Calgary (Leger, n=500 phone)
Ric McIver 43% (profile)
Barb Higgins 28%
Naheed Nenshi 8% (profile)
Kent Hehr 4.1% (profile)
Bob Hawkesworth 3.9%
Craig Burrows 3.6%
Joe Connely 2.9%
Wayne Stewart 1.8%
Alnoor Kassam 1.4%
Oscar Fech 1.2%
Bonnie Devine 0.8%
Paul Hughes 0.8%
John Lord 0.4%
Kassam and Hughes are actually out of the race. Likely a wise move, because if you're tied with Oscar Fech, it's time to go (Oscar's platform usually involves digging up gold buried under City Hall).
The results from this poll are hardly earth shattering. McIver has been the front runner for the past 5 years and Higgins is still finding her feet in this race. However, the news isn't all bad for her - 15 points can be made up in month municipally, and she is clearly positioned as the "anybody but McIver" candidate. Nenshi is still far back, but can at least spin this as a sign he's pulling away from the pack. For the rest of the field, there's little joy in mudville.
Toronto (Nanos, n = 1221 phone)
This poll will come as more of a shock for anyone living outside of Toronto. Yes, those "Liberal elites" John Baird rails against are lining up behind a man who could become Canada's first Tea Party mayor.
For those in Toronto, it's not as big a shock. Ford has become the torch bearer for every suburban voter fed up with waste at City Hall and has forged a Ralph Klein common man connection to voters, to the point where voters will forgive his many deficiencies.
Luckily, as is the case in Calgary, there's still a lot of baseball to be played and many voters are just now tuning in this episode already in progress. Right now, the "Stop Ford" vote is being split - by Election Day it will congeal, presumably around Smitherman.
Still, the early returns are strikingly similar in both Calgary in Toronto - in both cities, voters have clicked their right turn signal, looking to the candidate who talks the loudest about cleaning up waste at City Hall.