Wednesday, July 20, 2005

Long Live The King

Via Daveberta, comes this (troubling/frustrating/useless/glorious) news that Ralph Klein is planning to stay on until the fall of 2007.

With at least half a dozen leadership candidates vying for the cushiest political job in Canada, one imagines things are going to get very testy between the candidates if Ralph does decide to stick around for that long. And, as an Alberta Liberal, that's music to my ears.

I also suspect we're in for never-ending speculation about Ralph's true departure date. So, with that in mind, I'm pleased to launch the "Overstayed Welcome Pool". All you have to do is predict Ralph's departure date. Closest wins...well...nothing really, except the pride of knowing you are by far the greatest political pundit in Canada. And, remember, if Ralph tries to pull a Chretien, it's the date of departure, not the date of announced departure that matters.

So, enter one and all. Myself, I'm going to go for May 20th, 2006.

20 Comments:

  • December 15, 2005

    By Blogger robert mcbean, at 3:26 PM  

  • Though I had hoped we'd be rid of him by this winter, I don't think it's setting up for that to happen.

    If you use "Ralph Klein logic," you'll deduct that he he'll use his massive ego while making the decision of when to step down. Hence, it would fit his character to want to be the longest serving of the Tory Premiers in Alberta.

    So, assuming he isn't turfed a la Jean Chretien or Don Getty (which is still entirely possible), I would predict that he will try to beat the Lougheed record of 14 years, 1 month, and 21 days.

    That would make his date of retirement January 27, 2007.

    By Blogger daveberta, at 4:39 PM  

  • Hold on to your cowboy hat. Ted Morton is next and this Albertan is greatly relieved at that.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:08 PM  

  • I hope he lasts awhile. It gives more time for the seperatist movement to grow and organize.

    The next provincial election could be a doozy.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:16 PM  

  • Thursday July 21, 2005. Just kidding. Your date isn't bad CG, but how could he resist one final stampede as Premier? So, I pick 20 July, 2007.

    Anonymous, Ted Mortin will never become Premier, even if I have to buy a PC membership to vote against him. I suspect alot of progressive Albertan's would be willing to take such a preemptive attack! Seriously, the guy has zero chance and the seperatists need a lot more than time.

    By Blogger Manatee, at 5:59 PM  

  • Manatee said ...
    Anonymous, Ted Mortin will never become Premier, even if I have to buy a PC membership to vote against him. I suspect alot of progressive Albertan's would be willing to take such a preemptive attack! Seriously, the guy has zero chance and the seperatists need a lot more than time..

    Any candidate for the PC leadership who is seen to be signing up members from the "progressive" side of Alberta politics had better think twice. Both the Alberta Liberals and the NDP are seen by the large majority of Albertans as nothing more than wholly owned subsidiaries of their eastern based federal counterparts. Neither party is trusted to defend Alberta's interests in confederation. That is why these parties fair so poorly in Alberta politics.

    If progressive Albertans really want to change the scene in Alberta politics, they should join their own parties, jettison their inept leadership, and distance themselves from their parties' long history of sycophancy and subordination.

    I should remind you that the former Reform party had the most incredible grassroots political machine in Alberta politics. If Ted Morton can successfully win over the former Reform party membership, he has a very good chance of becoming Alberta's next premier.

    By Anonymous Abe from Alberta, at 9:15 PM  

  • "I should remind you that the former Reform party had the most incredible grassroots political machine in Alberta politics. If Ted Morton can successfully win over the former Reform party membership, he has a very good chance of becoming Alberta's next premier."

    That is a big if. I don't think the grassroots that contributed to the electoral success of the Reform party can be successfully harnessed by Morton provincially. Most conservative Albertan's do not feel the same resentment to the PC's (or Klein, or other leadership contenders) that they felt towards the Mulroney government and the federal Progressive COnservatives, thus mobilization will be more difficult. In fact, I imagine most conservative Albertan's feel well represented by the PC party as is. Some who don't might support Morton, but surely some will also seek representaion through membership in alternative parties on the right decreasing the likelyhood of his success.

    By Blogger Manatee, at 10:02 PM  

  • Abe,

    Get your facts straight before posting.

    Keving Taft, leader of the Alberta Liberals, got the most votes of all candidates running in our last provincial election. The Alberta Liberals swept several ridings and came within a few hundred votes in several others. That's not what I call "doing miserably".

    And the Alberta NDP has also been growing steadily.

    Abe, what you are spewing off is just wishful thinking on your part, eh? But educate yourself first, then post.

    By Anonymous calgary observer, at 10:51 PM  

  • Abe; The Liberals and NDP combined for close to 40% of the popular vote in the last election. That's not disastrous by any means.

    And I for one think Morton has a very good chance. Given 2-1 or 3-1 odds, I'd definitely put some money down on him.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:12 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger daveberta, at 11:25 PM  

  • Though he's not very charasmatic and I don't think the average Albertan (or average Tory in Alberta) is as right as Dr. Morton, I do think that he has the potential to be a force in the PC Leadership race.

    I don't think Jim Dinning has as much support as 8 years of behind the scenes organizing usually affords. He may have alot of cash, but he's part of the establishment 'Calgary Mafia' that has been ruling the PC's for 12 years.

    I think Mr. Dinning's Calgary establishment connections could be Dr. Morton's strength in the Leadership race, especially drawing support from rural Alberta.

    Perhaps Dr. Morton is to much of an intellectual to draw the rural Tory vote. I also think that Ed Stelmach will be a factor in the rural battle.

    (This is a prediction, and things change.)

    Rumour has it that the Rural Godfather himself, Mr. Ken Kowalski, has quitely thrown his support behind Mr. Stelmach's campaign...

    By Blogger daveberta, at 11:30 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Manatee, at 11:40 PM  

  • "And I for one think Morton has a very good chance. Given 2-1 or 3-1 odds, I'd definitely put some money down on him."

    I'd give you 3-1 on the condition that the bet is dropped if Manning opens his mouth like in 1992. Though I don't see Manning or Harper having the same effect next time around. (Actually, the stronger effect would be Klein coming out in favour of a candidate, and he doesn't seem to be a huge Morton guy.) Can anyone find a copy of the PC constitution? I can't find it on the PC website. I find leadership races so much easier to predict when I know the rules. on second thought I will reserve my bet until I read the rules. :)

    I especially don't like Morton's chances if the PC's have adjusted things so memberships can't be sold between the first ballot and subsequent ballots like 1992. It will basically be a Ted Morton versus a more mainstream candidate (my money is on Dinning), with most of the support from dropped candidates going to the mainstream candidate. I don't see Morton selling near as many memberships as Dinning, Norris, Oberg etc combined.

    "I also think that Ed Stelmach will be a factor in the rural battle."

    Anything is possible, I suppose. Stelmach is my MLA and I've seen him campaign. Frankly, he comes across as neither charismatic nor intelligent. I wouldn't have thought he would be much of a factor, he is not inspiring.

    By Blogger Manatee, at 11:50 PM  

  • April 15, 2007. Just after the year's budget is done and his capital plan is done for the decade (save for 1 yr). Get that Calgary Ring Road finished in time so it can one day be bequeathed as the Ralph P. Klein Trail. What a lovely thought. :oP

    By Blogger Canadian Perasma, at 2:05 AM  

  • A gift from the heart - February 14, 2006.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:09 AM  

  • I think that Ted has a decent chance, but at the end of the day he will not win. The difference between him and Dinning is that Dinning is cultivating ethnic contacts. Sure, Ted is trying to do that, but the chances of any ethnics going with the guy who hates the Charter are slim to none. Plus he has no kingmakers in the communities. Good luck Ted, and godspeed, and send my love to Bambi (he has to be the only far right Christian whose wife has a porn star name, good on ya Ted)

    By Blogger more anonymous than anonymous, at 11:10 AM  

  • Morton may be somewhat of a longshot. However, if the federal Libs run one more campaign pitting the rest of Canada against Alberta, or demonizing Alberta in any way, you could see enough of a backlash for Morton to ride his "Defend the West" horse to victory.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:06 PM  

  • Maybe, but I could see an "ABM" campaign happening with Morton, he is just too extreme for grassroots tories. I think the more likely scenerio is Ted finishes a strong 2nd or 3rd and is shown for what he truly is, the David Orchard of the provincial party, albeit with a slightly different political persepctive than David

    By Blogger more anonymous than anonymous, at 1:40 PM  

  • calgary observer said...

    Abe,

    Get your facts straight before posting.

    Keving Taft, leader of the Alberta Liberals, got the most votes of all candidates running in our last provincial election.


    So what? Kevin Taft is not running to be president of a neighborhood association in Edmonton Riverview; he's running for Premier. There are over 50 ridings in the Province of Alberta that would elect a fire hydrant over Kevin Taft in a head to head race.

    The Alberta Liberals swept several ridings and came within a few hundred votes in several others.

    The Tories "swept" many more ridings than the Liberals, regardless of how you define swept.

    Let's look at the close races. The Tories won 1 seat by 300 votes or less over a second place Liberal (Calgary-McCall). The Liberals won 4 seats by 300 votes or less over a second place Tory (Edmonton-Castle Downs, Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Manning, Edmonton-Meadowlark). If the Tories turn out their vote next time, these seats will be gone.

    That's not what I call "doing miserably".

    The Alberta Liberals received a total of 261,471 votes in 2004. This is lower than the total they received in 2001 (276,854), in 1997 (309,748), and at the beginning of the Chretien years in 1993 (392,899). The Alberta Liberals have lost approximately one third of their base in the last 10 years. Kevin Taft has less electoral appeal than Nancy MacBeth, or Grant Mitchell. He is viewed by Albertans as Ottawa's boy, and any Liberal leader that makes this mistake is doomed to fail in this province.

    And the Alberta NDP has also been growing steadily.

    No, they haven't. The NDP received 90,897 votes in 2004, 81,339 in 2001, 83,292 in 1997, and 108,883 in 1993. There is no real growth there at all. For a party that is supposed to represent "the working man", their numbers in blue collar rural Alberta are nothing short of a complete joke.

    Abe, what you are spewing off is just wishful thinking on your part, eh? But educate yourself first, then post.

    You should do likewise.

    calgarygrit said...

    Abe; The Liberals and NDP combined for close to 40% of the popular vote in the last election. That's not disastrous by any means.

    Yes, but that means the right of centre parties have a base of support in the neighborhood of 60%, which does spell victory for the right and defeat for the left for as far as the eye can see.

    Having said that, these figures aren't all that relevant in any event, given that the next premier will be chosen by activists, not the population as a whole. I was responding to Manatee's trial balloon where he indicated that progressives may join the PC's to thwart a Morton victory. That would not go over too well amongst the Alberta conservatives I know. We consider Ted Morton far less extreme than the f**king NDP.

    By Anonymous Abe from Alberta, at 11:40 PM  

  • Yo, Aberooni.

    Abe on Kevin Taft: "He is viewed by Albertans as Ottawa's boy, and any Liberal leader that makes this mistake is doomed to fail in this province."

    Well, seeing as how you apparently speak for ALL Albertans, how so?

    Kevin Taft is on the public record saying he's never ever been a member of the Federal Liberals.

    By Blogger daveberta, at 4:07 PM  

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