Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Projections Update

(for methodology used, click here)

Cerberus and DemocraticSpace have posted projections today so I figured I'd take the time to update my leadership projections and posted them on google spreadsheets for everyone to take a look at (if you'd like the excel file with formulas, e-mail me). I recognize that it may not be the easiest to read so e-mail me if you're confused by the set-up.

I've updated the numbers for endorsements, MP endorsements, blog endorsements, ex-officio support (averaged between delegate count and wikipedia), other projections, and media mentions. I've also bit the bullet and used the bizarre fundraising numbers which were released in August. Hopefully we'll see some figures released soon which bring all the candidates up to August 31st. I've also tinkered with the existing member support in a few ridings, primarily to help Bob Rae who has undeniably had a good month (also gave him a few more membership sales in Ontario under the assumption that some of Bennett's support will drift his way).

When that's all said and done, here are my updated first ballot predictions:

Michael Ignatieff 26.2%
Gerard Kennedy 18.5%
Bob Rae 15.9%
Stephane Dion 13.9%
Joe Volpe 10.2%
Scott Brison 6.5%
Ken Dryden 6.4%
Martha Hall Findlay 2.0%
Hedy Fry 0.5%


  • Looks pretty good and consistent. I have Rae a bit higher, even with Kennedy based upon Ontario membership forms that I saw at LPCO. I also have Dryden and Brison higher and Volpe lower because their support is spread out better and Volpe's seems more concentrated in a few ridings. But on the whole, hard to disagree with the overall estimate.

    By Blogger Ted Betts, at 2:45 a.m.  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 3:28 a.m.  

  • Down & Out in L A said...

    Nice work Bart. Hard to argue with the methodology.

    Big name endorsements will certainly influence the final outcome.

    David McGuinty announcing support for Ignatieff certainly is a slap in the face from Dalton to Kennedy.

    You can be sure that the brothers spoke before an announcement of that significance.

    Other announcements like this will influence the outcome further, not that I am supporting Ignatieff.

    In fact, I hope that other influential Liberals will step up and support other candidates. The last thing our party needs is an Ignatieff bandwagon leading up to the convention.

    How many of us will shell out $1,000 plus to attend that ?

    And as a Liberal supporter since 1967, the only candidate I wouldn't choose ahead of Ignatieff would be Volpe . . . . though I'd have to think a lot about Bob Rae) . . . . . . . . . sigh

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 3:42 a.m.  

  • CG, I think your predictions are interesting, especially because if Ignatieff is that low on the first ballot, then I don't think he has a chance, even though he will be first on the first ballot. Too many of the other candidates will support either Rae, Kennedy or Dion, and I can't see where Ignatieff will get more support from. As much as I don't like him, my money is on Kennedy .

    By Blogger Unknown, at 10:08 a.m.  

  • I really think Fry can pick up support from other candidates on the 2nd and third ballot.

    Behold the Fry juggernaught!!!

    By Blogger Forward Looking Canadian, at 1:52 p.m.  

  • Yeah, who can resist her pitch?

    At every delegate selection meeting after people commit to one of the others, she gets a pimply-faced teenager to ask them, "You want Fry with that?"

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 2:18 p.m.  

  • 10 and 6.5 for Volpe and Brison, and 2 for Hall-Findlay?

    Is there no justice in the world? In the Liberal Party?! :(

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 2:31 p.m.  

  • Watched western lib forum. Iggy has it bagged!

    Are you anywhere near Ottawa?

    Support our troops: Rally on Parliament Hill, Friday, Sept. 22; God bless CFRA, Ottawa.

    "News Talk Radio 580 CFRA is proud to support the grassroots effort brought to Petawawa by the wives of two men serving in the Canadian Forces. The concept of wearing something red - whether a red shirt, jacket, cap, bandana or whatever - every Friday is meant to let the soldiers and their spouses and children know they are not alone.
    We appreciate the sacrifices they are making on our behalf. We thank them for their service to our country and their fight for peace and justice wherever in the world they are sent.

    With that in mind, CFRA invites you to attend a massive "Red Friday" public rally. This is a non-partisan, non-political rally in support of Canadian troops and their families:

    * Friday Sept 22, 2006
    * Parliament Hill, Ottawa
    * 12:00 Noon - 1:00 pm

    Police officers, firefighters, city staff, politicians of all stripes, OC Transpo staff, paramedics, united way workers, private colourful parade of veterans as they show respect and thanks in a very public way.


    For more information on supporting our troops, visit http://www.marriedtothecanadianforces.com

    Mark in Ottawa / TG in Courtenay

    PS: Ignore Jack! Pull-out means schools bombed, children and teachers killed. Men hanging from soccer field goal posts.

    Taliban can not rely on educated kids to be reliable walking bombs. = TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 5:47 p.m.  

  • cg, i think your volpe numbers are a lot better, but still on the low side.
    put the party first said,
    After the first ballot MHF's 3.5 will be in play, and Volpe's 5.5 will dessert him.
    volpe's will dessert him? sounds tasty. why would they leave him? his supporters are obviously pretty dedicated if they signed up after the 'apotex kiddie donations'. these are people who would have left long ago if they were going to. volpe will do quite well, regardless of his numbers in pei, or nunavut, yukon, nwt lol. all the candidates are weak in some ridings. in alberta we have many ridings with less than 100 members, so for each campaign to have a full slate of delegates is not plausible.

    By Blogger kenlister1, at 2:02 a.m.  

  • hammeringjow, I will send you $5 if Micheal Ignatieff (or anyone) breaks 30% at the DEMs.

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 5:54 p.m.  

  • Do I read your spreadsheet correctly that you're expecting a total of six Fry delegates (including herself)?

    Would it be easier to read the numbers as predicted delegate counts first (and percentages after)?

    By Blogger Paul, at 10:51 p.m.  

  • Thanks for your article, very useful information.

    By Anonymous www.filmoteca.biz, at 3:34 p.m.  

  • By Blogger zzyytt, at 12:25 a.m.  

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