Saturday, January 21, 2006

Final Predictions: Atlantic

Yesterday I looked at the West. Today, the East. I should warn you that outside of the Rankin Family Christmas, Anne of Green Gables Miniseries, and Brian Tobin's memoirs, I know very little about the Maritimes. Given that, many readers probably have a better idea of what the big local issues are and how the mood feels there. I invite them to comment.


2004

Newfoundland
Lib 5 (48%)
CPC 2 (32%)

Nova Scotia
Lib 6 (40%)
CPC 3 (28%)
NDP 2 (28%)

New Brunswick
Lib 7 (45%)
CPC 2 (31%)
NDP 1 (21%)

PEI
Lib 4 (53%)


Riding to Watch: Kings Hants
Rumoured Liberal leadership candidate, and former PC leadership candidate, Scott Brison is in tough, trying to hold on to a riding he won easily last time. Brison hasn't been helped by a spat he had with a voter in his riding last fall. Despite all that, I expect this one to stay Liberal


2006 Predictions
The Tories have leapt ahead in Atlantic Canada - the real question is how many new seats it will get them. In Newfounland, the Liberals have some pretty impressive margins of victory from last time, but I'm going to say Avalon (Efford's old riding) and Bonavista swing Tory.
Lib 3, CPC 4

Harper took a trip to PEI this week, so he obviously thinks there are some vulnerable ridings there. Wayne Easter and Shawn Murphy seem like the most obvious targets and I'll assume one of the two loses.
Lib 3, CPC 1

Despite the rising Tory tide, I don't see a lot of ridings in Nova Scotia swinging. The seats the Grits are most in danger of losing are ones where the NDP finished second and their numbers haven't moved a ton out East.
Lib 6, CPC 3, NDP 2

In New Brunswick, the situation is a lot more precarious for the Liberals. It wouldn't surprise me to see Andy Scott, Paul Zed, and Andy Savoie all go down in defeat and that's just for starters.
Lib 4, CPC 5, NDP 1


2006 Predicted Totals
Liberals 16 (down 6)
Conservatives 13 (up 6)
NDP 3 (unchanged)

posted by calgarygrit at 2:02 a.m.

24 Comments:

  • Sounds reasonable on the whole, although I would only guess 3 Conservative seats in Newfoundland & Labrador and 3-4 in New Brunswick, and 3-5 in Nova Scotia (West Nova is definitely a possibility), while PEI will stay solidly Liberal.

    By Blogger Monkey Loves to Fight, at 2:10 a.m.  

  • Can anyone explain to me exactly what Scott Brison did wrong other than use a swear word? Frankly, I like a man with some friggin' moxie!

    By Blogger Dan McKenzie, at 3:25 a.m.  

  • Paul Martin should immediately step aside.

    This would cause a bump in the polls for the Liberals. As it is, they are quite rightly headed for their lowest ever (yet strangely, probably highest remaining) popular vote tally in history.

    Here comes Jack.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:28 a.m.  

  • Do a complete 180 and your about right.

    By Blogger NL-ExPatriate, at 5:04 a.m.  

  • This is funny.

    So I leave a post on Jason Cherniak's blog on how I believe Paul Martin was a bad (Canada's worst) Prime Minister because he is SELFISH and put his own interests before himself and that of his party.

    Then I find a Toronto Star article that says the same thing an hour later:

    "Voters accept that politicians will say almost anything to get elected. But prime ministers are diminished when they make national interests subservient to partisan advantage. That's now a recognizable Martin trait. Just as he sacrificed the party to capture its leadership, Martin twice made the country's priorities second to his own at critical times."

    Then I leave another post on Gerry's blog about everyone and his dog knowing what the worst part of the Martin campaign was except that there are so many different opinions on this you can't keep them straight and a couple hours later, find another Toronto Star article today that opens like this:

    "Everyone knows the moment when it went so wrong for Paul Martin. It's just that every moment is different."

    This is just too funny. The Toronto Star is a right-wing rag, I tell you.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:11 a.m.  

  • lol - Doh! Okay it isn't two different ones (it's late; I'm tired; it's all Jean Chretien's people's fault), it's the same beautiful article, 'Martin damaged beyond repair' by James Travers of the Toronto Star.

    Night everyone. Have a great weekend and election!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:23 a.m.  

  • CPAC-SES has it 41%-31% in Atlantic Canada. Unfortunately, that means a majority of seats are going Conservative (not the other way around). Expect 18-11-3.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:23 a.m.  

  • CG,
    I think your prognostications are good, but momentum can be a weird thing. Assuming that big mo has already done its' thing, the only quibble I have (as a resident) is West-Nova. It was only Liberal in protest of the PC-Alliance split, and will return to it's roots this time.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:23 a.m.  

  • I still think that the NDP will out gun the Liberals and the Liberals will take third place. That's exactly where they need to be given the total dog's breakfast of a campaign.

    Perhaps under a new government the biggest "entitlements to the entitlements" will go to Canadians at last.. the entitlement to say with a vote "WE DON'T BELIEVE YOU ANYMORE".

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:12 a.m.  

  • As a Newfoundlander-in-exile I think you've called things there pretty close to correct, though I could see NL going anywhere from 4 CPC / 3 LPC to 2 CPC / 5 LPC.

    Oh, and a word to the wise: don't add NL to the "Maritimes"; the folks back home don't take kindly to being lumped in with those other 3!

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 9:40 a.m.  

  • Anonymous: There was no 'PC-Alliance split' in 2004 or did you mean in protest of the PC-Alliance merger? I'd predict 6 Conservatives for N.B. and 4 for NL.

    By Blogger metasyntactic variable, at 10:12 a.m.  

  • I have the CPC gaining 2 in NFLD, 1 in PEI, 1 in NS & 3, maybe 4, in NB. Plus the NDP will pick up 1-2 in NS

    By Blogger McGuire, at 10:35 a.m.  

  • NFLD--4-3 CPC sounds about right

    NS--Dartmouth is a possible pickup for NDP..hotbed of support provincially..former MP Peter Mancini is running against Lib Mike Savage. Crime is a growing concern in Metro so if there's some movement to Tories on that issue it could skew things for Libs in a two way squeeze.

    x-Fisheries Minister Robert Thibault is a possible pickup for Conservatives. Popular former provincial cabinet minister running in this one for Conservatives.

    PEI--Depending on degree of momentum and mood for change both Cardigan (Lawrence MacAulay) and Charlottetown (Shawn Murphy) could be in trouble. Martin refused to bring his Hail Mary Tour through the Island and Harper was there twice. Murphy is running from his role in shutting down the Public ACcounts hearings into Sponsorship and local Libs are fear mongering that province's will claw back the choice in child care grants.

    NB--Saint John, Fredericton are definitely in play with strong Conservative challenges. NDP already has one seat in the Mirimachi and sliding through in a 3-way race for another is a possibility. There's also an open seat being contested in Moncton that Frank McKenna wisely avoided contesting.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:00 a.m.  

  • re: The comment above about Brison swearing. A life long patronage queen of a bygone era walks up to him and demands a federal government job in exchange for being a life long liberal. Brison tells her no, that's not the way we do things in government anymore, we're out of the 1970's, ma'am. She gets belligerent, he gets rude right back.

    The media should have made an issue of her arrogance, not his comments. The whole exchange will likely increase his support in the riding, not decrease it.

    Kings Hants is not a riding to watch. I boldly predict the re-election of every incumbent of every party in this province. Nothing has really changed here since election day. COnservative popular vote may increase a little bit in Metro, but they are starting from well, well behind.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:17 a.m.  

  • Dan McKenzie:

    Everything I've heard out of Scott Brison's campaign is telling me that he's getting more positive than negative out of the restaurant thing. Also, I heard someone ask him about it point blank at a rally and he simply laughed it off and cracked an inocuous joke.

    This guy is a natural campaigner, and he's always 'on'.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:46 a.m.  

  • In the last election, Danny William's PCs had been just elected, had just made big cuts, and legislated government workers back to work. This was all before the atlantic accord, and people were pissed off at the provincial Conservatives. This time they're at an all time high in popularity and this could rub off on the federal tories.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:03 p.m.  

  • I think the Tory tide will hit the Atlantic provinces. We know the Tories are going to win and the people of the Maritimes will vote for the party in power.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:20 p.m.  

  • Nobody has won a single seat yet. Anyway, a CPC minority might be as fleeting as Kinsella's liberal values.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:37 p.m.  

  • I think Brison will win, but I predict the NDP will take Dartmouth.

    By Blogger Art, at 1:47 p.m.  

  • "I know very little about the Maritimes"

    Like Jason H. said. Few things get up the backs of Atlantic Canadians more than come-from-aways who confuse 'Atlantic Canada' with 'the maritimes'.

    Note for any aspiring politicos out there: get this distinction wrong at your peril.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:52 p.m.  

  • Predicting the Atlantic ridings are difficult because the polls there are all over the map. However, I agree that every incumbent MP will win. Where there were close races last time the momentum seems to have shifted in the direction of the incumbent party, and where there is movement the margins are too big to flip. The one riding that will change parties is Avalon.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:50 p.m.  

  • Note for any aspiring politicos out there: get this distinction wrong at your peril.

    Groovy: Thanks. I would also add confusing "St. John's" with "Saint John" to the list...

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 5:05 p.m.  

  • OK Bart, I was with you until you hit NS. The Tories are going to take back West Nova and quite possibly Kings Hants as well (but I wouldn't be surprised to see Scotty B. shuffling back to the Opposition benches). You also missed Dartmouth reverting back to the NDP (aka Peter Mancini).

    My prediction for NS:

    Grits: 3-4
    Tories: 4-5
    Dippers: 3-4

    As others have said, there is much at play in Nfld. The Tories pretty much have a lock on St. Johns and Gander-Grand Falls will revert to the Conservatives as well. Avalon remains an open question.

    Nfld:
    Grits: 3-4
    Tories: 3-4

    I agree with you on The Island. If the gods were just, Shawn Murphy would keep his seat forever and a day. He's the only MP who sees a higher purpose to his job than simply funnelling dubious projects back to the riding, or poaching jobs, quotas and projects from neighbouring jurisdictions. Coincidently, he's the only Island MP never to have been in cabinet. How curious? Nonetheless, the Tories are driving hard at him. If a blue wave begins, the Conservatives will take two (including Charlottetown). If not, well Lawrence MacAulay already has a pretty good pension. I don’t think he will be missed in Ottawa.

    NB.
    You called it straight.

    Grits: 4
    Tories: 5
    Dippers: 1

    The Tories are going to pick up three. Just don't ask me which three. By my count five Grit ridings are in play (Godin has a lock on Acadie-Bathurst. His opponent, Marcelle Mersereau, retired from her job as an opposition MLA six months before the cheques stopped coming. She went to Mexico for the last two legislative sittings. That won't be forgotten).

    Of Andy Savoy, Scott and Zed, two will be sent to the showers on Monday. If there were justice, Andy Savoy would be returned, as his social positions make Myron Thompson look like a fairy. Unfortunately for him, Carleton County, the largest part of his riding, is the Tory heartland in NB, only slightly less adamant about it than Fundy-Royal (only two Grits since Confederation).

    By all rights Zed should be packing it in, but the SJ Tories are running an anaemic campaign and Zed is well organized. So he may pull it out. Miramichi and Madawaska-Restigouche are also in play for local reasons. Charlie Hubbard has a former Liberal MLA (and McKenna minister) running against him as an independent and, as they say in NB, Edmundston always winds up on the government side. If it’s a big wave, the Tories could take seven, but I'm standing with five.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:40 p.m.  

  • Jason H: oooh. Saint John vs St John's. That one really marks you as a come-from-away too. Good one.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:05 a.m.  

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