategy now that Mr. Kennedy is out of the running – and not just because of its fundraising advantages.

Abandoning whole sections of the country where support does not come easily to them will eventually lead even the Liberals' core supporters to question what sort of a party they are voting for.

So what about the third contender? Well, Dominic LeBlanc lays out his reasons for running in La Presse and Macleans:

For the second time in less than three years, the Liberal Party is about to select a new leader on the heels of an electoral defeat. At this very early stage in that process of change, there are two facts that Liberals must confront.

First, the Liberal Party is in very real danger of suffering further erosion in the connection it has so long enjoyed with so many Canadians. We must act urgently to re-energize our party, our perspective and renew the credibility of our claim to lead this country in time to win the next election.

Second, that challenge can best be met with a generational change in our leadership. With the kind of revitalization that comes about when a party springs itself forward with a younger, more energized leader.

8 Simple Rules for Liberal Leadership Races

And we're off! The rules have been set - Feb 6 membership cut-off, March 6-10 super weekend, and an April 30 to May 3 convention.

As we all know, those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. So here are a few lessons I think we can all learn from the last Liberal leadership race:

1. The polls are fairly meaningless, with the possible exception of the ones taken of actual delegates to gauge second choice interest; Liberal organizers and bloggers probably have a better sense of the relative strength of the candidates' than the pundits do. Things like number of donors, ex-officio endorsements, and caucus support aren't bad indicator either.

2. The policy proposals put forward by the candidates probably aren't super relevant - Ignatieff favoured a carbon tax last time and Dion opposed it.

3. Things said during leadership debates might come back to haunt you at a later date.

4. Leaked Tory memos about the leadership race should be ignored completely.

5. Directly comparing your candidate to Pierre Trudeau is a good way to make yourself look silly...subtly doing it might not be an awful idea though. I suspect the "Barack Obama corollary" to this rule will apply this time.

6. Solemn pledges to not go negative have a similar shelf life to yogurt.

7. Playing up expectations about how much support you expect to get is not a good idea. That said, if the media and Liberals don't think you can actually win, you're at a huge disadvantage.

8. Saying you know how it will end, at the start of the race, is a good way to make yourself look dumb come May.


I still don't have a horse in this race yet. I'm looking towards the long term health of the Liberal Party and for a candidate who is truly committed to renewal. If no one fits that bill, well, maybe I won't be as involved in this race as I was in the last.

But regardless of how involved I get, expect a lot of coverage about The Race For Stornoway here. I'll probably revisit my leadership projections come January, once we get some donor data. And given the number of delegates who read blogs, I'd expect a blog interview or two - at the very least, I'll be sure to cover any events I'm at.

And, regardless of whether I'm a delegate or not, I'll be in Vancouver this May. It figures to be a fun weekend.

See You in Vancouver

OTTAWA – Liberal Party President Doug Ferguson today announced that the National Executive has chosen Vancouver as the site of the next Liberal Leadership Convention. The Convention will be held at the Vancouver Convention and Exhibition Centre from April 30, 2009 to May 3, 2009.

“After careful review of all viable options, I am proud to announce that Liberal delegates will choose the next Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada in beautiful British Columbia ,” said Mr. Ferguson.

Mr. Ferguson also commented on the importance of highlighting the national scope of the Liberal Party of Canada. This decision, it is hoped, will energize our grassroots in a region of the country which has never hosted a Liberal Leadership Convention.

In addition to the date and location of the Convention, the National Executive has set the entry fee for Leadership candidates at $90,000 and the spending limit at $1.5 million. A levy of 10% will also be imposed on directed donations. As an added measure, a rebate option will be available to candidates according to their ability to raise funds for the Victory Fund, a grassroots fundraising initiative of the Liberal Party of Canada.

So far, so good. I personally would have gone with something like a million dollar spending limit, $50,000 entry fee, and 25% tax (I'm a Liberal, I love taxes...), but I can't complain with any of their decisions so far.

Full rules to be announced tomorrow.

Taking a Pass

The great thing about another Liberal leadership race is that I can pretty much recycle my blog content from 2006. So, having updated my "Frank McKenna isn't running" post, it's time to update my "John Manley isn't running" post.

It's sad that Manley decided to take a pass, although it's hard to fault him given the difficulty of tossing together a leadership team in a few weeks. And a lot of Liberals dislike Manley for a lot of irrational reasons - his decision to put country over party for the Afghanistan review annoyed many, even though the Liberal caucus ended up supporting the position he recommended.

John Manley has always struck me as a straight shooter with integrity to spare. He also came across as a really great guy the few times I met him while working on his 2003 leadership campaign. Between that, his experience, and an impressive track record in a wide range of portfolios, I don't doubt John would have made a great Prime Minister.

So, with another heavyweight biting the dust, that leaves the field as follows:

In
Dominic LeBlanc
Bob Rae

Duh
Michael Ignatieff

Definitely, Maybe
Ruby Dhalla
Denis Coderre
Martin Cauchon
David McGuinty
Ujjal Dosanjh
Gerard Kennedy
Martha Hall Findlay

Long Shots
Carolyn Bennett
Ken Dryden
David Orchard
Belinda Stronach
Dave Bronconnier
Garth Turner

Taking a Pass
Scott Brison
Justin Trudeau
Frank McKenna
Dalton McGuinty
Carole Taylor
John Manley
Brian Tobin
Joe Volpe
Ralph Goodale (I assume, given his appointment as House Leader)
Louise Arbour
Elizabeth May


The rules will be announced Sunday at 1 pm Eastern...I'd expect that we'll have a good idea of the field within a week from then.

The Gerard Kennedy Experiment - Deux

Interesting...

Apparently, Gerard Kennedy is leaning strongly to running in the leadership as the party renewal candidate.

It will be interesting to see if the 308-riding strategy can lure Kennedy into the race. Like Obama running hard for delegates in Idaho, Kennedy is the candidate most likely to win delegates where the Liberals have been wiped out: rural BC, rural Alberta, Northern Ontario, etc.

Guess who's coming to dinner?

The Star had an excerpt from Linda Diebel's new book on Stephane Dion and the Liberal leadership race in yesterday's paper and it certainly looks like the book will be packed with behind the scenes stories and interviews.

The excerpts in the Star deal mostly with the post-leadership challenge of managing egos and bringing the team together. They certainly make for some interesting reading...