NDP Hits a Wall in Saskatchewan

The year of the incumbent continues in Canada, with Brad Wall taking 49 of 58 seats and 64% of the vote.

Backs against the Wall

I don't intend to write much about the Saskatchewan provincial election because, truth be told, there's not much to write. When the incumbent is literally more popular than God, you can usually call the campaign before it begins.

So all that's left to determine is just how bad it gets for the opposition.

Don't expect the orange wave to hit land locked Saskatchewan on November 7th. The NDP are attempting to avoid a historic defeat - just once since the days of Tommy Douglas have they fallen below 20 seats, yet they could be down to a dozen ridings once the dust clears. I'll leave the "what went wrong" posts to those who actually follow Saskatchewan politics, but I have a tough time imagining a scenario where someone named "Dwain Lingenfelter" could beat someone named "Brad Wall". Just say those two names out loud and tell me who sounds like the stronger leader.

For the Liberals, the situation is even more dire. They're only running 9 candidates this election, and have gone all in on the Elizabeth May tactic of trying to get the leader elected - in this instance, Ryan Bater in the Battlefords. If they're shut-out for the third straight election, there's a very real chance the party could drift away into nothingness, prompting another round of "is the Liberal Party dying" columns.

The video below gives some background on Bater. Click here to donate and help get it on the air.

SaskWatch

THE MORNING AFTER UPDATE:

Sask Party: 52.2%, 37 seats
NDP: 36.2%, 21 seats
Liberals: 9.3%, 0 seats
Greens: 2.0%, 0 seats

And, for those paying attention, the Progressive Conservatives (812 votes) edged out the Western Independence Party (569 votes), and the Marijuana Party (508 votes) for fifth. Yet again, the Marijuana Party fails to mobilize it's vote...

So, for your "2007 Election Watch" wrap-up, that leaves three freshman governments who were all re-elected (albeit with Charest on academic probation) this year. Sophomore Gary Doer was also awarded a much deserved third term. However, a pair of long time governments with few faults were tossed out despite the good economic times.

Barring a surprise, that should do it for 2007. For 2008, expect Alberta to vote in mid-to-late March and keep an eye on the minority governments in Nova Scotia, Quebec and, of course, Ottawa.

As for Saskatchewan, this was clearly a case of "change for change's sake". Lorne Calvert has accomplish the rare feat of being defeated at the top of his game and he can certainly be proud of all he accomplished and the prosperity he leaves his province in. Brad Wall deserves full marks for moderating the Sask Party and running a solid campaign. The man clearly is the new "golden boy" of provincial politics, although he should remember that the last "golden boy" was run out of town in New Brunswick last year after two terms in power. As for the provincial Liberals, major soul searching is clearly needed after a result that is impossible to spin positively.

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The results are coming in from Saskatchewan and if one or two seats shift, the PR people are going to be going apesh*t!

Pop Vote:

SP 51.5%
NDP 36.2%
Lib 9.9%
Green 2.0%


Seats:

SP 30
NDP 27

The NDP are up in a few tight races so I'd expect the final win margin to be by a good half dozen seats.


UPDATE: As for the Liberals, David Karwacki is in a tight 3 way race...still too close to call.


UPDATE: Both the CBC and Globe have projected a Sask Party majority. Not a massive majority by any means, but a majority nevertheless.

And good on Brad Wall. Even though my leanings would certainly be towards the Liberal or NDP camp in Saskatchewan, he's done a good job as leader and is a very talented politician. He's fully deserving of the win.


UPDATE: 33 to 25 now, with the popular vote holding steady. Might I just say, it's quite interesting to see a long term prairie government tossed out in the midst of an economic boom. Quite interesting indeed...

SaskWatch

There are only 9 days to go in the Saskatchewan provincial election and due to a complete absence of any polling data, there's actually a bit of intrigue around the whole thing. I tend to agree with the common concensus that the NDP have hit a wall and the Sask Party is marching to a healthy majority on the strength of their charismatic leader. Look for the Liberals to increase their seat total as well...at the very least, it won't be going down. Here are a few other random notes from the election trail:


-The complete NDP platform has been released and the highlight has been a universal drug plan. Given rumblings that the Liberals might eventually put something like this on the table federally, it will be interesting to see how it plays.


-The Sask Party have released their crime platform, claiming that crime has skyrocketed under the NDP government. Of course, given that their candidate in Saskatoon Northwest has been arrested 20 to 30 times for things ranging from drug dealing to money laundering, it would be unfair to peg the entire thing on Calvert.


-The Liberals, meanwhile, are promising big tax cuts.


-The NDP have had a candidate Klanderized. The Sask Party are also down a man.


-Finally, John Murney has, far and away, the best Sask election coverage anywhere on the net. Constituency profiles and analysis of police positions...for all you saskophiles out there, it's the place to go.


UPDATE: Ask and ye shall receive. We've finally got poll numbers. Sask Party at 50%, NDP at 35%, Liberals at 10%.

Sask Grit

With the Saskatchewan election in full swing, here's an interview with Saskatchewan Liberal leader David Karwacki I did a week or two ago.

Random Links

I've been fairly busy of late so I've got a bunch of half posts that never materialized and e-mails with links I've never got around to posting sitting around. So, here's a completely random Friday link list:

1. The Better Calgary Coalition has their website up and online. They'll be commenting on the civic election in Calgary and *gasp* actually talking about the issues. Some of the issues getting media play so far in the campaign have been taxes and transit. Although, given the weather in Calgary, the sleeper issue might very well be snow removal.

2. Speaking of the race so far, I'd like to direct all my Ward 3 readers over to George Chahal's website. George is a very strong candidate who would be a big addition to council - go check out his site to see what he's talking about.

3. A hot rumour going around is that Bronconnier has brought on Rod Love and Hal Danchilla to help with his campaign. Hmm....Setting him up to replace Stelmach perhaps?

4. Saskliberal.ca is up and running.

5. From the people who brought you Derision 2006 comes The Goose, a satirical look at the Ontario election.

6. Here's an article slamming biofuels.

Meanwhile, in Saskatchewan...

The NDP's "same old Sask party" website has an attack add against the Sask Party, using the wolf in sheep's clothing pitch. The add says the Sask Party stood for a number of things they have since backed away from:

Private Health Care
Privatization of Crown Corporations
Making Saskatchewan like Alberta

Making Saskatchewan like Alberta? Like, rich?