Pre-Debate Seat Projections
But consider this the last free pass. Voters traditionally tune in after the debates, and there's no reason to think things will be any different this time. If the polls aren't moving by this time next week, it will be time to start worrying.
As the above trend-line shows, there has been little movement in the polls since last week:
Nanos (April 8-10, n = 982 phone): CPC 41%, Lib 30%, NDP 15%, BQ 8%
Decima (April 7-10, n = 1018 phone): CPC 40%, Lib 28%, NDP 15%, BQ 8%
Ipsos (April 5-7, n = 1001 phone): CPC 41%, Lib 26%, NDP 19%, BQ 9%
Ekos (April 4-7, n = 2555 autodial): CPC 36%, Lib 28%, NDP 17%, BQ 8%
Angus Reid (April 4-5, n=2031 online): CPC 38%, Lib 27%, NDP 21%, BQ 8%
Environics (Mar 30-April 5, n = 968 phone): CPC 38%, Lib 25%, NDP 20%, BQ 8%
Running Average: CPC 38.8%, Lib 27.4%, NDP 17.7%, Bloc 8.8%, Green 6.2%
This marks a slight narrowing of the gap from last week, but the emphasis is on slight. At the rate we're going, it would take a 4-month campaign for the Liberals to win.
At these numbers, if we were voting today, the Tories would have a 45.5% chance at a majority (down from 56.5% last week). The Liberals are up 6.4 seats from last week, with the Conservatives down 1.6, the NDP down 2.1, and the Bloc down 2.5. Despite this, the Liberal seat range places them right around their 2008 totals.
Here are the tables - for the methodology, check out last week's update. To clarify, "safe seats" are seats the party has a 95% chance of winning given current poll numbers and "seats in play" are seats they have at least a 5% chance of taking - it's based on current levels of support, it's not a prediction.