Sunday, January 22, 2006

Final Predictions: Ontario

Atlantic Canada
Western Canada

From the start, the consensus was that this election would be decided by Ontario voters. In 2004, they didn't fully trust Harper and rushed back to the Liberals at the last minute. This time? We've seen hints of that, but I don't think it will be enough to turn the tide.

2004 Results

Liberals 75 seats (45%)
Conservatives 24 seats (32%)
NDP 7 seats (18%)

Riding to Watch: Newmarket Aurora

Belinda's defection from the Tories may have been the best thing to ever happen to Steven Harper. It delayed an election at a time he probably would have lost and brought his party together, giving them time to prepare a coherent election strategy. The Liberals are obviously worried about Belinda, bringing in big names to help her campaign, and moving people from other campaigns to her riding. Belinda herself has conceded that she's in trouble, and I'm going to predict this one goes Conservative.

2006 Outlook

Toronto remains the Liberal fortress. Jack and Olivia should be able to win their seats, and I expect Sam Butte will be going down in Parkdale. There's some talk about Peter Kent (CPC) or Paul Summerville (NDP) knocking off Bennett in St. Paul's but, like Ignatieff's riding, it's too safe a Liberal seat for an upset to happen. There are a few other vulnerable ridings, but I suspect that the Liberals will win all but three seats in Toronto.

The 905 is a different story. The NDP should sweep all three Hamilton seats, bringing a smile to Sheila Copps' face. The Tories will gain at least 6 or 7 new seats here, including Belinda's. It also looked like Jim Flaherty is pretty much a lock, and talk is he'll be the new head of the Treasury Board in a Harper government.

Ottawa itself will likely also see a few more CPC MPs. David McGuinty is in tough against Allan Cutler, and John Baird should win in Ottawa-West-Nepean. James Bowie will probably have a job in Maaaaaaahoney's office should he win, but I tend to think the NDP will hang on. Outside of Peter Miliken, I can't see any other Liberals in Eastern Ontario, outside of Ottawa, winning.

Expect four time loser Tony Clement to beat Andy Mitchell in Parry Sound, and get a fairly high profile Cabinet Position. A lot of other seats in the North and West should drift to the Tories too. Al Gretzky has an outside chance in London, but I have doubts. I'd love to see a few guys like Telegdi and Steckle go down in defeat, but I suspect they'll likely hang on (as will Wappell, obviously).

2006 Predictions

Liberals: 48 seats (down 27)
Conservatives: 46 seats (up 22)
NDP: 12 seats (up 5)


Conservatives: 132 seats
Liberals: 87 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 57 seats
NDP: 31 seats
1 Independent


  • Holy cow, CG, those are pretty close to my numbers:

    CPC 137
    Lib 88
    BQ 58
    NDP 25

    By Blogger John Murney , at 4:04 p.m.  

  • CG

    I am sure you are referring to Jim Flaherty. I don't know him well enough to call him Jack.


    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:08 p.m.  

  • Jack and I go way back...

    I'll make the change.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 4:19 p.m.  

  • I think your calls are right on the money CG!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:59 p.m.  

  • I largely agree with those predictions. In fact my home riding is Flaherty's. Would have been nice vote for Sid Ryan possibly, but thats the way electoral rezoning goes.

    Flaherty probably does have a lock, since it doesn't bother a bit at all Judy Longfield is going down in defeat since she voted against same sex marriage. Even though Flaherty is probably the tory I hate the most in Ontario, he is the most experienced. A double-edged sword. O'well, was good he isn't in John Tory's seat in the legislature.

    By Blogger bza, at 5:47 p.m.  

  • Here's what the K-W Record said about Telegdi in its editorial yesterday:

    "In Kitchener-Waterloo, Andrew Telegdi has been a principled Liberal politician and a solid local representative for his constituents. He deserves to win. His Conservative rival Ajmer Mandur ran a wobbly campaign and did not perform well in the all-candidates debates. The NDP's Edwin Laryea turned in a better performance but does not match Telegdi's strengths."

    I know this must burn Kinsella but the guy is not unpopular here.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:28 p.m.  

  • I think you counted too high for Libs in Quebec and too low for Cons there.

    Otherwise, your guess seems pretty good.

    I'd shuffle 10 - 20 seats to Cons from Libs.

    (That's what makes it so exciting.)

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 6:57 p.m.  

  • Wow, I think these are pretty low numbers for the Liberals. They'll most likely do better than everyone thinks, and we'll all be suprised tuesday morning. Remenber how close everyone thought it would be last time? Apros pros of nothing esle, my gut tells me the Libs will have more than 90 seats come tuesday.

    ~Matt O

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:03 p.m.  

  • A pox on all the polls!

    CPC 141
    Lib 79
    BQ 61
    NDP 26
    INd 1

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:15 p.m.  

  • CG

    I think you are over estimating Conservative support in Ontario. With the danger of a Conservative government the NDP vote will collapse again. It will be closer but the conservatives will only pickup 5 to 10 seats. The liberals have a slight edge in the latest Ontario polls, and we are not even considering the last minute NDP collapse.

    In the end I expect both the Liberals and the Conservatives will endup with around 110 seats.

    We will see who is right tomorrow night.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:21 p.m.  

  • Ontario will back the Liberals at the expense of the NDP (outside of the GTA).

    The sampling of most polls is far too volatile and unreliable. Look for egg on the faces of Gregg and his ilk tomorrow night.

    CPC 116
    Lib 110
    BQ 56
    NDP 25
    INd 1

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:55 p.m.  

  • yeah, you guys are right - at the end of the day, the numbers will fall your way.

    so, I say, relax. Have a good day tomorrow. Go to work. Play some hockey. Drink some beer. Voting, Shmoting. Get to bed early and wake up to same old, same old.

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 10:05 p.m.  

  • Calgary Grit - i think your numbers are bang on. Provided neither party has some sort of wave of support tomorrow (which still could happen). I think the best analysis of what went wrong in the Liberal campaign can be found on Kinsella's blog. Despite the fact that Martin ran an embarassing campaign, what really went wrong was that the Liberal party lost touch with the people who gave Chretien three majorities. Canadians drink Tim Hortons, not Starbucks. Harper focused his campaign on the right bunch.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:43 p.m.  

  • I agree with CG's numbers. If there is a NDP collapse in Ontario, give the Liberals a dozen more ridings, three at the expense of the NDP and the rest from the Conservatives. On a riding-by-riding basis, the Conservatives are looking pretty good.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:39 p.m.  

  • Gotta get my two bits (or $1.75) in here.... just for the record.

    CPC 149
    LIB 68
    BQ 57
    NDP 33
    IND 1

    Have fun tomorrow everyone!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:37 a.m.  

  • With SC and Ipsos re-establishing the double digit lead, with Crusty Craig Oliver speaking of silent majorities, and with Al Gregg talking of some possible shifts, I'll offer this cautiously optimistic prediction:

    CPC - 157
    Lib - 60
    BQ - 59
    NDP - 32

    CPC - 4 (Bonavista Gander - Grand Falls - Windsor, Avalon, St. John's
    South Mount Pearl, St. John's East)
    Liberal - 3 (Humber St. Barbe Baie Verte, Random Burin St. Goerge's,

    [I think that CPC will win a slight plurality of the popular vote in
    NL but that NDP numbers will be very impressive here too. At least one
    St. John's Liberal will come 3rd behind an NDP who will place 2nd]

    CPC 1
    Liberal - 3

    CPC - 5
    Liberal - 3
    NDP - - 3

    CPC - 6
    Lib - 3
    NDP - 1

    CPC - 6
    Lib - 10 (worst showing in history)
    BQ - 59

    CPC - 64
    Lib - 27
    NDP - 15

    CPC - 8
    Lib - 2
    NDP - 4

    CPC - 13
    Lib - 1 (Ralph will BARELY hang on)

    CPC - 28

    CPC - 22
    Lib - 6
    NDP - 8

    Lib 1

    NDP - 1

    Lib - 1

    By Blogger Liam O'Brien, at 3:37 p.m.  

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