Wednesday, November 07, 2007

SaskWatch

THE MORNING AFTER UPDATE:

Sask Party: 52.2%, 37 seats
NDP: 36.2%, 21 seats
Liberals: 9.3%, 0 seats
Greens: 2.0%, 0 seats

And, for those paying attention, the Progressive Conservatives (812 votes) edged out the Western Independence Party (569 votes), and the Marijuana Party (508 votes) for fifth. Yet again, the Marijuana Party fails to mobilize it's vote...

So, for your "2007 Election Watch" wrap-up, that leaves three freshman governments who were all re-elected (albeit with Charest on academic probation) this year. Sophomore Gary Doer was also awarded a much deserved third term. However, a pair of long time governments with few faults were tossed out despite the good economic times.

Barring a surprise, that should do it for 2007. For 2008, expect Alberta to vote in mid-to-late March and keep an eye on the minority governments in Nova Scotia, Quebec and, of course, Ottawa.

As for Saskatchewan, this was clearly a case of "change for change's sake". Lorne Calvert has accomplish the rare feat of being defeated at the top of his game and he can certainly be proud of all he accomplished and the prosperity he leaves his province in. Brad Wall deserves full marks for moderating the Sask Party and running a solid campaign. The man clearly is the new "golden boy" of provincial politics, although he should remember that the last "golden boy" was run out of town in New Brunswick last year after two terms in power. As for the provincial Liberals, major soul searching is clearly needed after a result that is impossible to spin positively.

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The results are coming in from Saskatchewan and if one or two seats shift, the PR people are going to be going apesh*t!

Pop Vote:

SP 51.5%
NDP 36.2%
Lib 9.9%
Green 2.0%


Seats:

SP 30
NDP 27

The NDP are up in a few tight races so I'd expect the final win margin to be by a good half dozen seats.


UPDATE: As for the Liberals, David Karwacki is in a tight 3 way race...still too close to call.


UPDATE: Both the CBC and Globe have projected a Sask Party majority. Not a massive majority by any means, but a majority nevertheless.

And good on Brad Wall. Even though my leanings would certainly be towards the Liberal or NDP camp in Saskatchewan, he's done a good job as leader and is a very talented politician. He's fully deserving of the win.


UPDATE: 33 to 25 now, with the popular vote holding steady. Might I just say, it's quite interesting to see a long term prairie government tossed out in the midst of an economic boom. Quite interesting indeed...

Labels:

14 Comments:

  • Is my computer just busted or is Sask-Meewasin still at 12/48 polls at 9:27. Get on with it!

    By Blogger KC, at 10:27 PM  

  • Dissapointing that Karwacki was unable to capitalize and gain some seats, it even appears that the Liberals are going to lose a significant vote share, down to ~10% from ~15% in 2003.

    Here's hoping there's an upset in Saskatoon-Meewasin, but it doesn't look stellar.

    By Blogger SA22C, at 10:27 PM  

  • NM... The CBC flash thing seems to be not keeping up. Close race!

    By Blogger KC, at 10:35 PM  

  • Yeah, CBC still at 12/48 in Karwacki's seat even though they seem to be updating everywhere else.

    Dissapointing night for the Sask Libs if Karwacki doesn't win...

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:06 PM  

  • Actually, I heard on CBC that Sask tends to switch govts during good economic times.

    There truly is something strange about that province. They refuse to switch time zones like everyone else, nor governments.

    By Blogger Ward of Canada, at 11:23 PM  

  • I think the fact the NDP was running for a fifth term might be part of. It seems for whatever reason, pretty much anywhere in Canada (except Alberta) will usually toss a party from office after four terms. After all the economy was very strong in Canada in 2006, yet the Liberals still lost and they too were running for their fifth term.

    By Blogger Miles Lunn, at 11:56 PM  

  • Miles, Ontario had the Tories for 12 (technically 13 if you count Frank Miller's brief tenure) consecutive terms; BC elected Socreds for 7 consecutive terms (1952-1972); Joey Smallwood in Newfoundland had 6 (1949-1971); in Saskatchewan the NDP had 5 consecutive terms (so it wouldn't be unprecedented) from '44-'63, and the Liberals had 6 from '05-'28.

    So at least half of Canada's provinces, and the federal government (1963-1984, minus 9 months; 1935-1957) have had long periods of sustained one-party rule, or something like dominant party systems.

    What is interesting and so might merit study is that most of these cases occured in the postwar era, and none outside of Alberta were post-1980's.

    PS: I feel sorry for Karwacki. I have a soft spot for him, ever since his overly detailed platform in the last election called for special spiked shoes for seniors, so they could walk on ice.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 9:19 AM  

  • Joey Smallwood in Newfoundland had 6 (1949-1971)

    The PCs under Moores and Peckford won five consecutive elections (1972, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1985) and actually won the pop.vote in 1989 even as they lost the election to Clyde Wells.

    By Blogger WJM, at 11:11 AM  

  • I did a quick wikipedia check and the Nova Scotia Tories won 10 straight majorities and governed for 43 straight years from '82 to '25.

    Ontario PCs won 12 terms (although not all majorities) and governed for 42 straight years.

    The Alberta PCs have won 10 straight majorities and are at 36 years and counting in power, which I believe puts them third on the list, just ahead of their predecesors, the Alberta Socreds who also had 36 years.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:31 PM  

  • I think you meant to say that "Canada" may have an election in 2008. The mayor in Ottawa is unpredictable, but I don't think he will be pushing for an election so soon after he won last November.

    By Blogger Wheatsheaf, at 1:36 PM  

  • Grit says: Might I just say, it's quite interesting to see a long term prairie government tossed out in the midst of an economic boom. Quite interesting indeed...

    Keith says: Alberta? Don't count on it.

    By Blogger Keith Richmond, at 6:59 PM  

  • But it's not outside the realm of possibility that the PC's might only scrape by with a minority.

    It's *possible*.

    Anyway, I don't see Rodney MacDonald's Tories clinging to a tenuous minority government much longer, given that his personal and their party numbers have remained behind the NDP since, well, the last election.

    By Blogger Josh Gould, at 7:41 PM  

  • Keith says: Alberta? Don't count on it.

    Why not? The majority of Albertans didn't vote PC last provincial election, Stelmac's not popular.

    It could happen.

    By Blogger Nastyboy, at 7:45 PM  

  • Hi CG,

    Karwacki's loss is certainly disappointing, but I was ready for it. There isn't much time for soul searching - the rebuilding process, and it is big and long overdue, must begin right away in order to prevent a major loss of human capital. The biggest mistake made after the 2003 election by the Sask Liberals was to do nothing after the election, and for the following 4 years until it was election time again.

    Wall's victory over Calvert during an unprecedented economic boom comes as no surprise to me. Devine swept to power 25 years ago during a similar boom. When the Saskatchewan economy is in equilibrium or in a rare recession, voters cling to the NDP, the party they trust. But when the economic is surging, people across the province become more confidant, and are more open to change in government. It is a mindset that emerged out of the Great Depression. People in Saskatchewan are generally fearful of forces beyond their control, and that is why my province has a large public sector with many Crown Corporations, many Cooperatives and Credit Unions, etc.

    By Blogger John Murney, at 5:07 AM  

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