Friday, September 15, 2006

Call Me Carolyn

In the day she's profiled in the Globe and Mail, Carolyn Bennett has dropped out and tossed her support behind...Bob Rae.

This is probably for the best. Carolyn is an individual who I really like as a person but she certainly wouldn't have made a good leader and was heading for an embarrassing delegate total if she'd stayed in. As for Rae, this isn't as big a "get" as Maurizio, but it's impossible to deny anymore than Bob is a serious contender who could win this thing.

What's more interesting is the position this leaves Bennett's supporters in. Today is the deadline to submit your form if you wish to run as a delegate for the convention. So anyone who has already submitted their form to run for Bennett might find themselves unable to run for another candidate at delegate selection time which would be a real shame. Hopefully the party will make some sort of exception and allow them to switch their declared support.

20 Comments:

  • I still think it is safe to say that Rae can't win this thing. Maybe not as safe but safe nontheless. He will go to convention with less than 20% of the delegates. It would take a miracle for him to get from that point to 50% seeing as he is very few people's second, or even third choice.

    Some disagree with me on this, but I am still fairly confident.

    By Blogger Kyle Carruthers, at 1:58 PM  

  • From CG, last Sunday:

    "Healthcare (Rae, Volpe, Bennett)

    Bennett talks about prevention while making choking gestures with her hands. In the exchange, she gets a dig in against Bob, saying she decided to run provincially "after five years of Bob Rae" because the health care system was in bad shape in Ontario.
    " (emphasis added)

    The lack of principle in the Liberal Party never does cease to amaze me

    By Blogger Brandon, at 2:39 PM  

  • Yeah, I remember that.

    Weird dig by Bennett considering she must have known a week ago that she'd be going Bob's way (I doubt this was a spur of the moment decision).

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:06 PM  

  • I don't think she knew she was dropping. I think she had to make a decision quickly once she realized she would submit a sad number of Form 6's. Rae probably offered to pay her debt (them folks at Power Corp have deep pockets), and the deal was done.

    The principled Bennett I knew would never have done this. I fear what has happened to the Party if some like her is cutting such deals, and backing someone she so clearly has a problem with.

    By Blogger Concerned YL, at 5:25 PM  

  • p.s. CG: I note you did not report on the recent comprehensive poll of the leadership race. Seems odd for an active blogger to avoid such a story. Why no post on it?

    (I think I know why).

    By Blogger Concerned YL, at 5:26 PM  

  • I would be surprised if Bennett had any debt. She was running a pretty low budget campaign. I'm going to ask her myself why she did this on her weekly MSN chat.

    By Blogger Justin Tetreault, at 5:48 PM  

  • concerned yl,

    Although recently not always in agreeance with his commentary, Warren's September 15 blog comment may be the reason why Calgary Grit has not brought it up.

    http://warrenkinsella.com/musings.htm

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 5:56 PM  

  • Carolyn Bennett should be congratulated for sticking to her principles and supporting a candidate who shares her vision, and the only one who can take Steven Harper in the next federal election. Those who know Carolyn know that the vision she shares with the thousands of people she met throughout her campaign, is bigger then her personal bid to become Prime Minister. By joining forces with Bob Rae she is ensuring that this vision becomes a reality.

    The press has certainly focused on Bob Rae’s time as the Premier of Ontario, but I must say I agree with Carolyn’s comments that “wisdom is making mistakes and learning from them.” Bob Rae has thirty years experience in politics, he knows the difference between parliament and government, and he is a true democrat.

    Carolyn Bennett is a champion for democratic renewal and her respect for the grassroots of this country is clearly evident. I am especially impressed with her comments regarding delegate selection. In her press conference this morning she clearly expressed to all her supporters that they are free to vote for whomever they believe will best represent them as leader of the Liberal party and future Prime Minister of Canada.

    As a Carolyn Bennett supporter I will follow her to Bob Rae’s team and work hard to ensure that Bob Rae becomes the next leader of the liberal party.

    By Blogger Carolyn Supporter, at 7:08 PM  

  • On Politics, Bennett said that she decided at supper last night!

    By Blogger Jason Cherniak, at 7:08 PM  

  • Carolyn Bennett should be congratulated for sticking to her principles and supporting a candidate who shares her vision, and the only one who can take Steven Harper in the next federal election. Those who know Carolyn know that the vision she shares with the thousands of people she met throughout her campaign, is bigger then her personal bid to become Prime Minister. By joining forces with Bob Rae she is ensuring that this vision becomes a reality.

    The press has certainly focused on Bob Rae’s time as the Premier of Ontario, but I must say I agree with Carolyn’s comments that “wisdom is making mistakes and learning from them.” Bob Rae has thirty years experience in politics, he knows the difference between parliament and government, and he is a true democrat.

    Carolyn Bennett is a champion for democratic renewal and her respect for the grassroots of this country is clearly evident. I am especially impressed with her comments regarding delegate selection. In her press conference this morning she clearly expressed to all her supporters that they are free to vote for whomever they believe will best represent them as leader of the Liberal party and future Prime Minister of Canada.

    As a Carolyn Bennett supporter I will follow her to Bob Rae’s team and work hard to ensure that Bob Rae becomes the next leader of the liberal party.

    By Blogger Carolyn Supporter, at 7:09 PM  

  • I also believe the theory that this was a somewhat spur of the moment decision. There was a notice sent out to Saskatchewan Liberals on Tuesday afternoon announcing a Bennett event in Saskatoon today at noon. The cancellation notice only went out this morning at 10:00 a.m.

    As always, could just be head-faking, but given how few resources Bennett had on her team to organize events (particularly in SK), seems like a stretch.

    By Blogger Prairie Fire, at 7:31 PM  

  • concerned yl: Here's what I wrote back in March about leadership polls:

    I won't post the results from this poll, or any other similar ones, because these are dangerous polls that people should completely ignore. They are based on nothing more than name recognition, and most Canadians know very little about the big names, never mind the hidden jewels of the race

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 7:59 PM  

  • In a strong way, I like the idea of ignoring polls myself.

    Funny enough, however, I'll mention that big Herle one - I'm not going to bother checking (because polls are often lame), but wasn't Bennet surprisingly high on it?

    Anyway, it was good to see a doctor in the race, and it was good to see a bunch of women. Kind of sorry to see one go, but I understand why she would.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 8:18 PM  

  • oh, I don't know CG, I think you should all jump ship and head for the Dryden magic carpet ride.

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 8:18 PM  

  • CG:

    You wrote: "I won't post the results from this poll, or any other similar ones, because these are dangerous polls that people should completely ignore. They are based on nothing more than name recognition, and most Canadians know very little about the big names, never mind the hidden jewels of the race"

    That defies logic. You won't post on polls but you will conduct your own unscientific view of the first ballot results and post on it for a week? fess up- it should read, I won't comment on polls that reflect poorly on Gerard Kennedy. And Kinsella- I used to think he was cool, now he's just a bitter has been. Is he disputing the methodolgy or the sample size?

    And the part about the polls being only 'name recognition' is even more lame. What ballot isn't about name recognition? Canadians and Liberal voters have a higher opinion of Dryden and Rae than they do of Iggy, Kennedy and Brison. And that's not material to the debate? When we could be running an election in 5 months? I am starting to see the ugly green head of self interest creeping into view and guess what- it's what exiled us to opposition. I am so tired of it just being my guy against your guy. Don't smart young Liberals like you realize that this tribalism is what almost destroyed the party? If you are going to play such a active and public role, don't you think you should put the party first?

    By Blogger Put the Party first, at 10:20 PM  

  • put the party first; I posted that back in MARCH. I did not foresee how my candidate of choice would be performing in these polls 6 months later when I posted that. And GK did very well in the Decima poll which came out earlier this week for what it's worth.

    You can click on the link and read my original post for my reasoning. The fact is, in a race with unknown candidates, the general public does not know any of them very well. So people should not be basing their choices on how they are currently viewed by the general public but on on how their performance will be viewed by the public after they are scrutinized and...you know...seen.

    Like I said back then, this is how John Kerry won the democratic nomination which I think we can all agree was a big mistake for the Dems.

    Finally, I would love to hear an explanation about how posting the poll results on my blog would be "putting the party first".

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:04 PM  

  • CG:

    Selective reporting is dangerous and relegates blogs to advertorials. Knowing which candidate has the support of the most Canadian voters is relevant to a party facing an election in less than 6 months. THere just isn't any way around it.

    FYI, if you really had a policy of not reporting on polls, you wouldn't make backdoor reports like: "And GK did very well in the Decima poll which came out earlier this week for what it's worth."

    you seem interested in fairness CG and I respect that. Then ask yourself this: Find me the question from the Decima poll you refer to.

    Here is the release that that poll only tested 5 of the 10 Candidates and excluded Dryden, who won this poll. Is that legitimate? The CP wire story that ran on that poll made no reference to half the Candidates being excluded. What basis did Decima have for including BRison, for example instead of Dryden?

    They teach you in journalism school that you can't report on a poll unless you explain the methodology, the time the poll was taken and the margin of error.
    Nothin in the wire story.

    To make matters worse, Rae, Brison and others have been spinning the poll to everyone who will listen.

    CG: is that fair?

    By Blogger Put the Party first, at 11:28 PM  

  • put the party first;

    1. That's my whole point. These polls are full of problems and are incredibly easy to spin.

    2. I never mentioned the Decima poll in a post. I mentioned in a comment after you said I was ignoring polls where Kennedy did poorly. I pointed out that I ignored a poll where he did alright too.

    3. Kennedy is tied for the largest voter pool in the Decima poll and has the largest in Ontario where he is best known. That's what my "backdoor comment" refered to. But, like I said, I don't put a lot of stock in these polls so I didn't post on that even though it would have been pretty easy to spin in a pro-Kennedy light.

    4. Selective reporting would be picking some polls and excluding others. I've said I think that all these leadership polls are crap so I won't use them (although, I must say I am tempted to post some of the issues which Herle mentions since that stuff might be useful).

    5. Finally, in conclusion, the point is that you can't reach conclusions when you're polling people who aren't informed on the topic you're polling on. The general population doesn't know these people now. It'd be like asking the general population who they think will win the Stanley Cup this year and basing which team you're going to bet on because of what the poll says. Only 5 or 10% of the population likely follows hockey close enough to be well enough informed so the rest of the population will just pick their home town team or whoever won last year. It would be foolish to make your bets based on a poll like that, just like it would be foolish to make your choice in leader based on polls like this.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:53 PM  

  • By Blogger 柯云, at 8:03 PM  

  • By Blogger 柯云, at 1:47 AM  

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