Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Annual Frank McKenna Won't Run Post: 2008 Edition

But I'm sure this won't stop the rumours:

OTTAWA — Frank McKenna announced today that he will not be a candidate for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.

“Although I have been deeply moved by expressions of support for me from across the country, I have not been persuaded to change my long-standing resolve to exit public life for good. My only regret is that I cannot honour the expectations of friends and supporters who have shown enormous loyalty to me,” the former New Brunswick premier said in a statement.

“The challenge of winning the leadership, restoring the health of the Liberal Party and returning a Liberal majority government requires a longer time commitment than I am prepared to make. There will be an ample number of well-qualified candidates to do this important work.”

So, for those keeping track, that leaves us with:

Dominic LeBlanc

Michael Ignatieff
Bob Rae

Definitely, Maybe
John Manley
Ruby Dhalla
Denis Coderre
Martin Cauchon
David McGuinty
Ujjal Dosanjh
Gerard Kennedy
Martha Hall Findlay
Ralph Goodale

Long Shots
Carolyn Bennett
Ken Dryden
Joe Volpe
David Orchard
Belinda Stronach

Taking a Pass
Scott Brison
Justin Trudeau
Frank McKenna
Dalton McGuinty
Carole Taylor

If you have any other tips, feel free to pass them on, as I'll be updating this list fairly frequently.



    Copied from my comment left on warrenkinsella.com.


    The one person who I thought would be able to take support from both the Iggy and Rae leadership campaigns, is not in it.

    As a result, with the Iggy and Rae teams from the last leadership campaign more or less intact, and the agreement made by Iggy and Rae that they will support one another when it is necessary, there is no conceivable way that anyone other than Iggy or Rae will win this thing.

    Ballot 3 in December 2006:

    Dion 1,782
    Iggy 1,660
    Rae 1,375

    Iggy + Rae = 3,035 or 63%

    Honestly, does anyone believe their candidate can get more than 50% on the final ballot now.

    The other candidates will split the remaining 37%. Yes, McGuinty or LeBlanc or Manley, if they did not split up the remaining 37% could conceivably be on top on the first ballot. But there is no growth after that if Iggy and Rae have an agreed upon alliance.

    How much innuendo and bad press my guy GK gets for supporting Dion, it was really Rae`s decision to free up his delegates that put Dion over the top. GK support allowed Dion to eliminate Rae, but it was Rae`s delegates, who went overwhelmingly to Dion rather than Iggy, that allowed Dion to become leader of the Liberal Party.

    If 2006 plays itself out again, and there is no reason that anyone left (including McGuinty, Manley, LeBlanc, GK) could dent the support Iggy and Rae have from the last convention, it is all over.

    The blogger who suggested we should let caucus determine the leader MAY BE RIGHT, and save the Liberals millions in dollars and we could start immediately preparing to defeat the Conservatives and their minority government.


    By Blogger MississaugaPeter, at 7:26 PM  

  • Definitely an accomplished man, and a very capable leader. Still I think the Liberal Party needs to be looking into the future instead of its past for strong leadership. I honour the man and would be intrested in his ideas on a good leader for the party, but I'm glad he has bowed out to let a new generation take the helm.

    I'm looking for ideas candidates to emerge. I want a Liberal Party that has an identifiable philosophy in the public's eyes. No more "party of government." No more fights about being a Martinite or Chretienite.

    I think people like LeBlanc, McGuinty (the brother), and Dhalla could make this an unpredictable race. And frankly, I think LeBlanc announcing has creating enough buzz that he blunted the inevitability of Iggy or Rae leadership.

    Should be fun to watch the race develop with new names and new ideas for a stronger Liberal Party.

    By Anonymous Rob C, at 8:26 PM  

  • mississauga - I dunno. If Iggy and Rae were third in a three person race last time, I'm not sure that neccesarily means they're unbeatable this time.

    It's not like Kennedy and Dion were bigger names than LeBlanc and Manley.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:42 PM  

  • 1. Iggy and Rae haven't exactly gained in popularity since 2006. Ignatieff in particular has been a disloyal servant of the Liberal party.

    2. Iggy + Rae = 63 % is misleading. Why? Rae's supporters would have gone to Dion over Iggy (as they did) and Iggy's supporters about evenly for Dion and Rae. An endorsement might swing some of them, but it would still have probably gone for Dion.

    3. The calculus is different this time.




    central<--->decentral (Leblanc is a guess here)

    So, if Iggy gets knocked off, Manley is closer ideologically, while Leblanc is closer to Rae ideologically. On federal provincial issues, Iggy is far from the other three, and his support would likely split three ways.

    If Rae were knocked off his supporters would be closer on federal-provincial issues to Leblanc or Manley, and closer in ideology to Leblanc.

    Of course that might change, but if Iggy and Rae push for the same turf, they will win fewer delegates collectively. I suspect they plan to specialize in this way (and also to target different regions of the country).

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 10:04 PM  

  • Yes, but this poll suggests 58% of voters don't want either of Rae or Ignatieff.


    By Blogger James Curran, at 11:20 PM  

  • I think you can safely remove all those who hail from Québec. After three party leaders from Québec in a row, there's no way any Quebecker will be elected leader -- after Dion, it'll probably a quarter of a century before someone from la belle province will get to steer the Liberal ship (if it still exists then).

    By Anonymous Werner Patels, at 2:28 AM  

  • I was a Rae delegate who, after much deliberation, moved to Ignatieff (but was not disappointed that Dion won)... There's absolutely no way that, in a similar scenario, I would do exactly the same thing twice. Nor would I follow my first choice without having serious counsel. Once we know who's in the running, and after there's been an opportunity to parse through the various visions, then I may tell you what I might do. I imagine it's a similar story with many of those who backed Iggy or Rae last time, too.

    By Blogger burlivespipe, at 3:14 AM  

  • Amen Burl. In fact, the two of the top contenders should really review their intent to run. They should be doing some internal polling amongst Liberal members.

    By Blogger James Curran, at 8:00 AM  

  • Belinda Stronach has left politics - she won't be on the list.

    By Blogger RuralSandi, at 8:40 AM  

  • Probably worth mentioning that Louise Arbour is also a definite no.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:03 AM  

  • Wouldn't it be great if you could all get behind David Orchard?

    He is a fantastic anti free trader and a westerner to boot!

    By Anonymous D. Mitchell, at 10:39 AM  

  • David Orchard is a longshot to run. No one's mentioned Garth Turner but there's another longshot.

    And every time you put together a list of potential Liberal leadership candidates, you have to include Sheila Copps as at least a maybe. That's a rule. I don't make them.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 10:51 AM  

  • If Bob Rae is the next leader, Liberals can expect another round in opposition.

    the next leader has to be someone from OUTSIDE the current federal political process.

    it only took Harper XX months........

    By Blogger art, at 10:57 AM  

  • or don't care


    By Blogger Fred, at 1:46 PM  

  • werner,

    I don't count Martin as being "from Quebec". He is an English Canadian who grew up in English Canada that speaks English as his first and most fluent language (then again, my french Canadian dad pronounces Martin as if it were French).

    What is more, Martin hails from the Turner-Martin-Ignatieff wing of the party, rather than the Trudeau-Chretien-Dion wing.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 1:53 PM  

  • Bring back Paul Martin - he is still the cream of this crop.

    By Blogger Ken Chapman, at 2:49 PM  

  • What about Brian Tobin!

    By Blogger hatrock, at 4:44 PM  

  • "Bring back Paul Martin - he is still the cream of this crop."

    He is 70 years old. Add on 2 years in opposition and you've got John McCain (who even has similar speaking patterns to Martin - both speak from the back of their mouths, and have "eshes" instead of s's). Plus, McCain endured 5 years of torture as a POW of the Viet cong, while Martin endured 10 as Chretien's finance minister.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 11:04 PM  

  • Has anyone else heard that Bob Rae may not run? I've heard this from people in Alberta and the Maritimes, saying that some of his '06 people think he won't go and are moving to other camps. Also in Quebec, Francois Rochette went to Ignatieff for apparently the same reasons.

    By Blogger M-C, at 7:28 PM  

  • I heard that too. Apparently, some key provincial organizers out east (ie: Newfoundland, N.S.), and West, that Rae is not even a definite. There was supposed to be some kind of announcement this week, but it's been radio silence.

    Anyone else hear the same?

    By Anonymous Richard L., at 11:27 PM  

  • Valpy this morning seems to agree that Rae is having doubts: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081030.wliberals31/BNStory/politics/home

    By Blogger M-C, at 1:35 PM  

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