Sunday, September 17, 2006

A Fun-with-Numbers Prediction

Linda Diebel has a run-down on the leadership race today offering "informed speculation to Sunday Star readers, having interviewed some two-dozen analysts and campaign advisers about projections and permutations."

While she seems to have a fairly good grasp on the relative strength of the candidates, I did find this projection of hers in Quebec interesting:
A fun-with-numbers prediction has Dion coming out of Super Weekend with 850 Quebec delegates, Rae 800 and Ignatieff 700.

First of all, let's put aside the fact that Ignatieff is obviously going to win the province. My issue here tends to be with the way Diebel is projecting Quebec's 2350+ delegates. Mainly, that Quebec doesn't have 2350+ delegates.

Consider that 14 delegates elected a riding times 75 ridings equals 1050 delegates. With 2 ex-officio a riding plus Senators, aboriginal delegates, privy councilors and commission delegates, and you can probably add 250 to that total. Hell, let's make it a round 300. That still leaves us roughly 1000 delegates short for the province assuming that the other six candidates get zero delegates. There are a few possibilities to consider here:

a) There are 250 University campus clubs in Quebec
b) There are 1000 women's clubs in Quebec
c) Quebec gets 1000 special delegates due to it's "nation" status

Or maybe, just maybe, Diebel's Quebec projections are a bit off base...

9 Comments:

  • You just don't know how to have fun wtih numbers.

    By Blogger Paul, at 5:21 PM  

  • Linda Diebel is the Star's answer to the Globe's giggling Jane Taber.

    By Blogger RedMapleLeaf, at 6:46 PM  

  • I was unaware that Igniatieff was "obviously going to win Quebec". You are closer to the insiders than most of us. Is the prediction based on Liberal polls?

    By Blogger Psychols, at 7:21 PM  

  • Well, from people I know in Quebec, and what I've heard, I'd be really shocked if Ignatieff didn't win Quebec.

    Might be wrong, but I'm fairly sure.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 7:58 PM  

  • iggy is against kyoto, and for afghanistan. he is in trouble in quebec where they love those two. even if he did hire a dozen regional presidents to organize for him and sell 1100 memberships, he is still in trouble. look for dion and volpe to lead the pack in quebec.

    By Blogger ktr, at 8:14 PM  

  • Linda diebel's stories sound like something out of a student newspaper. I can't believe the Star can't find someone with better insight into the party to cover the race.

    By Blogger Put the Party first, at 9:55 PM  

  • Since when does being a nation get you special treatment CG...

    unless its Leaf Nation and TSN...

    By Blogger Antonio, at 12:29 AM  

  • Diebel is way out to lunch and she can't hold a candle to you CG.

    From what I have seen and as I point out today at Cerberus everyone is seriously underestimating how well Kennedy and Rae have done in Ontario. Rae should take Ontario in fact or come pretty close. Yes, he has done that well, especially in Toronto. In my riding, the membership went from about 600 to 1400 and almost all of the new ones were Rae.

    I think you and some others CG are predicting consistently that Rae will come in at 14-23%, Kennedy 17-23%, Iggy at 20-27% and Dion at 12-18% on the first ballot.

    There is no question that Diebel is out to lunch. Much as I know Iggy is eventually going to win, it is a much tighter race than the pundits want us to believe.

    Ted

    By Blogger Cerberus, at 11:21 AM  

  • The Cyber Menace

    Democratic Space has done an analysis, for what it's worth.

    It has Ignatieff well ahead at 28%, and the rest of the pack is led by Kennedy at 16%, followed closely by Rae and Dion.

    I think the question might eventually become this: What kind of support will Iggy manage to muster on the second ballot, and is there anyone who will become the clear second choice as an alternative to Iggy? And will it be enough to stop Iggy. Will there be a Stop Iggy movement?

    If Dem Space is accurate, Iggy is clearly ahead of the pack, but not enough to win outright. He needs the support of delegates from more than one other camp. Should be fascinating.

    By Blogger The Cyber Menace, at 11:38 AM  

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