Thursday, October 16, 2008

Some Facts To Consider

Obama +2 in North Dakota - a state a Democrat hasn't won since 1964

Obama and McCain tied in North Carolina - a state a Democrat hasn't won since 1976

Obama up by 3 in Virginia - a state a Democrat hasn't won since 1964

Obama and McCain tied in Indiana - a state a Democrat hasn't win since 1976


Liberal Party of Canada Seat Totals in Western Canada
1993: 27
1997: 15
2000: 14
2004: 14
2006: 14
2008: 7


Percentage of Liberal Party Seats in Toronto: 36%
Percentage of Canadian Alliance Seats in Alberta, circa 2000: 35%

Liberal Popular Vote in Four Western Provinces: 19%, 11%, 15%, 19%
Canadian Alliance Popular Vote in Ontario, circa 2000: 24%

Seats in Ontario: 106
Seats in Western Canada: 94
Seats in Quebec: 75


Discuss.

29 Comments:

  • Maybe Dion should have said "Yezz we can" some more.

    PS: I really feel sorry for Dion. It has to hurt, to get the worst result in Liberal party history, or to be the first Liberal since Blake to not be PM. I can't imagine how it must be to wake up one morning and say "I can be PM", and then to lose it all. He is a good man, bad party leader. I think anybody that shares my sentiments should extend a standing offer to Dion. If we ever run into him, we should buy him a drink (I believe rum and coke has some significance for him).

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 8:54 AM  

  • 7? Gore held New Mexico in 2000!

    Personally, I think Dion should get a second shot. Harper's first run didn't go that well either. And if one boring nerd can do it (from the perspective of an American), I don't see why the other can't.

    By Blogger Dyna, at 9:27 AM  

  • Who won you little quiz that you asked at the beginning of the campaign?

    By Blogger James Curran, at 9:33 AM  

  • James - I've got the results tallied and will post them tonight.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:09 AM  

  • It's the message.

    Obama has formulated several different ways to communicate his goals, and to draw people in to those goals.

    Whatever we think of the policies this time 'round, can we agree there was no coherent narrative? Nothing anyone could sink their teeth into?

    By Blogger Jesse, at 10:14 AM  

  • Great! All the Liberal party needs is for the Con's to get involved in a moronic war and oversee an incredible financial/economic/fiscal crisis!

    Really though, it's not like the Liberal party hasn't tried to appeal to westerners. The whole reason the party was subjected to attacks for doing nothing on the environment for a dozen years was because landslide Annie stuck up for Alberta so well. They certainly were (overly, I think) generous when it came to the mad cow compensation as well.

    The same in BC, no matter what the party did the vote share stayed the same for 4 elections. Then the party tried going green, which was popular with people in BC until they actually were called upon to do something.

    As for the other two flat provinces, I think it's a bit much to ask for the party to do well in those areas. If the Liberals did really well in mostly rural areas like that, then they would win 250 seats!

    By Anonymous DR, at 10:16 AM  

  • I don't know. I don't think the Liberals have enough patience to let him have another shot at it.

    Though Dion's personality weaknesses definetely contributed to the loss, the biggest weakness between him and Obama is organization.

    For example, Obama beat Hillary because his TEAM was much better organized and more modern than the Clinton Machine. Now, here in the Election his team is beating the Republican Machine just because

    1. His team is better
    2. McCain didn't capture the whole machine

    Now for Dion this directly applies. Going into convention Iggy and Rae had huge campaign teams ready to take over. Even Kennedy has smaller machine he built from his Ontario MPP days. Dion, got in on a grassroots movement and had no team behind him. Thats why he lost the election.

    Think about, he's having to hire Paul Martin guys just to fill the spots on the roster and he can't keep a Quebec Lieutenant. Considering how well Martin's guys did for Martin, Dion's list must have been VERY short. In other words, Dion lost this election because he did not have the full backing of the Liberal Party.

    Until the Liberals can elect a leader with a machine and the respect of one of bigger factions of the Tiger that is the Big Red Machine, they won't be winning any time soon.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:17 AM  

  • I think a bigger problem is that there is no big red machine. They have no fundraising, no little organization and a relatively small membership.

    As a political party, they're a mess.

    By Anonymous DR, at 10:23 AM  

  • If you wanted to me more specific, you could look at it as:

    Liberal seats in the Prairie Provinces: 2/56

    Liberal seats in BC: 5/36

    By Anonymous daveberta, at 10:37 AM  

  • Dion didn't do too badly. Consider 1993/Kim Campbell/PC bust to two seats. Lotsa ground to lose yet.

    Chretien changed the game of political party financing.

    The Libs need a new leader, before the next election.

    Are they going to keep the delegate/convention idea, or go one member/one vote? Reform/CA/CPC had to go through Manning/Day to get Harper. And even he ONLY got a second minority.

    The electoral map will change next time too. Red zones are in decline.

    By Blogger art, at 10:41 AM  

  • Sounds like we need to take seats from Ontario and Quebec and move them out west. If not, then a Triple E Senate.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:52 AM  

  • That's not really a fair comparison, given the differing systems that determine a U.S. president and a Canadian PM.

    Besides which I'm looking at the Canadian political Map and increasingly seeing it as less a regional divide (Atlantic Canada aside)and more a Rural-Urban divide.

    I mean that's where Harper found his increase isn't it? The suburban ridings the surround our major metropolitian area's.

    That's where the Liberals need to grow from. Extend out from the cities and take back the suburbs and then make a push for the semi-rural areas.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:01 AM  

  • anon - bingo.

    It's an urban-rural divide. Given that, the Liberals should be trying to win seats in Winnipeg, Regina, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver...places like that. They're doomed unless they can make breakthroughs there.

    I'm a big fan of the 50 state strategy and I think it's paying off big time for the Dems now. Libs should adopt a 200 riding strategy now.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:11 AM  

  • Funny, I was going to say it looks like Ontario has too few seats. Unless there are only a dozen seats in Atlantic Canada (which seems low) I'm almost certain there are more people in Ontario than all the other provinces combined, save Quebec.

    In any event, I can accept a poor performance in the west if we're looking at a split along urban-suburban-rural lines, but the Liberals should really be doing better in Vancouver. Given their base has been revealed to be Toronto and Montreal, Vancouver seems like a logical place to look for easy gains.

    By Anonymous epimetheus, at 11:15 AM  

  • I guess I need to type faster if I'm going to have an original thought :P

    By Anonymous epimethues, at 11:18 AM  

  • Outside of Quebec, the Cons took 44% of the vote. They should go out of their way to punish Quebec for voting for the Bloc.

    Me and a friend had a laugh over how the Cons should encourage Quebec to separate. The Conservatives would have a 1000 year majority.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:16 PM  

  • Is it possible that the existence of the Bloc Quebecois is making national majorities impossible and therefore making regional politics more attractive?

    By Blogger Gauntlet, at 12:50 PM  

  • The Liberals made a strategic choice to write off the West in order the win seats.

    But don't blame Dion, he inherited that problem. I don't recall Dion engaging in any of the typical anti-West rhetoric that we heard so much of in 2006.

    Of course, the Green Shift doesn't help. The West gets their power from fossil fuels, which he's going to tax the crap out of, while Central Canada gets their energy from Nuclear or Hydro, so they can keep their jobs, use all the energy they want, and still get that income tax cut.

    Winning back the West? Follow the same rules you would use for Quebec:

    1. Stop characterizing them as being all the same, and quit ridiculing or demonizing any commonly held beliefs.

    2. Recognise their unique contribution to the country.

    3. Develop policies that hold their wants and needs at an equal level to those of the average Torontonian.

    Of course, if they do those things, they may lose some support in Central Canada, so I wouldn't be surprised if they don't bother.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 12:54 PM  

  • Hey "dr," look at an electoral map. The prairie provinces are mostly rural? I think you're a little out of touch.

    The population in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba is concentrated in cities. In Saskatchewan it is spread among smaller cities, and many ridings contain both urban and rural areas, so there is perhaps an argument to be made about distributions. Look to Manitoba for a clearer example: 14 ridings, 8 in Winnipeg. If it was a matter of the Liberals appealing to urban voters, they should have picked up more than one seat there.

    By OpenID robster1, at 2:46 PM  

  • Dion could be a terrific PM, he should jump to lead the Green Party - they'd win a dozen seats next time around. The Liberals will dump him, but I think he's a good guy. Not a great 'leader' perhaps, but honest and smart and thoughtful. It's been a lesson to watch - he let Harper and the Conservatives tell everyone what their opinion ought to be, I guess. All the young kids on Canadian schoolgrounds from sea to sea to sea should study and take careful note.

    How about Louise Arbour throws her hat in.

    By Blogger Ashley_Wilkes-Booth, at 3:22 PM  

  • Personally, I think Gauntlet is close to the truth. Minority governments in Canada were really rare pre-1993, since the Conservatives or the Liberals could always link up with someone else in the case of a minority government or, far, far more likely, one or the other got a majority.

    Ever since 1993, regional voting seems more widespread; in some ways it's more like 10 countries than 10 provinces (states? Except the USA seems to have given up on regional parties). BC is split between Socialists and Evangicals (I kid, but you get the point), Alberta is blind right, Prarie Provinces little better, Quebec is dominated by the Bloc, Maritimes somewhat ignored, and Ontario is actually split up. The NDP does well in some sectors- so well that they aren't Naders. The Conservatives seem to have created a Religious/Business/Individualism party that even appeals to Quebec. The Bloc Blocks things.

    And the Liberals? Why vote for them? Cause they're leftish- like the NDP? Cause their economics have been either NDP leftish or Mulroney Rightish (can you say NAFTA? GST? Low tax- oh, GST). National? Are you kidding? Conservatives have seats everywhere! Unlike the Liberals.

    And if you say Environment, then the complete destruction of the Green party is required, if not mandatory.

    Not like I favor one party or the other (your politics doesn't seem to predict a catalycysm every election like America's), but a firmer identity might help. A lot.

    On Ontario: It has 106 seats. Even sans Quebec that's not a majority, but it's a heck of a lot and why Tory gains there were more important than in Quebec.

    By Blogger Dyna, at 4:38 PM  

  • "
    Liberal seats in the Prairie Provinces: 2/56

    Liberal seats in BC: 5/36"

    there is now a re-count in Ujjal's riding . . he won a 36 vote squeker and could end up on the Liberal Electoral trash pile as well.

    Just another former NDP Premier currently mowing grass in Liberal Red.

    By Blogger Fred, at 5:25 PM  

  • There were a few ridings in which one Party dominated the others. Of interest is how that dominance split among the Parties.

    In particular, most of the ridings with the highest overall vote count went to the Conservatives. And most of the highest-vote-getting candidates were Conservatives. (E.g. Stephen Harper got 38,545 votes, but there were a few candidates who beat that total). By comparison, Wayne Easter won in PEI while receiving 8,312 votes.

    By Blogger paul.obeda@, at 6:38 PM  

  • Liberal seats in Ontario: 38
    Liberal seats in Ontario outside of the GTA: 6

    Liberal seats in Quebec: 13
    Liberal seats in Quebec outside Greater Montreal: 1

    If this is not cause for concern among Liberals, I don't know what would be.

    By Blogger ALW, at 7:39 PM  

  • Just rename your party to reflect it's base, and you can build from there. How about the Bloc Torontois?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:49 PM  

  • "Develop policies that hold their wants and needs at an equal level to those of the average Torontonian."

    So they should just ignore them then?

    By Anonymous DR, at 12:57 AM  

  • the liberal slogan is continuing to haunt them

    the liberals wrote off the west, to gain votes in Quebec; that tatic is paying off in spades isn't it.

    Dion claims to be a friend of Alberta, and then brings out the green shaft - some friend.

    if its ok for Quebec to remember past wrongs, which occured a long time ago, why do the liberal press, and the eastern masses, complain when Alberta remembers the recent past - the NEP?

    when the liberal party, and their supporters, drop their double standards, they will have the beginning of a comeback in the west.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:27 AM  

  • Interesting figures. The Liberals hold 74 ridings. 44 of those ridings are in Toronto or its suburbs, or Montreal or its suburbs. Another 20 or so are in the Atlantic provinces.

    That said, whenever a political party gets under 30% of the vote it always retreats to its core territory in terms of the seats it holds.

    By Anonymous Ed, at 3:26 PM  

  • "retreats to its core territory in terms of the seats it holds"

    NL? PEI?

    By Blogger paul.obeda@, at 4:06 AM  

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