Monday, December 13, 2010

Pre-Christmas Poll Soup

It's hard to spin 2010 as a good year for Harper. He kicked the year off facing an unexpected fury over prorogation and declining poll numbers. He was attacked relentlessly by the opposition over G20 spending, the Census, and the $16 billion dollar fighter jet purchase. He had few accomplishments other than meeting Bonhomme Carnival and ensuring his post-politics musical tour will be sold out.

For the Liberals, 2010 felt better than 2009. They had a succesful summer bus tour and started rolling out policy planks voters could relate to. The economy continued to stumble along which is historically good news for opposition parties. Hell, just look at the trouble other incumbents had this year.

And yet...Harper was only a point or two up on the Liberals after getting hit by prorogation in January. And he closes the year riding the wave of the Vaughan by election, amid media and pollster speculation about a possible majority government. I think that's still premature - and I'll have seat projections to back that up tomorrow. But, for whatever reason, Harper has most definitely recovered from his horrible start to 2010 and is all the way up to...where he was at this time last year.

Ipsos Reid (Dec 7-9, n=1000 phone)
CPC 39%
Lib 29%
NDP 12%
Bloc 10%
Green 9%

Angus Reid (Dec 6-7, n = 1013 online)
CPC 38%
Lib 26%
NDP 18%
Bloc 10%
Green 7%

Ekos (Dec 1-7, n = 2574 robo dialled)
CPC 33.7%
Lib 29.2%
NDP 14.4%
Bloc 9.8%
Green 10.4%

Abacus (Dec 3-6, n = 1316 online)
CPC 35%
Lib 24%
NDP 20%
Bloc 10%
Green 10%

Nanos (Nov 29-Dec 2, n = 1017 phone)
CPC 38.1%
Lib 31.2%
NDP 17.2%
Bloc 10.2%
Green 3.2%

RUNNING AVERAGE (change since November in brackets)

CPC: 36.1% (+2.4%)
Lib: 28.5% (-0.2%)
NDP: 15.6% (-1.2%)
BQ: 9.8% (+0.4%)
Green: 8.5% (-1.1%)

Note: the running average is calculated based on sample size and pollster accuracy ratings, giving all polls (not just those listed above) a 2 week half life so that "fresher" data is worth more.



  • Waiter, there's a cry in my soup. Sniff.

    Seriously, I think a lot of the Cons' rise in the most recent polls is attributable to the seemingly good news LFS report of Dec. 3 which put the unemployment rate at the surprisingly soothing sounding 7.6%.

    'Course, that drop was achieved by so many giving up searching for work, but most people probably didn't hear or appreciate that, but even for those who did, it still _sounds_ low. But if/when that bounces back up near 8 again, I expect the Cons' pop. no's will be correspondingly lower.

    By Blogger WhigWag, at 7:18 PM  

  • This post should be saved for April 1, 2011.
    Can you point me to a "Liberal" or left leaning government doing well on this planet? Every left leaning government has been punished with a reduced number of seats are replaced.

    In 2009 the LPOC balance vs 2010? Seriously a successful bus tour?

    What is in the egg nog?

    The Polls don't matter. Campaigns do. They require money. Your team is back to 2008 under six million from 9 in 2009( right?)

    Since 2006 the CPC are 5/7, Lib-NDP are both 1/7.
    A single by election means nothing. (Seven?)
    Star candidates Larry Smith from Montreal sound familiar? Bernard Lord?

    Waiting for the CPC to fall apart since 2008? Everything and the kitchen sink has been thrown.

    Your team is refusing to talk policy for 2009. In 2010 they tried but little lift. Your guy was framed PET #2.
    He is firmly behind Jack in leadership polls.

    If NOTHING else above bothers you, sixty per cent want a new leader (liberal voters). Forget other partisans.

    That is the end game is 1-2 of base decide to stay home. Dion will not have the worst pop at 26%

    By Blogger CanadianSense, at 11:01 PM  

  • Don't look now, CS: the Senate's put out a contract on you. What seems like a century of your hyper-inflated prose has eroded the value and usefulness of your smack talk. Bye, now.

    By Blogger WhigWag, at 11:15 PM  

  • It's hard to spin 2010 as a good year for Harper.

    Is that facetious?
    - He's still in power
    - There is no threat on the horizon, either within the party or from the Opposition
    - His reputation has improved (which isn't hard when his reputation was he'd take rights away from women and gays, and send forces to Iraq)
    - Census and potash has got to be the weakest attack on a prime minister for any calendar year in our lifetimes

    He had few accomplishments

    That's certainly true. But that doesn't make it a bad year.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 10:08 AM  

  • RV - Fair enough. It was a good year in the sense that his hold on power hasn't diminished.

    But, I guess, the point is it shouldn't have been a good year for him based on what actually happened.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:50 PM  

  • I kept reading, waiting for the other half of the analysis: why the Liberals are down at the end of the year. Maybe not plumbing the depths of their lowest polling numbers ever, but certainly setting a new "normal" polling range for the Party, not having broken above 30% since around April of this year.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:23 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by the author.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 5:22 PM  

  • History has been clear in Europe with left wing governments being reduced or replaced. The US historic swing and Australia has independents Green keeping it afloat.

    CG may think the UN security seat or Fossil awards from an American left wing group mean something to the average voter.

    Same with F35 noise. Those companies are hiring and looking forward to $ 3-12 billion in potential contracts.

    Many Senior Liberals don't agree with the current leader including the Senator.

    Colin Kenny shred Liberal talking points Don Martin article.

    Romeo Dallaire,Jacques Saada,

    By Blogger CanadianSense, at 6:01 PM  

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