Why Did the Chicken Cross the Road?
No, not that again. This will be serious.
There's a lot to be said about Belinda's shocking defection. Every post I've read has started with "I didn't see this coming". Say what you want about Belinda, but she knows how to grab a headline. After the initial shock, my first reaction was: "damn, why couldn't she have done this a few months ago. It would have made for a nice hospitality suite at the Liberal convention." But that got me thinking about the bizarre timing of this. Let's consider:
Fall 2003: Belinda sits Peter MacKay and Stephen Harper down and helps arrange a merger. Her reasoning? Canada needs a strong, moderate, Conservative Party.
Winter 2004: Belinda Stronach runs for leadership of the Conservative Party. Her reason? Canada needs a strong, moderate, Conservative Party.
June 2004: Belinda Stronach runs for Parliament and is elected as a member of the Conservative Party, under the leadership of Stephen Harper.
March 2005: Belinda throws a huge party at the Conservative convention, leading everyone to assume she's running for leadership.
May 10, 2005: Belinda Stronach votes non-confidence in Paul Martin's government.
May 17, 2005: Belinda Stronach joins Paul Martin's government.
This seriously just does not add up. It just seems odd that she would give up on the united right so quickly. Even though she never had a great chance at CPC leadership, I can't imagine Liberals ever backing her for Liberal leadership so I'm not sure this was about opportunism. I know she got a Cabinet spot, but she would have had one under a Harper government too. Maybe the Ontario polling numbers freaked her out or maybe sitting next to Stockwell Day every day just took its toll. She probably just felt she'd be more at home in the Martin Cabinet (and, as Paul Wells said, she likely will be. Lapierre, Dosanj, Brison, Stronach...we're not exactly attracting the bright lights from other parties).
As for political fallout...boy, we're in uncharted waters here. This is going to hurt Harper in Ontario and I'm sure he's having second thoughts about having an election now. In fact, I bet Steve is secretly hoping everyone's favourite media whore decides to vote with the government on Thursday. Also...I'm likely going to do a separate post on this later but although I disagreed with Jason Cherniak when he said it the other day, I think there's a legitimate chance that Stephen Harper will resign over the summer. Despite everything Harper has done to make the party look moderate, it's obvious that Canadians do not see them that way. This party would absolutely destroy Martin if they had Bernard Lord, Rona Ambrose or James Moore in charge. Even Peter MacKay would give them a moderate face at the helm. Harper has never lusted for power and he might realize that it's in his party's best interests to have a November leadership convention and then take out the Liberals next January.
There's a lot to be said about Belinda's shocking defection. Every post I've read has started with "I didn't see this coming". Say what you want about Belinda, but she knows how to grab a headline. After the initial shock, my first reaction was: "damn, why couldn't she have done this a few months ago. It would have made for a nice hospitality suite at the Liberal convention." But that got me thinking about the bizarre timing of this. Let's consider:
Fall 2003: Belinda sits Peter MacKay and Stephen Harper down and helps arrange a merger. Her reasoning? Canada needs a strong, moderate, Conservative Party.
Winter 2004: Belinda Stronach runs for leadership of the Conservative Party. Her reason? Canada needs a strong, moderate, Conservative Party.
June 2004: Belinda Stronach runs for Parliament and is elected as a member of the Conservative Party, under the leadership of Stephen Harper.
March 2005: Belinda throws a huge party at the Conservative convention, leading everyone to assume she's running for leadership.
May 10, 2005: Belinda Stronach votes non-confidence in Paul Martin's government.
May 17, 2005: Belinda Stronach joins Paul Martin's government.
This seriously just does not add up. It just seems odd that she would give up on the united right so quickly. Even though she never had a great chance at CPC leadership, I can't imagine Liberals ever backing her for Liberal leadership so I'm not sure this was about opportunism. I know she got a Cabinet spot, but she would have had one under a Harper government too. Maybe the Ontario polling numbers freaked her out or maybe sitting next to Stockwell Day every day just took its toll. She probably just felt she'd be more at home in the Martin Cabinet (and, as Paul Wells said, she likely will be. Lapierre, Dosanj, Brison, Stronach...we're not exactly attracting the bright lights from other parties).
As for political fallout...boy, we're in uncharted waters here. This is going to hurt Harper in Ontario and I'm sure he's having second thoughts about having an election now. In fact, I bet Steve is secretly hoping everyone's favourite media whore decides to vote with the government on Thursday. Also...I'm likely going to do a separate post on this later but although I disagreed with Jason Cherniak when he said it the other day, I think there's a legitimate chance that Stephen Harper will resign over the summer. Despite everything Harper has done to make the party look moderate, it's obvious that Canadians do not see them that way. This party would absolutely destroy Martin if they had Bernard Lord, Rona Ambrose or James Moore in charge. Even Peter MacKay would give them a moderate face at the helm. Harper has never lusted for power and he might realize that it's in his party's best interests to have a November leadership convention and then take out the Liberals next January.
posted by calgarygrit at
2:47 p.m.
21 Comments:
Wait wait wait. I thought David Kilgour was everyone's favourite media whore?
By
Anonymous, at 3:40 p.m.
Gee, I have to ask ... What happens when Stronach and McKay become leaders of their respective parties?
By
Anonymous, at 4:43 p.m.
The people of Aurora, Ontario, should sue Belinda Stronach for breach of contract. Let me explain why.
Belinda Stronach ran as a Conservative. Essentially she made an offer for a unilateral contract to the good people of Aurora (using contract terminology, her consideration was her promise to run as a Conservative), which the people of Aurora accepted by voting for her (their votes were their consideration under this contract).
Now, however, she is no longer a Conservative, but a Liberal. In fact, she has unilaterally changed a core term of the contract described above. The people of Aurora have therefore every right to sue her for breach of contract.
What this highlights is an urgent need for reform. MPs should not be allowed to switch sides, because each time they switch side, they defraud the very people who voted for them in the first place.
In addition to term limits and fixed election dates, we also need to reform this MP system. If an MP feels that he or she is more at home in another political party, that’s fine, but in the event, the MP must vacate his or her seat and a by-election must be held.
It is my view that this move proves once and for all that the Liberals have been trying to bribe Conservatives to switch sides. Remember? Just a few weeks ago, Paul Martin denied any such attempts. Reeling in Belinda now proves that these things have been going on.
I know Belinda’s father, Frank Stronach, and I know that he won’t be too pleased about his daughter’s unscrupulous and unprincipled moves in her attempt to grab power.
I love your "media whore" moniker, by the way! She is no asset to the Liberals, nor to any party now that she's shown that she is open to bribes and cannot be trusted.
By
Anonymous, at 5:49 p.m.
Magna stock was up sleightly at day's end.
Interesting point about Harper resigning. I think he might wait to see if the media will ever pay attention to the Gomery mess again, in which case more skeletons will come out of the closet.
Kroll & Associates, the forensic auditors will take the stand this week, but I think the media will transition from Belinda to the Queen.
Also, it is alleged that Belinda owes the conservatives over $380,000.
http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/news/shownews.jsp?content=n051753A
By
AWGB, at 5:58 p.m.
I agree with you that Harper's future as leader is in doubt. Today's defection amplifies his deficiencies in so many ways. I recall he mused about resigning last summer after the election. He has a track record of not sticking it out when things aren't going his way (recall his previous resignation from Parliament, way back when)...
By
Anonymous, at 6:02 p.m.
Sorry, Werner, but no - the "breach of contract" suit is a non-starter. No consideration - Belinda's promise to run is, if anything the consideration she gave up. The considertion given up by the citizens of Aurora was their vote, and you cannot contract to vote or not vote in a given way...
Interestingly, MPs used to resign and face a by-election if they were appointed to the cabinet. The theory being that by taking on cibinet responsibility (and the requirement for cabinet solidarity) you could no longer advocate for your constituents - they therefore had the right to determine if that was acceptable to them. Now, of course, cabinet appointment just means "hey, Gang! Now I can really bring home the pork!!" (obligatory jab - especially if you are a Liberal)
Cheers,
Dean
By
deaner, at 6:04 p.m.
Harper is definately in hot water. If he loses the vote on thursday, his political life is over. If he allows his Newfoundland MPs to vote for the budget, his political life is over. If he wins the vote on thursday but loses the election, his political life is over. If he wins a minority government his political life is dated. Lesson: don't make your power grab based on one poll!
www.manateeandgnomes.blogspot.com
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Manatee, at 6:08 p.m.
I would vote for a Westerner as Prime Minister, I just don't agree with Harper's principles. Anne McLellan, Jim Prentice are two names that come to mind that I would vote for. What the Conservatives need is a Westerner, as you say, who speaks for all Canadians.
By
Anonymous, at 6:22 p.m.
Sorry, deaner, but you will have to read up on Contract Law 101 (unilateral contracts, consideration).
Please note that "consideration" is used in a legal context and as a legal term, not as an everyday sort of term as employed by you.
By
Anonymous, at 7:28 p.m.
Werner.. I'm not sure I see the point of you travelling around to well-known Liberal/NDP and or progressive bloggers sites advocating this resign due to breach of contract position.. I dont know why you'd think you'd get much sympathy for your view... You'd get a more positive response at any one of the Blogging Tories sites.
There are many instances in British-style Parliamentary systems of MP's crossing the floor - as I mentioned in my reply to you at the Progressive Blogggers site, Winston Churchill crossed twice. Brison crossed the floor 2 years ago, and his constituents re-elected him... those to me are the ultimate judges on this decision - the same will be for Belinda.
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Oxford County Liberals, at 7:39 p.m.
Ah, Fintax.. the Conservative supporters are showing their true colours by all their virulent and derisive language today... this is how you're gonna win the election? Good luck.
Its amusing actually watching wingnuts heads explode at commentary sites like Coyne's... more entertainment for free then any fireworks show next weekend.
By
Oxford County Liberals, at 8:50 p.m.
Perhaps someone of a more Western persuasion might enlighten me as to the chances of Jim Prentice seeking the leadership of the Conservatives.
He's taken the moderate position on gay marriage, he's maintained a 10,000+ name Christmas card list, and he's remained behind the curtain and allowed others to fall upon their own swords.
I also have it on good authority that when Orchard approached him (first) he had enough integrity to tell him exactly where he could stick his votes (and I don't mean with MacKay, either.)
By
Anonymous, at 9:36 p.m.
Hi Matt,
Admittedly my law studies have been based on English law (the real common law system), and under English law, it's an offer for a unilateral contract, because acceptance is expressed by performing an act (voting), and the contract is complete once this act has been performed.
(cf. Carlill v Carbolic Smoke Ball Co., Errington v Errington, etc.)
By
Anonymous, at 10:17 p.m.
I was reminded today of a fact that not too many Canadians will remember:
Several years ago, neo-Nazi Jörg Haider from Austria visited Canada, and among other things, he went to see the Stronachs. Several of Haider's party members went on to work for Frank Stronach or were recruited for the Austrian government from Stronach's workforce.
One could draw all sorts of conclusions about where the Stronachs' affiliations lie, but it does not look good.
Was it really smart for Paul Martin to bring aboard a new Human Resources minister who may have ties to an extreme right wing part such as Austria's Freedom Party?
By
Anonymous, at 10:30 p.m.
Matt: The Liberals werent exactly kind to Kilgour leaving, I agree... but its nothing compared to comments the Tories are throwing at her...Being called a political whore and a dipstick and worse... these guys are showing their true mean-spiritedness they wish to impose upon Canada... apparently the American righ-wing smear tactics have been taught well... but I bet most Canadians wont stand for it.
Werner: I see you've joined the smear effort... I thought political scientists were supposed to be a tad more objective then that. But, suppose you're right about Frank Stronach.. do the sins of the father automatically get transferred unto the daughter? And what does it say about the Conservatives if they allowed her to get thru their vetting process? Either they didnt think it was an issue, or else they didnt care.. or their investigative skills suck.
I dont think the Austrian Freedom Party advocates same-sex marriage rights either... someone better tell Belinda that if she wants to keep her membership (sarcasm)
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Oxford County Liberals, at 11:00 p.m.
A premier from Western Canada?
Diefenbaker...OOPS the conservatives killed his leadership
Joe Clark? OOPS the conservatives killed his minority Government - he could have survived the vote that took him down but some in the party didn't even show up in commons that day.
How about Kim Campbell - well i guess conservatives don't like to talk of her.
we had a shot with stockwell day (lower case intentional)
Even the most hard-core right wing saw through that blunder before it got out of hand.
Gads If anyone thinks that having a PM from the west will help alleviate the fact that most of the votes are in Ontario - so most of the largess goes there too -they are out to lunch.
How about a cabinet that has a lot of westerners? Think Mulroney. Wow!, that was a resounding success for the west, nay, the whole country. A conservative government that tripled the deficit while selling the country to the Americans.
Oh, and remember the patent drug legislation that that wonderful, heavily western loaded, lot brought us. Even when every economists almost all said it would make health care costs skyrocket. Thanks to that conservative, west loaded, cabinet we have today’s health care crisis.
It’s got nothing to do with snubbing the west. It’s got to do with appeasing the majority of voters.
They are in the east.
Democracy sucks but it’s still the best system we have, and I’d hold ours up against any other government in the world.
Hell the bush (again, caps intentional) bunch in the states are way more corrupt than the Liberals could even dream of, and you would never ever see them hold an inquiry into their own corruption. They are masters of spinning it away into a vortex.
They are also training our conservatives on how to win and how to spin. That’s reassuring.
At least our government has the balls to let people see the skeletons in their closet.
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Anonymous, at 12:22 a.m.
Senator Catalyst; I can't for the life of me imagine any card carrying Liberals lining up behind Belinda for leadership. She can't give a speech without reading it word for word, can't speak french, would get killed in a debate or an open question session, and hasn't proven to be an overly bright or ambitious Parliamentarian.
I imagine any Liberals looking to support all-style, no-substance turncoats will back Scott Brison for leadership. Any Liberals looking to the right but wanting substance over style would take John Manley or Frank McKenna.
But, then again, in a party where Joe Volpe considers himself a legitimate leadership contender, I guess Belinda's got a shot.
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calgarygrit, at 12:52 a.m.
There's no smear effort. Common sense is the overriding principle here, and the conclusion is that Belinda is not the right member for any party, because she is two-timing and unreliable. That's the last thing we need in Canada (voter apathy is already very high).
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Anonymous, at 1:40 a.m.
Having found out about this only after coming home from working at a ballot location for the BC election all day, I had to face a bizarre truth: For the first time in living memory, National politics has become wierder than our provincial politics. Am I in bizarro-Canada?
This just makes no sense. Maybe Stronach will eventually give us more insight, but there have to be hidden depths to this story. And not of the crypto-mysogynist tinfoil hat brigade variety, either.
By
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