Monday, September 27, 2010

Poll Soup: The House is Back

The kids are back in school and MPs are back in the House. It's safe to say Canadians still have larger things to worry about than politics, but it's worth checking in with the post-Labour Day polls to see if the earth moved while we were all on vacation.

Ipsos (released Sept 25, n = 1,002 phone)
CPC 35%
Lib 29%
NDP 12%
BQ 11%
Green 12%

Decima (Sept 9-19, n = 2,023 phone)
CPC 33%
Lib 30%
NDP 14%
BQ 10%
Green 11%

Ekos (Sept 8-14, n = 1,770 robo dial)
CPC 32.4%
Lib 28.9%
NDP 16.6%
BQ 8.6%
Green 10.7%

Environics (Sept 2-10, n = 1,918 phone)
CPC 35%
Lib 31%
NDP 16%
BQ 9%
Green 7%
Other 2%

AVERAGE (change since August in brackets)
CPC: 33.9% (+0.9%)
Lib: 29.7% (+1.2%)
NDP: 14.7% (-1.8%)
BQ: 9.7% (-0.1%)
Green: 10.2% (-0.2%)

The tracking numbers above are since August, but the more interesting comparison is likely to June. So what did Harper's terrible, terrible summer of Census, G20, and fighter jet fiascos cost him?

A whole 0.7 points.

The Liberals, meanwhile, did pick up 1.8 points. We can't say for sure that the Iggy Express is responsible but, still, if they actually gained 2 points and this isn't just random statistical noise then...well...good. That's nothing to sneeze at.

For the NDP, they've fallen back from their April peak...15% isn't a freakishly low polling average for them, but it's something to be concerned about if the trend continues.



  • Thanks for this summary recap and taking a long view.

    Yeah, it is disappointing there hasn't been more of a dent, but as Observant -- that One Man Spam, latter-day Tokyo Rose -- likes to say when _they're_ losing, only 9% of the populace actually pays attention to federal politics in-between elections

    So, just because most people haven't tuned in to what disasters the Cons are, yet, doesn't mean they won't when it counts.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:04 AM  

  • So what did Harper's terrible, terrible summer of Census, G20, and fighter jet fiascos cost him?
    A whole 0.7 points.

    If anyone is sitting there wondering just when the CPC will drop below 30% - don't hold your breathe. The ~30% mark is their base. Short of a serious scandal that would rock their base, that number won't drop much. So it should not surprise anyone that Harper's numbers are stable at this mark, in fact I expect them to rise modestly over the fall session.

    If the Grits want to improve their numbers, that huge swath of undecided voters are who need to be convinced. That 30% CPC base is not going to vote Liberal.

    If it's any consolation, the Conservatives are not helping their numbers any (G20 & F35 spending, census fiasco) as they need to attract that same pool of undecided if they have any hope of winning a majority government. And their 'scary' talk of a coalition isn't gaining any real traction anymore. Not sure if Mr Wright can turn things around, but he needs to convince the PMO to stop placating the base and begin to reach out more to the mushy middle. I believe that will be his goal.

    By Blogger Tof KW, at 11:15 AM  

  • you might be right, Tof KW, about the CPC being unlikely to move much from 30-ish% of DECIDED voters in relative terms, but let's not forget that there's another direction this can & likely will go: to a larger & larger no. of their former supporters in absolute terms who have NOT decided to vote... who will in fact decide NOT to vote when they finally become too disgusted by all they've seen & heard.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:47 PM  

  • Yes, at least annectdotally, the CPC seem to have done a better job than the other parties at getting their voters to the polls on Election Day.

    As Harper continues to get dinged on "spends like a Liberal" issues, more and more of them may stay home.

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