Saturday, January 21, 2006

Final Predictions: Quebec

2004 Results

BQ 54 seats (49%)
Lib 21 seats (34%)
CPC 0 seats (9%)
NDP 0 seats (5%)

Riding to Watch: Outremont

Jean Lapierre has been the laughing stock of Parliament Hill since becoming Paul Martin's Quebec Lieutenant. Lapierre represented Paul Martin's desire to cozy up to separatists, in the hope of sweeping Quebec. But Lapierre, while being a competent Transport Minister, has been a disaster as a political organizer and strategist, and the Liberals had to turn to Stephane Dion to save their bacon in 2004. Recent polls have Lapierre neck and neck in the riding, with a remarkable 32% combined support for the NDP and Green Party. No doubt, these are federalists who just can't stomach Lapierre. I'm going to predict this riding stays Liberal, but not by much.

2006 Outlook

The big news in Quebec this election has been the surge of the Conservatives. Not only will this win Jean Lapierre his referendum election, but it will also end the doomsday national unity scenarios of a Tory government without a voice in Quebec. Quebecers love a winner and are certainly hoping to get a voice in Cabinet.

Lawrence Cannon, Josee Verner, and Maxime Bernier are the three candidates the Tories have targeted from the start, and I expect all three of them to win. Jonquiere has gotten a lot of media buzz after the Liberal candidate kinda-sorta stepped aside, conceding defeat to the Tories. I also think Levis-Bellechasse, Megantic-L'Erable, and Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere (boy, that's a mouthful) could swing Tory. The problem the Conservatives have is that their organization on the ground is weak so they won't be as effective at bringing out the vote as the BQ. I'll mark them down for 6 seats, with each and every one of the winners heading to the Privy Council.

The Liberal campaign, once again in the hands of Jean Lapierre, has been rather...umm...not good. Coupled with some vote splitting with the Tories and I think the Liberals may be heading for a complete wipe-out outside of the Island of Montreal. I'm going to predict that either Jacques Saada or Marcel Proulx hang on, but I can't see any other seats outside of the Island staying with them.

As for Montreal itself, it's gotten to the point where you can list the Liberal MPs by name: Scarpaleggia, Cotler, Jennings, Patry, Dion, Pacetti, and Robillard are all safe. I know a lot of people think Paul Martin might lose his seat but that's probably a little far fetched. Frulla and Pettigrew are gone for sure but they should be able to hang on to a few other seats (like Lapierre's) here and there. Add it up, and I'll give the party which used to win 74 seats in La Belle Province, 11.

Finally, I'm going to give Portneuf to independent candidate Andre Arthur. Arthur is a former radio host and poll numbers show him in the lead. Perhaps he'll be the next Parliament's version of Chuck Cadman.

So, add it all up, and you're left with:

2006 Predictions:
Bloc 57 (up 3)
Liberals 11 (down 10)
Conservatives 6 (up 6)
Independent 1 (up 1)


  • Give Gatineau to the Bloc for sure, but Hull-Aylmer? That would be quite the loss. Not the MP, he's terrible, but the Libs losing Hull-Aylmer? If it happens, wow.

    By Anonymous notbobchiarelli, at 6:53 PM  

  • I conquer!

    But I also digress. Add two more to the Conservative numbers (to 8) at the expense of the Bloc (to 55). Grits at 10-11 sounds about right. The Conservatives are borrowing the ADQ machinery on the South Shore which should help their turnout.

    By Anonymous herringchoker, at 9:52 PM  

  • Why did Paul Martin say today that Stephen Harper has never travelled outside continental North America?

    Does he not recall going to the largest televised event in history, Pope John Paul II's funeral, and being in the same airplane as Harper on both the outgoing and return flights?

    Does he not remember being on several other important official functions with Stephen Harper overseas?

    Or is he lying?

    By Anonymous Chris from Victoria, BC, at 9:58 PM  

  • CG, I'm quite impressed by your knowledge of Québec politics (unless you've copied this from a Québec blog, which I don't think is the case). Not bad for an Anglo from Calgary.

    I think your predictions will reveal quite accurate.

    By Anonymous Alex, at 10:06 PM  

  • I'm leaning towards 8-12 tory seats on my Quebec possibles list.

    Lapierre is toast in Outremont.

    Amongst other faux pas, he has been none too privately telling almost anyone who knows him that he'd rather lose than sit in opposition and would quit if elected.

    Duceppe's been freakin out because his vote has bottomed out at 40% in some polls--it seems the tory rise has occurred in large part due to soft nationalists leaving their decade long parking spots chez le bloc...BUT in places like Quebec City the Libs are just where the tories finished last time out--at a pathetic 9 freakin %.

    As a general rule for every 100 theoretical poll-counted votes gained by the tories, they have split off almost evenly from the bloc and the gLibs.

    The gLibs are in free fall here and I expect a half-dozen surprises with Andre Arthur a shoo-in and the man who will make parliament an interesting forum in the years to come.

    Denis Coderre, the glib M.P. most closely identified with being unusually friendly with some of the adscam players, has been in some hot water in his Mtl. North but is boasting he's there to stay. If he goes, the Glibs will for sure be third behind the bloc (in total seats for purposes of official oppo party honours), which is where they seem to be heading anyway.

    The tories could also elect a couple on Mtl.'s South shore but there's been little enthusiasm amongst Charest's already demoralized urban/suburban Mtl riding organizers for working hard to turn out voters for tory candidates, few of whom have any pointage accomplished to identify their voters by name, address & tel. no.

    On the other hand francophone gLib voters are reluctant to vote; of those who do get prompted or persuaded to turn out, approx. 25% will vote CPC in disgust anyway with another 25% (esp. those under 55) franco prov. gLibs swaying towards the bloc rather than be associated with Chrtien/Martin.

    By Anonymous Scott Disher aka MoDuv, at 10:57 PM  

  • What might have been:

    WARNING: While the following may seem implausible, that's only because we've seen revealed the REAL Paul Martin, and we know he's not capable of this.


    Ottawa, February 14, 2006

    In his first interview after his majority election win yesterday, Prime Minister Paul Martin invited members of the Parliamentary Press Gallery to his office for an informal Q&A on the just-completed campaign.

    CTV: Mr. Prime Minister, a lot of Canadians thought the Liberal Party was irretrievably damaged by the Sponsorship scandal, but you seem to have turned that perception around. To what do you credit your majority victory yesterday?

    PM: I think it really comes down to my decision, in March of last year, to go forward with an acknowledgement that, whatever the findings of Justice Gomery, the Liberal Party had to clean house. That wasn't easy to do - there were years of division for which I was largely responsible - I allowed the party to be divided at a time when it most needed to come together. Therefore, I decided that I needed to do two things: To reach out to the dissaffected members of my own party, recognizing the important contributions they have made to our electoral success. And to reach out to my political opponents, allowing them to, by consensus, choose the date of the next federal election.

    CBC: At the time, you were told that was a foolish move, that it was almost certain the Opposition parties would demand an election shortly after the Gomery report was handed down. Weren't you worried their timing would hurt your chances?

    PM: First, I had respect for the Canadian people - that if they saw real movement to deal with the Sponsorship scandal before Justice Gomery's report, they would see it for what it was - a plundering of the public purse that, while inexcusable and reprehensible, was still isolated to some who put their interests above the party's interest. When I revealed which of my candidates received the money, and required that the party reimburse every penny identified by an independent forensic auditor, it hurt our finances, but helped our credibility.

    More than anything else, however, I was determined to pursue a politics of respect and accountability. We demanded of Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton specific things for which the voters could hold them accountable. We provided the same. I suppose that when the voters recognized that, in the main, I wasn't trying to buy their vote, and that Mr. Harper and I weren't really all that far apart on most issues, they made their choice based on the confidence they have that our strong economy would continue to be strong, and that our problems with accountability have been dealt with.

    Global: And what about Mr. Harper. This is his second loss, and it's expected he will be stepping down. What do you say to the Conservative Party as they face the task of replacing him?

    PM: I can honestly say that I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Harper, and wish him the very best. I can only hope that each party, including my own, would always be led by a man of his intelligence and integrity.

    TVA: Seriously, Mr. Martin?

    PM: Seriously. I'm glad I won - Mr. Harper and I have different approaches, and I think Canadians have agreed with the approach I want to pursue - but there is a lot that Mr. Harper has contributed, and will contribute, to the success of our nation. He deserves our thanks.

    By Blogger Patrick, at 11:05 PM  

  • CG: What about Brome-Mississquoi? There is word (seriously) that Heward Grafftey will win for the Progressive Canadian Party there.

    By Blogger John Murney, at 11:59 PM  

  • I can understand supporting a candidate but every single blogger in Canada should be slamming PAUL MARTIN as a lying bastard. There has never been a PM that is more disgusting and deceitful during a campaign.

    By Anonymous StandUpForCanada, at 12:16 AM  

  • The way the Tory support is going, I do not see how the BQ can gain seats. My understanding is that they will loose some to the Tories.

    By Blogger Jason Cherniak, at 12:38 AM  

  • IRONY:


    Stephen Harper, Toronto, Ontario
    Paul Martin, Windsor, Ontario
    Jean Chretien, Shawinigan, Quebec
    Kim Campbell, Port Alberni, British Columbia
    Brian Mulroney, Baie-Comeau, Quebec
    John Turner, Richmond, England
    Joe Clark, High River, Alberta
    Pierre Trudeau, Montreal, Quebec
    Lester Pearson, Newtonbrook, Ontario
    John Diefenbaker, Neustadt, Ontario
    Louis St-Laurent, Compton, Quebec
    Richard Bennett, Hopewell, New Brunswick
    William Mackenzie King, Kitchener, Ontario
    Arthur Meighen, Anderson, Ontario
    Sir Robert Borden, Grand Pre, Nova Scotia
    Sir Wilfrid Laurier, Saint-Lin, Canada East
    Sir Charles Tupper, Amherst, Nova Scotia
    Sir Mackenzie Bowell, Rickinghall, England
    Sir John Thompson, Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Sir John Abbott, St. Andrews, Lower Canada
    Alexander Mackenzie, Dunkeld, Scotland
    Sir John Macdonald, Glasgow, Scotland

    By Anonymous Joan, a Liberal (not a Martinite), at 12:47 AM  

  • Stand up for ALBERTA

    leave CANADA

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:22 AM  

  • Alex; A lot of my predictions are based on the Election Prediction Project...and various news stories I've read.

    notbob; Hull has been Liberal for a LONG time, but if the Tories can steal some votes there, the Bloc could very well take it. It's not a certainty, but it wouldn't surprise me.

    John; I think Brome will go Bloc. The Tories have a big road to go in that riding.

    Jason; Vote spliting between the Libs and Tories will help the Bloc. Their popular vote will definitely drop, but I think their seat total will go out. They'll lose a few seats to the Tories but will snatch a lot from the Libs

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:02 AM  

  • "There is word (seriously) that Heward Grafftey will win for the Progressive Canadian Party there."

    Yeah, and there is word (seriously) that I can toot the words to O Canada out my ass in both official languages.

    Equally credible.

    By Anonymous groovy on granville, at 2:10 AM  

  • Why is Paul Martin avoiding the media, refusing to appear on Question Period today ?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:46 PM  

  • CG's predictions for Quebec are excellent, but I agree that Lapierre is toast. There is a small chance the NDP will win in Outremont.

    The Bloc is bleeding soft federalists to the Conservatives, but vote splitting will mean their seat totals will go up. I predict BQ 60, Liberals 9, CPC 5, independent 1. Eight of the Liberal ridings will be in Montreal, and they will hold on to Hull-Aylmer.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:40 PM  

  • is reporting on widening poll numbers, as Paul Martin had his Bono moment last night in Winnipeg.

    When Craig Oliver is saying Martin should at least go out with dignity, you have to wonder what any Canadians over the age of 40 are thinking today seeing ancient old Paul Martin pretending to be the latest Rolling Stone.

    Perhaps Paul is simply getting ready to make nice with Warren Kinsella and wants to play in Warren's band, SFH?


    By Blogger The Infozone, at 2:42 PM  

  • Real Ridings to Watch from a Quebecker:


    If either or both fall to the Conservatives, Canada is in a new era of political history.

    Better get reinventing yourselves Grits.

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 2:42 PM  

  • Hey, CHECK THIS OUT! It’s a ‘Godfather’ spoof election video: that just got released.

    It’s not your typical TV political ad – very funny and creative. Let me know what you all think…

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:47 PM  

  • Th& c*ck s^ck!ng b@st@rds wr*te !t !n Q^!ckt!m&. F*r th& r&c*rd, Q^!ckt!m& bl*ws, @lb&rt@.

    ! c@n't s&& !t @nd ! w@nt !t s* b@d. !f y*^ c@n't d* b&tt&r th@n th@t, y*^ sh*^ld st!ck t* y*^r kn!tt!ng.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:57 AM  

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