The Numbers

God bless pollsters for throwing some fodder to bloggers during the dog days of summer. Two polls came out this weekend which, while not overly surprising, are likely worth talking about (at least until Harper’s next trip to the tickle trunk).

Allan Gregg’s Saturday poll reconfirms what everyone has known for a long time. Mainly, Paul Martin and Stephen Harper are hugely unpopular. The numbers for each leader and whether Canadians’ opinions of them have improved or worsened are:

Martin 15-42
Harper 14-41
Layton 32-15
Ducceppe 17-17

When it comes down to a dump or keep vote, it’s similar:

Martin 48 (keep) -52 (resign)
Harper 41 – 59
Layton 78-22
BQ 76-24

More alarming is that fact that 37% of Conservatives and 20% of Liberals want to remove their own leader. Given that 76.2% wasn’t enough for Bernard Landry to stick with the PQ, it’s abundantly clear that both leaders are skating on thin ice. It also means that both will be very desperate come the next election campaign. Which could make the campaign kind of fun, or really sickening.


The second poll is on same sex marriage and it shows that 55% of Canadians believe the government should keep Same Sex Marriage while 39% believe they should repeal it. While the media is spinning this as a sign Harper needs to drop the issue, we should all remember that his party is well bellow 39% in the polls. So I fully expect the Conservatives to keep the issue alive during the next election campaign, even if it might scare a few NDP voters back to the Liberals.

In a related question, 46% said they favour gay adoption while 51% oppose it (presumably the same individuals who believe gays shouldn’t marry because they can’t have children).

There was also this tid-bit on Paul Martin’s biggest accomplishments:

When offered a list of options, 39 per cent chose same-sex marriage as the most notable achievement; 28 per cent picked the health-care accord. The tsunami relief effort was next at 14 per cent, while a series of preliminary daycare deals was chosen by 10 per cent of respondents.

However, when asked to think of an achievement without the prompting of a list, 60 per cent could not come up with one.

Personally, I’m a little surprised that the Health Care Accord fared so well. I know, I know – it’s difficult to get the provincial premiers to accept billions of dollars with next to no strings attached. And, in the words of Steve MacKinnon, it’s “courageous” to tell Quebec they don’t even have to meet those standards. But, if nothing else, the PMO will be pleased that it's not only Chretien legislation on Paul's achievements list.