The Filibuster Comes To Canada

Last week's postal filibuster is the first real case study of the new political reality. If it's a preview of the next four years, I'd say Stephen Harper's 2015 re-elected chances look quite rosy.

Personally, I don't know who was on the side of the angels on this one. I'm not up on the specifics of the previous or current Canada Post labour contract, or the precedents for Parliament forcing a deal. Neither are most Canadians. Because of that, politically this wasn't about pensions or even unions - it was all about getting the mail going again.

Yes, in the year 2011 it's certainly possible to get by without the Post Office, but the lock-out was still a major inconvenience. Many Canadians rely on Canada Post for everything from cheques to Father's Day cards to birthday presents to credit card bills - you name it, we still mail it. I'd ordered some party supplies online that missed the party because of the strike. Not end of the world stuff, but still a nuisance. And most Canadians - including many New Democrat voters - seem to agree.

So the optics of the NDP fighting to keep the mail from coming likely didn't help them. Not only that, but they were going all out, merely to delay the inevitable. Their filibuster accomplished nothing, other than extending the lock-out.

A lot of pundits have already pointed out how this cements the perception of the NDP as a "pro union" party, but the other lasting effect is that this will likely take some of the punch out of their next filibuster. There's something to be said for valiantly working around the clock to fight for an issue you believe in - but if we see a dozen of these a year, they'll become more nuisance than inspiration. The filibuster should be used to keep an issue in the spotlight when the public agrees with you - not one you're likely to take a political hit on.

So mark this as a loss for the NDP. And what of the Liberals in all of this?

Good question. Welcome to life as a third party.

This pattern could very well repeat itself several times in the coming years. Harper picks an issue where the NDP are outside the mainstream and goads them into action. It makes the Dippers look bad, and marginalizes the Liberals.

Welcome to the new reality. One that couldn't be any more perfect for Stephen Harper.

Who says you can't go home?

Some guy named Michael Ignatieff weighs in on the life of Canadians living outside the country:

I was away a long time in Britain and the States, it’s true, but I kept coming back, writing for Canadian newspapers, broadcasting on the CBC, summers teaching at Banff, lectures everywhere, writing several books on Canadian themes. I kept my Canadian identity up to date, just as I kept renewing my passport.

It was when I decided to go into politics that coming home turned into a war. All politics is local, and the question then became, “Are you one of us?” I spent five years fighting to prove I belonged, while my opponents stopped at nothing to prove I didn’t. Just in it for myself. Just visiting. Not here for you.

There was a weird insinuation: Why would anyone come home, unless you were in it just for your self?

Could Have Been Elections: The Liberal-Democrats

In response to my previous "what if" post on running elxn41 under a preferential ballot, a few blog readers wondered how the election would have turned out had there been a Liberal-NDP merger.

The challenge with that kind of analysis is that we have no real way of knowing what 1 + 1 equals. Even merger proponents are not so naive as to assume every current Liberal and every current New Democrat would vote for a new Lib-Dem Party. The tricky part is figuring out how many would stay home or jump to other parties.

I've run these kinds of exercises before, but it doesn't hurt to update it given the new realities of the day. After all, even though a merger seems unlikely, it will be talked about at various times over the next four years - pretty much whenever columnists or bloggers are looking for something to write about during the otherwise dull life of a majority government.

I decided to go into this exercise using a "best case" scenario for the Lib-Dems. That is, I assume that every Liberal with the Conservatives as their second choice (17%) would vote Conservative and every NDP member with the Greens as their second choice (21%) would vote Green. But everyone else would vote for the new party. This would give the Lib-Dems a retention rate of over 80% - higher than the hold rate of the merged Conservative Party in 2004, despite the CPC being given the gift of Adscam (they held just 78.5% of the combined 2000 PC + CA vote).

Under this scenario, the end result is largely the same as now - a 160-seat Conservative majority and a 144-seat Liberal Democrat opposition.

Of course, this was the best case scenario. If the Liberals lose a quarter of their voters to the right and the NDP lose a quarter of their voters to the left, then Harper leads the Lib-Dems 178 to 125 seats in this restrospective hypothetical.

Perhaps a merger would make sense in the long term. But anyone who assumes it would be a quick-fix for booting the Conservatives just simply isn't looking at the numbers.

Change that puts people first

The Ontario NDP release their platform, chalk full of policies that are great news if you own a big house, drive a gas guzzler, or like coal power.

Partisan jabs aside, Andrea Horwath could do some serious damage in this fall's Ontario election - she's a far more impressive politician than Howard Hampton, and thanks to Jack Layton a vote for the NDP has been somewhat legitimized.

The Toughest Job in Politics

I won't say I feel bad for Pauline Marois - seeing the PQ implode a few weeks after the BQ was all but obliterated is Must See TV. But when looking at the problems besieging her, it's important to remember that Marois has the toughest job in politics.

Consider this. The PQ has knifed every successful leader they've ever had - even Rene Levesque and Lucien Bouchard were forced out. And now, Pauline Marois is under fire from all directions even though she has led in every poll released over the past year and earned a 93% show of support in last month's leadership review.

Three high-profile MNAs and Parizeau supporters quit on June 6th . They were followed by a fourth the next day. The official raison d'etre for their walk across the floor was a private members bill on Quebec City arena funding but, reading between the lines, it was obvious they left because Marois wasn't taking a hard line separatist position. Now, a fifth MNA has quit because Marois is too focused on sovereignty.

Talk about a tough crowd to please.

What to expect in the Liberal leadership marathon

The best way to think about the Liberal leadership race is like those velodrome cycling races you see at the Olympics. The gun sounds and two cyclists crawl around the track, quietly jockeying for position and looking over their shoulder to see where the field sits. Then, out of the blue, one racer starts sprinting and everyone is forced to join in on the mad dash to the finish line.

With the decision to put off the naming of a new leader for up to two years, the Liberal Party is now in to the "phony war" part of the cycling race. The starting gun has sounded, and the prospective candidates are quietly pushing and shoving for position as they slowly cycle the track, not wanting to break free. Sometime towards the end of 2012, one of them will start sprinting, and then the race will be on in full swing. When the candidates break remains to be seen, but keep in mind that anyone purchasing a membership form after October 1st, 2012 will be eligible to vote. My guess is most serious candidates will therefore spend next summer laying the groundwork for a Fall 2012 launch.

Then again, this sort of leadership timeline is unprecedented, so it's hard to know what to expect. But here are a few leadership rules that I believe will apply to this contest:


Rule 1: Don't look like you're running. The prevalent attitude among Liberals is that the party must rebuild before turning its attention to leadership. As such, potential candidates will need to be quiet when assembling their campaign teams. When asked if they might run, answers will range from "I don't think the party should be focusing on leadership now" (translation: "of course") to "I would sooner be beaten to death with live sea otters" (translation: "I'm thinking about it").


Rule 2: The early battles will be fought in cyberspace. In the end, it comes down to memberships sold on the ground. But until the floodgates open October 1st, 2012, the phony war will be fought online.

That's where trial candidacies will be floated, "draft Hellyer" websites will be launched, and "buzz" will be generated. A time will come when the media and LPC members decide who's a serious candidate and who isn't - that call is going to be mostly based on who seems to have the most momentum online.


Rule 3: Play nice. There was a time when Liberals could savagely tear themselves apart on everything from leadership to PEI Young Liberal Policy Chair elections. As a third place party, that luxury is gone. This is going to be a long leadership, and it might very well come down to members' second and third place choices. Any candidate seen to be playing dirty or taking cheap shots at the rest of the field is going to suffer for it.

Rule 3 Corollary: Candidates are responsible for their supporters. I know it sounds petty and it is, but many Liberals will base their vote on whose supporters have pissed them off the least. Candidates will need to keep their more overzealous supporters in check. And that includes "anonymous Senior Liberals" who are obviously spinning for a candidate.


Rule 4: The "establishment" matters less than ever before. The new leadership rules have stripped ex-officios of their power, and the end of delegated conventions means you don't have to find fanatics willing to put down $1000 to go vote at the convention. Sure, party stalwarts are still useful because they'll put in the time and influence others, but their impact will be muted compared to conventions past.

Moreover, I feel like there's a strong anti-establishment mood with the grassroots right now, to the point where having a lot of public "old guard" support might do candidates more harm than good.


Rule 5: Rural ridings rule. In this leadership race, each riding gets 100 points. And as mentioned above, you don't even have to find live bodies from the riding to fly to the convention. What that means is that signing up 10 Liberals in Crowfoot might very well be as good as signing up 400 Liberals in Toronto Centre.

Sure, you need Toronto Liberals for fundraising, but if I were running a leadership campaign, I'd have my candidate spend the bulk of his or her time barnstorming rural ridings. That's where this thing is going to be won.


Rule 6: Ignore the polls. As Prime Minister Ken Dryden will tell you, leadership race polls should be ignored 19 times out of 20.


Rule 7: The media may be off-base, but they can't be ignored. Media perceptions of the race may not always match membership sales, but these perceptions will still help shape the race.


Rule 8: You can't win by endorsing. If I were a candidate for leadership and I dropped out, I wouldn't endorse anyone else. Quite simply, it's a Kobayashi Maru.

In 2006, people blamed Gerard Kennedy for everything Stephane Dion said, even though Rae's decision to not back his old roommate was just as important in Dion's victory. I know supporters of Dominic Leblanc's aborted 2008 run still bitter about his decision to support the Iggy coronation.

By supporting another candidate, you inevitably alienate someone - better to just thank your supporters and tell them to follow their hearts.

Mark Your Calendars

Liberals have voted to pick a new leader sometime between March and June 2013. I was personally hoping for a shorter timeline but my sense from yesterday's conference call is Liberals are ready to get to work rebuilding the party in the interim. I think it's a little naive to assume no one will think about leadership for a year and a half, but this should at least cool the speculation for a bit.

Assuming Rae stays as interim leader right up until the vote, that would give him between 21 and 25 months in charge of the party...not much different from the 29 months Ignatieff held the post, the 24 months Dion was in charge, or even the 26 months Paul Martin was LPC leader.

Friday Link Grab Bag

A few random Friday thoughts:



1. Don't expect this weekend's NDP convention in Vancouver to be nearly as exciting as Wednesday night. Still, the possibility for riots and/or make out sessions does exist when delegates begin debating a motion to repeal the Clarity Act.


2. Speaking of the NDP convention, FarandWide has a good blog post up on NDP attempts to squeeze the Liberals.


3. The Liberals, meanwhile, will be holding an extraordinary telephone convention this weekend, to determine when we'll pick a new leader. Truth be told, I haven't decided how to vote yet - as I've said before, neither a 5 month mad dash or a 2 year marathon are appealing leadership options. I have writen to the LPC in support of Jeff Jedras' motion to hold the leadership vote next fall - I still think that's too far out, but it beats the alternatives.


4. Kudos to the Liberals and NDP for speaking out in favour of an asbestos ban. I've given the NDP some flack on this blog for choosing politics over principle in the past, but I'll give them props for doing the right thing, even if it doesn't jive with their new role as protectors of Quebec.


5. Samara has a fascinating report out, based on their MP exit interviews.


6. One incoming MP who managed to grab headlines this week was Elizabeth May, who was the sole voice in the House opposing the extension of the mission in Libya and the passage of mega trial bill.

While it's important for May to stay relevant, she'll need to learn to pick her battles - the quickest route to a headline is not always the quickest route to relevancy.

Not a Leader

That was how Stephen Harper described Stephane Dion in 2008, when "unelected" and "unaccountable" Liberal senators blocked Harper's senate reform legislation.



I look forward to the new attack ads:

Tory senator questions colleagues' loyalty to Harper

OTTAWA — A Conservative senator is calling into question his colleagues' loyalty to Prime Minister Stephen Harper after Tory senators revolted against his reforms and forced the government to change course on its Senate reform agenda, Postmedia News has learned.

What Could Have Been: Elxn41 Under a Preferential Ballot

One of the democratic reform initiatives that never seems to get much publicity is the preferential ballot. Yet it's simple, assures the majority of the riding backs the winning candidate, and helps avoid some of the dangerous strategic voting mis-steps we see all too often. It's how parties elect their leaders, yet we assume Canadians can't handle ranking candidates 1-2-3.

So what kind of impact would a preferential ballot have had on the previous election?

To determine this, I looked back at the final "second choice" poll numbers from the last campaign (seen here, here, and here), applied a few minor regional corrections, and ran run-offs in each riding where the winning candidate received fewer than half the vote. So if the Greens were fourth, their votes were scatered based on the second choice of Green voters. Then if the Liberals were third, their votes were scatered based on the second choice of Liberal voters.

It's not an exact science, but it's close enough for a fun "what if" exercise.

The result?

CPC: 147
NDP: 115
Lib: 44
BQ: 1
Green: 1

In the end, only 25 seats change, but that's enough to knock the Conservatives down to a minority. The majority of their loses come from Ontario, with ridings like London North Centre, Willowdale, and the Don Valleys staying red. While the Liberals snag 13 Tory seats under this system, they'd lose some star power with Misters Trudeau, Garneau, and Lamoureux all drowning under the orange wave. After all, as bizarre as it may sound, even Conservative voters were more likely to lean NDP than Liberal by the end of the last campaign.

The NDP would therefore snag seats from the Tories, Liberals, and Bloc, and would come out of Quebec with a remarkable 66 seats.

So while it makes a certain amount of sense, it's not something I'd expect to see anytime soon unless Stephen Harper is feeling in a particularly self-destructive mood.


UPDATE - NBPolitico looks at what might have been under other voting systems

Who's on top?

Macleans updates it's 1997 list ranking Canada's Best PMs, and produces the following top 10:

1. Wilf
2. Johnny Mac
3. The Lyon
4. Mikey B
5. PET
6. JC
7. Uncle Louis
8. Robbie B
9. Lyin' Brian
10. The Chief

From top to bottom, it's a well researched and thoughtful list. As someone who has read many Prime Ministerial bios and studied this in school, I'm not sure I would have shifted anyone on the list by more than a few spots from where they wound up (though I'd personally rank Macdonald first).

As some of you may recall, I ran a bracket-style contest along these lines on this blog in 2005 and, sure enough, Laurier defeated Macdonald in the final by a 403-340 vote. King and Trudeau both fell in the semi-finals.

This Week in Alberta - Jumping the Queue

Stephen Duckett (AKA Cookie Monster) has raised a stir by suggesting some politically connected individuals receive preferential treatment in Alberta's Health Care system, and are able to jump the queue.

The PCs have generally shrugged this one off, like most accusations against their government, but there has been one notable exception - leadership candidate Allison Redford, who has joined the call of the opposition parties and editorials for a public inquiry.


ALSO IN THE NEWS...

- The Alberta Liberals signed up 1,000 new supporters in the first week of their new open primary style membership system. And now, Alf Apps is talking about the federal Liberals doing the same thing.

- Ed Stelmach remains unpopular. But his numbers are improving.

We must fight this hailstorm of praise!

Oh, the challenges of fundraising when you can't blame the opposition or Liberal Senators for defeating your agenda:

CPC appeals to party supporters to finance fight against media, pundits

With a stable majority government for the next four years and the Liberal Party still reeling from the election results, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party is calling on supporters to dip into their wallets to help the party counter a new foe.

In a letter sent out in the past few days, Conservative Party President John Walsh is urging supporters to help the party counter a “hailstorm” of negative attacks from the media, pundits and the “opinion elite.”

Walsh says the party had to fight off attacks during the last election and expects them to continue.

“During this election campaign, we faced an onslaught of negative attacks like never before from the media, from pundits and from anti-Conservative lobby groups and union executives,” Walsh wrote in a copy of the letter obtained by iPolitics.

For those who may not remember all of the nasty things the opinion elites said about the Conservatives during the election, feel free to browse the editorial endorsements from the 31 (out of 34) media organizations who endorsed the Tories.

"We have to be a national party"

As I mentioned earlier, Mark Holland gave a real barn burner at the ALP convention the weekend before last.

What made it such a great speech was that he avoided the usual cliches you get from federal politicians when they come to Calgary - "Alberta Liberals are the best Liberals! Stephen Harper is awful! Go local sports team!". Rather, Holland captured the mood of the room, and made a compelling case about the challenges facing the party nationally. If you'd taken a vote for party president in the room afterwards, it would have been a landslide.

The complete speech can be viewed bellow, but I want to draw your attention to a key section:

Politics Reimagined: Mark Holland from Corey Hogan on Vimeo.

"What we saw in Alberta, we wrote off as an aberration, rather than looking at it as a harbinger of what was to come. Rather than looking at it as a sign that we had to change our politics, we retreated and gave them safe harbour. We allowed them to not worry about it - we have Conservative MPs who don't even go to their own ridings because they don't figure they have to. And as we retreated from Alberta, we retreated from Quebec. And as we retreated from Quebec, we retreated from rural Canada. And as we retreated from rural Canada, we found the Conservatives focusing all their energies on our remaining seats as we tried desperately to protect them.

We have to be a national party. We have to recognize that if we're not successful in places like Calgary and Edmonton, we won't be successful at all."


I know in the post-subsidy world, there's less incentive to be competitive in all parts of the country. And like Mark said in his speech, there's a huge temptation for the "quick fix", or to only focus on winning back seats like his in the 905.

But as I've argued before, there's no reason the Liberal Party can't be competitive in at least 7 or 8 Calgary and Edmonton ridings. It's not necessarily about winning those seats in 2015 - it's about laying the groundwork so that a strong national campaign will turn them red. It's what the NDP did to go from third-to-first in Edmonton Strathcona, and it's what they're in the process of doing in Edmonton East and Edmonton Centre.

So what does a 308 riding strategy look like?

There are a lot of things that could be a part of it. Some ideas I've heard:

1. Nominate candidates early. Avoid the temptation for "star" candidates. Instead, find people involved in the community, with a team of hard working volunteers, who are willing to door knock the riding over and over again for the next eight years.

2. Send the leader and MPs there. Obviously enough, the Liberal leader isn't going to spend the entire election in Alberta, but there's no reason Liberal MPs can't put the time in between campaigns. Be sure to hold Town Halls and talk to the local papers when they're there.

3. Engage the existing members. Even if it's just a case of the party's Natural Resources Critic calling the Fort McMurray membership list and asking them what they think about a contentious oilsands issue, at least they'll feel listened to and like an important part of the big red machine.

4. It's important to make sure all ridings are at a minimum level to function properly. The Change Commission made a lot of recommendations to this end (most of which were ignored), including the hiring of field workers, and providing weaker ridings with the resources they need in the form of handbooks, website templates, new member welcome packages, and election readiness kits.

5. Create a "deal" of sorts with the ridings, where the party provides resources in exchange for certain targets being met. One example I heard recently was that the LPC would offer to ID voters via a demon dial of the riding, so long as local Liberals followed up with identified Liberals and invited them out to local events (ideally, something simple like a Liberal BBQ with a federal MP).

There are many other things the party could do as part of a 308-riding strategy. At the top of the list is writing up a clear plan with timelines and targets - and making sure it is actually implemented.

As Mark Holland said in his speech, there's no easy road back or short cut. It's going to take a lot of work.

Most Exciting Ridings in Canada

We've now had 4 elections under the current 308 riding electoral map, a period over which the Canadian political landscape has completely transformed itself.

2004:


2011:


Still, that doesn't mean every local election has been exciting - after all, if you live in Calgary East or York West, your vote hasn't been overly meaningful at any point over the past decade.

For interests sake, I've calculated an "excitement score" for every riding based on how close the last four elections have been and how many times they've shifted hands. Yes, this is a fairly arbitrary exercise, but consider it like those "best places to live" lists...only for political junkies.


Most Exciting Ridings in Canada

1. Brossard-La Prairie: The riding where I grew up has changed hands every election - from Liberal to Bloc to Liberal to NDP. In 2008, it took a recount to sort it out.

2. Louis-Hebert: You'll notice a few Quebec seats on this list, for obvious reasons. Like Brossard, it has switched hands each election.

3. Vancouver Island North: A perpetual Conservative-NDP battle, the margin of victory has been under 5% in each of the last four elections.

4. Parkdale-High Park: This riding has made headlines during the last two campaigns due to the high profile and often nasty Gerard Kennedy-Peggy Nash battles. But even before then, the Liberals and NDP each pulled off narrow victories in 2004 and 2006.

5. Newton North Delta: Gurmant Grewal's old riding has not been a warm comfy mat with lots of fur for incumbents, with the Tories losing it in 2006 to the Liberals, who in turn were turfed in 2011.

6. Papineau: Believe it or not, Justin Trudeau's margin of victory in 2011 was by far the most lopsided result in Papineau over the past decade, with no other election won by more than 3 percentage points.

7. Surrey North: From Chuck Cadman (Ind) to Penny Priddy (NDP) to Dona Cadman (CPC) to Jasbir Sandhu (NDP).

8. Jeanne-Le Ber: Turned into an NDP rout this election after three close Liberal-BQ battles.

9. Ahuntsic: No party has won this riding by more than 3 points in any of the past four elections.

10. Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca: Keith Martin always clung to victory and, with his departure, the riding quickly morphed into a tight CPC-NDP duel.


Those are the most exciting ridings. The least? Well, it should be no surprise that all 10 are in Alberta, with Crowfoot topping the list. The closest Crowfoot has been over the past decade was in 2004, when Kevin Sorenson won it by a measly 73 percentage points, earning over 10 times as many votes as the second place candidate.

Rerun Season

For the first time in a long time, we have a budget that can be judged on its content, rather than its electoral implications.

So while the opportunity now exists to read the actual document without worrying about who will vote for and against it, there's not a lot to be said about it - it was basically a re-release of Flaherty's March budget with the political subsidy phase out and a promise about HST cash for Quebec thrown in. As the least surprising budget in Canadian history, it will be hard for anyone to write anything remotely insightful about it.

So I'm not going to try.

If Flaherty can recycle his budget, I can recycle my response. Here's what I wrote about the budget back in March - it still stands today, except for the part of the electoral implications:

While it's a pretty uninspiring budget, it's a very impressive platform.

While I'm a little disappointed there's no blogging tax credit in this budget, Jim Flaherty appears to have given every single other Canadian some kind of token tax credit - something voters are sure to notice as they complete their taxes this April.

Have a sick relative? Well, there's the family caregiver tax credit, stolen from the Liberals' Family Care plan. Have a kid who plays piano? There's a tax credit for that. Are you a low income Senior? Here's an extra $12 a month.

Expecting to be mercilessly attacked on their corporate tax cuts, they've closed a corporate tax loophole. Knowing they'll be attacked on a dirty environmental record, the ecoEnergy program gets extended to much fanfare (even though it has existed for 14 years).

But surely this will anger the Tory base, n'est-ce-pas? Well, there's a tax credit for volunteer firefighters. And programs to get more doctors in rural areas.

The budget lacks direction. Nothing in it will do a lot for the economy. Most voters won't get more than a few dollars from it. But the budget is full of the kind of promises that sound good in stump speeches and look good in commercials.

Today we saw the Tory platform and, truth be told, it's an impressive document.

The point is, it was a platform-budget full of populist policies well suited for the pre-election landscape of the time. I obviously don't expect Jim Flaherty to re-write a budget he was just re-elected on, but starting next year, I hope we start to see more substance and a greater long term focus from Jim.

Au Revoir

The Parti Quebecois have basically been handed the next provincial election if they want it. But much like the BC NDP, all indications are their answer is "thanks, but no thanks".

The latest problem for them is the defection of three high profile MNAs. And why are they defecting you ask? Over contentious issues surrounding sovereignty, reasonable accommodation, or Quebec's massive deficit?

Nope.

Over a private members bill about a hockey arena:

3 PQ members leave party
Beaudoin, Curzi, Lapointe will sit as independant MNAs

Three influential Parti Québécois members of the national assembly are leaving Quebec's sovereigntist party, largely because of a controversial bill to protect the provincial capital and its management deal on the city's new hockey arena.

Louise Beaudoin, the member for Montreal's Rosemont riding, Pierre Curzi, who represents Borduas, and Lisette Lapointe, the member for Crémazie and the wife of former PQ leader Jacques Parizeau, announced Monday morning that they will sit as independents committed to sovereignty.

Their decision was triggered by a private member's bill sponsored by PQ member Agnès Maltais to protect the City of Quebec after the multimillion-dollar deal it made with media giant Quebecor to operate the future arena.

Report to the LPC Membership...

...by ALF APPS. As posted on Facebook earlier today:

REPORT TO THE MEMBERSHIP

from the NATIONAL PRESIDENT of the LIBERAL PARTY OF CANADA
June 3, 2011

FELLOW LIBERALS:

I AM PLEASED TO REPORT TO YOU ON THE RECENT ACTIVITIES OF YOUR NATIONAL BOARD AT THIS EXTREMELY CRITICAL MOMENT IN OUR PARTY’S HISTORY.

EXACTLY ONE MONTH AGO, ON THE MORNING OF MAY 3RD, LIBERALS ACROSS CANADA AWOKE TO DEAL WITH THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE WORST ELECTION DEFEAT IN OUR HISTORY – INCLUDING THE DEFEAT OF OUR LEADER IN HIS OWN RIDING.

THAT VERY DAY, MICHAEL IGNATIEFF ANNOUNCED THAT HE WOULD BE STEPPING DOWN AS LEADER.

HIS ANNOUNCEMENT, TOGETHER WITH A FORMAL LETTER THAT FOLLOWED CONFIRMING HIS RESIGNATION, IRREVOCABLY SET SOME EVENTS IN MOTION UNDER OUR CONSTITUTION.

FOR GOOD OR ILL, THE NATIONAL BOARD IS CURRENTLY THE SUPREME AUTHORITY OF OUR PARTY BETWEEN CONVENTIONS. IT IS A BODY WHICH CONSISTS OF THE ELECTED OFFICERS OF THE PARTY NATIONALLY AND FROM EVERY PROVINCE AND TERRITORY ACROSS THE COUNTRY, FROM ALL FOUR OF OUR PARTY COMMISSIONS AND FROM THE CAUCUS.

[snip]

I HAVE CONVENED A MEETING OF THE NATIONAL BOARD FOR JULY 9, 2011, AT WHICH TIME, WORKING CLOSELY WITH OUR INTERIM LEADER AND CAUCUS, WE WILL ADDRESS THE FOLLOWING KEY CHALLENGES:

1. A PROCESS FOR CONDUCTING A NATIONAL ELECTION POST-MORTEM ENGAGING CAUCUS, CAMPAIGN PERSONNEL, DEFEATED CANDIDATES, PARTY OFFICERS AND OTHER LIBERALS;

2. THE NEAR-TERM FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL RESTRUCTURING OF THE PARTY REQUIRED DUE TO OUR REDUCED STANDING IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS AND IN RESPONSE TO THE REDUCTION IN OUR PUBLIC SUBSIDY AS A RESULT OF OUR LOWER VOTE TOTALS IN THE LAST ELECTION AND THE IMMINENT REDUCTION AND LOSS OF THE PER VOTER SUBSIDY ON ACCOUNT OF THE PENDING BUDGET;

3. THE PROCESS THROUGH WHICH LIBERALS THROUGHOUT CANADA CAN BE ENGAGED IN A FUNDAMENTAL RE-IMAGINING OF THE ROLE AND FUNCTION OF THE LIBERAL PARTY, INCLUDING ITS CORE VALUES AND BELIEFS, THEIR APPLICABILITY IN OUR EVOLVING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY, MODERN METHODS THROUGH WHICH ORDINARY CITIZENS CAN BE BROUGHT TO A DEEPER LEVEL OF ENGAGEMENT AND COMMITMENT TO ITS MISSION;

4. A PROGRAMME FOR BUILDING UP OUR MEMBERSHIP AND FUNDRAISING BASE OVER THE BALANCE OF THE COMING YEAR;

5. THE PROCESS PURSUANT TO WHICH RANK AND FILE LIBERALS WILL BE ENGAGED IN DEVELOPING, CONSIDERING AND PRIORITIZING POLICY AND CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM RESOLUTIONS FOR DEBATE AND DETERMINATION AT THE UPCOMING BIENNIAL CONVENTION; AND

6. PLANNING FOR THE NEXT BIENNIAL CONVENTION ITSELF.

WE HAVE TO WORK HARDER AND FASTER THAN EVER TO BUILD UP OUR MEMBERSHIP AND OUR WAR-CHEST, BUT THE SILVER LINING OF OUR RECENT DEFEAT IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A COMPLETELY FRESH START AND FOR GENUINE CHANGE IN HOW OUR PARTY WORKS, COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT TIME NOT ONLY TO UNDERTAKE OUR IMPORTANT WORK OF REBUILDING, RENEWAL AND REFORM WITH DUE CONSIDERATION AND CARE, BUT ALSO TO ENGAGE LIBERALS EVERYWHERE IN THAT PROCESS.

OVER THE COMING MONTHS, YOUR NATIONAL BOARD LOOKS FORWARD TO RECEIVING YOUR INPUT ON THESE AND OTHER QUESTIONS AS WE MOVE FORWARD TO BUILD A BETTER AND STRONGER LIBERAL PARTY FOR THE YEARS TO COME.

SINCERELY,

ALFRED APPS

Here for all Canadians

You can read the first Stephen Harper majority government throne speech here. But you probably don't need to.

After all, there are few surprises in it, which is in line with Harper's "stability" message repeated every day during the election campaign. The throne speech's proposals for Senate reform, new House of Commons seats, and crime bills were already known. I'm not happy about Harper's pledge to scrap the gun registry and the wheat board, but we all knew that was coming.

And in honour of the new era of civility, let me give Harper credit for his pledge to sign free trade deals with the EU by 2012 and India by 2013. And for his push for a national securities regular. Again, not new and not sexy, but things that will benefit Canada.

Monday is budget day. Once again, don't expect the earth to move - all indications are it will be a rehash of Flaherty's March budget, with a few trinkets like the axing of the political party public subsidy thrown in.

"We need to rip open our party. Think about making it almost open source."

Mark Holland gave a barn burner speech at the ALP convention on Saturday night that had the entire crowd buzzing - I'll be sure to post it if I can track down the video.

Until then, here's what Mark had to say about the challenges facing the Liberal Party earlier in the day.

The Race for Kingsmere

A new-look Parliament resumes today, with the first order of business the naming of a new speaker to replace Peter Milliken.

A slew of Conservatives who realize they will never be in Cabinet have put their names forward, including Barry Devolin, Lee Richardson, Bruce Stanton, Merv Tweed, Dean Allison, Ed Hold, and Andrew Scheer, along with NDPer Denise Savoie. While Denise would be great, I would be shocked to see Conservative MPs vote for a speaker from the opposition benches when they enjoy a comfortable majority.

My money is on Scheer, who was the runner-up to Milliken in 2008, but I'm certainly not apprised of all the backroom chatter and horse trading, so we might get a surprise. Either way, I'll be sure to post an update here as soon as the new speaker is dragged to his, or her, chair.


UPDATE: Off to the 5th ballot we go. Scheer (the favourite), Savoie (the Dipper), and Richardson (the rumoured anti-PMO candidate) left standing.


UPDATE: The final ballots are being counter, but Wikipedia has already crowned Scheer the winner. That, and the Tory voting bloc majority, are good enough for me. Speaker Scheer it is! At the age of 32, the youngest ever.

The ever shrinking Liberal shadow

There's only so much you can read into the critic portfolios assigned to the third party in the house - especially when numbers dictate that everyone gets something. But the Liberal shadow cabinet deserves a bit of attention, if only because it marks Bob Rae's first significant public decision as interim leader.

Among the notables:

-Ralph Goodale is an obvious and deserving choice as Deputy Leader, given his experience and the need to grow the party west of Mississauga.

-In Rae's most notable and encouraging move, Stephane Dion winds up with intergovernmental affairs and democratic reform. True, these are not high profile posts in the Harper government (quick quiz: name the intergovernmental affairs minister), but between the NDP's murky position on the Clarity Act and the number of Premiers jumping into the Senate reform frenzy, this is an important role, and one Dion is perfectly suited for.

-On the leadership front, Dominic LeBlanc takes over from Rae as Foreign Affairs critic, while Justin Trudeau settles for sport, youth, and post-secondary education. Score one for Dom.

-Scott Brison is back in Finance, a critic role he is familiar with and performs well at.

-Hedy Fry and Geoff Regan get big promotions to Health Care and Industry.

Election by Numbers

I've updated my election spreadsheet, and will be posting some riding-by-riding analysis over the next while. For now, a list of somewhat interesting numbers from the last campaign:


1: Ridings the Bloc Quebecois won by more than 3 percentage points, showing how close they came to a complete wipe out.

2: Ridings won by the Liberals without a Liberal incumbent - Charlottetown (Sean Casey) and Kingston and the Islands (Ted Hsu).

3: Number of ridings in Alberta where the Liberals finished second, down from 9 in 2008 and 19 in 2006.

9: The number of ridings where the Greens got at least 10% of the vote, down from 41 in 2008.

10: Number of provinces where Liberal and Green support dropped from 2008. The NDP increased in support everywhere except Newfoundland, with the Conservatives up everywhere except Quebec.

20: The number of ridings the Liberals won by more than 5 percentage points, down from 63 in 2008.

28: The number of ridings where turnout was down from 2008, with the largest drops coming in Bourassa, Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel, and York West.

33: Number of ridings where the Liberals increased their raw vote total from 2008, with 5000+ vote gains coming in Winnipeg North, Guelph, and Central Nova. Admittedly, increasing Liberal support in Central Nova from 2008 wasn't too hard.

45: The number of seats the NDP took from the BQ. They won 17 former Liberal seats, 7 former CPC seats, and Andre Arthur's.

74: Number of ridings (out of 75) where the Bloc vote went down. Congrats to rookie MP Jean-François Fortin who increased BQ support by 649 votes in Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia.

16,283: The most votes received by an independent candidate, by James Ford in Edmonton-Sherwood Park.

26,097: The vote increase from 2008 for the NDP in Montcalm, their largest gain in the country.

57,282: The number of votes the Liberals received in Calgary, marking the first time in a long time (and perhaps ever) the Liberals got more votes in Calgary than in Edmonton (43,331).