Monday, October 29, 2007

SaskWatch

There are only 9 days to go in the Saskatchewan provincial election and due to a complete absence of any polling data, there's actually a bit of intrigue around the whole thing. I tend to agree with the common concensus that the NDP have hit a wall and the Sask Party is marching to a healthy majority on the strength of their charismatic leader. Look for the Liberals to increase their seat total as well...at the very least, it won't be going down. Here are a few other random notes from the election trail:


-The complete NDP platform has been released and the highlight has been a universal drug plan. Given rumblings that the Liberals might eventually put something like this on the table federally, it will be interesting to see how it plays.


-The Sask Party have released their crime platform, claiming that crime has skyrocketed under the NDP government. Of course, given that their candidate in Saskatoon Northwest has been arrested 20 to 30 times for things ranging from drug dealing to money laundering, it would be unfair to peg the entire thing on Calvert.


-The Liberals, meanwhile, are promising big tax cuts.


-The NDP have had a candidate Klanderized. The Sask Party are also down a man.


-Finally, John Murney has, far and away, the best Sask election coverage anywhere on the net. Constituency profiles and analysis of police positions...for all you saskophiles out there, it's the place to go.


UPDATE: Ask and ye shall receive. We've finally got poll numbers. Sask Party at 50%, NDP at 35%, Liberals at 10%.

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7 Comments:

  • A poll just came out today in the Saskatoon Star Phoenix putting the Saskatchewan Party at 50% and NDP at 35%. While things could change, I think it is pretty safe to say the Sask Party will win. For one, winning 5 back to back wins is pretty much unheard of outside of Alberta, so although the norm in Alberta, people elsewhere tend to feel any party being in power too long is not good. Even I suspect most Albertans feel the same way but because Alberta is more conservative than every other province this could only happen with two right wing parties provincially.

    By Blogger Miles Lunn, at 9:20 PM  

  • The David Karwacki party doesn't even rate in Saskatchewan.

    Face it, Mr. Grit you may as well sit this one out. You don't have a horse in this race.

    By Blogger Okhropir Rumiani, at 9:45 PM  

  • Initial pre-election speculation was that Saskatchewan may return to its tradition of an electoral blow-out for the governing party (as in 1971, 1982 & 1991) ... but this race is far closer then many expected.

    New Democrats seem to be holding a lot of their former 30 seats and the Sask Party still unable to make any sizable inroads into urban seats in Regina. They seem to be doing somewhat better in Saskatoon but it is hard to tell if that will translate into seats. At dissolution there was only a 2 seat difference between the two major parties (NDP 30 - SP 28). It may end up with the reverse result - but it does not look like a massacre is going to occur.

    Why? ... Calvert has mounted a fairly decent campaign with balance between the positives and unavoidable negatives of the 'free market' Saskies.

    The Saskatchewan Party, on the other hand, has been pretty disappointing for those who anticipated a big bold visionary statement and plan for 'a new Saskatchewan in the new West'!
    Wall and company seemed content to just let the electorate 'defeat' the NDP - he would just stand back and move in to take occupancy of the government benches as a result. This may turn out to have been a huge tactical error for the Saskies. Their low key, miniscule promises campaign has everyone yawning.

    Miles lunn points out todays poll from the Saskatchewan Weekly Newspaper Association (not overly NDP friendly but let's give them the benefit of doubt) - they polled about 650 persons - and the Sask Party has 50%. I temper that by pointing out that in many of the rural seats, they poll at about 60 - 70% so that result is very regional.

    The Liberals .... I have no idea what seats you believe they are going to win .... Karwacki is the only Lib of 58 who has a shot at winning his seat. The rest, .... no way.

    Leaders debate tomorrow night!

    By Blogger leftdog, at 9:49 PM  

  • This is what your fellow Edmontonians think of Calvert incidentally:

    http://youtube.com/watch?v=TnTJE_RqUfk

    http://youtube.com/watch?v=MIiV076LMA4

    By Blogger Okhropir Rumiani, at 9:51 PM  

  • Thanks for the plug, CG!

    Watch for at least one Sask Liberal to be elected here on November 7th. The polling numbers don't tell the whole story about the Liberal vote...support for the Grits is negligible in the rural areas, so 10% provincewide is actually concentrated in Regina, Saskatoon, Prince Albert, and to a lesser degree, Moose Jaw. This means the Liberals are probably running at over 20% in the major cities, and are thus competitive seatwise there.

    By Blogger John Murney, at 10:43 PM  

  • I think Karwacki has run a pretty good campaign and his coverage in the press has been largely positive. If the Liberals don't gain at least one seat in this election, I would be shocked and amazed. I like Karwacki, I just don't know what its going to take for Liberals to make inroads in Saskatchewan.

    By Blogger Sean Cummings, at 10:08 AM  

  • CG, that was a really LOW BLOW attacking Serge Leclerc, who's running for the SaskParty.

    If you knew anything about his story, you'd know he is a 100% changed and reformed man... AND FULLY PARDONED BY CHRETIEN HIMSELF.

    Take a look at the man's life story before you critize him... you took a shot at the wrong guy CG.

    By Blogger Christian Conservative, at 10:30 AM  

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