Ridings to Watch - Atlantic Canada

I've already profiled close races in BC, Alberta, and the Prairies. Today, a look at some of the ridings in Atlantic Canada to watch on election night.

With small poll sample sizes in the Atlantic Provinces, it's hard to get a sense of what will happen on election night. Moreover, Atlantic provinces don't always follow the national trends.

So feel free to share any on the ground intel you have in the comments section.


Newfoundland

The ABC campaign is no more, with Premier Kathy Dunderdale endorsing the Conservatives. Dunderdale's influence is certainly less than Williams', but the Tories could take back Avalon, where Senator Fabian Manning is running for them. Liberal Siobhan Coady could also be in tough against the NDP in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.


PEI

The Liberals would love to win back Egmont from Gail Shea, with the Tories targeting Wayne Easter in Malpeque. Charlottetown could also be in play, due to Shawn Murphy's retirement.


Nova Scotia

My projection model gives the NDP a good chance to grab Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and Halifax West from the Liberals. The orange wave could also claim Tory incumbent Gerald Keddy in South Shore-St. Margaret's.


New Brunswick

Dominic Leblanc should be safe, but there's an outside chance Brian Murphy or Jean-Claude D'Amours could fall if the Liberal vote collapses. At the same time, Miramichi or Saint John could flip Liberal if things break their way.

Cabinet Speculation

Tomorrow is Cabinet Day and, while it doesn’t figure to be as exciting as Harper’s first Cabinet (Floor crossers! Senators!), there’s still some intrigue surrounding it. With Flaherty locked in to Finance, the biggest mystery is who will take over the revolving door at Foreign Affairs. When I first drafted this post yesterday, I was thinking Stock would get the job, but the latest rumours have Lawrence Cannon winding up there. Not a bad call - Cannon hasn't exactly stood out in Transport but "not standing out" is about as good as it gets for this Cabinet.

So if Cannon goes there, that leaves his old portfolio open, along with Monty’s, Fortier’s, and Hearn’s. I’m also going to guess that Gordon O’Connor and Canada’s next top comic Gerry Ritz get shown the door. Josee Verner is likely done in culture, given that that portfolio cost Harper his majority. I'm not sure that anyone else needs to be moved but a few others certainly will be, in order to fill the empty positions.

As for new blood? Well, given where they’re from, and given the lack of women in high profile Cabinet positions, you have to figure Nunavut’s Leona Aglukkaq and PEI’s Gail Shea are locks. Lisa Raitt and Lois Brown probably stand good chances as well since Harper will want to reward Ontario – of course, you have to figure 905 victors Peter Kent and Bob Dechert are also on that short list. My gut says that the Ontario women have the inside track - bringing four new female MPs into Cabinet might be a more tangible way to win over women voters than, say, this.

And, with Fortier gone, Harper will need to find another Quebecer. Maxime Bernier anyone?

For more in depth speculation, David Akin has a run down here. And be sure to scan Hacks & Wonks for a series of posts on the subject.