Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Cabinet Speculation

Tomorrow is Cabinet Day and, while it doesn’t figure to be as exciting as Harper’s first Cabinet (Floor crossers! Senators!), there’s still some intrigue surrounding it. With Flaherty locked in to Finance, the biggest mystery is who will take over the revolving door at Foreign Affairs. When I first drafted this post yesterday, I was thinking Stock would get the job, but the latest rumours have Lawrence Cannon winding up there. Not a bad call - Cannon hasn't exactly stood out in Transport but "not standing out" is about as good as it gets for this Cabinet.

So if Cannon goes there, that leaves his old portfolio open, along with Monty’s, Fortier’s, and Hearn’s. I’m also going to guess that Gordon O’Connor and Canada’s next top comic Gerry Ritz get shown the door. Josee Verner is likely done in culture, given that that portfolio cost Harper his majority. I'm not sure that anyone else needs to be moved but a few others certainly will be, in order to fill the empty positions.

As for new blood? Well, given where they’re from, and given the lack of women in high profile Cabinet positions, you have to figure Nunavut’s Leona Aglukkaq and PEI’s Gail Shea are locks. Lisa Raitt and Lois Brown probably stand good chances as well since Harper will want to reward Ontario – of course, you have to figure 905 victors Peter Kent and Bob Dechert are also on that short list. My gut says that the Ontario women have the inside track - bringing four new female MPs into Cabinet might be a more tangible way to win over women voters than, say, this.

And, with Fortier gone, Harper will need to find another Quebecer. Maxime Bernier anyone?

For more in depth speculation, David Akin has a run down
here. And be sure to scan Hacks & Wonks for a series of posts on the subject.

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3 Comments:

  • You forgot about John Weston in West Vancouver. Emerson is gone and there just so happens to be a new Conservative MP who speaks fluent mandarin and was recruited on the basis of his being a potentially very strong cabmin in a Harper gov't.

    By Blogger Michael, at 8:13 PM  

  • Michael,

    James Moore as Heritage strengthens Harper's power in the Lower Mainland.

    There is a possibility of Alice Wong being in International Development as Bev Oda gets demoted or dropped completely.

    By Blogger Mushroom, at 9:49 PM  

  • Anders for External Affairs! You know you want that man representing us.

    Chuckles aside, speculation in New Brunswick sees us being rewarded for adding +3 Tory seats by being given a second cabinet post. Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal) has been talked about in local papers as getting an "Hon." today.

    By Blogger Rob, at 7:29 AM  

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