Pre-Christmas Poll Soup
It's hard to spin 2010 as a good year for Harper. He kicked the year off facing an unexpected fury over prorogation and declining poll numbers. He was attacked relentlessly by the opposition over G20 spending, the Census, and the $16 billion dollar fighter jet purchase. He had few accomplishments other than meeting Bonhomme Carnival and ensuring his post-politics musical tour will be sold out.
For the Liberals, 2010 felt better than 2009. They had a succesful summer bus tour and started rolling out policy planks voters could relate to. The economy continued to stumble along which is historically good news for opposition parties. Hell, just look at the trouble other incumbents had this year.
And yet...Harper was only a point or two up on the Liberals after getting hit by prorogation in January. And he closes the year riding the wave of the Vaughan by election, amid media and pollster speculation about a possible majority government. I think that's still premature - and I'll have seat projections to back that up tomorrow. But, for whatever reason, Harper has most definitely recovered from his horrible start to 2010 and is all the way up to...where he was at this time last year.
Ipsos Reid (Dec 7-9, n=1000 phone)
Angus Reid (Dec 6-7, n = 1013 online)
Ekos (Dec 1-7, n = 2574 robo dialled)
Abacus (Dec 3-6, n = 1316 online)
Nanos (Nov 29-Dec 2, n = 1017 phone)
RUNNING AVERAGE (change since November in brackets)
CPC: 36.1% (+2.4%)
Lib: 28.5% (-0.2%)
NDP: 15.6% (-1.2%)
BQ: 9.8% (+0.4%)
Green: 8.5% (-1.1%)
Note: the running average is calculated based on sample size and pollster accuracy ratings, giving all polls (not just those listed above) a 2 week half life so that "fresher" data is worth more.
Labels: poll soup