Saturday, September 16, 2006

Weekend Update

1. For those wondering why I haven't posted on the David Herle poll (besides the fact that it's a David Herle poll), here's what I wrote back in March about leadership race polls:

But I won't post the results from this poll, or any other similar ones, because these are dangerous polls that people should completely ignore. They are based on nothing more than name recognition, and most Canadians know very little about the big names, never mind the hidden jewels of the race

[snip]

These fictional polls are, in my opinion, one of the worst ways to decide who to support for leadership. Some may point to "the scream" as the reason Howard Dean lost the Democratic primary in 2004 but, in reality, it was because of polls which showed John Kerry would do the best against George Bush in hypothetical elections. Democrats, desperate to beat Bush, decided to put their faith in hypothetical election polls and jumped to Kerry, not realizing what a dreadful candidate he was.



I suppose the Mithrandir poll is good news for Dryden but I'd be more excited about this than this if I were him.


2. Obvious news we already knew.


3. More obvious news we already knew.


4. I'm curious to see the details of Kennedy's national education strategy. Education is one of the most important investments any level of government can make and it's about time we saw the federal government take it seriously.


5. I'd always kind of suspected the NDP would take the Parkdale by-election so I wouldn't read too much into their win. Parkdale has a long NDP history and the Dippers usually perform well in by-elections.


6. In case no one has seen it yet, Lib News has the best link round-up of Liberal leadership news on the net.


7. Gerard and Martha have new websites up.

16 Comments:

  • This appears to be spin:

    Parkdale has a long NDP history.

    I believe Parkdale has previously only gone NDP once at the provincial level (1990) -- though, I stand to be corrected. At the federal level, I think it only went NDP this year.

    You may have to look elsewhere for an explanation as to why the Liberals lost the riding.

    Perhaps check the sidebar of your blog.

    By Blogger Simon Pole, at 12:16 AM  

  • Maybe I'm wrong, but I always thought that education was a provincial responsibility. Personally, I think the federal government should try and take care of their own responsibilities rather than make more deals with the provinces that will inevitably cause more first ministers meetings where the premiers cry poverty and demand yet more money.

    By Blogger Andrew Smith, at 12:21 AM  

  • calgary grit
    i do agree that herle's poll is based more on name recognition than anything else...but you are absolutely incorrect on the john kerry dean comparison...howard dean would have gotten is ass kicked probably worse than mondale did...come on...dean as current dnc chairman is worse than last guy.....

    as for the liberal race...i have read many of your postings and to say the least quite good...as for your support for kennedy he has been the biggest dis't at all the candidates - to bad...what you see is what you get afer all and really been quite lacking to say the least
    i am still shocked that you think howard dean would have had a chance against bush... that is almost laughable..rove and bush would have stood in glee to have dean ...similiar to mondale and dukakis...lefties never learn in the states...i hope the democrats can capture the house and senate but even that loooks difficult...

    By Blogger Skeena Liberal, at 12:32 AM  

  • Two comments:

    1) I like the thought of Ken Dryden, but am not going to vote for him.

    The reality seems much less than the thought.

    Dryden's name would open lots of doors for Liberal candidates on, lets say, the prairies, if he went, for example, to every Legion hall in the region.

    But Liberals still wouldn't win in Calgary.

    2) I love the chunk of the URL for the Tory candidate qualification story.

    national-need-brains-strategy-tory-candidate-party-official

    I think there is a Bugs Bunny cartoon in there somewhere.

    By Blogger CfSR, at 12:58 AM  

  • Clicking #3 made the gingerale I'd just sipped go all over my screen. Thanks for the LOL!

    And say, moving Carolyn's 6 up to Bob's 17 would put him atop Dryden. Ooooh, now there's an image! ROFL!

    By Blogger berlynn, at 2:35 AM  

  • Dryden has one advantage that none of the other candidates have - no one really hates him and the public at large is pretty positive of about educated and well intentioned hockey hall of fame goalies. He could probably go quite a ways to rebuilding the credibility and integrity of the Liberal Party. On the other hand, I don't think he'd win an election. He makes Harper look dynamic.

    By Blogger Chris, at 5:42 AM  

  • Ken Dryden can't speak a lick of French and makes Stephen Harper look like Robin Williams.

    I'm saying that as someone who has nothing but respect for Dryden's policies and accomplishments. Like Robert Stanfield, he's just not cut out for big-league politics, where quick comebacks and 30-second soundbites count for more than thoughtful policies and solid accomplishments.

    He would be eviscerated by Harper, Duceppe and Layton in the English debate, and there really wouldn't even be a point in showing up for the French one.

    As an NDP voter who desperately hopes for a Liberal victory in the next election (or at least no Con majority), I'm leaning towards hoping Dion can emerge as the anyone-but-Iggy candidate and take the thing.

    I'm not one of the "curse the ground Bob Rae walked on" types, but I fear the Conservatives will make him the focus of the election campaign and the NDP will once again be only too eager to help them, not yet having grasped that having more seats in a Parliament where they have no power or influence really does nothing to advance NDP policies.

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 10:06 AM  

  • are you/liberals/kennedy proposing that we have a constitutional ammendment so that the Federal Gov't can dabble in Provincial areas of responsibility - Education ??


    I thought it was just iggy who wanted to play "change the constitution ??

    By Blogger Fred :), at 10:50 AM  

  • Simon pole is correct. My dear home-riding went federally for the NDP only once (2006), though provincially High Park and High Park-Swansea (the western part of the riding) went NDP from 1967-1981. As well, in 1948 a CCF'er defeated incumbent premier George Drew (who won the provincial election but lost his own seat) over the temperance issue (anti-liquor ordinances were on the books till 1999).

    It is the riding where Mike Harris was born, where David Miller served as councillor and where Tony Clement got his start in an unsuccessful run for municipal politics.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 11:46 AM  

  • Canada is one of the only major industrialized nations that does not have a national education strategy. In an age when China and India are spitting out P.H.D's at a rate that is hard to belive it is easy to say that education is one of the most important issues facing Canada in the coming decades.

    A national strategy on higher education and maybe even some kind of standards to ensure that the quality of a high school education is the same in a rural Manitoba school as it is in suburban Montreal is something that could be done through First Ministers Conferences and not through a constitional change.

    Gerard Kennedy during a Federal Election appealing to Canadians from coast to coast on the need for universial early childhood education, standards and talking about making university and trade schools affordable and accessable to all Canadians would have an issue that would appeal to Canadians across idealogical lines.

    By Blogger Manitoba Liberal, at 1:11 PM  

  • 1. I believe the national education strategy would deal with early learning and post-sec education, two areas where the federal government is already involved. Health care is provincial too, but the federal government gets involved.

    2. Simon Pole; Parkdale was Bob Rae's NDP seat (not sure what it was before that, but I know it wasn't Liberal) and it's NDP federally. Another reason it switched is because it went from a popular high profile Liberal to an unknown candidate. Also, governments in power who aren't exceedingly popular usually do poorly in by-election while the NDP does well since they can focus their limited resources on one riding.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:16 PM  

  • Thanks for the correction, CG.

    It looks like at the provincial level at least, Parkdale is historically up for grabs between the three major parties.

    I agree the Liberals had weak candidates (Watons provincially, Bulte federally); and the NDP had two very strong ones: DiNovo and Nash. The "winds of change" were also blowing against the government.

    I don't think you can escape the fact though that the conduct of the campaign in both cases influenced the outcome. In Bulte's case it was accepting entertainment industry financing, and in Watson's case it was the blog-based negative campaign against DiNovo.

    Perhaps a more interesting topic for discussion is the effect of blogs in both cases.

    Bulte's defeat was no doubt hastened by the attention the high profile Boing Boing blog brought. In DiNovo's case a blog-based smear campaign quickly spun out of control.

    Perhaps there's a lesson there for the pro spinners.

    By Blogger Simon Pole, at 4:54 PM  

  • I think the question should be whether or not we should be involved in the provincial areas of responsibility.

    Its ironic that the party which brought us the consititution would be so eager to violate it.

    By Blogger SouthernOntarioan, at 12:27 AM  

  • You mean... the Tories? The Liberals certainly weren't uniquely responsible for bringing us the BNA Act.

    By Blogger Josh Gould, at 11:18 AM  

  • Parkdale was Bob Rae's NDP seat

    That is not correct. Bob Rae represented what is essentially now York South-Weston. While Gerard Kennedy ran and won in York South in 1996, the ridings were redrawn to match the federal boundaries in time for the provincial election of 1999. When he ran for re-election in what was then renamed Parkdale-High Park (the former High Park-Swansea riding which had been held by Conservative MPP Derwyn Shea), he was essentially running in a brand new riding.

    Bob Rae never ran anywhere close to Parkdale, in either of his federal or provincial incarnations.

    By Blogger DM, at 5:59 PM  

  • I consider everyone ought to browse on it.

    By Anonymous гид в барселоне, at 3:20 AM  

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