Monday, July 25, 2005

The Unofficial Race

With the Bob Rae talk bellow, I got to thinking about the Liberal Leadership race. I did some Liberal Leadership Speculation last winter but a lot has happened since then, so it’s likely worth revisiting.


The Contenders

John Manley: Likely still the front-runner and, in my opinion, he has the most substance of any of the serious candidates. But his obsession with not wanting to be disloyal to the leader is hurting him vis-à-vis the other contenders on the ground game.
My advice: Participate in a US flag burning or something to dispel the “pro-American” label.

Scott Brison: Rumour has it that Herle and a lot of the other Martinites are quietly laying the groundwork for a Scott Brison leadership run. And, you know, if he loses he can always jump to the NDP or Bloc.
My advice: Say anything of substance at some point. So far, he’s been nothing more than a pretty “let Justice Gomery do his work” doll.

Martin Cauchon: Has developed a habit of “coincidently” bumping into Liberals at conventions and conferences.
My advice: Don’t talk to your fishing buddy Jean Lafleur…ever again.

Frank McKenna: If there’s a leadership race within the next year or two, he likely won’t run. It will likely take him at least two or three years to get on the same page with the government on missile defense anyways.
My advice: Make sure nobody reminds Liberal delegates of the record of Provincial Premiers who believe they are Prime Minister material.


Those who have deluded themselves into believing they are contenders

Joe Volpe: Unless he goes Tony Soprano over the other candidates, it ain’t gonna happen.

Maurizio Bevilacqua: I keep getting mail-outs from his guy explaining how Maurizio slayed the deficit and orchestrated eight straight balanced budgets.


The Academics

Michael Ignatieff: He’s definitely been the hot topic at Liberal barbecues this summer. How he does in Cabinet will make it or break it for him.

Stephane Dion: Hasn’t been organizing but he’d make for a very intriguing and popular candidate if he did run. His best chance would likely be at a Liberal Leadership convention which happens about a month after a PQ victory in Quebec.


Remember Me?

Brian Tobin: For a guy who likes to make a lot of noise, he’s been really quiet. I doubt he’ll run but the guy did call his autobiography “All in Good Time” so ya never know.

Bob Rae: The mere fact that people are actually speculating about Bob Rae running shows how shallow the talent pool is.


Intriguing, but I wouldn’t count on it

Belinda Stronach: “Being Prime Minister is a very complex job. But if we just grow the economy and bake a bigger economic pie…”

Ken Dryden: Deflecting shots from right wingers since 1971.

Dalton McGuinty: Maybe in 5 or 6 years…


Token Western Candidate

Reg Alcock: Honestly, I think the Liberal Party will likely look a bit higher up in the gene pool for their next leader. Sorry, Reg.

David Emerson: You know, because it might be the only possible way for him to ever get his name in the news. I doubt that even political geeks could name Canada’s Industry Minister.

Ralph Goodale Jack Layton: Only because the Finance Minister is always a possible candidate.

Ujjal Dosanj: Ha ha. Just kidding.


Token Female Candidate

Anne McLellan: Would allow her to dust off a few more Richard Nixon campaign slogans.

Umm…uhh…ahh….I dunno….Sheila?

73 Comments:

  • They all sound like loosers to me -but then again, they are Liberals -so that doesn't surprise me.

    I guess the choice will be between who can be the biggest rip off artist or who can eliminate any whiff of democracy first.

    I say any one of those choices you offered would be good.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:07 PM  

  • The biggest losers are the one who throw tantrums hiding behind a screen. Canadians know that Tories are pseudo politicians who say one thing and do another thing and don’t have the balls to stand up to express their views.

    Bart, personally I think the anonymous option should be blocked.

    On the leadership front, Joe volpe is definitely running, and one surprise candidate could be Denis Coderre. Wonder what Alan Rock is thinking about it.

    By Anonymous Vijay Sappani, at 12:29 PM  

  • The House of Commons seemed to have a deficit of strong leaders save for the sudden rise of Jack Layton. With Jean Chretien's passing from politics, that line of Liberal greats stretching to Pearson has finally ended with no one particularly well suited to take his place. On your list, John Manley is certainly the most qualified and his perceived Conservative leanings might bode well for some of the more moderate Liberals; however, Manley has no ounce of charisma to work with. To be honest, the only person who had what it takes to eventually be a leader was Sheila Copps; her position on the fringes clearly would have gotten in the way of truly being effective. I like the idea of Allan Rock...

    By Blogger Jeremy, at 12:51 PM  

  • Hey, Paul said he needs 10 years to accomplish his very, very ambitious agenda.

    How do you guys know any of these people will be alive when that decade of Martin is over?

    PS. Manley makes too many stupid moves to win - NHL tax breaks, dump the queen mvmt when she's landing in Canada, etc...

    PPS. Since Scott and Belinda are on the list, why not think about other prominent Tories - say, for example, Stephen Harper.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:01 PM  

  • HAHA, Harper, what a fucking joke. There is no way that Harper will ever be PM. I find it humourous when cons accuse Libs of being rip off artists, democracy killers, baby killers, faghags, etc. If the Libs are that bad, just beat them, it can not be that hard to do, can it????

    By Blogger more anonymous than anonymous, at 1:04 PM  

  • The Libs aren't all bad. just mostly.

    And we haven't been so disgusted with Liberal democracy-killing baby-eaters until this Spring. We didn't get our spring election - mostly because you did a little more baby-killing and democracy-strangling.

    So, we haven't beaten you yet because you'll do anything to avoid an election.

    That, by the way, is how you beat people in a democracy - I mean, a non-Martinized democracy.

    Hold an election - let's see Liberals come out to support Paul Martin!!! There's a joke!

    Will it be 30 days after Gomery? Of course not!!! Another broken promise is coming....

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:40 PM  

  • If there is a leadership race in the near future, it will be because the Gomery Inquiry caused Martin to collapse and embarrassed him enough to resign. So any Liberal contender to replace him would *have* to be someone outside the Liberal government during the Chretien years, otherwise it would be the same old stupid nonsense they are hitting Martin with. By that criteria, I think Brison and McKenna have the best shot at being credible candidates to replace Martin.

    But this is just idle speculation. Even if Martin loses the next election (which I don't think he would), it likely won't be by a lot and he will want to topple the Tory minority government and come back with his own majority government victory. I think a timeframe of 5-10 years for a replacement candidate makes much more sense to think about at this point.

    By Anonymous ryan, at 2:21 PM  

  • The only victorious, effective national Liberal leaders have been from the left.

    Those from the right, from Alexander Mackenzie up to Martin have always fallen short.

    This is so because the qualities of the left -- a strong government, inclusion, and conciliation -- have always been the qualities needed to govern Canada.

    For this reason, leadership candidates on the right like Manley or McKenna just do not have what it takes to lead the country nationally.

    Who that leaves, I'm not sure. Cauchon, possibly, though his past associations may be a liability. Otherwise, it could be a "three wise men" scenario.

    By Anonymous Simon Pole, at 3:14 PM  

  • "Those who have deluded themselves into believing they are contenders"

    basically means

    "italo-canadians who dont realize theyre thinking above their station"

    i think id vote for bevilacqua (i think i still have liberal papers...) simply because he told martin what ive always wanted to tell him, but have been too polite to do so. he busted his ass working for martin, and then got the shaft in favour of such intelligent italians as albina guarnieri (WTFWTF!!) and volpe. i think bevilacquas first-hand experience of how martin is a wimp and his little assistants are utter and complete d'bags is the most character-building experience of any liberal in this boring arsed session.

    By Blogger angela, at 3:28 PM  

  • Oh anonymous, if I knew who you were I would offer to bet you on who will win the next election. See, you know who I am but I do not know who you are, so we may never make that bet, but if you honestly think the Tories have a snowballs chance in hell of winning the next election you are insane. Harper is a complete joke, the entire nation is laughing at him. And joke candidates like Stephen Harper never win

    By Blogger more anonymous than anonymous, at 4:05 PM  

  • Oddly, I'm not sure that it would be wise for the Liberals to replace Martin right now.

    You have to admit, he's done some good maneuvering in a difficult climate lately. (He's actually moved up in my estimation - an unusual thing for a sitting Prime Minister)

    I'd guess that if the next election returns another minority, then Paul Martin might be replaceable. (The localized sneering of Conservatives from Alberta notwithstanding...)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:25 PM  

  • Since The Left love telling us who should replace Harper...

    John Manley: Carve this in stone: There is a zero percent chance that John Manley or anyone who can honestly describe themselves as a "devout Christian" can lead this bunch of Liberals. Uh-uh, no way, not a chance.

    Bevilacqua: The other day I'm in Chapters flipping through some Italian-Canadian magazine when I come across an article pimping Bevilacqua as Canada's first "ethnic" prime minister. I can see minorites rallying behind him. Fake Catholic, so the anti-religious wing of the Liberals might tolerate him.

    Ignatieff: I'm still mad I had to buy his shitty book for PoliSci 100. Has about same chance as Manley.

    By Blogger v, at 5:24 PM  

  • "Ignatieff: I'm still mad I had to buy his shitty book for PoliSci 100. Has about same chance as Manley."

    Agreed! His academic work is dreadful! The mental masturbation is so pungent you can almost smell it exuding from the pages.

    To be fair: Trudeau said one thing in his pre-political life writings and then did the exact opposite once he came to power. Perhaps Ignatieff would act the same way.

    Matt

    By Anonymous Tory Matt, at 6:21 PM  

  • Oh...

    And off of that list of potential contenders, I pick Manley. That's sad sad sad. There's such an embarrassing lack of leadership in both the Liberal and Conservative parties.

    By Anonymous Tory Matt, at 6:23 PM  

  • Oh, come now children. We've known who the leadership contenders would be for the 2007 race since '96. There's always a ~10 year lag with Liberals (Manley's vault to contendership and Trudeau's appearance notwithstanding). St. Laurent, Pearson, Turner, Chretien, and Martin could all be seen coming a long ways off.

    So: Manley, Tobin, Rock, McKenna, Cauchon. Throw in Brison and Volpe for the tag-alongs, and one of Rae/Iggy for the Sheila effect.

    Ending with Rock and Manley in a dead heat, with more blood on the walls than a Tory summer (won't call the winner - that's what written convention pledges and the like are for). Why those two? Because they alone can do three crucial things the others can't:
    1. point to experience,
    2. point to dues pad,
    3. do the above in French.

    And, if you have a gander at what Wells has to say about innovation (truly progressive thinking, methinks), the straight-talk I like to think Manley had and still has, you'll see why I like him best.

    By Blogger matt, at 7:27 PM  

  • Has to be Ignatieff. Yes he's an intellectual in a party that seems to do a lot better when they run guys who are non- or even anti-intellectual, but thanks to wonders of textbooks (mine was an upper-year) we'll all be very well aware of his positions in advance of his crossing over into federal politics.
    Manley proved last time out he doesn't have what it takes to last in a horserace, even one that's rigged. Allan "The file is closed" Rock blundered every portolio he ever had. Brison may be good, but the country isn't fully even accepting of gay marriage, there's no way they'd accept a gay PM. Belinda's best hope right now is to steal as many ideas as possible from the "Next Great PM" Contest. Volpe doesn't have a hope in hell. McKenna is doing wonders at his post and should stay there lest there be any more anti-Canadian flame-ups from Washington. That leaves Ignatieff and Layton, and this country hates deficits.

    By Blogger RGM, at 8:39 PM  

  • Those are some pretty slime pickin's, CG. ouch.

    By Blogger daveberta, at 12:14 AM  

  • ouch *slim* not *slime*

    Talk about asking for jokes...

    D :P

    By Blogger daveberta, at 12:15 AM  

  • I can't help thinking that McKenna and Tobin are the only real options. Manley has bad political judgement and Brison will have to wait until next time. Although I really like the three male Western candidates, they don't speak French. McLellan, although I once would have supported her, no longer does a lot for me. We really can't have somebody from Quebec and Ignatieff has no political experience.

    In many ways, I would actually give strong consideration to Dryden if he wants to run. The guy is popular in Quebec and quite competenet. He just needs to grow into the political mould.

    By Blogger Jason Cherniak, at 10:14 AM  

  • If Ignatieff is serious about leadership he should run in the next election. Give the guy a cabinet post and see if he can perform. Even Trudeau had to make his bones in the House and cabinet.

    By Anonymous wpg_guy, at 10:19 AM  

  • i would wager a small amount of money on Maurizio being a compromise candidate...but again i said a small amount...

    By Blogger Stephen, at 11:47 AM  

  • I'm still laughing at Angela's "WTFWTF." That's the keenest analysis I've seen all day, and more insightful than anything I'm likely to write.

    By Anonymous Paul Wells, at 12:20 PM  

  • Manley, or Dion if he shows some interest in the job. Manley has experience and good general knowledge (massive time spent in industry, plus stints in finance and at foreign affairs). He speaks fluent French. As for his charisma deficit, Martin/Harper aren't any better, and charisma is not the primary indicator of good, competent leadership. Also, What are you talking about Richard? "Manley proved last time he doesn't have what it takes to last in a horserace, even one that's rigged"- Martin had been organizing for ten years. Everyone knew Martin was going to win. Obviously Manley has some drawbacks (too right-wing, Pro-US), but given the weak field, he's the only viable choice. For those fo you backing Ignatieff- he isn't Trudeau, and should spend some time in cabinet first.

    By Anonymous Jonathan W, at 12:47 PM  

  • Very funny shit-kick schticking CG.

    'Kinda makes one think PM jr. oughta stick around for 4 more (yawn) years.

    As for the estimable S. Dion, he's un-electable in Quebec and a true dweeb to boot.

    So far, the best choice seems to be 'none of the above'.

    Having said that I like Beaker a lot but he's sort of a John Major-like/Chretien-era remnant.

    Herle & co. fronting Brison is an all too sick-makingly plausible scenario.

    That would be just the ticket to drag Warren Kinsella back into the fray front and centre.

    I think the gLibs oughta go for a female leader in her mid-forties... but she'd have to be competent, comely & charismatic--an unbeatable but tough-to-find combo.

    Finally, I wonder who would have the Desmarais' backing--shurely not Iggybob...has ex-Power corp dacha dumb waiter Cauchon got the inside
    track? Shurely not....


    Anyone who actually knows ought to respond.

    By Anonymous MoDuv, at 2:12 PM  

  • richard, upper year poli sci classes and the real world... do they even correlate? sure, youve been served up a healthy dose of safe liberal (in the international relations sense of the world) pap, but writing a textbook is a lot more like blogging than running a country. its blogging with footnotes.

    ignatieffs academic writing appeals to us middle class university kids because he makes the world look exactly the way we need it to look to feel safe. there are problems, so poli sci majors will be dispatched to go save the earth, but in addition to these problems, theres this overarching grand theory that gives us the orientation to solve them all (even though said theoretical framework has existed since wwi and hasnt lived up to its hype).

    he teaches at a school that has belinda stronach on a board and i believe they receive kim campbell as a lecturer from time to time.

    yeah, its harvard, but theyre not the most innnovative politics department in north america.

    By Blogger angela, at 3:52 PM  

  • I'll run! I'm attractive, competent, and I could work on the charismatic part. Oh wait. I'm only 26. And of course, young people don't have good ideas, are inexperienced, and should be patted on the head and told to be quiet while the adults talk.

    I think they should pick someone really young, someone new, someone who isn't afraid, and doesn't owe anything to anyone. They should do it even if it means the Tories get in for a term. Show some GUTS, dammit!

    By Blogger Alison, at 5:32 PM  

  • What a serious talk here. I just came by to say hi

    I liked what i read although it was a lot.....

    By Blogger Renee Wagemans, at 6:15 PM  

  • Here's my take...in no particular order.

    Bevilacqua: Smart guy, still young, setting himself up for a good show. His ideal would be a surprise 3rd place finish in a 6 or 7 person race, and he may pull that off. Unlike some others, he knows that these things require elbow grease and hard work.

    Rock: Would have picked up 20% last time, even with the membership rules in ON, BC, etc. He aint ever coming back, which is a shame. Great guy, shitty political instincts.

    Volpe: I know you're not suppossed to say never, but I'm saying "never." Never will I vote Liberal again if this dork comes anywhere close to winning the race. Heard an interesting tidbit about him the other day, apparently he's never worn a pair of jeans in his life...not once, I can't vote for a person like that.

    Brison: Like him, even more since I've met him a few times. Liked him as a Tory too. Think he would do a fantastic job. Hate to join the cliche chorus, but we are not ready for someone with his evening habits holding down the fort at 24 Sussex. I think he would do well if he ran though. His French is weak.

    Belinda: She will not run this time, but might the time after. She is pretty, but doesn't seem to have a lot of substance to her. I hear she's "struggling" with the portfolio, whatever that means. She is richer than fuck, so I would never count out her resources, time after next for her.

    Tobin: Where the hell has he been? I don't think a few skeletons in his closet would be enough to take a guy this good and this ambitious out of the game completely. I would of thought he would have spent the past 3 years making piles of cash and learning to speak reasonable francais. I guess a lot of Atlantic Canadians don't care for the guy either. I like him, just don't know where he is.

    Ignatieff: Saw his speech at convention, wasn't too impressed. Liked that he was counter to the prevailing wisdom of the Martin PMO/PCO on a few points, thought that took some balls. But this Canada's place in the world and human rights/international relations bullshit bores me to tears. Like to hear what he has to say about farming on the prairies or infrastructure in the GTA someday. I hope he won't come close to winning.

    Cauchon: Never met him, they say he's a good organiser. I wouldn't underestimate him for two reasons...first, he seems to be out there and working at it, and second, he occupies the left almost to himself within this phantom race. His English is so-so apparently, and he may have some stink from the JC days on him. He may surprise.

    Copps: I think she's done. Always loved her message, thought she was the wrong person to deliever it for whatever reason.

    Anne McLellan: Great Minister, weak politician, especially in her home province. Might serve the dual purpose of filling the slot for a strong female and a credible western candidate, but none of the western candidates can win this race methinks.

    McKenna: If he goes, he may be the one to beat. I don't know much about him, other than the telephone soliciation business in New Brunswick appreciates all the work he did to diversify the economy there. Seems to be doing an decent job south of the border after a rocky start. This is the name that Martin fartcatchers mention most often when they can remove themselves from the "we're here for at least another 4-6 years" talking points.

    Manley: Would do the best job of it, but probably won't win because of his charisma issues, and the fact that he won't work hard for it. Who the fuck enters a ten-year race in the last three months, then drops out when he realises it aint there...duh. Not even sure he'll go this time, if he does, he may wait till it's too late again to do anything about it. That's a shame, I'm a left-leaning Lib, but I think he would be the best of a poor field.

    Bob Rae/other outsider: Mercer is an idiot. No phantom candidate is coming from the promised land to deliever us from evil. Who would want to take over a party that has a good chance of spending the better part of a decade in opposition, or alternating back and forth between weak minority governments. The saviour isn't coming, those of us who are Libs out there are going to have to choose from this weak field.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:42 PM  

  • Must be somebody from Quebec who can recapture the Quebec vote .... because without more of the Quebec vote, the Liberals will not be able to attain a majority govt.

    And don't count out Martin yet because he did not scheme for the last decade to rise to PM to just give up without a fight. The guy may be corrupt as hell but he is still a crafty politician.

    Simply put, Martin's political problem is to somehow coalesce the 70% Canadian lefty vote into the Liberal party ..... and one way is to merge the NDP into the Liberal party. Layton would make a wonderful left wing Liberal cabinet minister of finance ... since he already is functioning as such.

    My guess/choice for the next leader of the Liberals is Jack Layton -- he's from Quebec sorta, and with the addition of the lefty vote he brings, that will put the Liberals over the top for a majority govt ... which you need if you are going to rule and plunder the treasury with impunity.

    But before Layton can assume the mantle of leadership, Martin wants to complete at least 2 terms as prime minister of a majority govt ... so he and the PowerCorp interests can complete their mega-plans with China ... you know that story, don't you .. sure you do because that may become the biggest Liberal trough of all time .... slurp ... !!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:14 AM  

  • 70% lefty vote in Canada?????

    So, that would mean Roger Galloway and Ralph Goodale are lefties???

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:15 AM  

  • Good points anonymous 1
    anonymous 2, 70%, a little high i think
    anonymous 3: I agree, galloway is not left, wappel is not left, anonymous 2 seems out to lunch

    Overall, best post goes to anonymous 1, and I know who you are you anonymous pussy

    By Blogger more anonymous than anonymous, at 11:01 AM  

  • I like CalgaryGrit's analysis of Cauchon and his 'chance' encounters with other Liberals. Anyone at the Western YL's Camp Finally Free? Well Cauchon sure was. By 'coincidence'.

    It totally backfired. People were saying, 'who the fuck does Cauchon think he is?' A coincidental encounter with a former francophone Cabinet Minister just doesn't happen in Winnipeg. He also had an organizer/cheerleader there, who didn't pay delegate fees but seemed to enjoy the food and butting in line. Not many Camp Finally Free delegates were impressed.

    Add Cauchon to the list of the delusional if he thinks he can get delegate support outside of Quebec (can he even get support inside Quebec? Lapierre still has a great deal of control).

    Scary as it is, Volpe is probably the most organized as it stands, at least in Ontario. But CalgaryGrit has left Ianno off the list, who is most certainly considering running as well. Volpe, Bevilacqua and Ianno will split the GTA Italiano vote and even alone, none have the capacity to go all the way.

    Let us not forget that McKenna was not only pro-life, but anti-choice. AND, lest we forget that McKenna either is or was a member of the Carlyle Canada Advisory Board, of the much-loved Carlyle Group. That should go over REALLY well with the current batch of Liberals.

    It's too bad that Bob Rae was such a terrible premiere, he probably wouldn't make a bad leader. But as mentioned in the G&M, big-business and Ontarians in general see him as hazardous to the economy. I don't think the Party will pick a leader that will erode support in ON.

    Manley. He might be a smart and decent guy, but his pro-American, pro-business stance might prove toxic to Quebec and leftish delegates alike. I don't think he has much organizational capacity left.

    Scott Brison. Herle and Co. are rumoured to have abandoned Brison for now, in favour of McKenna. But you can certainly bet that if McKenna runs, Brison will be working against him. Obviously there is no chance for two Atlantic leaders in a row. Also, as CG points out, he needs to say something of substance. Problem is, there isn't much substance there.

    Belinda....too soon. Also substance problems.

    If Ignatieff gets serious, he has a good shot. His oratory certainly is rousing. I think it will depend on if he makes it to MP/Minister first and what the media decide to do to him. But a leader with vision would certainly be a treat!!!

    Other than (and including some of) those above, no one has a chance.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:46 AM  

  • Let's see...Cauchon, cheerleader, didn't pay, ate the food, butted in...I get..A.J. Chopra was back in Winnipeg

    By Anonymous wpg_guy, at 2:06 PM  

  • As the Quebec Harpermaniac, I must say:

    PLEEEEEAAASSSEEE pick Joe Volpe. Get him in charge of the Liberals right away. PLEEEAAAASSSEEE!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:11 PM  

  • Regarding the comments of anonymous three posts up- what do you mean Manley has no organizational capacity left? He spent ten years in industry, and has the kind of contacts in business that are really only rivalled by McKenna. And with Ignatieff and McKenna being listed, being pro-American is not something that the other candidates can make an issue of.

    By Anonymous Jonathan W, at 3:27 PM  

  • wpg_guy, I'm not sure what his name was, I did not get an opportunity to meet him. East-Indian looking fellow.

    I'm relatively newly involved and from Alberta, so I don't know the regular faces.

    By Anonymous Anonymous 9:46 AM, at 3:30 PM  

  • Bevilacqua is by far the most able. He will surprise a lot of people with his support even if he doesn't win. He will have considerable support from the Chretien wing of the party.

    Manley's pro-American values are the best thing about him. Most Canadians would agree, bit I doubt if most Liberals would. The business community may push him to run, but I expect he'll have a rough time convincing the Parrish wing of the party to vote for him.

    By Anonymous Two Cents, at 3:39 PM  

  • "Must be somebody from Quebec who can recapture the Quebec vote .... because without more of the Quebec vote, the Liberals will not be able to attain a majority govt."

    must not be somebody from quebec? sponsorship scandal...?

    then again, i suppose the west is a write off (thanks central canada liberals, we think youre invisible too), the maritimes oscillate and are tiny, and ontario is a given.

    isnt that the kind of thinking and strategy that saw the liberals make no new ground (yet lose old ground) in the last vote?

    By Blogger angela, at 3:44 PM  

  • That's A.J. all right..he's a huge Cauchon fartcatcher

    By Anonymous wpg_guy, at 3:50 PM  

  • Let me help you Grits out:

    None of these people will be the next Grit Leader.

    10 years from now, Justin Trudeau will pirouette into the helm of the grits.

    Meanwhile, Ben Mulroney will croon his way to the Tory helm.

    Ahhhh. A dreamy contest: Mulroney and Trudeau in the same election! Wow!

    Oh, and I hate to tell you this, Mulroney wins by a landslide!!!

    Pirouette that!

    --Quebec Harpermaniac

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:24 PM  

  • Quebec Harpermaniac: could we get Kiefer Sutherland to run the NDP while we're at it? (he doesn't have the Douglas name, but he's got the genetics)

    By Anonymous Jonathan W, at 6:02 PM  

  • Jonathan W, connections in business do not equal organizational capacity. To win leadership you must to have organization within the Party. You need to be out there (perhaps more subtly than Cauchon), letting people know you're in the race and why you're best for the job.

    Half of Manley's people jumped ship before the last one ended, and most of the rest have placed their bets elsewhere. Most party hacks have picked horses at this point and I have not come across a single one that's picked Manley.

    He's a good guy, but Liberals will not choose him as leader. His resemblance to Beaker does not help him either.

    By Anonymous Anonymous 9:46 AM, at 10:01 AM  

  • Anonymous: I suppose only time will tell, but everytime I've seen a list of leadership contenders, Manley's name is at the top of the list. As to organization within the party, after ten years in cabinet I really find it difficult to believe that Manley has lost all his Liberal supporters and connections in such a short time. On the other hand, he doesn't seem to be quite as aggresive as say, Volpe, so it wouldn't really surprise me if his support has eroded.

    By Anonymous Jonathan W, at 10:36 AM  

  • I really like Michael Ignatieff. I've head many of his talks on everything from terrorism to economics, and personally, I think we need a leader with that level of intellectual horsepower.

    By Blogger Raemius, at 12:02 PM  

  • I'm not a huge fan of Ignatieff's The Lesser Evil, but I think Rights Revolution: CBC Massey Lecture 2000, was one of the best books I've read.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:13 PM  

  • Ignatieff won't win because his name is too complicated to be marketable. You might think I'm being flippant, but think about it:

    Paul Martin
    Ralph Klein
    Dalton McGuinty
    Mike Harris..

    Simple winning names.

    Look at the list of Prime Ministers of Canada. They fall into two categories:
    1) Flowing French names
    - Trudeau
    - St. Laurent
    - Laurier

    2) Simple Names
    - MacDonald
    - Mackenzie King
    - Pearson
    - Borden
    - Deifenbaker
    - Mulroney
    - Martin

    .. nothing even close to "Ignatieff". Names that Joe Canadian has to slow down to read won't sell. This is the same reason "Bevilacqua" wouldn't work.

    Think about it.

    By Blogger Toronto Tory, at 5:50 PM  

  • All the choices suck.

    Cauchon's continued loyalty to Ajay is reason enough to doubt his judgement.

    I can't vote Ignatieff. I have this strange feeling that the leader of political party should live in the country she or he wants to lead.

    I'm hoping Wayne Easter is spending his time in the backbench learning French.

    I could vote for Wayne. He's a more believable Westerner than Harper.

    By Anonymous Displaced Western Liberal in Ottawa, at 8:03 PM  

  • TT:

    How the heck is Diefenbaker a simple name?

    With the candidates, there's nobody out there that seems good now, really, but I think when we do see a campaign we'll get a good vibe from one of them, be it Manley, Cauchon, Dion, or someone else, who will make us feel good to say we're Liberals again.

    By Blogger UWHabs, at 9:12 PM  

  • But which of these Liberal leader wannabes is best able to carry the Liberal political philosophy message to the people?? Who will be best listened to when he/she tells the clueless people of Canada what Liberals actually stand for ... other than governing with impunity???

    So it really all comes down to a marketing exercise. Which candidate has the highest "charisma quotient" and will have the max credibility when he/she utters something to the voters through the MSM filter???

    All the hopefuls mentioned by many just seem to be a tad short on glamour or that political chutzpah that separates the boys from the mensch ..... like Trudeau and Murloney did ... real machers from Quebec who caught the fancy of the masses eager for a leader to keep Canada united and bilingual too.

    I still come back to ... Jacko Layton ... the hottest political personality in Ottawa if not all of Canada. The guy has so much political capital invested in that pathetic loser NDP it makes me think that even he must feel the futility of his future ... slogging faux-socialism while trying to break through the 20% popularity barrier ... the guy is just wasting his cajones on that redundant rump of a party.

    Now if he and Paul had a meeting of minds to Unite the Left .... unless Jack made some silly promises to the contrary to somebody like Svend or Rebick or Buzz ... wait a minute ... Buzz could be the perfect catalyst to unite the Libs and NDP .... and then Canadian unions would have a powerful foothold in the New Liberal Party .. that's it folks ... you heard it here first .... How Paul and Jack will share power in Ottawa.

    Jack will look after domestic matters while Paul would enrich .. opps .... handle the globalized international interests that he and his many backers are betting on .... a perfect blending of Liberal and Socialist ideals for Canadians.

    The Conservatives might as well fold their shrinking political tent if the Libs and Dippers united the left under one flag .... (no not the Barbados flag of convenience .. more like the Canadian flag with the maple leaf recoloured green with a tinge of autumn orange ....) !!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:13 PM  

  • Toronto Tory, I think you might be confusing cause and effect with your name examples.

    Those surnames are the effect of these people having come from WASP or white French Catholic families, as opposed to strictly the simplicity/pleasantness of their names.

    By Anonymous Anonymous 9:46 AM, at 1:40 PM  

  • Simple winning names.

    What about Chretien? He won 3 elections.

    Campbell and Turner seem to be pretty straight forward as well.

    By Blogger daveberta, at 3:34 PM  

  • What about "Day", who can't say Day??

    By Blogger iloveLaP, at 4:58 PM  

  • Yeah, and Harper is an easy name...

    I just read Bill Johnson's book comparing him to Trudeau. Maybe if he switched to the Liberals, he could win? Just a thought...

    By Anonymous Brian, at 12:11 AM  

  • On the names front, I guess it is fair to say we've gone with simple first names: Paul, Jean, Kim, Brian, Joe, Pierre...Lester was a bit geeky but he did go by Mike. Doesn't bode well for Maurizio I guess...as for the person who said I was anti-Italian, I actually like Bevilacqua a lot but he's obviously in it for a Cabinet position...I doubt he could actually win.

    And Rock is a spent force. Too bad since he was a great guy but he just never lived up to the pottential.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:09 PM  

  • But isn't Brison queer???

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:45 AM  

  • Check out www.martincauchon.blogspot.com.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:54 AM  

  • Goodale, Goodale, Goodale.
    He:
    1)Is the Best Cabinet Minister in the Martin Cabinet.
    2) Cleaned up Public Works after the sponsorship scandal.
    3) Had a great budget before sponsorship blew up and forced Martin to sell out.
    4) He's from the West.
    5) He and David Herle worked together when Goodale was the Leader of the Provincal Liberals in Saskatchewan And
    6) He has more integrity than all of the other contenders combined.

    I am with Goodale.

    By Anonymous Mike from Regina, at 5:23 PM  

  • i had a chance to meet mr.cauchon at finally free and was pleased to meet him... he is young progressive, and as a gay young liberal let me remind you all that it was he who championed same sex marriage when certain western ministers were reticent... let us not forget also that it was mr.cauchon who brought in legislation to decriminalize marijuana... I ask what progressive legislation did the other mentioned potential leaders bring in... as for that east indian guy i thought he was cute... i wish belinda stronach was there i was so looking forward to seeing her...

    By Blogger atlantic_girl, at 11:29 AM  

  • I am taking the long bet on Ignatieff. In the three public speeches he has delivered in canada over the past six months, he has not only demonstrated more brainpower than any Canadian politician since Trudeau - he has also shown the sort of toughness and political savvy that a winning politician has to have.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:30 PM  

  • I am taking the long bet on Ignatieff. In the three public speeches he has delivered in canada over the past six months, he has not only demonstrated more brainpower than any Canadian politician since Trudeau - he has also shown the sort of toughness and political savvy that a winning politician has to have.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:30 PM  

  • I am taking the long bet on Ignatieff. In the three public speeches he has delivered in canada over the past six months, he has not only demonstrated more brainpower than any Canadian politician since Trudeau - he has also shown the sort of toughness and political savvy that a winning politician has to have.

    By Blogger Lafontaine, at 10:37 PM  

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  • The Liberal Party must first ask itself... where is going to pick up votes in the winter election of 2008 that we will surely be into after Ontario and Quebec finish in late 2007. The West... No chance. So forget trying to appeal to them. Ontario... I think those Ontarioans that were going to leave the Liberals and vote Conservative have done so. I think the Liberals need to see that this level of support in Ontario is their hardcore and it would take a MAJOR screw up to drop below the 55 seats they currently enjoy. Quebec... this is where, as always, the battle now rages. 10 Conservative seats are a beacon of federalist hope flickering in the long dark tunnel leading to the next referendum. The Liberals MUST MUST MUST bring those federalists back into the fold along social policy not economic grounds. The Maritimes... do nothing whinners. So the new leader must be able, specifically, to project and practice a passionate federalism coupled with NO TIES WHATSOEVER to the scandal plagued Chretien and the cynically elitest Martin crowds. So... who does that point to? Ignatieff and Tobin are suitably intriguing and passionate outsiders(in that order) while Cauchon and Brison are safer inside candidates with do nothing records. Brison is out for the aforementioned reasons. Ignatieff is boring to tears. So you have the organizer in Cauchon and the speech maker in Tobin. I say Cauchon by a hair.

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  • Many people know the importance of self confidence and try to boost their own by using many different personal development models. Self confidence to most people is the ability to feel at ease in most situations but low self confidence in many areas may be due to a lack of self esteem. Low self esteem takes a more subtle form that low self confidence. So if you are tired of feeling not good enough, afraid of moving towards your desires and goals, feel that no matter what you do it is just never good enough, then your self esteem could do with a boost.

    Every day we make decisions based on our level of self-esteem. We also exhibit that level of self esteem to those around us through our behaviour. 90% of all communication is non-verbal - it is not what you say but ho you say it that matters! Your body language, tonality and facial gestures can all tell a completely different story to your words. It is our behaviour which influences others and people react to us by reading our non-verbal communications. Have you ever met someone you just didn't like although on the surface they seemed polite and courteous, or you met someone who seemed to speak confidently yet you knew they were really frightened underneath and just displaying bravado?

    Parental and peer influences play a major part in moulding our level of self-esteem when we are children and in our early years of adolescence. The opinions of the people closest to us and how they reacted to us as individuals or part of the group was a dominant factor in the processes involved in forming our self esteem.

    As adults we tend to perpetuate these beliefs about ourselves and in the vast majority of cases they are ridiculously erroneous. It is time to re-evaluate our opinion of ourselves and come to some new conclusions about these old belief patterns.

    Ask yourself some serious question:
    Is your long-held view about yourself accurate? Do we respect the sources from which we derived these beliefs? Most of the negative feedback we bought into as we were growing up actually came from people we have little or no respect for and as adults we would probably laugh their comments away! Yet the damage to your self esteem was done when you were very young and you still carry it with you to this day.

    Is it possible that even those people you respected, who influenced your self-worth, were wrong? Perhaps they had low self esteem also.

    As adults we have the opportunity to reshape our self-esteem. Try to judge accurately the feedback you receive from people you respect. This process will allow you to deepen your understanding of yourself and expand your self-image. It will also show you were you actually need to change things about yourself and were you don't. Many people are striving to better themselves in areas where they are just fine or actually excelling and it is only because they have an inaccurate picture of themselves in their minds due to low self esteem!

    Setting small goals and achieving them will greatly boost your self-esteem. Identify your real weakness and strengths and begin a training program to better your inter-personal or professional skills. This will support you in your future big life goals and boost your self-esteem and self confidence to high levels you didn't existed!

    Learn to recognise what makes you feel good about yourself and do more of it. Everyone has certain things that they do which makes them feel worthwhile but people with low self esteem tend to belittle these feelings or ignore them.

    Take inventory of all the things that you have already accomplished in your life no matter how small they may seem. Recognise that you have made achievements in your life and remember all the positive things that you have done for yourself and others. Take a note of your failures and don't make excuses like "I'm just not good enough" or "I just knew that would happen to me", analyse the situation and prepare yourself better for the next time. If someone else created success, regardless of the obstacles, then you are capable of doing the same! Remember everyone has different strengths and weakness so do not judge your own performance against that of another just use them as inspiration and know that what one human being has achieved so can another!

    Surround yourself with people who respect you and want what is best for you - people who are honest about your strengths and will help you work through your weakness. Give the same level of support to them!

    Avoid people who continually undermine you or make you feel small. These people are just displaying very low self esteem. As your own self esteem grows you will find that you are no longer intimidated by another's self confidence or success and you can actually be joyful for them! Do things you love to do and that make you happy. A truly happy person never has low self esteem they are too busy enjoying life! By getting busy living your life with passion and joy you will not be able to be self-consciousness.

    If you find yourself feeling self-conscious in any situation focus on the fact that others can tell and many of them will be feeling the same. Be honest. People respond to someone better if they openly say "To tell you the truth I'm a bit nervous" rather than displaying bravo or fake confidence that they can see right through. Their reactions to you, will show your mind at a deep level, that there was actually nothing to be frightened of and everything is great. If someone reacts to this negatively they are just displaying low self esteem and very quickly you will find others noticing this! Really listen to people when they talk to you instead of running through all the negative things that could happen in your head or focusing on your lack of confidence. People respond to someone who is truly with them in the moment..

    Breath deeply and slow down. Don't rush to do things.

    Stop the negative talk! 'I'm no good at that' or "I couldn't possibly do that" are affirmations that support your lack of self esteem. Instead say "I have never done that before but I am willing to try" or "how best can I do that?". Which leads us to the last point - the quality of the questions you ask yourself s very important.
    When you ask a question it almost always has a preposition in it. For example, "How did I mess that up?" presumes that something was messed up, a better way of phrasing the question would be "what way can I fix this quickly?", as this presumes you can and will fix it. Or "How am I ever going to reach my goal?" could be rephrased as "what way will lead me to my goal quicker" presumes that you are going to reach your goal! Get the picture? Change the quality of your questions and your results will change!

    Practise these techniques and watch your self esteem rise day by day. self hypnosis

    By Blogger cylon, at 4:29 AM  

  • The personal development industry has never been bigger! It consists of a myriad of authors basically telling us how to improve our lives. We are constantly being told self help and self improvement has never been easier. New techniques, gadgets and potions adorn the shelves of new age shops and the 1 billion dollar industry, that is personal development, offers many different approaches to help better our lives. They offer ways to increase our bounty and ultimately alter our own reality. A great example of this is how to develop a Prosperity Consciousness. But does this state really exist and if it does will it bring the effortless unlimited wealth promised?
    A lot has been written about prosperity and how to attain it. We have been told by many religious traditions and every personal development guru that the Universersal Source (God, Spirit, Cosmic Mind or whatever label you chose to give it) is boundless wealth. We are also told that abundance, wealth and prosperity are our birthright! Why then are so many people ill, broke, frustrated and unfulfilled? Can a person really develop a prosperity consciousness and effortlessly attract wealth? Well as with everything in life there is only one way to find out. Test it for yourself!

    Before we can attain and then test the effectiveness of having a prosperity consciousness we need to understand some basic truths. Let's start by explaining three fundamentals of personal development namely; 1. The Universal Source is all wealth, abundance and prosperity; 2. Prosperity is our birthright; 3. You get more of what you focus on.

    1. Why are we told that the Universal Source is unlimited wealth? - Because the Universal Source is the consciousness of the Universe - a universe that is still expanding. It is the driving force behind physical reality. It created everything you see, hear, touch and smell as well as all that we are unaware of (microwaves, radiation, air etc.). It has been stated in religious and metaphysical traditions that this intelligence is not only the Source of everything but that it is also the substance of it! It creates the Universe from itself! It is omnipresent (everywhere present). That means that the entire seen and unseen aspects of the universe are a part of this Universal Source. Science reaffirms this theory as it states that nothing is solid and everything is just one mass of pure energy that vibrates at different frequencies and gives the illusion of separateness.
    So we can now claim that the Universal Source is unlimited wealth, abundance and prosperity with some belief. For if this Source is the very substance of everything then it is all the wealth, abundance and prosperity that exists at this very moment!
    Ok so far? Now lets look at the second point - prosperity is our birthright.

    2. If this Universal Intelligence is the source and substance of all things then there can be only one intelligence in the Universe. Jesus said to his disciples "know ye not that you are the temple of the living God?" Buddha attained enlightenment and "oneness". The list of these religious teachings are too numerous to mention but their message remains the same - God (Universal Substance) resides within and around us. It's very substance makes up our physical body and the world around us - "For in him we live, move and have our being" Acts17:28. Therefore, if this Universal Source is at the very core of our being and is the substance from which we take physical form then it stands to reason that we are connected to everyone else and in fact everything else around us - we are a part of all the wealth, abundance and prosperity of the universe. Just as your hand or foot is a part of your body, so every grain of sand, blade of grass, wisp of wind, bar of gold and brick that is laid in a mansion is part of you. The unlimited wealth of the universe is yours for the claiming. It is already yours, always has been and always will be. It is a part of you.
    Ok let's go the third point - you get more of what you focus on.

    3. "It never rains but it pours", is a saying I have used myself in the past. Have you ever wondered why such a statement appears to be true? Well metaphysics and religion tell us that "as a man thinketh in his heart, so is he" or as Job cried out to God "For that which I greatly feared has come upon me". What we focus our conscious attention on increases! Don't believe me? Test it for yourself! If you can muster up the strength to do it then think in negative terms for a week. Judge everything that happens to you in negative terms and think only of a negative outcome and watch what happens in your world!!! This is a relatively easy experiment as we are conditioned to think negatively by the world. A word of warning though - once you prove that your focus determines your reality stop thinking negative thoughts as best you can.
    I will not go into the 'hows' of why our focus has such a profound influence on our lives (that would be the subject of a book or perhaps a future article) just prove to yourself that it does. A clue can be found in the teachings of Jesus when he said "The Kingdom of heaven is within".
    So now we have the three principles of the prosperity consciousness explained let's put it to work. The attainment of a prosperity consciousness is relatively simple - just think on the first two principles until you fully understand them and integrate them into your consciousness. As you focus on them you will discover that your feelings of lack disappear and you begin to feel a connection with everything around you. It is really just an attitude shift - nothing metaphysical or mystical about it at all. You begin to consciously realize that everything is a part of you. Your focus changes from poverty to wealth.
    If it helps make a list of affirmations that correspond to the two principles outlined e.g. "God is the Source and substance of everything", "I am at one with everyone and everything around me", "I am a part of all the wealth, abundance and prosperity of the Universe" etc. Don't just rhyme them off in a parrot like manner, think on them and realize the scientific or spiritual truths behind them.

    Will it work? Well I can say now that if you follow the above instructions a real change will happen in you. You will start to see the beauty of the world and the unlimited resources that are available within and around you. Will you attain wealth, abundance and prosperity? Test it for yourself! subliminal

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