Random Musings on the Fall of Democracy

I took in the MacLeans Democracy Roundtable on Wednesday, and thoroughly enjoyed it. There were at least half a dozen ideas and points raised that would make good blog post subjects in their own right, but rather than elaborate on each of them, I'll just throw up a bunch of random musings from the event:

1. Paul Wells described Question Period (the House of Commons one, not the CTV one) as "the malignant growth on our democracy" or something of the sort. And it does seem that QP is one of the most obvious examples of the problems in our system. So, on that count, I completely like Wells' suggestion of extending question and answer time to 45 seconds (why not a minute?), and only requiring the PM to be there one day a week.

2. It was pointed out that the only time our leaders have gone on TV in the past decade has been to explain why they should be allowed to keep governing. I like the idea of taking a page from the US and having the Prime Minister go on prime time more often to discuss the issues of the day. I know, I know, whenever you say "taking a page from the US", it means the idea won't go anywhere in Canada. And some people will be annoyed that it might bump "Dancing with the Stars" every now and then. But if Canadians saw our leaders talking about serious issues every now and then, maybe they'd be inclined to take them a bit more seriously.

3. Although those ideas are great, Wells did toss out one lead balloon - having caucus pick their leader and review their leadership. Eddie Goldenberg quite rightly pointed out that maybe having the Liberal leader always picked by Ontario MPs isn't the best thing for a national party, and I shudder to think of the behind the scenes horse trading that would go on for support. But, most of all, if you want to engage Canadians in the democratic process, you need to give them more of a say, not less of one. And giving average Canadians the right to buy a membership and vote for party leaders is a way to get them engaged in the democratic process...I really fail to see the benefit of taking that away from them.

4. John Ralston Saul tended to meander off into irrelevant rambling at least 80% of the time. But he did bring up two very valid points. First, that the problem with our debate is one of content, not tone. If politicians debated ideas, there'd be nothing wrong with raucus debate. Secondly, that young people are active in a wide range of organizations - but they need to actually join political parties and run for office so as to change our political system from within.

5. There was general consensus the media has done a bad job covering politics over the past few years...even by the media on the stage.

6. There is no problem too big or too small that Ed Broadbent doesn't believe can be solved by either tax increases or proportional representation. I'm not dead-set against PR, but I do take issue with Ed chastising Liberals and Conservatives for not leading the charge for PR. The fact is, two Liberal Premiers held referendums on the topic and let the people decide. Broadbent feels they didn't push harder because the current system benefits them. Which is true. But you also have to acknowledge that one of the reasons NDP and Green supporters are so keen on PR is that it's a system that would hugely benefit their parties. So everyone is thinking a little bit about their own best interests and I think McGuinty and Campbell deserve credit for facilitating the debate on a topic that could ultimately hurt them.

Biggest Election: It's 88

With 56% of the vote, the 1988 Federal Election has been crowned Canada's biggest by Calgary Grit readers, knocking off Tommy Douglas' 1944 Saskatchewan win in the final.

With a federal election about to start up, it was probably appropriate to look back at some of the big elections from the past. And there are certainly lessons all parties can learn from '88, as there are from all past elections.

Without a doubt, 1988 was Canada's most exciting election. There was a real policy debate, an unfolding national unity crisis, great ads, a mid-campaign coup attempt, an exhilarating debate, a real three-party race, and a see-saw campaign that was in doubt until the end. And, for better or worse, Mulroney's second term would shape Canadian politics for the next 20 years thanks to the Meech collapse, the Tory collapse, the rise of Reform and Bloc, free trade, and the GST. So I don't think this election won just because it was more familiar to voters (after all, my Greatest PM contest featured a Laurier-MacDonald final) - I think it truly is a deserving winner.

A big thanks to everyone who voted, and to John Duffy for seeding the elections. And now, the attention of this blog can turn squarely to the present and the next "big" election we're about to embark on. It certainly doesn't appear to have the makings of a historic one but, then again, the element of surprise is why a lot of the elections in this contest can truly be called "historic".


Final Vote
Provincial Final
Federal Final
Provincial Semis
Federal Semis
Provincial Quarters
Federal Quarters

The Federal Final

We now have our final four. On the federal side, a pair of Tory election wins will duke it out - 1988's free trade election is up against the 57/58 fall of the Liberal dynasty. On the provincial side of things, the 1976 Quebec election (a winner with 53% of the vote against 1960 Quebec) will take on the 1944 Saskatchewan election (blowing out 1943 Ontario with 84% of the vote).

Voting is now open on the federal final until 10 pm on Wednesday - next week a provincial champion will be crowned, and then the two will go head-to-head for the title of Canada's Biggest Election.


1957/58 (6) vs. 1988 (1)

Arguments For The Two Elections: Click Here

What If...1988: The problem with writting a good "what if" scenario for the 1988 election is that there are so many plausible outcomes. But let's look at the obvious one: what if the Tories had been reduced to a minority and, having won the referendum on free trade, the Liberals and NDP decided to form a coalition government. The NDP would have had major influence on Canada's economic and foreign policy, NAFTA would never have come into being, and the Meech debate would have taken a bizarre unpredictable twist.

A minority government would likely have set up another election in '90/'91 - on the heels of a Bob Rae win in Ontario could the NDP have formed government federally? Prime Minister Ed Broadbent anyone? Would the Bloc and Reform Party have ever gathered critical mass to become legitimate political players? If not, could the Tories have returned quickly to power and, if so, would it have been under Mulroney's leadership? It seems likely that Chretien would have eventually replaced Turner regardless, but with no second term to give Campbell and Charest cabinet experience, who would have been the heir apparent to Mulroney?

What If...1957: Given that the Liberals were widely expected to win the 1957 election, it's not hard to imagine the King/St.Laurent dynasty being extended. It seems likely that the Grits would not have made good on C.D. Howe's promise to "run St. Laurent stuffed", so that likely would have meant a Lester B. Pearson Prime Ministership three or four years earlier. So the real question is, would Pearson have made the same reforms he did in a minority with a majority or would he have have employed the same cautious, gradual progress the Liberals had become known for over their 22 years in power? I'd suspect the later.

So if '57 hadn't happened in '57, when would it have happened? The Liberal dynasty had to end at some point but one wonders how it would have without a Tory who could campaign like Dief. Another interesting question, related to the provincial side of the bracket, is whether Jean Lesage would have left federal politics in '58 had the Liberals been in power? Would Lesage have stayed in Ottawa to replace Pearson as Prime Minister? Or would it have been Paul Martin senior? And how would all of this affected the goings-on in Quebec? Again, too many questions with very few answers.

Which Election Was Bigger?
(6) 1957/58 (Diefenbaker over St. Laurent, Pearson)
(1) 1988 (Mulroney over Turner, Broadbent)
See Results