Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Keith Martin Retires

I'm not sure if it's the weather or what, but it seems like everyone is deciding to pack it up. Another day, another retirement announcement - this time Liberal MP Keith Martin.

I've always had a lot of time for Keith Martin. He entered politics for the right reasons. When he switched parties, it wasn't to grab a Cabinet seat - he sat as an independent, won the Liberal nomination, then ran and won under the Liberal banner in the 2004 election. He's always been an issues-driven MP, trying to make a difference, with Health Care reform the topic most near and dear to his heart. (Click here to see my interview with him on the state of Health Care in Canada)

Martin's loss will definitely be a blow to the Liberals. My seat projector pegged his re-election odds at 61%, but it's foolish to think Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca was anything but a Keith Martin seat. And since Martin only took the riding by 68 votes last time, this one has CPC pick-up written all over it.

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15 Comments:

  • I wouldn't say it would be a Conservative pick-up for sure. The riding is completely NDP provincially. A lot of people probably voted Liberal because they were voting for Keith Martin.

    With him retiring the Liberal vote will likely decrease significantly and go to the NDP if they nominate a strong candidate.

    Plus with HST being all the rage in BC right now, it doesn't bode so well for the Conservative candidate.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:27 PM  

  • I fail to see the connection. Neither the federal Conservative candidate nor the provincial party support the HST. THAT was a Liberal move and 100% supported in the end by the federal Liberals who introduced it to eastern Canada in the late 90's.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:33 PM  

  • This is a military riding. It's going CPC.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:42 PM  

  • The Federal Cons ARE Provincial Libs in BC. The "Provincial Conservatives" are even more extremely right wing than the federal Cons... Everyone who lives out here knows that the Federal Cons and Prov "Libs" are pretty much one and the same.

    By Blogger WesternGrit, at 8:49 PM  

  • It was the federal Conservatives who pressured the provincial Liberals into supporting the HST. The federal Liberals supported this as well. Also, the federal Conservatives gave a massive financial incentive for BC to harmonize its PST with the GST. The Cons name is all over this policy.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:20 PM  

  • "I fail to see the connection. Neither the federal Conservative candidate nor the provincial party support the HST. THAT was a Liberal move and 100% supported in the end by the federal Liberals who introduced it to eastern Canada in the late 90's."

    The HST is a federal tax that was brought into BC by Harper. The NDP will use that to their advantage.

    Here are my thoughts on Keith Martin's resignation:
    http://redtoryliberal.blogspot.com/2010/11/no-one-else-called-it-but-i-might-have.html

    By Blogger Red Tory Liberal, at 9:21 PM  

  • This is a very left-leaning seat - the two provincial ridings that make up Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca went NDP by 20 and 25 point margins last year. The Liberal vote was artificially inflated with Martin as the candidate - with him out of the picture - the Liberal vote will collapse and the underlying NDP demographics of the riding will assert themselves. The only way this seat goes CPC is if the Tories get 45% of the BC popular vote again and lead the NDP by at least 15 points - Highly unlikely.

    By Blogger DL, at 10:54 PM  

  • DL, I repeat, military riding.

    Military doesn't vote provincially, they vote in their 'home' riding.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:20 AM  

  • Military have just as much right to vote in provincial, federal or municipal elections - and in any case the military population in Esquimalt is a tiny part of the overall population of the riding.

    Its too bad, with all the news stories about the way the Harper government is mistreating veterans and the poverty level wages that most soldiers get - I would make no assumptions about how the voters at CFB Esquimalt would vote.

    By Blogger DL, at 10:21 AM  

  • One positive thing is that the Conservative candidate Troy de Souza has served in the military and can relate to CFB Esquimalt. Also, Conservative funding has helped several major projects in Naden and DND. The NDP have not had a credible candidate since 2 elections ago (2006) and the NDP are certainly not known for supporting our military --never have been.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:20 PM  

  • Based solely on the riding demographics, this riding "looks" like a Conservative riding.

    That said, I may have been a bit brash in calling it outright for the CPC. The NDP are certainly in the game here, but you really have to peg the CPC as the odds on favourites here next election.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 5:00 PM  

  • Conservative support in BC is down at least 10% from the last election according to just about every poll. They will be in no position to win extra seats - they'll be lucky not to lose what they've got. EDJ ss a very left-leaning riding by BC standards. Esquimalt itself is a very working class area and the rest of the riding is fairly typical Vancouver Island NDP territory - much like Nanaimo-Cowichan. People at the base vote in their home ridings and I'd be surprised if more than 5% of the voters have any connection to the CF.

    By Blogger DL, at 5:56 PM  

  • Anon 2:20: I'm not an NDP supporter by any stretch, but for you to say the NDP (or ANY party for that matter) does not support the military is idiotic. I have dear friends who vote NDP IN the forces. The NDP are some of the most vocal advocates of the rights of soldiers, treatment of soldiers, a veteran health and welfare issues. When the Conservatives were derided by veterans about their treatment at Harper's hands, the Liberals and NDP were standing in solidarity. No Conservative PM in recent memory spent as much on the military as Pierre Trudeau (go check that fact).

    It is insulting to fellow Canadians to claim that one group (by it's lip service) cares more about the troops. Even peace advocates support the troops in their own way (they care so much for their safety that they would rather our young kids don't go overseas to war)...

    By Blogger WesternGrit, at 6:00 PM  

  • If "military riding" is relevant, it's worth pointing out that Halifax - home to the largest base in the country - is represented federally by the NDP and Liberals and mostly by the NDP provincially.

    By Blogger Josh, at 11:24 PM  

  • It will not really have effect, I feel like this.

    By Anonymous sex life, at 1:21 PM  

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