Calgary Votes Live Blog

10:35 pm: We're ready to call it. Calgary's next mayor:



Yes, that's right. Canada's conservative heartland just elected a mayor who is a visible minority, practicing muslim, Harvard graduate, university professor, and a policy wonk. And he wears purple.

Nenshi's rise is truly astonishing when you consider that he was polling in single digits, 35 points back of first, just four weeks ago. Sure, he had a bunch of Twitter followers and had released more policy than anyone else in the race, but the election was all about McIver versus Higgins. The problem was, neither McIver nor Higgins were saying much of anything.

So, poll after poll, Nenshi kept rising. He kept offering solutions to the problems facing the city, while McIver and Higgins argued over the proper amount to increase property taxes by. In the end, Calgary voters showed they weren't hung up on image, on name recognition, or on political affiliation. They voted for the best candidate, and the best candidate won.

This was a good day for democracy.



10:03 pm: Bad sign for Ric McIver. The volunteer they send out to speak on his behalf calls him "MacGyver". At this point, it may take MacGyver to get Ric out of the mess he's in, because Nenshi keeps pulling away.


9:59 pm: In the more interesting race, for last:

Oscar Fech 25
Gary F. Johnson 30
Amanda Liu 32

And Wayne Stewart (380) leads among the candidates who aren't actually in the race any more...


9:58 pm: The Nenshi HQ numbers have him up around 13,000 to 9,000 (McIver) to 8,000 (Higgins) based on their scrutineer numbers.


9:48 pm: Well that didn't take long. Higgins falls down to third as McIver's home ward (12) and downtown north (ward 7) come in.

Nenshi 7681
McIver 7513
Higgins 6239


9:39 pm: The results to date -

Higgins 3860
McIver 3661
Nenshi 3267

But the far south wards (McIver country) and the city centre/NE/campus wards (Nenshi country) are still to come. I still think Higgins might wind up in third when all is said and done.


8:59 pm: ...and CTV is going to "Dancing with the Stars". Because, yeah, it's been an exciting election and all but, at the end of the day, we all really want to know how Bristol Palin is doing.


8:49 pm: Steve Mandel projected to be re-elected as mayor of Edmonton.


8:46 pm: CTV shows us the race in Pincher Creek - Rob Buckner is wearing a ballcap in his official campaign picture. The Calgary Grit decision desk is going to call that race for Bucker right now, with 0% of polls reporting.


8:21 pm: We have results! The first poll is in...presumably from Barb Higgins' street. Barb has 26 votes, giving her a 20 vote lead on Naheed.


8:09 pm: Darrel Janz is wearing a purple tie on the CTV broadcast. Is this a slight to his old co-host?


7:45 pm (mountain time!): I'm coming to you live from the Calgary ex-pat election night party in Toronto, surrounded by purple t-shirts, Barb Higgins haircuts, and Ric McIver action figures (pull the string and he says...nothing - just like Ric!).

I'll be updating the results and adding commentary as it comes in, while dishing out the numbers on aldermanic races and maybe even some Edmonton results. Hell, you might even get some hockey scores and weather forecasts while I'm at it!

While you wait, you can read my profiles of the candidates (here, here, and here), my endorsement of Nenshi, and my consternation at how Rob Ford could be the next mayor of Toronto and Naheed Nenshi could be next mayor of Calgary.

Calgary Votes

Today, Calgarians cast their ballots for mayor. Well, some Calgarians will. The City has a well deserved reputation for being one of the most apathetic when it comes to democracy - one-third of Calgarians voted in 2007, one-fifth in 2004.

This time around, there are no execuses to stay home. Calgarians have close to a dozen legitimate candidates for mayor to choose from. And Oscar Fech! More importantly, there's a real race for the top, with three very different frontrunners in a statistical dead heat for the top prize.

While I don't have a vote, I actually like all three of the candidates at the top. Sure McIver is a Conservative, but he's not a scary socon or a buffoon, and he certainly has the experience to make a good Mayor. Higgins brings an outsider's perspective to the race and would be a great representative for Calgary. She's well spoken, affable, and likable. Had she committed herself to running for mayor earlier and developed a coherent vision for the city, there's little doubt she would have won.

Then there's Naheed. I won't call this an endorsement, because candidates I endorse usually don't do very well, but if I were living in Calgary today, he'd have my vote.

Quite simply, a win for Nenshi would be a win for substance over style. Naheed has run an issues-based campaign from the start, releasing his "better ideas" throughout the summer. The man has been writing about how to make Calgary a better city for years and he may finally get a chance to do that. He understands city council and city planning better than most of the current councilors, yet at the same time he'd be coming in as an outsider, ready and willing to shake things up and break Calgary free of the NIMBY mindset that has plagued City Hall for years.

Back in August, when I profiled the candidates, here's what I wrote about Naheed:

Naheed is brilliant and has, hands down, the best ideas of any candidate on how to run Calgary. So, of course, he will not win.

So come on Calgary - prove me wrong!


Voting Information - Hours, where to vote, etc...


Previous Calgary Votes Coverage

-Candidate Profiles: McIver, Higgins, Nenshi

-Nenshi, Lord, Burrows, and Connelly Calgary Grit survey responses

-What's the matter with Calgary

NOTE: I'll be live blogging the results tonight once the polls close, so be sure to tune in.

Stampede to the Polls: Ric McIver Profile

If I'm going to earn the right to keep the "Calgary" prefix on this blog's name, I feel it's my responsibility to cover Calgary politics. As such, I begin the first of my 764 part series, profiling the gaggle of candidates vying to replace Dave Bronconnier as Mayor of Calgary.

Sadly, with Craig Chandler siting out the race, Calgary doesn't have a mayoral candidate as nutilly right wing as Rob Ford. This is something I will take great pleasure in pointing out the next time a Torontonian tries to portray Calgary as conservative backwater.

However, after 20 years of Liberal mayors, we do have a Conservative frontrunner in this race.

Ric McIver

About Ric: Don't let the mustache fool you, McIver is as conservative as they come. His first campaign manager was none other than the aforementioned Craig Chandler and you can find pictures on Ric's flickr account of him volunteering for Stephen Harper and speaking at a rally against the undemocratic socialist separatist coalition. The site also contains pictures of Ric wearing nothing but a Conservative Party t-shirt.

On council, McIver has spent the last 9 years as the unofficial "opposition leader" to Mayor Bronconnier, earning his "Doctor No" nickname. He has railed against wasteful spending. He led the yellow ribbon charge. He's opposed Bronco's attempts to build bridges.

So it comes as no surprise to anyone that McIver is running for mayor or that he leads all other candidates in terms of name recognition.


Website
(Appearance: 7/10, Functionality 7/10, Content 4/10, Uniqueness 3/10, Overall 6/10)

McIver has run a cautious campaign, and he has produced a cautious website. Candidate smiling in front of Calgary? Check. Donation, Volunteer, and Take Action buttons? Check. Some pictures here, some press releases there? Check. But really, there's little to get excited about on this site. Which is fine - McIver has name recognition, money and volunteers. He doesn't need an aggressive online presence.


Social Media

892 Twitter followers - Ric tweets every few days
1691 Facebook fans
1995 Youtube views - but all his channel has are 2 slide shows


My Take: I actually don't have a problem with Ric, and not just because I made a bet last year that he'd win this election. Even if I don't agree with him, he's always been consistent and true to his principles.

However...colour me unimpressed with his campaign to date. The man has gone from Doctor No to Mister Sure. Airport tunnel? Sure! Ring road? Sure! If you read Ric's "vision" of Calgary, it certainly doesn't sound any more conservative than NDPer Bob Hawkesworth's. Hell, Hawkesworth is against the airport tunnel because it's too expensive.

Beyond that, McIver's one page vision is nothing more than municipal buzzword mad gab.

"Building complete communities where Calgarians can live, work and play without long commutes."
"Thoughtful development of our transit system, continued work on our road network and
intelligent downtown parking policies will help re-vitalize the core."
"Budgeting will be responsible, taxes justified and transparent"

This isn't just me being a jerk and picking out select lines - in McIver's one page "complete vision", the most exciting piece of policy he tosses out is a promise of "smart snow removal strategy". I have no clue what this means, but I'm hoping it involves Mr Plow.

In fairness to Ric, there's no need for him to release his full platform this early in the race, and I expect the surprise entry of Barb Higgins will lead to a bolder campaign than he would have otherwise run. But, so far, McIver appears content running a typical frontrunner campaign.

Let's Get Municipal

Calgary: Calgary is still buzzing over Barb Higgins' entry into the Mayoral race, and there are reports she has hired Liberal strategist Don Lovett as her campaign manager.

On the policy side, frontrunner Ric McIver has released his vision for Calgary, and Higgins has responded with her "policy framework". Both are bland, unoriginal, and short on specifics (the platforms, not the candidates, both of whom I find intriguing). Fellow candidate Naheed Nenshi offers a strong critique of these policy "announcements" on his site.

The airport tunnel is emerging as a big issue. True to the bizarre nature of Calgary politics, the right wing candidate wants to spend and the NDP proxy in this race thinks it's a waste of money. Go figure.


Toronto: With John Tory out of the race, it's now very much a Smitherman versus Ford affair.

And the Smitherman campaign is starting to turn up the heat, launching an attack "FordonFord" website.


Edmonton: Edmonton Politics is the must see source for this one. Also, Alex Abboud runs down the hotly contested ward races.


Montreal: Speculation is now rampant about the next mayoral election...in 2013. Good grief, we'll probably have 2 or 3 federal elections before then.

Regardless, the latest rumour has Denis Coderre making the jump to municipal politics. My anonymous Liberal sources have also confided to me that Martin Cauchon is now considering a run for Montreal mayor in 2013.


Dauphin: Tory MLA Inky Marr is running for mayor. Which means, in Inky's opinion, being a backbencher in Stephen Harper's caucus is a less glamourous position than being mayor of a town of 8,000 people.

This Week in Calgary: Barb Higgins Jumps Into the Field

At this point, it might be easier to report on who isn't running for Mayor of Calgary, because a very crowded field has yet another contender:

Calling herself a fiscal conservative, long-time CTV news anchor Barb Higgins announced Wednesday she's joining the race to become Calgary's next mayor.

"I have researched and written the news but I've had to stay neutral and I have made the decision to jump into municipal politics because I don't want to stay neutral anymore," she announced to reporters gathered in a hotel ballroom.

"We have a great city, a well-run city, but new thinking will only come from new people."

Despite earlier denials about her mayoral intentions, Higgins said she only started seriously exploring her candidacy two weeks ago. She abruptly resigned last week from the Calgary CTV News at 6 anchor desk she shared with co-host Darrel Janz for 21 years.

Depending on how you define "credible", there are now up to a dozen credible candidates in the field. On name recognition alone, Higgins and Alderman Ric McIver are clearly out in front of the pack (it's far too early to talk about committed support in polls). While The race won't heat up until after Labour Day, the next month will be critical for the 10 men in that pack, since it's unlikely more than 1 or 2 of them will be able to break free and give the front runners a run. I'd expect a few of them to drop out if they feel they're not gaining traction.

If none of them do break free, then a Higgins-McIver race would be an intriguing contest. McIver has been running for at least 5 years, so he's got the money and volunteers in place. Right wing groups in Calgary will line up behind him, but that certainly doesn't guarantee anything in a city which, counter intuitively, tends to elect Liberal mayors.

Higgins is better known than anyone else in the race, yet she remains the election's biggest unknown. She's a late comer to the contest, it's unclear what kind of organization she has (there are rumours of Rob Love being involved), and she's untested in the political arena. No one really knows where she sits on the political spectrum, though her first press conference suggests the campaign may turn into her defending Bronconnier's record, while McIver attacks it.

As they say, there's still a lot of baseball to be played. But Higgins' entry is a curve ball that has completely changed the dynamics of this race.

This Week in Calgary - Wild Race in Cowtown!

Ever since a down-to-earth reporter stunned everyone 30 years ago, Calgary's incumbent mayors have enjoyed cake walk after cake walk to re-election. They do their 3 or 4 terms, then ride off on horseback into the sunset, setting off a feeding frenzy to replace them.

So welcome to the feeding frenzy.

Dave Bronconnier announced in February that he wouldn't be seeking a fourth term, setting off wildfire speculation. Here's a rundown of some of the names being bandied about to replace him. I'm probably overlooking some, so be sure to add any others in the comments section.

Ric McIver (all but declared): McIver is my former alderman and the horse I'd put money on in this race - he's been organizing and fundraising for a long time, and can always get a good quote in the media. He's the torch bearer for the right wing in this race which, oddly enough, may work against him - despite the city's reputation, Calgary's last two mayors have been openly Liberal.

Kent Hehr (expected to run): Kent won back Calgary Buffalo for the Alberta Liberals last provincial election. Hehr, who has been confined to a wheelchair since being shot as a bystander in 1991, would make a very compelling foil to McIver should he decide to enter the race.

Naheed Nenshi (considering a run): Naheed is the head of the Better Calgary Coalition - should he run, I fully expect Naheed to be the anti-politician of the race, focusing on policy and taking on the NIMBY groups. It's hard to say how successful a campaign like that would be, but his candidacy would certainly bring a lot to the race.

Alnoor Kassam (thinking it over): This was my guy in 2007, when he took on Dave. Alnoor starts the campaign with more name recognition than most thanks to the green stop signs, but the barrage of negative media he was hit with in 2007 means he'll need to rebuild his image if he wants to run again.

Joe Connelly (declared): Connelly pulled off the upset in Ward 6 last election and has declared early, in a bid to generate some Joementum. His website is up, and features a buzzword bonanza, including promises such as "Delivery of services through transparent leadership conducting real consultation, followed by strategically planning and executing with precision."

Jon Lord (declared): This former Tory MLA is most famous for citing his membership in MENSA on a campaign brochure. His website projects his campaign as being a tad amateur and a tad verbose (Did you know Jon developed "the ISO 9000, the world's best efficiency and effectiveness business process re-engineering methodology"? Me neither.). But Lord gets major marks from me for mentioning "The Borg" in his principles section.

John Hughes (declared): Described as "an urban chicken activist". This tells you all you need to know about his candidacy.

Wayne Stewart (gauging support): A retied oil executive and former head of a local homeless foundation could appeal across the political spectrum.


Also Rumoured: Former Alderman Craig Burrows, the ageless Bob Hawkesworth, Diane Colley-Urquhart (who finished third in the Glenmore by election, running for the PCs), former alderman Brian Lee, Dave Taylor (who has denied interest, saying he's too old), Alberta's representative in DC Gary Mar, former solicitor general Harvey Cenaiko, Frank McKenna, Paul Hellyer, The professor and Mary Ann.