Final Fix
After being bombarded with hundreds of polls during the campaign, the final ones are out tonight:
SES
Lib 30.1%
CPC 36.4%
NDP 17.4%
BQ 10.6%
Somewhat interesting are the Sunday numbers in the poll which have the Tories up by a mere 2.8%, and only 1.7% among voters "very likely" to vote. Yeah, there's a big margin of error, but it should provide
Ipsos, meanwhile, has the Tories up by 10. The Globe is promising a Greg poll later tonight.
After tonight, we'll be back to monthly polls, so I suspect a few of us will be checking into rehab, once the SES-withdrawal symptoms start to kick in.
UPDATE: The Strategic Counsel has it 37-27-19-11...like pretty much every other polling firm out there.
UPDATE: The Election Prediction Project has their numbers down to 118 Tory, 99 Liberals, 58 Bloc, 28 NDP, 1 Independent, and 4 too close to call.
posted by calgarygrit at
9:16 p.m.
30 Comments:
Tonight's SC is up on the SC website with the same 10 pt. lead. n=~1800.
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Anonymous, at 9:43 p.m.
I will go out on a limb and say the SES poll is hinting at the Liberals winning the popular vote.
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Anonymous, at 9:48 p.m.
HAHA! All of you who doubted Paul are going to be mighty pissed off tomorrow. Cherniak was right all along and doubters like you got caught up in your Harper fetish and let it cloud your judgement!
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Anonymous, at 9:56 p.m.
Bricker of IPSOS, at the Coyner site:
Yup, this is no game for those with weak stomachs.
Here's how we did our prediction. We did 2,000 interviews between Tuesday and Thursday by phone. That was the 10 pt gap that we released on Friday. Then, I did 500 on each of Friday and Saturday night by telephone. That showed a bit of a surge for the Tories over the weekday polling.
Then, I ran our Internet panel of 12,000 pre-selected respondents who said they would be very likely/certain to vote on Monday. Nearly 8,000 responded. That survey showed about what Friday's results showed. I rolled together the Internet survey with the 3,000 telephone interviews, weighted back the weekday interviews by half, and that's how we got our prediction.
As for modelling, I've described what we do in other postings. I used the blended 11,000 to do the last version.
As for who is closest, all of the pollsters are showing a similar outcome. All are also showing findings that can only be modelled as a minority. At 12 pts, we're on the outer edge of aggressive for the Tories, but even then we're not at a majority yet.
I'm comfortable with what we've done and will sleep soundly tonight. I can't think of what else I could do to make it any better than what we've got.
Posted by: Darrell Bricker | Email | 1/22/2006 9:35PM
COMMENT: Sample size should put fears to rest. Erik.
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Anonymous, at 9:59 p.m.
Strategic Counsel has their numbers up on their website. Editorial exclamation points are mine.
January 19-22, 2006
Sample size: 2500
MOE: +/- 2%
CPC: 37
Liberal: 27
NDP: 19
BQ: 11
Green: 6
Regional breakdowns:
Montreal: BQ 48, L 18(!), C 16, N 10, G 8
Rest of Quebec: BQ 48, C 32, L 11, N 5, G 5
416: L 39, C 27, N 27, G 7 (!)
905: L 51, C 34, N 10, G 5 (virtually no change from 2006)(!)
SW Ontario: C 37, L 33, N 23, G 7
E Ontario: C 44, L 28, N 20, G 8
Man/Sask: C 47, N 25, L 21, G 7
Alberta: C 69, L 15, N 8, G 8
B.C. Lower Mainland: L 35, C 34, N 27, G 4
Rest of B.C.: C 37, N 34, L 23
Atlantic: C 36, L 34, N 24, G 5 (!)
Bottom line: still looks like a CPC minority, indications of a Lib bounce in Ontario (yeah great, thanks again guys), Dippers poised to make major gains in Ontario and B.C.
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Anonymous, at 9:59 p.m.
I was waiting for some late numbers, incl. the SC tallies. The SES numbers are heavily weighted towards undeclared gLibs & undecideds who answered their phones in Ont.
I give the CPC 155-162 with 8-10 tories in Quebec and more than half of the Ont. seat total, 75 in the West & Territories and 17-18 in the Atlantic prov's.
There are enough 3-way races that I can't call the NDP vs. gLib totals and the tory numbers in Quebec also make a handful of bloc seats vulnerable to the gLibs IF the Mtl. & surrounds gLib vote turns out--I suspect it will be a record low turnout of gLib voters.
If the bloc and Libs are in the same ballpark of seat totals or the Libs end up with less, then there will be a whole new political dynamic at play if Harper nails a majority or is within a stone's throw of one in the coming months...
ie. much conjecture vis a vis a gLib NDP political alliance/merger.
If the gLibs attempt to hue to the centre-right, the party will split into two openly opposed factions with left-leaning gLibs wanting to ally with dippers and greens within wedge issue coalitions.
As Gilles Duceppe's former paramount leader might have quipped 'may you live in interesting times'!
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Anonymous, at 10:17 p.m.
anonymous - "a Lib bounce in Ontario (yeah great, thanks again guys)"
You are welcome. We will keep Harper in check for you buddy.
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Anonymous, at 10:25 p.m.
Martin hit a low point with me with his crack about Calgary while campaigning in Atlantic Canada. Even if Martin had some factual basis, these divisive attacks serve no ones interest. The sad part is these type of comments are effective, the SES poll shows a big Liberal surge in Atlantic Canada.
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Steve V, at 10:59 p.m.
I dunno about this SES poll.
How many of us radical ultra right wing extreme Christian Conservatives are home on Sunday morning to respond to a telephone poll? Most of the ones I know were at church, with copies of the Hidden Agenda, drinking the blood of unbaptised babies and stuff.
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Anonymous, at 11:18 p.m.
Why don't you just change your name to "CalgaryTory" and end the charade?
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Hishighness, at 11:50 p.m.
HH: Dunno. I read CG regularly and I haven't caught him supporting the CPC. Is this blog meant to be a party organ?
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Anonymous, at 12:06 a.m.
HisHighness; Out of curiosity, how is posting poll numbers pro-Tory? Seriously. You'd have to be delusional to think the Liberals are going to win this thing. I imagine even St.Louis Blues fans have conceeded they likely aren't going to win the Stanley Cup this year and that it's time to rebuild.
And, I explained earlier this week that I'd vote Liberal.
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calgarygrit, at 12:25 a.m.
Have you ever happened to venture to the university of calgary Mike? I've met plenty of liberals there. I don't mind admitting that I'm a (disgruntled) liberal from Calgary.
Hardeep
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Anonymous, at 1:11 a.m.
um mike, 3 of those 2 (couple of) liberals in calgary are MLA's.
- a cpc supporter.
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Anonymous, at 1:13 a.m.
CPC supporter
Those 2 or 3 liberals are just visting.
It usually takes about seven years for an easterner to become a westerner.
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Anonymous, at 1:20 a.m.
jack: 3 of 2? MLAs?
The guy claims to be from Calgary and doesn't know 3 Calgary ridings sent Liberals to Edmonton? (Mind you all Alberta Liberals belong in Edmonton, but in the Legislature?)
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Anonymous, at 1:32 a.m.
mike: They'd be perfectly safe in Caroline. Albertans like eccentrics.
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Anonymous, at 1:34 a.m.
CG,
you forgot to add the even more influential, "daveberta strategic prediction council project."
Their extremely responsible polling results along with a highly complicated forula actually show seat results before they actually happen... it's a very very complicated formula, so we don't have the space to fully explain it here. Anyway, these were the results. Results are true 100% out of 110%, 100 times out of 90 (again, too complicated to explain).
Here are the seats results of our indepth analysis:
CPC - 139
LIB - 84
BLOC - 60
NDP - 24
IND - 1
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daveberta, at 2:03 a.m.
mike: Not sure what you're on about. 28-0 would be fine by me. And CG is pretty much expecting it.
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Anonymous, at 2:08 a.m.
CG
CG- Delusional? That is a pretty strong word. I prefer term irrational exuberance.
Anyways, alot of delusional Liberals are hoping the results are alot better than you predicted.
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Anonymous, at 8:38 a.m.
I am a proud SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE. I predict you will see a backlash from social conservatives in tonight's election. We are sick and tired of being demonized and slandered all through this election by the liberals (although there are a significant portion of libs who claim to be social conservatives - Dan McTeague, Tom Woppal, etc.) and the NDP.
There has never been such deep vile hatred spewed out towards those who simply try to live their lives with morals and values. The poisonist hatred of the socialists is very obvious. So much for "tolerance" of the political left.
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Anonymous, at 9:25 a.m.
Anonymous
BS, the vile is not thrown at social conservatives for “simply try to live their lives with morals and values”, but because many of them try to impose their morals and values on the rest of us.
Most Liberals could care less what your morals and values are. We just don’t want you legislating those values on the rest of us.
The election isn’t over and conservative whining has already begun. Sheesh.
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Anonymous, at 9:58 a.m.
DM so if I provided you evidence of a social conservative agenda you wouldn't vote conservative? (rhetorical question, I know your answer already)
You are kidding yourself if you think pointing out the CPC social conservative values is not effective politics. I know just as many people who are not voting conservative because of the regressive social views (and agenda) of some conservative MPs.
Personally I believe social conservatism is the only reason the Liberals are still in this race.
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Anonymous, at 10:48 a.m.
I wouldn’t call enlightening left lean voters about the social conservative agenda of Conservative MPs as play one part of the country off the other. It seems to me that social conservatives are offended that the issues they care about are being discussed out in the open and their view on those issues are being described negatively by the Liberals.
Harper has said that under his government the next parliament will decide whether SSM rights will be taken away. Let’s be honest here, if the CPC has a majority (perhaps even a slim minority) in the next parliament and the bulk of their MPs are against SSM, then SSM will be abolished (barring a SC challenge). It doesn’t matter that it is not on some official party pamphlet or that the CPC does not want to discuss the issue during an election.
I find it scary that parliament would consider taking away the rights of a minority group. More so because the Conservatives plan to do so by stealth rather than campaigning based on the issue. It begs the question, who is next? Muslims? Immigrants?
Do you think Harper is going to prevent one of his own MPs from bring forth “Defense of Marriage” legislation? How do you think Harper himself would vote on this issue?
It’s remarkable how conservatives can pretend that only Liberals are disingenuous.
There is nothing wrong with reminding left leaning voters that their own self interest may not lie with the Conservatives.
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Anonymous, at 12:17 p.m.
DM, I think one of the issues is that a lot of people don't believe that the CPC has "changed its spots". I know that I don't...
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Anonymous, at 12:37 p.m.
Blah,
When liberal and NDP political pundants continue to label people with morals and values as "extreme and dangerous", this was the same type of hyperbole used to discredit and demean the Jews in Germany. This is intolerance.
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Anonymous, at 1:01 p.m.
Anonymous
I will repeat, no one has any issues with your morals or values unless you try and impose those values on people who do not share them through legislation.
I sure as a conservative you don’t want government meddling in your business affairs why do you feel they should meddle in someone else’s personal affairs?
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Anonymous, at 1:52 p.m.
Anon 11:01
"When liberal and NDP political pundants continue to label people with morals and values as "extreme and dangerous"..."
Are yopu implying, Anon, that Liberal and NDP "pundits" have no values? That is sure what it sounds like.
Liberals and NDP pundits have values, just different ones from you. They do not wish to enforce their values on anyone, but wish everyone to be free and for the government to treat people equally. There was nothing in SSM that directly affected you unless you were gay. In this sense, the Liberals and NDP have more in common with the libertarian wing of your own party - the government has no business legislating or discriminating against the actions of consenting adults which cause no harm. Saying they are "extreme and dangerous" is perhaps over the top, but recognize it for what it is - rehtoric in an election. The people that proclaimed themselves that SSM would result in the extinction of the human race and a chaotic social breakdown should not be complaining about being called extreme.
And comparing your situation with the situation of the Jews in pre-WW2 Germany is the very definition of hyperbole. Get real. THAT is insulting.
Someone who wishes to remove (or event consider voting on removing)the Charter rights of other Canadians because they don't share your particular world view should not be calling anyone 'intolerant'. If you are willing to dish it out, be prepared to take it.
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Mike, at 2:49 p.m.
"Morality is simply the attitude we adopt towards people whom we personally dislike."
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Anonymous, at 3:39 p.m.
Aw crap...CTV's interviewing Brian Mulroney right now. And the old man is smiling like the chershire cat.
It's gonna be a long couple of years.
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Anonymous, at 10:13 p.m.
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