Friday, September 29, 2006

Super Weekend

It's finally here. And I'm not ashamed to admit I'm really looking forward to seeing the results as they roll in. For anyone looking for last minute leadership reading, I've updated my Race for Stornoway page - it's got my profiles, Globe profiles, news stories, links, and anything else I thought was worthy of stealing from Cerberus' page.

And since all my work on first ballot projections will be moot in 72 hours time, I figured I'd include one last update for my projections. I've added an ever so small weighting of existing member support based on the form 6 count at Democratic Space (didn't want to weight it too heavily since there's not an even representation from all provinces and different campaigns had different strategies on the number to fill out). My spreadsheet is online here. I'll skip the rest of the methodology spiel and give the predictions my formula produces:

Ignatieff 26.7%
Rae 17.9%
Kennedy 17.7%
Dion 14.6%
Volpe 7.8%
Dryden 7.2%
Brison 6.3%
Findlay 1.9%

I'd personally put Volpe a little lower and Martha a little higher but, apart from that, I'm reasonably confident that the picture which emerges after this weekend will look something like the above.

And, just for fun, here's my best guess on Alberta:

Kennedy 26%
Ignatieff 24%
Dion 16%
Rae 12%
Volpe 8%
Brison 7%
Findlay 3%
Dryden 2%
Uncommitted 2%


  • Maybe I am setting myself up to look the fool but I think Kennedy will be in second and way ahead of Rae. I see there being a comparable amount of space between Ignatieff/Kennedy and Kennedy/Rae.

    I also think there is a 50-50 shot Rae will finish fourth in these meetings.

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 10:33 a.m.  

  • Thanks for the stats update. I hope that Kennedy does place second. He's the one I want to win.

    Despite all the potential excitement of knocking off Harper, we realistically face a 2 election strategy. And given that, Kennedy is the guy to support. He will rebuild the party and get us back into government with the support of the Canadian people.

    By Blogger hp, at 11:02 a.m.  

  • My completely unscientific guesstimates:

    Ignatieff 30.5% (I think we're all a little too pesimistic on him.)

    Rae 19.1% (All about the Big Mo..)

    Kennedy 16.4% (Good organization, but lost the potential for convention growth to Rae.)

    Dion 11.9% (Weak organization, but setting up as a potential Clark '76)

    Volpe 7.2% (Ugh. How many pieces of silver is this worth?)

    Dryden 6.6% (Has to be disheartening for Dryden to finish below 10%...Watching "Canada-Russia '72", I wondered if if would be good for an additional vote or two for the former goalie.)

    Brison 6.4% (This former Brison loyalist both crys and applaudes at this low level of support. Had the man shown a decade's worth of patience, I have little doubt he could have strongly contended for the leadership of the country.

    Had he stayed Tory. But that's another post for another day.)

    Findlay 1.9% (How many Liberals wished this week that Martha had defeated Belinda in '04?)

    By Blogger The Hack, at 11:09 a.m.  

  • I think the hack has the most likely numbers re Kennedy and Rae. The big loser in this is Brison who will now look like one of those guys who run for everything the next time he throws his hat in the ring.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 11:45 a.m.  

  • Yes NB you are setting yourself up to be a fool.

    Nuna yes two time loser is bad. The same moniker will be around Kennedy's neck.

    By Blogger s.b., at 12:00 p.m.  

  • Let's hope that Martha surprises and does better than forecast.

    It won't reflect well on the party if she finishes convincingly last.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 12:29 p.m.  

  • hack, I can't agree with you more about Brison.

    He has some good ideas and real potential, but now he just looks desparate to me. He's exactly the type of politician who runs for everything and looses evertime.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm glad that we have him, cause we needed the representation out east, but he's only ever going to be a mid level cabinet player. And I can't help but think that his career would have been better off (including achieving his many ideas) had he stayed with the Tories.

    By Blogger hp, at 1:54 p.m.  

  • Have a great time, CG. I still think you guys should do a one-person, one-vote thing, but I can definitely see the appeal to this kind of excitement.

    By Blogger Idealistic Pragmatist, at 2:48 p.m.  

  • I wonder if Volpe will be effected by being fined $20k by the party and having his signups go under extra scruinty in Quebec.

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 4:49 p.m.  

  • behind Volpe?

    By Blogger Mark, at 2:24 a.m.  

  • With 96/465 reporting it appears that your numbers are nearly dead on CG.

    Well done. It'll be interesting to see if the trend holds.


    By Blogger syncrodox, at 12:09 p.m.  

  • Martha Hall Findlay is running fifth in Ontario, ahead of Dryden, Brison and Volpe, Hopefully this will inspire women in other provinces to vote for her today.

    Since you're in Alberta, can you tell us about the four vacancies?

    The three ridings reporting have 42 delegates, but they only reported the first 38. Mount Royal College club gets another 4, which would make 46, but the total reported is only 42. This means another four spots have been earned by "Under-Represented Leadership Contestants" who can fill these spots by appointment later.

    As the Liberal website states "Significant variance may occur as delegate spots "earned" by candidates are filled."

    So which candidates have the right to fill those four vacancies?

    As for the results so far, certainly bad news for Rae, running behind Dion across Canada. Rae is strong only in BC and Newfoundland, and is a close third in Quebec. He has only two delegates out of 71 in Nova Scotia, and only two of 42 in Alberta.

    By Blogger Wilf Day, at 12:57 p.m.  

  • Three afternoon results from Alberta are just in: 42 more delegates (but there are 43 more, someone has added a correction from yesterday). I think two of them are Calgary ridings, can't find the third one.

    They are quite different from the earlier Alberta ones: Ignatieff 12, Kennedy 11, Volpe 7, Rae 6, Dion 5, Dryden 1, Hall Findlay 1.

    Calgary, as we know, is different. Ignatieff and Volpe???

    (And Martha picks up her first non-Ontario delegate.) :)

    By Blogger Wilf Day, at 5:02 p.m.  

  • Is there a large amount of kennedy delegates that havent been counted yet? So far Kennedy's numbers are pretty low compared to predictions made. I personally think he'll stay at around 15% max.

    By Blogger Height Impaired, at 11:21 p.m.  

  • If you really want to renew the Liberal Party, you could dump the hacks and start operating on principle.

    By Blogger Neo Conservative, at 2:32 p.m.  

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