Biggest Election: It's 88

With 56% of the vote, the 1988 Federal Election has been crowned Canada's biggest by Calgary Grit readers, knocking off Tommy Douglas' 1944 Saskatchewan win in the final.

With a federal election about to start up, it was probably appropriate to look back at some of the big elections from the past. And there are certainly lessons all parties can learn from '88, as there are from all past elections.

Without a doubt, 1988 was Canada's most exciting election. There was a real policy debate, an unfolding national unity crisis, great ads, a mid-campaign coup attempt, an exhilarating debate, a real three-party race, and a see-saw campaign that was in doubt until the end. And, for better or worse, Mulroney's second term would shape Canadian politics for the next 20 years thanks to the Meech collapse, the Tory collapse, the rise of Reform and Bloc, free trade, and the GST. So I don't think this election won just because it was more familiar to voters (after all, my Greatest PM contest featured a Laurier-MacDonald final) - I think it truly is a deserving winner.

A big thanks to everyone who voted, and to John Duffy for seeding the elections. And now, the attention of this blog can turn squarely to the present and the next "big" election we're about to embark on. It certainly doesn't appear to have the makings of a historic one but, then again, the element of surprise is why a lot of the elections in this contest can truly be called "historic".


Final Vote
Provincial Final
Federal Final
Provincial Semis
Federal Semis
Provincial Quarters
Federal Quarters

Going Green

I haven't seen it on any of the big news outlets yet, but National Newswatch is reporting that former Liberal MP Blair Wilson is about to become Canada's first Green MP.

Admittedly, he won't sit as a Green MP. And this little bit of history will only last a few days. And getting an MP who no one else wanted in their caucus isn't a sensational catch. But, still, it's probably a good move by the Greens - they grab some headlines and (marginally) improve their case for being included in the debates.

As for the election implications - well, here are the '06 results.

Blair Wilson (Lib) 37.5%
John Weston (CPC) 36.0%
Judith Wilson (NDP) 20.1%
Silvaine Zimmermann (Green) 6.2%

North to the Future

John McCain has picked Alaska governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate - in my opinion, a strategically brilliant selection. Her negatives shouldn't be crippling. I assume the vetting process made sure the mini-scandals that have dogged her won't get bigger. And while picking an inexperienced VP makes it harder for McCain to attack Obama for the same thing, McCain has already decided he won't be using the failed Hillary Clinton "he's inexperienced" playbook.

Her positives are obvious enough - she'll bring youth and excitement to the ticket. And, let's not kid anyone, her main purpose is obviously to attract female voters, especially disgruntled Clinton supporters. It also appears that McCain is keen on reviving the "maverick" myth, in an effort to distance himself from Bush, so picking an obscure Alaskan Governor is about as "outside Washington" as you can get.

Of course, I'll be the first to admit I don't know a lot about Palin - if she turns out to be an empty vessel, then this pick could backfire spectacularly. McCain took a risk but, up against Obama, this was probably a risk worth taking.

Speaking of Obama, I haven't had a chance to watch his convention speech yet - that's on the agenda for this evening. But the early reviews have been very positive.

October Surprise - Part 2

Paging all legal experts, paging all legal experts...can we expect this to be a big deal media-wise if it were to happen in, oh, say, the final week of a campaign, or is this going to be a non event? And how long after the hearings for standing does the juicy stuff usually get going? Could that be a reason for the rushed election?

Inquiring minds want to know...

MEDIA ADVISORY
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
HEARING DATES SET FOR STANDING BEFORE OLIPHANT COMMISSION

Ottawa, August 15, 2008 - The Oliphant Commission announced today the dates for the Hearings for Standing before the Commission of Inquiry into Certain Allegations Respecting Business and Financial Dealings Between Karlheinz Schreiber and the Rt. Honourable Brian Mulroney.

The Hearing for Standing will take place from 9:30 a.m. to 5 p.m., October 2nd and 3rd and, if necessary, October 6th and 7th at the Bytown Pavilion, 111 Sussex Drive, Ottawa, and will be open to the media.

Yoo-hoo, hello, over here!

Price of gas would rise under Grit or Tory plans, say experts

While I don't for a minute doubt that the energy experts are in on the anti-Conservative conspiracy with the CBC /ElectionCanada /judges/ doctors/ everybodyelsewhodisagreeswithHarper, I thought this was an interesting story, well in line with what others have said.

Although on the flip side, this also means that Harper's plan, if enacted, isn't nearly as toothless as his adversaries would have people believe. It just means that the $8 lettuce era is coming, regardless of who gets in (I know I'm building up my stockpile of lettuce heads in preparation for this!).

Parliamentary Death Watch: Thursday Edition

A recap of election speculation from the past few days:

-The GG has been grounded and will not be going to Beijing for the Paralympics. Sure, sure, everyone assumes this is so Harper can call an election but, really, isn't it just part of his greater ploy to destroy our relationship with China?

-Harpers aims to crush Liberals. Well, duh. Isn't that the point? I actually agree with Flanagan's theory completely, however I'm not sure how a September 5th election call facilitates crushing the Liberals better than a September 15th one would? But, yeah, Flanagan is right - Harper wants to crush the Liberals and, given the fundraising gap between the two, he's en route to doing that.


-Oh, and while the Guelph by election will soon be irrelevant, this is a pretty funky political map of the riding.

If You're Watching The Democratic Convention And Have A Bottle Of Whiskey...

...take a drink every time a speaker talks about how much they love the troops and/or have a war veteran relative.


OTHER RANDOM THOUGHTS: -Biden's giving one heck of a speech. "These times require more than a good soldier, they require a wise leader" - ouch.

-I must say the "accidental" freudian slips of calling McCain "George Bush" are amusing, but they'd get old really quickly.

Dion and Harper Explained

Dion
We want an election...no we don't...yes we do...no we don't...yes we do...it's awful that Harper wants an election. I won't meet with Harper because this discussion is too important to have over the phone...but not important enough for me to reschedule a single event of mine over the next two weeks.

Harper
Parliament is dysfunctional, even though we passed all the legislation we wanted. It's so dysfunctional that I'm going to break my own election law to end this parliament. I'd rather govern until October 2009...but govern an extra week in order to meet the other party leaders? Are you insane?

McCain Responds

Dear Friend -

I am about to make one of the most important decisions of this campaign - choosing a running mate.

You have helped build this movement from the bottom up, and I want you to be the first to know after I choose my candidate and he has been approved by the religious right.

To be the first to know, simply fill out the form below:

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Once you've signed up, please let your friends and coworkers know about this special opportunity.

No other campaign has done this before. You can be part of this important moment!

Thanks,

John

October Surprise

With all the buzz about an October 14th election date, this is noteworthy:

As he mulls over possible dates for a general election campaign, Prime Minister Stephen Harper may want to take a glance at the fall catalogue for Les Editions de l'Homme. That's where the Quebecor-owned publishing house announces that Julie Couillard's kiss and tell autobiography will be in stores starting Oct. 14 - which could put it right in the middle of an election campaign.

Which means excerpts and leaked copies (somewhat ironically) would be going out during the homestretch of the campaign.

The Talking Points, They Are A Changin'

Dion

July 23, 2008: Canadians Ready for a Fall Election, Dion Says

August 24, 2008: Dion Says Harper Could Reconsider Election Call



Layton

August 8, 2008: Told that Canadians are wondering when the next election will be, Layton's response was, "Me too, the sooner the better."

August 21, 2008: NDP Leader Against Early Election Call



Harper

"What we have achieved over the fall and particularly over the spring, I think it's a remarkable record of achievement."

-Stephen Harper, June 2008

“Quite frankly, I'm going to have to make a judgment in the next little while as to whether or not this Parliament can function productively.”

-Stephen Harper, August 2008

Canada's Biggest Election Final

After starting with 16, we're down to the final round of Canada's Biggest Election. The 1988 Free Trade Election crushed the competition in every round on the federal side, while the 1944 Saskatchewan election eeked out a 2 vote win over 1976 Quebec to take the title of the biggest provincial election.

So the final is set. The excitement of '88, against the long term impact of '44. Voting is open until Wednesday at 10 pm.

What Was Canada's Biggest Election?
(1) 1988 Federal Election
(2) 1944 Saskatchewan Provincial Election
See Results

Text We Can!

Has anyone else been incredibly excited at every incoming text message they've gotten over the past 48 hours?

I keep glancing down expecting a "sorry 2 keep u waitng - my vp is biden", even when the aforementioned text comes in at 11 pm.

Soon...soon...


UPDATE: According to the CNN ticker, Bayh, Clinton and Kaine are out, while there is "activity" at the Bidens. So all signs are pointing to Joe, with the text coming tomorrow morning.

I must say, while Sebelius had been my choice, I think Biden would make a very clean, articulate, bright Vice Presidential nominee.


JOMENTUM UPDATE: Biden it is. Not a bad pick, although the 3 a.m. announcement was a bit odd. If done on Thursday or Friday afternoon, the text messages/e-mails could have generated some word of mouth buzz and gotten evening news and Saturday newspaper coverage.

I'm hoping they use Biden as the attack dog, because I think the Obama campaign has been a bit too cautious so far, and has allowed McCain to define the agenda so far.

This Week in Alberta

Admittedly, it's only slightly more interesting than the Ontario NDP leadership race to most people. But, for Liberals in Alberta, it's where the action will be this fall. I've decided the best way to cover the race is with weekly updates, so welcome to your very first Friday edition of "This Week in Alberta".


Swann Dives Into The Race: David Swann has declared his intentions to run for ALP leadership, setting up the biggest David versus David showdown since the American Idol finale. Swann is staking out the anti-establishment terrain, musing about drastic changes to the ALP, and Alberta politics:

"We've got to change the way we make decisions -- it is a middle-age, white male organization," said Swann [ed note: aged 58, white, and male], adding the party needs to be more inclusive by reaching out to youth and minorities. He also said ditching the name Liberal from party banners must be on the table.

Swann is kind of the Ted Morton of the left, drawing huge amounts of support from environmentalists, activists, and Green/NDP types. His candidacy will bring a lot of new people into the party and he's a force to be reckoned with in a one-member-one-vote leadership contest.

The other David responded by sending out a press release yesterday in an attempt to define the clash as a centre/left fight:

I've come out and argued that we need to align ourselves firmly in the center. I want to position the Party as business friendly and as a subject of conversation at the local coffee shop. David Swann meanwhile has been attractive to those on the left of the political spectrum. So it should allow people a clear indication of which path each of us would take the Party down. Liberals will have a choice of continuing to fight for the left or making a stand for the center.

Tayl-Air Takes Off: Dave Taylor has taken off for a cross-Alberta tour, and let me say it’s a smart thing to do. In a one member one vote leadership, there’s hardly anything to be gained from spending time in rural Alberta but, in the long run, the Liberals need to be seen as a party that represents all Albertans.

Whoever winds up leading the ALP/party-to-be-named-later should announce that they’re tearing up the party platform and going on a cross-province tour to listen to Albertans. It’s all optics, but optics are important.


The Third Stooge Speaks: Mo's website has been re-done and now contains priorities and a platform.


Blakeman Bows Out: Laurie Blakeman, citing fundraising difficulties (Laurie gets full marks for honesty), has decided to take a pass at the ALP leadership. Hugh MacDonald and Rick Miller remain possibilities from Edmonton but, barring a wild card entry, this one may very well be a three man race.



In Springfield, Alberta: Mutant Fish!

The Harper Exemption

Stephen Harper has announced that he may decide to go ahead and call an election, despite his own fixed election date law that forbids him to do just that. Apparently it’s more of a “fixed election guideline” than a“fixed election law”.

I wonder if it applies to the rest of Harper’s democratic reform package?

Corporate donations are illegal…unless the corporation believes a donation is needed.

Personal donations are capped at $1,000…unless you feel like donating more.

Political staffers are banned from lobbying for five years…unless they get a really good job offer.



UPDATE: Harper plans to meet with the opposition leaders and if he determines they intend to bring his government down (which they will, just because Gilles Duceppe has a death wish), he may pull the plug himself.

Which begs the obvious question: If the opposition plans to defeat him, why not just let them?

So Long As Grants To Wannabe Hockey Historians Aren't Cut...

Tories slashing $44.8-million in arts spending

Last Chance to Vote

Voting in the provincial final closes at 10 pm today and it's a close one between the separatists and the socialists...

UPDATE: In a squeaker, '44 Sask takes it with 50.6% of the vote. That election will take on the '88 federal campaign this Sunday for the title of Canada's Biggest Election.

Poll Problems

Unrepentant Old Hippie investigates the rather suspect poll released on the Guelph by election today.

Today's Word is "Inaction Action"

Stephen Harper has learned the hard way that when you promise to do things, people get upset when you don't actually do them. I can understand Harper's naivete on this - after all, Canadians kept re-electing the Liberals for 13 years despite breaking promises at the rate Michael Phelps breaks world records. But the missing 5th priority upset pundits. The income trust flip flop upset rich seniors (who, you know, vote). And the "fixed election date (unless I want an election)" law has shown that a promise that sounds good one day can become a bit of a drag the next.

One way to circumvent this is to adopt the John Baird strategy of making promises no one can accuse you of breaking for 42 years. However, looking at the Liberals these days, 42 years of Tory government doesn't seem wholly impossible so Harper has had to find a new strategy.

Hence, what I like to call, "Inaction Action".

The first example of this strategy occurred last winter when Jack Layton looked at all that was wrong with Canada and found his issue - ATM fees! Enter Jim Flaherty and his "sure, I'll talk about this with the banks" response. Notice no firm promise that anything would actually change. No bold claim that he'd end the era of bickering between banks and their customers. Nope, simply a promise of action, without actually having to do anything or get any results. So, the fact that I still pay ATM fees doesn't mean Jim broke his promise - after all, he did talk to the banks. Maybe his "talk" was just Jim sipping martinis with them and making fun of the mustached socialist but it's still "promise made, promise kept".

No doubt buoyed by this, when Flaherty noticed that Canadians (and by "Canadians" I mean "Whitby-Oshawa residents") didn't really like paying $1.50 a litre for gas, was his response to revert to an old 2004 promise to actually lower gas prices? Nope. Instead, he promised to "look for ways to cut prices". Will Jim find something on this scavenger hunt? Likely not, but at
least Flaherty is showing inaction action on the issue by "looking".

It's become almost predictable. So, when Telus and Bell announced they would be charging for incoming text messages this spring, you could see how the whole thing would wind up unfolding:

Step 1: Jack Layton is outraged!

Step 2: Jim Prentice demands explanation

Step 3: Explanation is given to Jim. Jim nods approvingly.

Step 4: Telus and Bell go ahead with plan to raise fees for incoming texts

Ta Da!


So good on the Tories for moving past that silly phase they when were a new party and felt compelled to make real promises and deliver on them. Instead, I look forward to even more listening, talking, demanding explanations, exploring, looking, contemplating, considering, inquiring, sabre rattling, investigating (but not formal investigations - they've learned their lesson), meeting with, questioning, and studying.

I for one welcome this new era of inaction action!

The Provincial Final

On the federal side, the 1988 election has earned the title of Canada's Biggest Federal election, collecting 64% of the vote against the 57/58 Diefenbaker wins in the final.

So the time has come to crown Canada's Biggest Provincial Election. It has come down to the top 2 seeds - 1976 Quebec and 1944 Saskatchewan. Voting is now open until 10 pm on Wednesday night. Next week, the provincial and federal winners will go head-to-head for the overall title of Canada's biggest election.

(2) 1944 Saskatchewan v.s. (1) 1976 Quebec

The Case for 1944: Tommy Douglas' win was an absolute rout, blowing out the governing Liberals and establishing a 20 year CCF dynasty that would change Saskatchewan forever. The win was the first ever for a socialist party in North America, raising eyebrows across the continent.

The election's impact on Canada as a whole cannot the under-estimated either. While the CCF's success in Saskatchewan never materialized into a federal NDP win, three other provinces have since elected CCF/NDP governments and 1944 no doubt paved the way for that. Many of Douglas' policies, most notably health care, would be later adopted by the federal Liberals and strong CCF performances like these two elections scared Mackenzie King to the left on many issues. For better or worse, much of Canada's current welfare state can be traced back to 1944's shocker on the Prairies.

The Case for 1976: It's rare that an election stuns a province, never mind a country but 1976 did just that, drawing headlines around the world. Given the rise of the PQ, the corruption scandals surrounding Bourassa, and the polls that showed Levesque marching to a win, the result should not have been surprising, but it still was.

As for the consequences, we all know them. Bill 101 came into being, and the exodus of head offices out of Montreal began. Two referendums and what seemed like a dozen unity crises came and went. And yet, the country still stands. So while the 1976 Quebec election did not destroy Canada, it certainly changed it forever.

Which Election Was Bigger?
(1) 1976 Quebec (Rene Levesque and the PQ win)
(2) 1944 Saskatchewan (Tommy Douglas and the CCF win)
See Results

And Then There Were Four

Yet another by election has been called - this one for September 22nd in Don Valley West, to fill John Godfrey's seat.

For past vote results and demographics, Pundits Guide is the place to go. Last time around, the Liberals took it by a 53-33 margin - I'd expect that gap to narrow a bit for this one.

And while the NDP won't win, they are putting up a candidate with an impressive resume.

That's More Like It

Nomination Watch

David Orchard beats out Joan Beatty for the Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River Liberal nomination.

V is for Victory

Back in May, I posted about the Liberal Party's Victory Fund and invited readers to suggest what riding I should donate to. Danielle Takacs wrote up a post in support of Brant, Saskatoon-Humboldt sent me a top ten list, and I got compelling e-mails in support of Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Fredericton, Burlington and a host of others.

So when I noticed the Skyline BBQ for Victory Fund members coming up on Centre Island in Toronto next week, I figured it was time to stop dithering and just make a choice. With the Democrats competitive in states like Virginia, Montana, and Indiana (and Texas?), it seems obvious to me that Dean's 50 state strategy is paying dividends. In Canada, the Conservatives won in 1984 and 2006 when they realized they couldn't write off 75 seats in Quebec every election. Yet, the Liberals gladly write off that many in Western Canada, a region whose political importance keeps growing.

So, between that, and the fact that it's the friggin' Calgary Grit blog, I felt I should pick a Calgary riding. And, as luck would have it, the riding that received the most votes for my donation just happened to be Calgary West. The 5$ a month is a small price to pay for the satisfaction in knowing you're doing something to help defeat Rob Anders so that's where half my direct deposit will be going.

Synchronized Belly Flops

Canada is still medal-less at the Olympics, placing us behind powerhouse nations such as Colombia, Togo, and Tajikistan (which sounds like a made up country to me).

I have yet to figure out how to pin the blame for this on Stephen Harper but, rest assured, I'm sure there are many in the Liberal Party working hard to make that connection.

Nomination Watch

Look who's back - former PM Cabmin and war hawk David Pratt is mulling over a high profile run against John Baird.

Here's the pundits guide breakdown of the riding for anyone curious - it was Baird by 9% in 2006.


UPDATE: Another former Liberal Cabinet Minister considers a run.

The Rock 'em Sock 'em World of Ethics Committee Meetings

Who would have thought that ethics committee meetings would turn out to be the most exciting thing going on in Ottawa this summer? For the lengthy recap, check out Kady O'Malley, as per usual.

A picture recap of the insanity comes from occasional graphic contributor to this blog, Bob Huxtable:

The Federal Final

We now have our final four. On the federal side, a pair of Tory election wins will duke it out - 1988's free trade election is up against the 57/58 fall of the Liberal dynasty. On the provincial side of things, the 1976 Quebec election (a winner with 53% of the vote against 1960 Quebec) will take on the 1944 Saskatchewan election (blowing out 1943 Ontario with 84% of the vote).

Voting is now open on the federal final until 10 pm on Wednesday - next week a provincial champion will be crowned, and then the two will go head-to-head for the title of Canada's Biggest Election.


1957/58 (6) vs. 1988 (1)

Arguments For The Two Elections: Click Here

What If...1988: The problem with writting a good "what if" scenario for the 1988 election is that there are so many plausible outcomes. But let's look at the obvious one: what if the Tories had been reduced to a minority and, having won the referendum on free trade, the Liberals and NDP decided to form a coalition government. The NDP would have had major influence on Canada's economic and foreign policy, NAFTA would never have come into being, and the Meech debate would have taken a bizarre unpredictable twist.

A minority government would likely have set up another election in '90/'91 - on the heels of a Bob Rae win in Ontario could the NDP have formed government federally? Prime Minister Ed Broadbent anyone? Would the Bloc and Reform Party have ever gathered critical mass to become legitimate political players? If not, could the Tories have returned quickly to power and, if so, would it have been under Mulroney's leadership? It seems likely that Chretien would have eventually replaced Turner regardless, but with no second term to give Campbell and Charest cabinet experience, who would have been the heir apparent to Mulroney?

What If...1957: Given that the Liberals were widely expected to win the 1957 election, it's not hard to imagine the King/St.Laurent dynasty being extended. It seems likely that the Grits would not have made good on C.D. Howe's promise to "run St. Laurent stuffed", so that likely would have meant a Lester B. Pearson Prime Ministership three or four years earlier. So the real question is, would Pearson have made the same reforms he did in a minority with a majority or would he have have employed the same cautious, gradual progress the Liberals had become known for over their 22 years in power? I'd suspect the later.

So if '57 hadn't happened in '57, when would it have happened? The Liberal dynasty had to end at some point but one wonders how it would have without a Tory who could campaign like Dief. Another interesting question, related to the provincial side of the bracket, is whether Jean Lesage would have left federal politics in '58 had the Liberals been in power? Would Lesage have stayed in Ottawa to replace Pearson as Prime Minister? Or would it have been Paul Martin senior? And how would all of this affected the goings-on in Quebec? Again, too many questions with very few answers.

Which Election Was Bigger?
(6) 1957/58 (Diefenbaker over St. Laurent, Pearson)
(1) 1988 (Mulroney over Turner, Broadbent)
See Results

Doing Politics Differently

This is a smart idea - get more people signed up and get your existing supporters fired up:

Dear Friend --

Barack Obama is about to make one of the most important decisions of this campaign -- choosing a running mate.

You have helped build this movement from the bottom up, and Barack wants you to be the first to know his choice.

Sign up today to be the first to know:

http://my.barackobama.com/vp

You will receive an email the moment Barack makes his decision, or you can text VP to 62262 to receive a text message on your mobile phone.

Once you've signed up, please forward this email to your friends, family, and coworkers to let them know about this special opportunity.

No other campaign has done this before. You can be part of this important moment.

Be the first to know who Barack selects as his running mate.

Thanks,

David

David Plouffe
Campaign
Manager
Obama for America

Faster, Stronger, Higher

The Olympics kick off today, a time when Canadians join together and show national pride in their new found appreciation of synchronized trampolining. But the lesser known "political olympics" also kick off this week - here's a run-down of some of the key events:


Gymnastics: The Tories were the early favourites in this event, but have decided to boycott all judged sports, claiming a judging conspiracy against them.

The Marathon: The marathon commemorates the run of the soldier Pheidippides from a battlefield at the site of the town of Marathon, Greece, to Athens in 490 B.C. Fun fact - Phheidippides served in the same military unit as John McCain.

Softball: The media lob questions at Barack Obama.

Synchronized Messaging: The Liberal Party tries to keep all their MPs on message. [note: this is actually a "special political olympics" event]

Pole Vault: How high can the federal government's polling budget go? Michael Fortier comes in as the favourite, however this event is set to air at 3 a.m. so it may be difficult for viewers to catch it.

High Dive: Watch over hyped politicians do a belly flop! This field should be wide open after the defending champion, Andre Boisclair, was disqualified for a failed drug test.

Shooting Events: [A Liberal riding president submitted a hilarious joke to me for this one, but it has been removed on advice from my lawyer]

Hurdles: Traditionally designed in such a way where the opposition party would put up hurdles for the Prime Minister to leap over...this year, the event will involve the official opposition threatening to put hurdles on the track.

Ad Wars

Things are heating up down south as John McCain's latest ad brands him as "the original maverick" (and here I thought that was James Garner) and proclaims "we're worse off now than we were four years ago." Serves Americans right for electing a Democrat to the White House in 2004!



This, of course, comes hot on the heels of McCain's "everybody loves my opponent" ad, which has generated this response:

See more funny videos at Funny or Die

And here's the McCain response to Paris' response:

Hilton's video is a good-humored attempt at spoofing the first ad, but representatives for McCain's campaign nevertheless immediately responded to the clip on TMZ.com.

"Sounds like Paris is taking the 'All of the Above' energy approach that John McCain has advocated — both alternatives and drilling," spokesman Tucker Bounds told the gossip site. "Perhaps the reality is that Paris has a more substantive energy plan than Barack Obama."

There are two things I love about this quote by Tucker Bounds (three if you include the name "Tucker Bounds"):

1. The McCain campaign is spinning for a gossip site.

2. They are spinning that Paris and John advocate the same position on energy policy.

"You were the minister of the environment and you tried to be very sexy when you were there"

Ralph Klein guest hosted The House last weekend and it was a memorable appearance (how could Ralph on the CBC be anything but?). Sure, it was cheesy and Ralph's journalist skills seem to have rusted a bit since he left the biz 28 years ago but there were some great moments:

1. A cameo appearance by Mike Harris who quipped "blame it on me, everybody else in Ontario does".

2. Ralph complaining about his pink CBC hat because "I consider pink to be a commie colour".

3. A chummy interview with Ralph's "second favourite Prime Minister" Jean Chretien where the two old hacks reminisce about politics ("we had a big fight you and I") and talk nuclear power, climate change (Ralph is still skeptical about the science), the economy and just about everything else. Jean tossed out the story about Ralph saying he would have run for the Liberals in Calgary had Chretien beat Turner in '84, which certainly would have changed the course of Alberta politics during the 90s.

So, yeah, lots of fun from two political pros who always got along well, even when they were using each other as political straw men.

(hat tip: Dave and Dan)

Provincial Show-Down

In the federal side of the bracket, it will be 1988 versus 1957/58, after the free trade election cruised to a 74% win and Dief's dominance lead to a squeaker of a win (51% to 49%).

So the time has come to select the final showdown on the provincial side. The following four elections ran away with things in round 1 but I'm expecting closer races this time around. It's the battle of Quebec in one semi and a pair of political dynasties born one year apart in the other.


(4) 1960 Quebec vs. (1) 1976 Quebec

The Case for 1960: When political dynasties fall, it's always memorable. And few political dynasties deserved to fall more than the Union Nationale, who had ruled Quebec since World War 2. Under Duplesis, electoral fraud was common, the press was oppressed, and the province resisted modernization, being controlled by the Catholic Church and US business. After Duplesis (and his reformist successor Paul Sauve) died, the stage was set for an 8 seat Jean Lesage win under the Maîtres chez nous slogan.

The win started the quiet revolution - Quebec became more secular, Hydro Quebec come into being, economic and social reforms were passed, and nationalist sentiment bubbled to the surface. The Liberal win also jump started the political career of a young Cabinet Minister by the name of Rene Levesque and, in many ways, set the stage for the 1976 election shocker.

The Case for 1976: It's rare that an election stuns a province, never mind a country but 1976 did just that, drawing headlines around the world. Given the rise of the PQ, the corruption scandals surrounding Bourassa, and the polls that showed Levesque marching to a win, the result should not have been surprising, but it still was.

As for the consequences, we all know them. Bill 101 came into being, and the exodus of head offices out of Montreal began. Two referendums and what seemed like a dozen unity crises came and went. And yet, the country still stands. So while the 1976 Quebec election did not destroy Canada, it certainly changed it forever.

Which Election Was Bigger?
(4) Quebec 1960 (Lesage over Barrette)
(1) Quebec 1976 (Levesque over Bourassa)
See Results

(3) 1943 Ontario vs. (2) 1944 Saskatchewan

The Case for 1943: The 1943 Ontario election was a dog fight, with three parties coming within 5% of each other and the PCs holding on for a 4 seat minority government victory. The Liberals, victims of a Hepburn-King feud, were booted from power, while the surging CCF came up just short.

The resulting 42 years of PC dominance, at a time when the Liberals owned the province federally, has been well documented and certainly changed Ontario's history dramatically. But the real reason this election left a mark was because of what didn't happen - that is, the CCF coming up just short. If you think a CCF government in Saskatchewan changed Canada forever, just imagine the impact one in Canada's largest province would have had...

The Case for 1944: While the previous year's Ontario vote was close, Tommy Douglas' win was an absolute rout, blowing out the governing Liberals and establishing a 20 year CCF dynasty that would change Saskatchewan forever. The win was the first ever for a socialist party in North America, raising eyebrows across the continent.

The election's impact on Canada as a whole cannot the under-estimated either. While the CCF's success in Saskatchewan never materialized into a federal NDP win, three other provinces have since elected CCF/NDP governments and 1944 no doubt paved the way for that. Many of Douglas' policies, most notably health care, would be later adopted by the federal Liberals and strong CCF performances like these two elections scared Mackenzie King to the left on many issues. For better or worse, much of Canada's current welfare state can be traced back to 1944's shocker on the Prairies.

Which Election Was Bigger?
(3) 1943 Ontario (Drew over Nixon)
(2) 1944 Saskatchewan (Douglas over Patterson)
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