Thursday, January 19, 2006

Final Predictions: The West

Since we're about to go dark on poll numbers, I figure it's time to post final predictions for election day. I'll start with the West today, and move east. Obviously, things could still change (especially if there's any truth to the somewhat wishful rumour about a "nuclear" CTV story on Harper set to air tomorrow). Regardless, here's how I see the Western Canadian numbers breaking down:


2004

Territories
3 Liberals

BC
8 Liberals (29%)
22 Tories (36%)
5 Dippers (27%)
1 Independent

Alberta
1 Liberal, 1 quasi-Liberal (22%)
26 Tories (62%)

Saskatchewan
Ralph (27%)
13 Tories (42%)

Manitoba
3 Liberals (33%)
7 Tories (32%)
4 NDP (24%)


Riding to Watch: Edmonton Centre
An Edmonton Journal poll has Laurie Hawn up 42%-37% on incumbent Anne McLellan. While Anne always seems to find a way to win, with a Conservative government likely, I'm going to predict this one goes Conservative.


2006 Predictions
Western Canada should provide the NDP with a few new seats, although the region has always been very Conservative so I don't foresee the same kind of massive riding switches we might see in other parts of the country.

Expect the Dippers to snatch the NWT from Ethel Blondin-Andrew, ensuring a lot of Orange on the electoral map.
Lib 2, NDP 1

In Manitoba, there are a few interesting ridings. Churchill is Bev Desjarlais' old riding, but I think the NDP can hang on to it. Selkirk-Interlake features Ed Schreyer and apparently the Liberal candidate has decided to snow shoe across the riding, rather than door knock (seriously...I saw it on CPAC). Still, local polls have the Tory hanging on to it. The Liberal seats are fairly safe, although I wouldn't be shocked to see Alcock or Neville lose. Still, I'll play it safe and assume everything stays the same in Manitoba.
Lib 3, CPC 7, NDP 4

In Saskatchewan, Ralph should be safe. The NDP lost a few close races to the Tories here last time, so I expect them to pick up at least one seat somewhere. While the Liberals have hopes for a few, the horrific national campaign is going to make it almost impossible for them to gain here.
Lib 1, CPC 12, NDP 1

In Alberta, I said 28 and 0 from the start and I'm sticking by that. Brad Lavigne seems to think the NDP will beat Rahim Jaffer, but I think Brad is a little out to lunch on this one.
CPC 28

BC is the wild card, and the EPP still has 15 seats there listed as "too close to call" (and they've called Vancouver Centre for Hedy over Svend which is a little premature imho). BC always seems to break Conservative on voting day, but I still expect some big gains for the NDP here, likely knocking off David Emerson and/or Keith Martin.
Lib 6, CPC 20, NDP 10


Totals
Liberal 12 (down 5)
Conservative 67 (down 1)
NDP 16 (up 7)

posted by calgarygrit at 11:45 p.m.

40 Comments:

  • As an Edmontonian with friends in the Edmonton-Strathcona campaigns, I can attest that Rahim is in a close race with the NDP Candidate, Linda Duncan. Rahim is more likely to win, but he could lose.

    - Mustafa Hirji

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:01 a.m.  

  • any hint as to what CTV has on Harper, when is the story airing?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:02 a.m.  

  • You are a bullish on the NDP in BC. I think the Conservatives will gain seats in that province at the expense of NDP/Liberal split vote - particularly around Vancouver. So there'll be one or two very undeserving Con members.

    This could be prevented if lots of Libs and NDPers vote. Are these voters motivated?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:15 a.m.  

  • Manitoba: I expect Desjarlais (former NDPer) and Ashton (current NDPer) to split the Knee-Dip vote and Tina Keeper will run up the middle.

    Other than that, I concur with you. And that Ed Schreyer won't unseat James Bezan in Selkirk-Interlake.

    By Blogger Etymologica, at 12:18 a.m.  

  • Anon; I heard the CTV rumour fourth hand, so I don't put much stock in it. I just mentioned it in passing, on the off chance it's true.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:24 a.m.  

  • Yeah, its possible the NDP prediction could be a tad high, but close. At 6 ridings are probably going orange.

    Keith Martin might hold onto his seat (unfortunately). And there are some real close races I have no idea how they will go in places like Burnaby and New Westminster that were nailbitters last time. Will be this time as well. Guessing the NDP will hold both Burnaby ridings despite a Liberal cabinet minister appearing every other day for Bill Cunnigham.

    Vancouver Island North and Svend also hard to tell. Same with Emerson who might hold on. Minus that, your probably right.

    By Blogger bza, at 12:38 a.m.  

  • FYI re: Vote split in Churchil. Probe research poll dated Jan 13 shows Ashton (34%), Keeper (25%) and Bev (23%). N=400, 25% undecided.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:42 a.m.  

  • I'm in Edmonton-Strathcona, too, and I know the NDP could pick this up if they worked at it. No-Show Rahim skips debates and interviews, hardly does anything useful for the riding, and, I have to say, dresses really horribly. The pamphlets they've been sending out makes it look like he just scrounged on his bedroom floor for whatever he could find before having his pictures taken.

    The NDP candidate, Linda Duncan, has excellent credentials, (although to be fair, since I mentioned Rahim's clothes, I should mention her hair is a bit funny) and I think would be a great addition to the NDP caucus. I see quite a bit of NDP lawn signs -- I just don't think they have the ground organization to pull off any sort of gain here.

    I'm thinking perhaps if the NDP does well this election, next time around we'll see Edmonton-Strathcona targetted as an important swing. Maybe Jack will even do a little thing on Whyte Avenue. (Gasp!)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:31 a.m.  

  • I guarantee that "Landslide Annie" will not eke this one out. In my humbled opinion, it is partly do to the fact that George hasn't been managing her campaign since 2000. It showed in the last election and it will really show on monday.

    By Blogger scott, at 1:42 a.m.  

  • Extremely tight race here in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. Kind of funny... Keith Martin is basically running as an independent and distancing himself from the Libs. He's also seems to have attracted the support of a business group that is out to stop the NDP.

    Interesting days...

    By Blogger Red Tory, at 3:10 a.m.  

  • CG,

    I think you're probably a bit too bullish on the NDP in BC. The Conservatives are polling over 40% in BC in a number of cases. I Think its more likely that we'll see 25 or 26 Conservatives comming out of BC, and the NDP picking up seats at the expense of the Liberals. I'm predicting the Return of the Ring and Svend being one of them.

    It will be 28 Conservatives in Alberta. I concur that the NDP are dreaming in technicolour about winning Edmonton Stratchona. Its a close race, but realistically to win the Liberal vote would have to entirely collapse and uniformly break to the NDP and I don't see that happening. I would also suggest to Mike that the NDP has its strongest presence in the northern part of the riding by the university where people are least likely to vote. Farther south the polls are solidly tory.

    On Saskatchewan I concur.

    In Manitoba, I've heard a lot of things from back in Winnipeg about Anita Neville being knocked off. If there is going to be a pickup in Manitoba I rather strongly suspect it will be Anita Neville's seat going Tory. She's been an uninspiring mp in Winnipeg for a while and with the Liberal national campaign tanking I wouldn't be surprised if a placeholder like her lost.

    By Blogger Chris, at 3:40 a.m.  

  • What exactly is the very unsubstantiated Harper Rumour? Thanks!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:26 a.m.  

  • Broadbent giving his "SIR, do you have no shame" speech. I have to agree, Martin has shown himself to be a complete disgrace.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:36 a.m.  

  • 'rumour about a "nuclear" CTV story on Harper set to air tomorrow'


    I think the nuclear story should about Harper and iraq. It sounds like an old story (not nearly as old as sponsorship - which we will be hearing about for the next decade) but it's far more imporant. Harper actively SOUGHT participation in that mess and went out of his way to tell the U.S. how sorry he was that Canucks were not in it with them.

    This alone shows what kind of a lap-dog prime minister he would be.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:58 a.m.  

  • Jeff, for your edification these are PM's take on Iraq, and not so long ago:

    "I really think Canada should get over to Iraq as quickly as possible." - (Paul Martin, North Bay Nugget, April 30, 2003).

    * "I don't think there is any doubt, if there ever was... that [Saddam Hussein] does have weapons of mass destruction. ...he had lied and that he is continuing to lie." - (Paul Martin, Calgary Herald, March 7, 2003)

    * "The problem is...we know well that there is proliferation of nuclear weapons and that many of the weapons that Saddam Hussein had, for example, we do not know where they are, so that means the terrorists have access to all that." - (Paul Martin, Globe and Mail, May 11, 2004)

    * "Once the war in Iraq began, Canada was far from neutral." - (Paul Martin, CTV News, May 21, 2004)


    "I really think Canada should get over to Iraq as quickly as possible." Get that? Paul Martin said that. Not Harper or Layton or Duceppe. Paul Martin. Get to war, and get to war fast. Said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, too.

    On this Remembrance Day, it's useful to remember - as Paul Martin cravenly seeks to depict his opponent as pro-war - that, once upon a time, Paul Martin favoured George W. Bush's illegal war in Iraq, too. >>> Flashback by W. Kinsella
    maz2 | 11.27.05 - 5:46 pm | #

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:19 a.m.  

  • On Edmonton Strathcona, the NDP has organization because of provincial NDP member Raj Pannu (who was also the former leader). There is a huge concentration of volunteers and supporters in the area, and the collapse the Liberals might get them to vote for NDP instead. The fact this story is getting some play might also convince Liberals and any other anti-Conservatives (and there's lots in Edmonton) to vote NDP at least in this riding. Liberal and NDP votes are often interchangeable in Alberta, because it's all about being anti-Tory. I suppose it is not inconceivable for the NDP to win one seat, but still a bit of a long shot.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:26 a.m.  

  • The "nuclear" story aired last night. It was a wonderful family portrait of Stephen and his "nuclear" family. It's worth another 2-3 seats for Stephen.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:31 a.m.  

  • Speaking of Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, I can confirm that Keith Martin is running scared. When I opened my mail box yesterday, I found 6 political flyers - 1 from the NDP and 5 from the LPC.

    The NDP flyer was the national "Vote NDP for working people" one. You've probably seen it.

    The Lib flyers were:

    1 - Hi, I'm Keith Martin, here's my record.

    4 - "OMG! NDP suX0rs! You can't vote NDP! PLEEZ!" (paid for by the Liberal party)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:43 a.m.  

  • Two cents

    I think you are going to very unhappy on Monday.

    The only thing I learned from the CTV story was that Harper was born in Toronto.

    That might just explain why he seems to suffer from "Toronto Maple Leafs Disorder". Typically characterized by the ability to consistently and inexplicably snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    Two days ago even I thought Harper would finally win, I now have my doubts.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:58 a.m.  

  • The Infozone is asking why Paul Martin is content to have tens of thousands of daycare workers live in poverty.

    It is not a subject Paul Martin, or the main-stream press seems willing to talk about? Why not?

    TIZ

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:23 p.m.  

  • Alberta - I concur.

    Saskatchewan - I can buy that the NDP *might* pick up a seat here, and if I had to choose, I'd say Goodale will hold his seat by a narrow margin.

    Manitoba - sure.

    BC - The Conservatives will lose the seat that Zeisman is running in, and maybe John Reynolds' and Gurmant Grewal's old seats. But they'll pick up Cadman's old seat. I think 20 is the absolute mininum for the CPC. Overall, I'd peg BC to go Liberal 7, Conservative 21, NDP 8.

    I say overall It'll be Liberal 13, Conservative 68, NDP 14. Very close to your prediction.

    By Blogger Michael Fox, at 12:36 p.m.  

  • Mr. Grit,

    Your comments please :

    http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/478399.html

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:16 p.m.  

  • Cadman's widow has come out for the NDP, so I don't think that's a sure thing for the Conservatives at all. I suspect there's some very interesting dynamics going on within that riding.

    By Blogger Wrye, at 1:41 p.m.  

  • The Grits are in play still in a couple of toss ups here in BC, including Bby-NW, Newton-NDelta and NW-Coq, and I predict they'll pick up two of those -- however they will lose in Richmond and Victoria. Van-Kingsway is too close to call. Hedy will win.
    My Best Guesstimate is
    CPC =21
    NDP = 9
    Lib = 6

    Alta =28
    Sask -CPC = 12; NDP = 1; Lib = 1
    Man -CPC = 7; NDP = 4; Lib = 3
    Ter -Lib = 2; NDP = 1

    West total = CPC-68; NDP-15; Lib-12

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:45 p.m.  

  • This is what you're voting for?

    http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/478399.html

    Martin now has sunk so low as to play the Alberta card.

    I'm not going to mix words here.

    This guy is a certifiable lunatic.

    He is the closest thing to a raving, power crazed despot in Canada I have seen in my lifetime.

    He is, IMHO, the singularly most frightening leader of a major Canadian political party in living memory, who would sell his mother's soul in a heartbeat to keep power.

    He has resorted to wild-eyed over-the-top vile and divisive rhetoric the likes of which would cause Musolini to blush.

    And the result of it all is that he single-handedly is bringing Canada to the very brink of utter distruction on Jan. 23.

    He somehow wins this thing...

    This country is finished, done, over with. Period. End of sad, sad story.

    IMHO.

    Jan. 23 = Judgement Day for Canada.

    I am not optimistic.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:57 p.m.  

  • As someone who lives in Winnipeg, in the riding currently held by Neville, I wouldn't count her seat as safe. Her campaign has been a non event punctuated by the occaisional pamphlet drop. I'm waiting for a repeat of 2004 with her near hysterical last letter to constituents urging people to vote for the Liberals or else the sky will fall. I should have kept that one for comic relief. No one will ever admit it, but the local Riding association is pretty much expecting that she's finished.

    I've heard that Alcock came out the worse in a candidates forum this week, so if he does win, it may not be by much. Losing is a possibility that his people hadn't considered, but is now one that they may be facing.

    The only Liberal in Manitoba who may be safe would be Raymond Simard, and even then, in the blue wave of 1984, even that riding went Conservative.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:00 p.m.  

  • Anitia Neville in Winnipeg South Centre is running neck and neck with the Tory and the NDP are also only 5 points back. If the NDP voters don't switch en masse to the Neville than she is done like dinner and can be known for losing the safest Liberal seat in Western Canada. The mood around the campaign office has been dark for the past couple of weeks and we are having trouble getting volunteers out for us. The unexpected strong campagin from an unknown NDP candidate has really hurt the Liberals in WPG SC.

    As for the other Liberals seats in Winnipeg. Alcock might also be in trouble, but I expect him to pull it out, and if Anitia loses than Simard losing would not shock me. The Liberal campaign has now given up hope of winning back Chareleswood and Kildonon and have sent all resources to help the incumbants keep their seats. Dugaid and Loewan are not too happy. Keeper might have still have a chance up North.

    NDP-5
    Liberal-2
    Tory-7

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:07 p.m.  

  • I'm almost positive Cadman's old seat will go NDP.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:22 p.m.  

  • Check Warran K's site.

    Ipsos (huge poll, good regional break downs) have the CPC up by 12.

    Only TO is safe for the Libs. 905 is going CPC.

    It's looking for like a majority again.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:47 p.m.  

  • I think Neville is going to lose too. Her assistant Drew Mendel told me two days ago that he has already asked Reg Alcock for a job after the 23rd.

    One has to love Liberal Party Loyality.

    It's sad to see Axworthy's seat go down in flames like this. Any decent candidate should have been able to hold on to this seat, since it remained Red even 1984. Neville's campaign has been almost totally absent. Besides some mailouts there has been little door to door or phone canvasing.

    Micheal Richards will win because of sheer hard work.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:47 p.m.  

  • Richards will win because volunteers showed up in droves and went to work.

    Richards has worked all day and late into the night to reach as many voters as possible. Neville has been invisible.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:36 p.m.  

  • I'll try to make a prediction as an outsider without a (significant) sentimental stake in the outcome:

    It seems clear that the outcome will be a Tory minority, somewhere between 120 and 150 seats. All the polling is now converging to show the Tories at 35 to 37, the Liberals at 28 to 30. Strategic Council now has the race at Tories 37, Liberals 28. The seat markets are all showing predictions from the Tories in the 120s to the Tories in the 140s. And the UBC market is now trading Tory minority in the 80s (up from 60s only a couple of days a go).

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:49 p.m.  

  • Watching the polls and worry about the greens splitting the vote and letting the conservatives in? Fear not if you use your vote wisely; watch listen read, a bit, each riding is different. When you see a strong showing of the conservatives and few liberal signs it’s a good chance that you’re in a CONS. Verses NDP so voting green might not help you see your desires met voting GREEN they take from the NDP and liberals with very few very soft conservatives.
    The conservative party’s history shows little regard for the environment or the poor. Just look at the main change of lowering the GST this does nothing for the poor or anyone making less then 50,000 a year. Look around the world at countries that have conservative governments, the US in debt for generations in just 4 years, Australia violence and racial unrest because of poverty. Where would Canada fit, a police state to keep the masses in check?

    Vote wisely

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:30 p.m.  

  • Bart, interesting call on the West but my read is that the tories will pick up a total of 4 out west--2-3 in BC and 1 in Manitoba. I'm not at all informed on the races in the terri-tories...

    I'm not closing my book on Auntario, Quebec and the Maritimes until Sunday evening as the numbers are still moving in Quebec and the Maritimes with some CPC gains still achievable in Ont., but so far I've got the Stephen Harper party pegged at between 158 and 168 seats.

    The biggest problem is in reading the undecideds and how they will break: eg. are significant numbers going to vote gLib but won't admit it OR is it the reverse with many quietly determined to vote for Harper but feeling somewaht reticent/guilty/chagrined about admitting their intention.

    Finally, this one is harder to call in terms of seat totals than either 2000 (when I won Bourque.com's seat call contest) or 2004 because the Glib voters have the lowest likelihood of turning out to vote in living memory, including the 1984 rout.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:47 p.m.  

  • er, anonymous at 9:47 was me....

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:50 p.m.  

  • CG If you THINK Ann McLellan will even come close to winning her seat back you must be right out of your mind. There will be absolutely no liberals in the province My relatives in the east are liberals and they are totally disgusted with martin and what he is saying about Alberta. My family know albertans and love alberta. I have lived here for 20+ years and I am so angry with the garbage that is coming out of that party I will never vote for them again.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:24 a.m.  

  • Cadman's seat NDP? Really CG?

    By Blogger Michael Fox, at 1:43 a.m.  

  • Polls in the West have consistently shown the NDP doing badly, and the Liberals actually increasing their support, but that has changed in recent polls. Besides Western ridings seem more likely to deviate from the overall trend than ridings in Ontario or Quebec.

    My predictions are that the Liberals pick up Churchill and Churchill River, both sparesly populated ridings that are likely to deviate from the national trend. Conservatives gain the remaining two Liberal ridings in Alberta. Nothing else changes in Alberta or the Praries. BC is its usualy mess. The NDP should gain Surrey North and Southern Interior, will probably lose the two Burnaby ridings they now hold, and may make a couple of gains on Vancouver Island, from both the Liberals and the Tories. The Liberals will actually gain a few ridings, in the Vancouver suburbs. BC has a tendency to trend in a sharply different direction than the rest of Canada.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:04 p.m.  

  • I agree with the previous poster, CG, that the Grits will pick up Churchill in Manitoba and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River in Saskatchewan.
    I'm saying 11 CPC, 2 Lib, 1 NDP in Saskatchewan, with Lorne Nystrom being the New Democrat, by a hair.

    By Blogger John Murney , at 12:08 a.m.  

  • The Cook Political Report is an independent,Costa rica toursnon-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House.
    http://www.kingtours.com

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:38 a.m.  

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