Pre-Debate Seat Projections

Up until now, I've taken the approach that the polls are rather meaningless, as the electorate still isn't tuned in to this campaign. There's no need to curl up in a fetal position in the shower just because your favourite party is down 10 points in Atlantic Canada.

But consider this the last free pass. Voters traditionally tune in after the debates, and there's no reason to think things will be any different this time. If the polls aren't moving by this time next week, it will be time to start worrying.

As the above trend-line shows, there has been little movement in the polls since last week:

Nanos (April 8-10, n = 982 phone): CPC 41%, Lib 30%, NDP 15%, BQ 8%
Decima (April 7-10, n = 1018 phone): CPC 40%, Lib 28%, NDP 15%, BQ 8%
Ipsos (April 5-7, n = 1001 phone): CPC 41%, Lib 26%, NDP 19%, BQ 9%
Ekos (April 4-7, n = 2555 autodial): CPC 36%, Lib 28%, NDP 17%, BQ 8%
Angus Reid (April 4-5, n=2031 online): CPC 38%, Lib 27%, NDP 21%, BQ 8%
Environics (Mar 30-April 5, n = 968 phone): CPC 38%, Lib 25%, NDP 20%, BQ 8%

Running Average: CPC 38.8%, Lib 27.4%, NDP 17.7%, Bloc 8.8%, Green 6.2%

This marks a slight narrowing of the gap from last week, but the emphasis is on slight. At the rate we're going, it would take a 4-month campaign for the Liberals to win.

At these numbers, if we were voting today, the Tories would have a 45.5% chance at a majority (down from 56.5% last week). The Liberals are up 6.4 seats from last week, with the Conservatives down 1.6, the NDP down 2.1, and the Bloc down 2.5. Despite this, the Liberal seat range places them right around their 2008 totals.

Here are the tables - for the methodology, check out last week's update. To clarify, "safe seats" are seats the party has a 95% chance of winning given current poll numbers and "seats in play" are seats they have at least a 5% chance of taking - it's based on current levels of support, it's not a prediction.

Pre-Christmas Poll Soup

It's hard to spin 2010 as a good year for Harper. He kicked the year off facing an unexpected fury over prorogation and declining poll numbers. He was attacked relentlessly by the opposition over G20 spending, the Census, and the $16 billion dollar fighter jet purchase. He had few accomplishments other than meeting Bonhomme Carnival and ensuring his post-politics musical tour will be sold out.

For the Liberals, 2010 felt better than 2009. They had a succesful summer bus tour and started rolling out policy planks voters could relate to. The economy continued to stumble along which is historically good news for opposition parties. Hell, just look at the trouble other incumbents had this year.

And yet...Harper was only a point or two up on the Liberals after getting hit by prorogation in January. And he closes the year riding the wave of the Vaughan by election, amid media and pollster speculation about a possible majority government. I think that's still premature - and I'll have seat projections to back that up tomorrow. But, for whatever reason, Harper has most definitely recovered from his horrible start to 2010 and is all the way up to...where he was at this time last year.

Ipsos Reid (Dec 7-9, n=1000 phone)
CPC 39%
Lib 29%
NDP 12%
Bloc 10%
Green 9%

Angus Reid (Dec 6-7, n = 1013 online)
CPC 38%
Lib 26%
NDP 18%
Bloc 10%
Green 7%

Ekos (Dec 1-7, n = 2574 robo dialled)
CPC 33.7%
Lib 29.2%
NDP 14.4%
Bloc 9.8%
Green 10.4%

Abacus (Dec 3-6, n = 1316 online)
CPC 35%
Lib 24%
NDP 20%
Bloc 10%
Green 10%

Nanos (Nov 29-Dec 2, n = 1017 phone)
CPC 38.1%
Lib 31.2%
NDP 17.2%
Bloc 10.2%
Green 3.2%


RUNNING AVERAGE (change since November in brackets)

CPC: 36.1% (+2.4%)
Lib: 28.5% (-0.2%)
NDP: 15.6% (-1.2%)
BQ: 9.8% (+0.4%)
Green: 8.5% (-1.1%)

Note: the running average is calculated based on sample size and pollster accuracy ratings, giving all polls (not just those listed above) a 2 week half life so that "fresher" data is worth more.

November Poll Soup: The More Things Change...

With a slew of polls out so far in November, this is a good time to check in on what the pollsters are saying. Not surprisingly, after a ho-hum fall on Parliament Hill, there hasn't been a lot of movement.


Ekos (Nov 3 to Nov 9, n = 1,815 demon dial)
CPC 29.4%
Lib 28.6%
NDP 19.3%
BQ 9.3%
Green 10.7%

Nanos (Nov 1 to Nov 5, n = 1,017 phone)
CPC 37.1%
Lib 31.6%
NDP 15.4%
BQ 10.8%
Green 5.2%

Ipsos Reid (Nov 2 to Nov 4, n = 1,000 phone)
CPC 35%
Lib 29%
NDP 16%
BQ 8%
Green 11%

Abacus (Oct 29 to Nov 1, n = 1,001 online)
CPC 33%
Lib 25%
NDP 21%
BQ 10%
Green 10%
(Given this is a new kid on the bloc, it was an online survey, and the Lib/NDP numbers seem a bit off, I'd be careful when looking at this one)

Decima (Oct 21 to Oct 31, n = 2000 phone)
CPC 33%
Lib 28%
NDP 17%
BQ 9%
Green 10%


RUNNING AVERAGE (change since the end of September in brackets)

CPC: 33.7% (-0.2%)
Lib: 28.7% (-1.0%)
NDP: 16.8% (+2.1%)
BQ: 9.4% (-0.3%)
Green: 9.6% (-0.6%)

Note: the running average is calculated based on pollster accuracy ratings, giving all polls (not just those listed above) a 2 week half life so that "fresher" data is worth more.


The largest change from September has been a jump in support for the NDP but, in reality, this is just a case of the NDP returning to their usual "resting position" after dipping this fall. They're still below the 18% we saw from them back in the spring and would lose seats if an election were held today (updated seat projections to come tomorrow).

Once again, this serves as a great reminder of how little change there has been in the Canadian political landscape since Harper took power in 2006. The Conservatives took that election by 6 points. Since then, Dion proposed a carbon tax, the Liberals got a new leader. Harper played the piano, Harper prorogued Parliament. Each time, the polls moved. The Tories have flirted with majority. The Liberals have pulled ahead by a few points once or twice.

But, slowly and surely, they always seem to drift back to that 6-point Tory lead, with the NDP merrily in the high teens and Quebec firmly in Gilles Duceppe's grip.

In short, we haven't seen a "game changer". Moreover, after seeing Stephen Harper as Prime Minister for 5 years, the electorate hasn't grown any more or less enamoured with the man. Sure, our attitude towards him has changed. Those who dislike Harper now do so more out of frustration than out of fear. But the man is still very much in minority territory.

Poll Soup: The House is Back

The kids are back in school and MPs are back in the House. It's safe to say Canadians still have larger things to worry about than politics, but it's worth checking in with the post-Labour Day polls to see if the earth moved while we were all on vacation.

Ipsos (released Sept 25, n = 1,002 phone)
CPC 35%
Lib 29%
NDP 12%
BQ 11%
Green 12%

Decima (Sept 9-19, n = 2,023 phone)
CPC 33%
Lib 30%
NDP 14%
BQ 10%
Green 11%

Ekos (Sept 8-14, n = 1,770 robo dial)
CPC 32.4%
Lib 28.9%
NDP 16.6%
BQ 8.6%
Green 10.7%

Environics (Sept 2-10, n = 1,918 phone)
CPC 35%
Lib 31%
NDP 16%
BQ 9%
Green 7%
Other 2%


AVERAGE (change since August in brackets)
CPC: 33.9% (+0.9%)
Lib: 29.7% (+1.2%)
NDP: 14.7% (-1.8%)
BQ: 9.7% (-0.1%)
Green: 10.2% (-0.2%)


The tracking numbers above are since August, but the more interesting comparison is likely to June. So what did Harper's terrible, terrible summer of Census, G20, and fighter jet fiascos cost him?

A whole 0.7 points.

The Liberals, meanwhile, did pick up 1.8 points. We can't say for sure that the Iggy Express is responsible but, still, if they actually gained 2 points and this isn't just random statistical noise then...well...good. That's nothing to sneeze at.

For the NDP, they've fallen back from their April peak...15% isn't a freakishly low polling average for them, but it's something to be concerned about if the trend continues.