Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Your Daily Seat Projections

Today's vote numbers include the new Nanos, Ekos, Angus, and Forum polls:

Popular Vote (change since yesterday in brackets):

CPC: 36.3% (-1.5)
NDP: 26.6% (+3.5)
Lib: 23.8% (-1.5)
Bloc: 6.9% (-0.4)
Green: 5.5% (+0.4)

As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts in regional support have historically transferred to individual ridings, and the chance the pollsters could just miss the mark, like in some previous elections.

This is the only simulation model for Canadian seat totals, and I feel this gives it a huge advantage. Other models will either undercount NDP seats in Quebec by showing them as a strong second everywhere, or they'll overcount by projecting them as a slim first everywhere. This model recognizes they'll win some of those "close seconds" and lose some of those "close firsts"...AND it recognizes that a 30-point swing won't be uniform across the entire province. Yes, it means I can only peg the NDP seat range at between 15 and 44 seats in Quebec - but that's all we really CAN say at this point, given the public polling data available.

CPC: 138 to 163 seats (mean: 150.4)
NDP: 54 to 86 seats (mean: 69.3)
Lib: 46 to 72 seats (mean: 58.9)
Bloc: 17 to 40 seats (mean: 28.5)
Ind: 0.9

Odds of Tory majority: 26% (down from 54% yesterday)

With our first batch of post-Easter polling data to feast on, there has been a lot of movement since yesterday. The NDP have jumped close to 20 seats, into second place. The Liberals and Conservatives are each down 5 seats, with the Bloc down 10.

(short methodology, long methodology)

24 Comments:

  • harper minority government. Layton as Leader of the Opposition. Nobody is a coalition builder.

    Should be interesting.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 5:30 PM  

  • Bye bye Libbies!@#E@#@#

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:40 PM  

  • Can you post the provincial tallies? I remember you had done it previously.

    By Blogger Bailey, at 5:42 PM  

  • Thanks for these, Grit. I have more confidence in yours than anyone else's.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:43 PM  

  • Speaking from a statistical background of my own, I have faith in your methodology.

    And yet, I'd have to see this to believe it.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 5:44 PM  

  • Every progressive Canadian should be happy about these numbers. Anything that reduces the chances of a Conservative majority is good news for Canada.

    By Anonymous MPAVictoria, at 5:45 PM  

  • Can you give us a top ten list of your readers that predicted the highest number of NDP seats?

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 5:45 PM  

  • MPAVictoria:
    Based on the past five years, and their current platform/budget, suggesting that the Conservatives aren't progressive is like saying that Mark Messier was a lousy scorer.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 5:47 PM  

  • Bailey - I'll post regional breaks tomorrow or Friday. I also plan to go into the provinces in a bit more depth over the weekend to point out some of the ridings that might not swing, even if they're projected too (i.e. strong incumbents and that sort of thing).

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 5:52 PM  

  • Robert all I can say is that you and I must have very different ideas of what "progressive" means. My version of the word doesn't include excessive corporate tax cuts, 30 billion dollars spent on fighter jets, cuts to planned parenthood, cuts to federal grants to cultural events like the gay pride parade in toronto, the destruction of the gun registry, or ignoring Parliament's requests for documents. None of those things seem "progressive" to me.

    By Anonymous MPAVictoria, at 5:53 PM  

  • What I mean by that is that Messier was a great scorer, but not compared to the Oilers other options like Gretzky and Kurri.

    I have an American friend, a staunch Democrat, who saw the Conservative platform and thought they were our crazy left-wing party.

    Take it back in time even to 1993 and it makes the Red Book look like something Bush would write.

    The fact that a platform and record like that is considered non-progressive is a testament to just how progressive a nation we are.

    I'm not voting for him, but is it really a loss to have the most progressive government in history, but not quite as progressive as it could have been?

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 5:53 PM  

  • RV - Highest predicted NDP seat total was 42 by "DL". Your prediction of 35 was the 13th highest.

    I'll be perfectly honest, in my election pool I entered, I had the NDP slapped down under 30. Didn't see this coming at all.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 5:55 PM  

  • In fairness to Harper, he hasn't governed from the extreme right.

    What he'd do with a majority is debatable, but it's hard to argue that he's turned Canada into a Republican utopia.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 5:56 PM  

  • Those things may be true, but they're trivial. My definition of non-progressive would mean restricting abortion, banning gay marriage, cuts to health care funding (including privatization), pensions, and education. In most cases, he's done the opposite.

    As for tax cuts, is the gap between "excessive" and "progressive" really just 1.5%?

    Given Canada's peace-keeping efforts, and its work protecting the most impoverished nations and most vulnerable environments, wouldn't defense spending be considered progressive?

    And ethical abuses and corruption are neither progressive or non-progressive.

    Even if I were convinced that giving a farmer extra paperwork and bills because of a gun crime in a city far away is somehow progressive, it wouldn't cause beads of sweat to appear on my brow.

    I'll admit that cuts to planned parenthood and delegating funding for cultural events to provincial or municipal jurisdictions isn't progressive, but I'm not sweating until an actual key social program is cut, or key right removed. Are you? Really?

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 6:02 PM  

  • What he'd do with a majority is debatable

    Good point. But seriously, it's been five years. At what point do we admit that a majority may shift us right, but stop short of drifting gays out to sea on icebergs while we shoot guns in the air?

    I'm not voting for the guy, but it has nothing to do with being scared of him. His policies aren't non-progressive, they're just BAD.

    Plus, he's an unethical liar.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 6:11 PM  

  • "restricting abortion, banning gay marriage, cuts to health care funding (including privatization)"

    Robert if you look at his past comments and writings these are all things Harper supports.

    " In most cases, he's done the opposite."

    I would like a citation of Harper being an advocate for gay marriage and a woman's right to choose.

    "As for tax cuts, is the gap between "excessive" and "progressive" really just 1.5%?"

    No but cutting already low corporate tax rates surely isn't progressive.

    "Given Canada's peace-keeping efforts, and its work protecting the most impoverished nations and most vulnerable environments, wouldn't defense spending be considered progressive?"

    To say 30 Billion dollar fighter jets are not the best investment for peacekeeping would be an understatement. How about investing in ground troops trained for peacekeeping or disaster response? In either case I would rather see the bulk of that money invested into infrastructure or education.

    "And ethical abuses and corruption are neither progressive or non-progressive."

    Conceded, though attacking democratic institutions and refusing to take media questions is something I would consider unprogressive

    "Even if I were convinced that giving a farmer extra paperwork and bills because of a gun crime in a city far away is somehow progressive, it wouldn't cause beads of sweat to appear on my brow.

    I'll admit that cuts to planned parenthood and delegating funding for cultural events to provincial or municipal jurisdictions isn't progressive, but I'm not sweating until an actual key social program is cut, or key right removed. Are you? Really?"

    If Harper's behavior in government doesn't make you sweat then you and I have very different ideas of what kind of country Canada should be. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

    By Anonymous MPAVictoria, at 7:45 PM  

  • I'm confused by the "fascist right-wing" riot act so many read on Harper... as a progressive vegetarian marijuana-loving queer, I don't think he's been injurious or disrespectful at all. Sure, he's not the PM I would be, but who is?

    I don't fault Harper for being an extreme right-wing ideologue.

    He does appear to have some control and temper and honesty issues, though..... as Robert pointed out already.

    If Harper's behavior in government doesn't make you sweat
    Actually, I think Robert has been pretty clear that Harper's behavior in government *does* bother him.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 8:41 PM  

  • I like Harper, he is not scary, and he would provide a stable four years if he gets a majority. We need that.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:47 PM  

  • Any thoughts on how Jack will react if all this positive seat count for him does not happen and he is not leader of the opposition, and PMSH has a majority govt.

    By Blogger maryT, at 9:23 PM  

  • I apologise if I've beaten this to death. Briefly:

    NON-PROGRESSIVE: Talk pro-life, vote pro-life, pass legislation to restrict abortion.
    HARPER: May be pro-life but votes pro-choice, includes that in his platform, and rarely mentions it. Just like Martin/Chretien.

    NON-PROGRESSIVE: Implements private health care delivery, two-tier system.
    HARPER: Mused about it ten years ago, but never since, consistently strengthened public health care, to record funding.

    NON-PROGRESSIVE: Would have a toothless army and leave it to the US to determine when force should be applied.
    HARPER: Got jets to defend the Arctic, and make sure Canada has its own voice internationally.

    NON-PROGRESSIVE: Complete control of the media.
    HARPER (and OBAMA): Wouldn't talk to certain media for a little while because their coverage was dishonest.

    I don't think we disagree at all on what kind of country Canada should be. I think we disagree on what Harper has been doing. Or, rather the extent.

    I've probably overstated my case. I feel sick to my stomach defending the guy, please dont' make me do it anymore.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 9:50 PM  

  • "I've probably overstated my case. I feel sick to my stomach defending the guy, please dont' make me do it anymore."

    http://xkcd.com/386/


    In all seriousness Robert you are too smart to think that we need those 30-40 billion dollar jets to defend the arctic. And Harper has had plenty to say on gay rights and abortion in the past. I see no reason to believe that the leopard has changed his spots. Finally if you think that the media is biased against the Conservatives I have a bridge to sell you. Last election cycle the vast majority of major daily newspapers (i believe 14 out of 16. I can find the exact figures if you want) endorsed the conservatives despite the fact the 62 percent of the public voted for other parties. As we speak the Globe and Mail is busy blaming the black death and last centuries bad harvest on the NDP.

    Anyway I appreciate that you are not interested in defending Harper and it is completely acceptable that we have different views on what "progressive" means.

    By Anonymous MPAVictoria, at 10:59 PM  

  • did the innovative research poll come out after you did your analysis, or is there some other reason (sample size etc.) why you have left it out.

    I am a tory, but this is my favorite election spot.

    Thanks

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:42 PM  

  • Anon - I'll need to double check my spreadsheet, but I believe I included it in yesterday's update. So, yes, it has been factored in.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:34 AM  

  • Re: NDP surge

    So this is the result of all those attack ads: Not a majority, but a weaker mintory against the NDP. Bravo.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:22 AM  

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