Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Projections Update

(for methodology used, click here)

Cerberus and DemocraticSpace have posted projections today so I figured I'd take the time to update my leadership projections and posted them on google spreadsheets for everyone to take a look at (if you'd like the excel file with formulas, e-mail me). I recognize that it may not be the easiest to read so e-mail me if you're confused by the set-up.

I've updated the numbers for endorsements, MP endorsements, blog endorsements, ex-officio support (averaged between delegate count and wikipedia), other projections, and media mentions. I've also bit the bullet and used the bizarre fundraising numbers which were released in August. Hopefully we'll see some figures released soon which bring all the candidates up to August 31st. I've also tinkered with the existing member support in a few ridings, primarily to help Bob Rae who has undeniably had a good month (also gave him a few more membership sales in Ontario under the assumption that some of Bennett's support will drift his way).

When that's all said and done, here are my updated first ballot predictions:

Michael Ignatieff 26.2%
Gerard Kennedy 18.5%
Bob Rae 15.9%
Stephane Dion 13.9%
Joe Volpe 10.2%
Scott Brison 6.5%
Ken Dryden 6.4%
Martha Hall Findlay 2.0%
Hedy Fry 0.5%

19 Comments:

  • Looks pretty good and consistent. I have Rae a bit higher, even with Kennedy based upon Ontario membership forms that I saw at LPCO. I also have Dryden and Brison higher and Volpe lower because their support is spread out better and Volpe's seems more concentrated in a few ridings. But on the whole, hard to disagree with the overall estimate.

    By Blogger Cerberus, at 2:45 AM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 3:28 AM  

  • Down & Out in L A said...

    Nice work Bart. Hard to argue with the methodology.

    Big name endorsements will certainly influence the final outcome.

    David McGuinty announcing support for Ignatieff certainly is a slap in the face from Dalton to Kennedy.

    You can be sure that the brothers spoke before an announcement of that significance.

    Other announcements like this will influence the outcome further, not that I am supporting Ignatieff.

    In fact, I hope that other influential Liberals will step up and support other candidates. The last thing our party needs is an Ignatieff bandwagon leading up to the convention.

    How many of us will shell out $1,000 plus to attend that ?

    And as a Liberal supporter since 1967, the only candidate I wouldn't choose ahead of Ignatieff would be Volpe . . . . though I'd have to think a lot about Bob Rae) . . . . . . . . . sigh

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 3:42 AM  

  • Michael Ignatieff 33.1%
    Bob Rae 18.6%
    Gerard Kennedy 16.3%
    Stephane Dion 16.2%
    Ken Dryden 5.3%
    Joe Volpe 4.7%
    Scott Brison 4.7%
    Martha Hall Findlay 0.4%
    Hedy Fry 0.2%

    By Blogger Hammering Jow, at 9:44 AM  

  • CG, I think your predictions are interesting, especially because if Ignatieff is that low on the first ballot, then I don't think he has a chance, even though he will be first on the first ballot. Too many of the other candidates will support either Rae, Kennedy or Dion, and I can't see where Ignatieff will get more support from. As much as I don't like him, my money is on Kennedy .

    By Blogger Andrew Smith, at 10:08 AM  

  • CG:

    Hey!
    Your estimates for Iggy and Rae are likely dead on. But the middle is mixed up considerably.

    Brison is not as strong as people think. As the Atlantic Candidate you would picutre him doing well there right? At least capitalizing on it being an easy out for delegates to back the regional guy until they see what happens on subsequent ballots? RIght? Wrong. The grand total of two (2) form 6's were turned in on PEI for Brison:

    Iggy 72
    Rae 70
    Dryden 45
    kennedy 36
    Dion 28
    Brison 2
    Volpe 0
    MHF 0
    fry 0
    Undeclared 16

    If this is a sample ( and PEI is often used by marketing companies and pollsters as a test audience) then your numbers in the middle need reworking.

    Volpe will NOT be ahead of BRison or Dryden.

    Here's how it will look:

    Iggy 29
    Rae 19.5
    Kennedy 14.5
    Dion 11.5
    Dryden 9.5
    Brison 6.5
    Volpe 5.5
    MHF 3.5
    Fry (she will not be on the ballot- if she is, she will get 0.25)

    After the first ballot MHF's 3.5 will be in play, and Volpe's 5.5 will dessert him.

    You will then either see a pile on Rae, or if double andbody but Iggy or Rae's get going, whoever grows the most amongst Dion, Kennedy or Dryden from MHF/volpe, and then Brison will be the winner, provided they get above Rae.

    I expect Dryden and Dion to get more support on the second ballot from other camps than anyone might expect. A considerable group will want a french speaking leader, and a considerable group will want electability.

    It is going to be very close amongst Dion, Kennedy and Dryden to see who stays on the ballot long enough to profit from the anybody but IGGY/Rae scenario.

    By Blogger Put the Party first, at 10:19 AM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Peter, at 11:38 AM  

  • Down & Out in L A,

    You say:

    "David McGuinty announcing support for Ignatieff certainly is a slap in the face from Dalton to Kennedy."

    Why the delay in announcing? Probably because Dalton felt he could use Gerard in the Parkdale-High Park by-election. Gerard did campaign for the Liberal candidate in the riding in spite of the federal leadership race.

    http://www.sylviawatson.com/endorsements.htm

    The real surprise is that David McGuinty came out supporting Iggy (it's o.k. to call him that since he has endorsed "Iggynation") instead of Bob Rae (who his two strongest ministers - Sorbara and Smitherman - are working very, very hard to win).

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 11:40 AM  

  • I really think Fry can pick up support from other candidates on the 2nd and third ballot.

    Behold the Fry juggernaught!!!

    By Blogger Riley Hennessey, at 1:52 PM  

  • Yeah, who can resist her pitch?

    At every delegate selection meeting after people commit to one of the others, she gets a pimply-faced teenager to ask them, "You want Fry with that?"

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 2:18 PM  

  • 10 and 6.5 for Volpe and Brison, and 2 for Hall-Findlay?

    Is there no justice in the world? In the Liberal Party?! :(

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 2:31 PM  

  • Watched western lib forum. Iggy has it bagged!


    Are you anywhere near Ottawa?

    Support our troops: Rally on Parliament Hill, Friday, Sept. 22; God bless CFRA, Ottawa.
    http://www.cfra.com/red-fridays/index.asp?id=8

    "News Talk Radio 580 CFRA is proud to support the grassroots effort brought to Petawawa by the wives of two men serving in the Canadian Forces. The concept of wearing something red - whether a red shirt, jacket, cap, bandana or whatever - every Friday is meant to let the soldiers and their spouses and children know they are not alone.
    We appreciate the sacrifices they are making on our behalf. We thank them for their service to our country and their fight for peace and justice wherever in the world they are sent.

    With that in mind, CFRA invites you to attend a massive "Red Friday" public rally. This is a non-partisan, non-political rally in support of Canadian troops and their families:

    * Friday Sept 22, 2006
    * Parliament Hill, Ottawa
    * 12:00 Noon - 1:00 pm

    Police officers, firefighters, city staff, politicians of all stripes, OC Transpo staff, paramedics, united way workers, private colourful parade of veterans as they show respect and thanks in a very public way.

    PLEASE SHARE THIS PAGE WITH EVERYONE ON YOUR CONTACT LIST. HELP SPREAD THE WORD, AND WEAR RED THIS FRIDAY!

    For more information on supporting our troops, visit http://www.marriedtothecanadianforces.com

    Mark in Ottawa / TG in Courtenay

    PS: Ignore Jack! Pull-out means schools bombed, children and teachers killed. Men hanging from soccer field goal posts.

    Taliban can not rely on educated kids to be reliable walking bombs. = TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 5:47 PM  

  • I see you have Volpe moving up.

    By Blogger RedMapleLeaf, at 8:58 PM  

  • Who said these words: "I always supported the notion that Quebec . . . is a nation, it is a distinct society, which we need to recognize in our Constitution and I have fought for that," Mr. Rae said. "The genius behind federalism is that we can be both a Quebecker and a Canadian."

    WRONG! Bob Rae, at the non-televised debate in Quebec on August 9, 2006. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060810.LIBERALS10/TPStory/?query=Liberal+hopefuls+argue+over+Quebec+Only+120+attend+event+conducted+in+French

    Who said these words: “the unilateral repatriation of the Constitution without Quebec must be fixed.”

    Wrong again! Bob Rae, at a campaign stop in Quebec, May 17, 2006. http://www.scottbrison.ca/in-the-media-details_e.php?pid=29&year=2006

    Discuss.

    By Blogger Ray Daze, at 12:56 AM  

  • cg, i think your volpe numbers are a lot better, but still on the low side.
    put the party first said,
    After the first ballot MHF's 3.5 will be in play, and Volpe's 5.5 will dessert him.
    volpe's will dessert him? sounds tasty. why would they leave him? his supporters are obviously pretty dedicated if they signed up after the 'apotex kiddie donations'. these are people who would have left long ago if they were going to. volpe will do quite well, regardless of his numbers in pei, or nunavut, yukon, nwt lol. all the candidates are weak in some ridings. in alberta we have many ridings with less than 100 members, so for each campaign to have a full slate of delegates is not plausible.

    By Blogger ktr, at 2:02 AM  

  • hammeringjow, I will send you $5 if Micheal Ignatieff (or anyone) breaks 30% at the DEMs.

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 5:54 PM  

  • Do I read your spreadsheet correctly that you're expecting a total of six Fry delegates (including herself)?

    Would it be easier to read the numbers as predicted delegate counts first (and percentages after)?

    By Blogger Paul, at 10:51 PM  

  • Michael Ignatieff 33.1%
    Bob Rae 18.6%
    Gerard Kennedy 16.3%
    Stephane Dion 16.2%
    Ken Dryden 5.3%
    Joe Volpe 4.7%
    Scott Brison 4.7%
    Martha Hall Findlay 0.4%
    Hedy Fry 0.2%


    I win.

    By Blogger Hammering Jow, at 1:16 PM  

  • Thanks for your article, very useful information.

    By Anonymous www.filmoteca.biz, at 3:34 PM  

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