And since all my work on first ballot projections will be moot in 72 hours time, I figured I'd include one last update for my projections. I've added an ever so small weighting of existing member support based on the form 6 count at Democratic Space (didn't want to weight it too heavily since there's not an even representation from all provinces and different campaigns had different strategies on the number to fill out). My spreadsheet is online here. I'll skip the rest of the methodology spiel and give the predictions my formula produces:
I'd personally put Volpe a little lower and Martha a little higher but, apart from that, I'm reasonably confident that the picture which emerges after this weekend will look something like the above.
And, just for fun, here's my best guess on Alberta: