Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Your Daily Seat Projections

Given the number of polls we can expect this week, I'll offer a quick seat projection update each afternoon around this time. For today:

Popular Vote (change since yesterday in brackets):

CPC: 37.8% (-0.8)
Lib: 25.3% (-0.4)
NDP: 23.1% (+1.1)
Bloc: 7.3% (-0.3)
Green: 5.5% (+0.4)

As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how historical shifts traditionally transfer to individual ridings, and the chance that the pollsters could just miss the mark, like in some previous elections.

CPC: 143 to 168 seats (mean: 155.3)
Lib: 51 to 76 seats (mean:63.7)
NDP: 39 to 64 seats (mean: 50.2)
Bloc: 27 to 47 seats (mean: 37.9)
Ind: 1

Odds of Tory majority: 54% (down from 69% yesterday)

Since yesterday, the NDP are up 8 seats, with the Bloc down 4.5, the Tories down 3, and the Liberals down 0.5 - Quebec remains the wild card with the model projecting an average 15.2 seats for them there, but with a 95% confidence interval of 6 to 28 seats. So it's still very much up in the air.

If you're looking for an "on the ground" assessment of how the seats might break in Quebec, Fact Checker offers a detailed synopsis here.

(short methodology, long methodology)



  • The junk poll from Ekos is having its intended effect, this is the largest swing in the projections yet.

    By Blogger Andre, at 4:08 p.m.  

  • "So it's still very much up in the air."

    Right! The extremists have only a 54% chance of a majority.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 4:28 p.m.  

  • I like this projection - the mean estimates are almost exactly what I get.

    By Blogger Election Watcher, at 4:31 p.m.  

  • JimTan.. I think you misread the post. The extremists are projected to only obtain 39 to 62 seats - not enough for even a minority by any stretch.

    By Blogger Robert G. Harvie, Q.C., at 7:05 p.m.  

  • According to Robert Fife's twitter feed, the new Angus Reid poll has
    CPC 35
    NDP 30
    LPC 22

    Ekos may well be wrong, of course. But it's not alone.

    By Blogger ajbeecroft, at 8:10 p.m.  

  • This projection includes Ekos and Environics, but given the large sample on Ekos and how much more recent it is than everything else, it certainly is having a big impact on the projections.

    Though that ARS one will certainly pull the NDP up even more in tomorrow's update.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:50 p.m.  

  • "JimTan.. I think you misread the post. The extremists are projected to only obtain 39 to 62 seats - not enough for even a minority by any stretch."

    Great! One set of extremists are the government. The other bunch of extremists lead the opposition.

    Sounds like the states?

    By Blogger JimTan, at 2:49 a.m.  

  • Desperate calls for volunteers in my riding TODAY.

    Meanwhile, Elections Canada says that a record turnout for advance polls. What can that mean?

    And, the Greens say that Elisabeth May is leading in her riding!


    By Blogger JimTan, at 2:57 a.m.  

  • By Blogger Unknown, at 9:59 p.m.  

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