Monday, March 07, 2011

(Not) Confidence motion coming this week?

I heard the rumour from three different people over the weekend, and it has exploded today thanks to a Hill Times story - there's a possibility we could be into an election campaign by week's end.

The cause of this is an obscure parliamentary procedure, allowing MPs to move a vote of non-confidence after a point of privilege ruling, so long as the cats behind Parliament Hill see their shadow that same morning. Or something like that.

Really, outside of Peter Miliken and Kady O'Malley, it's unlikely anyone in Canada really understands the procedural somersaults involved. And the procedure isn't important here - the result is. Here's the result:

1. Depending when the speaker rules, we'd be into an election campaign a week or two earlier than previously expected. With Jack Layton still on crutches, this leads me to wonder if the NDP won't support the government on any Liberal motion, at least until the budget. You couldn't really fault them for that.

2. The election trigger would not be the budget. While election triggers are rarely talked about for more than a few days, this would save the opposition from having to vote against a budget which could contain tax cuts or other pre-election treats. Rather, in Bev Oda's honour, they'd be able to craft a "not confidence" motion which focuses on Harper's contempt of Parliament.

The downside to this is that the budget may very well be vulnerable to attack, while the speaker's ruling does indirectly involve Harper's "tough on crime" legislation. So it's not a slam dunk by any means.

At the very least, if the Liberals are considering this, it should be taken as a sign they're ready to go. So, as we've been saying for a month, it all comes down to Jack Layton.



  • I say it's better for the Liberals to go on the budget. Flaherty will have another massive deficit. Make that the issue.

    By Anonymous TDD, at 2:00 p.m.  

  • No way, if the Grits want to avoid getting slaughtered make it about ethics and accountability.

    Paul Martin had it all over Stephen Harper in 2005 when the question was about Canada's economic management. Harper had it all over Martin when the question was turned around to ethics and accountability.

    Now that the Harper Government® has become worse than even the dirty Liberal governments of yesteryear, ethics and accountability is where Harper is most vulnerable.

    However, the LPC needs to reveal a solid and serious accountability and democratic reform platform really soon. And they need to mean it this time, otherwise it's just Red Book v2.0.

    By Blogger Tof KW, at 2:20 p.m.  

  • CG - Do you have any idea WHY the Liberals want an election? Usually parties down by 15% in the polls aren't this excited to have an election.

    By Anonymous Deb, at 3:04 p.m.  

  • The Liberals are ready to go. Hhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:53 p.m.  

  • I love the cats' shadows bit

    Couln't make breakfast, hope it went well

    By Anonymous JBV, at 7:16 p.m.  

  • I bet $5 no election

    By Anonymous Jbv, at 9:16 p.m.  

  • A thought... remember that pre-election ad blitz that the Tories were planning on unleashing to target the ethnic vote that was leaked? Calling one now nicely renders that moot no?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:57 a.m.  

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  • I conduct research on the characteristics of election campaigns. As for me, these elections did not differ much in anything and nothing new was introduced.

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