Gary Mar is the Man

After Saturday's first round of voting, it seems all but certain that Gary Mar will be the next Premier of Alberta:

Gary Mar: 24195 (41%)
Alison Redford: 11129 (19%)
Doug Horner: 8635 (15%)
Ted Morton: 6962 (12%)
Rick Orman: 6005 (10%)
Doug Griffiths: 2435 (4%)

Yes, Ed Stelmach turned 15% on the first ballot into a win in 2006, but those were very different times. The frontrunner had received just 30% after a lackluster campaign. Voters were looking for a third way in what had become a polarized Dinning-Morton feud. The 4th, 5th, and 6th place candidates all threw their support behind Stelmach.

Sure, Mar's supporters could become complacent. But the also-rans have all seen which way the wind is blowing, and Alison Redford would need to triple her vote to take it. Only something truly remarkable can prevent Mar from becoming the 5th Premier in Alberta's Tory dynasty.

So how did this come about?

The most surprising number in round one is not Mar's total, but Morton's. Morton received 26,000 votes in the first round in 2006 and 41,000 in the final. Since then, Morton beefed up his resume with a stint as Finance Minister. Yet there he was, unable to rally even a third of his former supporters.

Morton blamed the harvest, but the reality is most people who were supportin' Morton in 2006 have long since migrated to the Wildrose Alliance. I don't think Morton will follow them, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the 62 year old professor hang up his spurs before the next election. Maybe him and Tom Flanagan can do a weekly podcast together, or something.


ROUND 1 BY THE NUMBERS

For pretty maps, mosey over to labradore or Daveberta. It was interesting to see Mar sweep Edmonton, given he's a Calgary boy.

Some will no doubt chalk up Mar's win to his edge in establishment support - after all, he had endorsements from 26 MLAs and some guy named Ralph Klein. There's some indication this paid off - Mar received 54% of the vote in ridings where he was backed by the local MLA, compared to 35% elsewhere.

Which sounds impressive until you consider that Ted Morton's support was 14-points higher in ridings where he was endorsed (24% vs. 10%) and Doug Horner's was 38-points higher (46% vs. 8%)! Yes, in a lot of cases, MLAs endorsed candidates they knew were popular, but Mar's team still delivered in ridings where the local establishment was working against him.

For those curious, here are the MLAs who were most effective at boosting the support for their candidate of choice (based on how much the candidate exceeded their province-wide support in the riding):

1. Ray Danyluk (Horner) +67%
2. Frank Oberle (Horner) +54%
3. Ken Kowalski (Horner) + 50%
4. Hector Goudreau (Horner) + 48%
5. Doug Horner (duh) +48%

All are Horner backers, unsurprising given his concentrated support in the rural north. On the Mar campaign, Thomas Lukaszuk (+30), Dave Hancock (+26), and Naresh Bhardwaj (+24) delivered the most, while George Groeneveld (+27) and Evan Berger (+21) were both more effective at delivering for Ted Morton than Ted Morton was.

And for those curious, the "thanks, but no thanks" award for the least effective endorsements is shared by Lindsay Blackett, Yvonne Fritz, Len Mitzel, Barry McFarland, Richard Marz, and Ken Allred. For these 6 MLAs, their candidate of choice did worse in their home riding than elsewhere.


Hat Tip to Tim Duncan for the endorsement numbers.

This Week in Alberta - the PCs pick a leader

Given that general elections only matter in Alberta every 30 or 40 years, the PC leadership race is really the one chance Albertans get to have their say in who becomes Premier. Not surprisingly, over 140,000 Albertans voted in 2006, and we could see close to that number casting their ballot tomorrow.

Assuming no candidate nets 50% + 1 on the first ballot, the field would be narrowed to three for a showdown in two weeks time. The fun thing about this race is that you can keep selling memberships right up to the final vote, adding an element on unpredictability. That's how Ralph Klein beat establishment darling Nancy Betkowski in 1992 and how Ed Stelmach came from nowhere to win in 2006.

While it's difficult to know what to expect, we were treated to a poll of PC members this week. Unlike previous polls of the general public, this one is somewhat meaningful in that it was of card carrying conservatives. Of course, there's obviously the question of how Environics acquired a party member list, so the numbers should be interpreted with some caution:

Gary Mar: 31%
Alison Redford: 20%
Doug Horner: 12%
Ted Morton: 10%
Rick Orman: 5%
Doug Griffiths: 4%
Undecided/Won’t vote: 17%

If these numbers are to be believed, we're looking at a final ballot of Mar, Redford, and either Horner or Morton.

With the undecideds factored out, Mar would be in a better position than Jim Dinning was in 2006 when Jim was held to 30% on the first ballot. But remember, Ed Stelmach came from 15% and third place to take it, so a Redford or Horton win isn't unfathomable, depending on what we see tomorrow.

The more polarizing Morton will have his work cut out of him - even if he comes in at 20% on the first ballot, I don't see him having the growth potential he'd need to pull it out. With many of his supporters having already jumped to the Wildrose Alliance, Ted Morton does not appear to be the man this time around.

Today in Totally Useless Polling

The Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald have released polling information on the Alberta PC and Alberta Liberal leadership races, giving us valuable information about who is winning...among people who will not vote in the contest.

First, the numbers:

PCs

Mar 12%
Morton 8%
Redford 6%
Orman 4.7%
Horner 4.7%
Griffiths 1.5%


Liberals

Sherman 9%
Blakeman 6.5%
MacDonald 5.4%
Harvey 2.6%
Payne 2.1%


While this is all very interesting, the reality is only 3% of Albertans voted in the last PC leadership race (which, in fairness, isn't much below the province's voter turnout rate in recent elections). For the Liberals? The number is 0.2%, and that's only because I rounded it up.

So, of the 900 people who took part in this survey, there are probably under 30 who will vote in the PC race...and maybe 1 who will take the time to vote for a new Grit boss.

That's not to say we should completely ignore what the general public thinks. After all, despite what some recent decisions might lead you to believe, most parties try to pick leaders who will appeal to the public at large. So a survey measuring how familiar voters are with the candidates and what they think of them isn't a complete waste of space.

But there's absolutely zero benefit in using something like this to try and figure out who is leading.

This Week in Alberta - Looking for a Leader

All eyes are on the PC and Liberal leadership races this summer in Alberta. Well, all eyes are on the PC leadership race, and a few eyes are glancing over at the Liberal one every now and then.

Still, the five Liberal candidates held a lively debate in Edmonton on Wednesday - you can read recaps of it here and here. Monday's debate in Calgary appears to have been a bit tamer, but Laurie Blakeman grabbed some headlines by suggesting the party should only run candidates in the seats it can win.

The ALP also earned some (rare) positive media this week, courtesy of the Globe & Mail.

On the PC leadership front, Doug Horner, Gary Mar, and Ted Morton lead the way in terms of caucus support. Mind you, given the increasing number of pot shots the candidates have been taking at their own government, it's unclear whether or not establishment support is actually a good thing.

Finally, for those of you who missed my Stampede Fashion Round-Up, here are some bonus pictures:









All photos save the Rae one, courtesy of Jenn Turcott.

This Week in Alberta: A Quick Glance at the PC Leadership Race

With Stelmach's announcement that he will stay on as Premier until this fall, there's plenty of time for his would-be-successors to put together campaign teams and sign up Albertans. Still, the field is starting to take shape - here's a quick overview of the likely candidates:

The PCs have two declared candidates - Ted "The Man" Morton and Doug "Doug" Horner. Alison Redford has yet to declare but, like most reasonably competent Cabinet Ministers with name recognition, she is expected to run. Gene Zwozdesky is thinking about it, if only to force everyone in Alberta to learn how to spell and pronounce his name.

Dough Griffiths may not be well known, but he's young and has more original ideas than the rest of the PC caucus put together. He'd be a welcome addition to the contest.

Jonathan Denis is also young and ambitious, but has said it's not his time yet.

Dave Hancock could represent the left...but there doesn't seem to be much point in running when he has no chance of victory.

Those are the likeliest suspects from within the PC caucus but what about a star outsider? Well, I wouldn't count on it.

Jim Dinning has simultaneously ruled out and mused about another run. Given it takes the man 40 minutes to order a donut, I wouldn't expect a decision any time soon, but most PCs I know aren't expecting another run from Jim.

Or, for that mater, from the other Jim - after all, Prentice has money to make in the private sector and his ambitions likely lie federally. Dave Bronconnier still smells too much like a Liberal. Preston Manning would have made a great Premier had he run in 2006...but he turns 70 next year. I'm hoping Craig Chandler runs, but only because Chandler is a bottomless source of blog material.

One outsider who sounds like he might be giving it a go is Gary Mar - Alberta's current Washington ambassador, and a former Health Minister.

I wouldn't expect any federal Tories to jump - the Cabinet Ministers have too much to lose, and the backbenchers lack the profile to mount a credible challenge. If anyone does run, James Rajotte seems like the most likely candidate.