Super Weekend
It's finally here. And I'm not ashamed to admit I'm really looking forward to seeing the results as they roll in. For anyone looking for last minute leadership reading, I've updated my Race for Stornoway page - it's got my profiles, Globe profiles, news stories, links, and anything else I thought was worthy of stealing from Cerberus' page.
And since all my work on first ballot projections will be moot in 72 hours time, I figured I'd include one last update for my projections. I've added an ever so small weighting of existing member support based on the form 6 count at Democratic Space (didn't want to weight it too heavily since there's not an even representation from all provinces and different campaigns had different strategies on the number to fill out). My spreadsheet is online here. I'll skip the rest of the methodology spiel and give the predictions my formula produces:
Ignatieff 26.7%
Rae 17.9%
Kennedy 17.7%
Dion 14.6%
Volpe 7.8%
Dryden 7.2%
Brison 6.3%
Findlay 1.9%
I'd personally put Volpe a little lower and Martha a little higher but, apart from that, I'm reasonably confident that the picture which emerges after this weekend will look something like the above.
And, just for fun, here's my best guess on Alberta:
Kennedy 26%
Ignatieff 24%
Dion 16%
Rae 12%
Volpe 8%
Brison 7%
Findlay 3%
Dryden 2%
Uncommitted 2%
And since all my work on first ballot projections will be moot in 72 hours time, I figured I'd include one last update for my projections. I've added an ever so small weighting of existing member support based on the form 6 count at Democratic Space (didn't want to weight it too heavily since there's not an even representation from all provinces and different campaigns had different strategies on the number to fill out). My spreadsheet is online here. I'll skip the rest of the methodology spiel and give the predictions my formula produces:
Ignatieff 26.7%
Rae 17.9%
Kennedy 17.7%
Dion 14.6%
Volpe 7.8%
Dryden 7.2%
Brison 6.3%
Findlay 1.9%
I'd personally put Volpe a little lower and Martha a little higher but, apart from that, I'm reasonably confident that the picture which emerges after this weekend will look something like the above.
And, just for fun, here's my best guess on Alberta:
Kennedy 26%
Ignatieff 24%
Dion 16%
Rae 12%
Volpe 8%
Brison 7%
Findlay 3%
Dryden 2%
Uncommitted 2%
posted by calgarygrit at
3:34 a.m.
11 Comments:
Maybe I am setting myself up to look the fool but I think Kennedy will be in second and way ahead of Rae. I see there being a comparable amount of space between Ignatieff/Kennedy and Kennedy/Rae.
I also think there is a 50-50 shot Rae will finish fourth in these meetings.
By
nbpolitico, at 10:33 a.m.
My completely unscientific guesstimates:
Ignatieff 30.5% (I think we're all a little too pesimistic on him.)
Rae 19.1% (All about the Big Mo..)
Kennedy 16.4% (Good organization, but lost the potential for convention growth to Rae.)
Dion 11.9% (Weak organization, but setting up as a potential Clark '76)
Volpe 7.2% (Ugh. How many pieces of silver is this worth?)
Dryden 6.6% (Has to be disheartening for Dryden to finish below 10%...Watching "Canada-Russia '72", I wondered if if would be good for an additional vote or two for the former goalie.)
Brison 6.4% (This former Brison loyalist both crys and applaudes at this low level of support. Had the man shown a decade's worth of patience, I have little doubt he could have strongly contended for the leadership of the country.
Had he stayed Tory. But that's another post for another day.)
Findlay 1.9% (How many Liberals wished this week that Martha had defeated Belinda in '04?)
By
The Hack, at 11:09 a.m.
I think the hack has the most likely numbers re Kennedy and Rae. The big loser in this is Brison who will now look like one of those guys who run for everything the next time he throws his hat in the ring.
By
nuna d. above, at 11:45 a.m.
Yes NB you are setting yourself up to be a fool.
Nuna yes two time loser is bad. The same moniker will be around Kennedy's neck.
By
S.K., at 12:00 p.m.
Let's hope that Martha surprises and does better than forecast.
It won't reflect well on the party if she finishes convincingly last.
By
Down & Out in L A, at 12:29 p.m.
Have a great time, CG. I still think you guys should do a one-person, one-vote thing, but I can definitely see the appeal to this kind of excitement.
By
Idealistic Pragmatist, at 2:48 p.m.
I wonder if Volpe will be effected by being fined $20k by the party and having his signups go under extra scruinty in Quebec.
By
nbpolitico, at 4:49 p.m.
behind Volpe?
By
Mark, at 2:24 a.m.
With 96/465 reporting it appears that your numbers are nearly dead on CG.
Well done. It'll be interesting to see if the trend holds.
Syncro
By
syncrodox, at 12:09 p.m.
Is there a large amount of kennedy delegates that havent been counted yet? So far Kennedy's numbers are pretty low compared to predictions made. I personally think he'll stay at around 15% max.
By
Kevrichard, at 11:21 p.m.
If you really want to renew the Liberal Party, you could dump the hacks and start operating on principle.
By
Neo Conservative, at 2:32 p.m.
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